Florence, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

352
FXUS64 KHUN 151115
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
615 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 953 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

 - Medium to high rainfall chances return Saturday evening,
   allowing for up to 1-1.5" of rainfall throughout the Tennessee
   Valley.

 - Low chance of strong storms Saturday night into Sunday,
   bringing threats of gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Upper level ridging situated over the Red River region will build
a bit more to the NE today. This upper ridge along with broad
surface high pressure across the eastern CONUS will help maintain
dry conditions. Unlike the past few nights, most stations to some
extent have had a light wind in the overnight. This mixing despite
clear skies and long nights, has restricted most fog development
across the area. It however was occurring in some of the more wind
sheltered valleys, and near bodies of water. Area temperatures at
3 AM ranged from 50 to around 60.

There was little to no moisture evident via satellite or in area
forecast soundings, thus we should have another sunny day. With
direct solar insolation and somewhat higher heights, high
temperatures later today should rise into the lower 80s. Light
northerly winds will become N-NE at 5-10 mph. However like
yesterday, some higher gusts of 15-20 mph are possible as stronger
winds aloft mix to the surface.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday Night)
Issued at 953 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Another dry and seasonable night is in store Wednesday as
overnight lows are forecast to drop down into the low to mid 50s
under clear skies. By Thursday, high pressure still remains,
however, some model guidance indicates a weak backdoor cold front
nudging its way south and west along the Appalachians. There is
still quite a bit of uncertainty on how far south this feature
gets, but the good news is no significant impacts are expected.
While this front is not likely to cool us down very much, it will
bring in a reinforcement of drier air across our northeast AL
counties. Otherwise, dry weather continues on Thursday with
afternoon highs in the lower 80s.

As the upper level ridge shifts to the east on Friday, southerly
flow returns to the Tennessee Valley. Dry conditions continue,
but there will be an increase in the moisture with dewpoints
increasing into the lower 60s by Friday afternoon. This will also
bring back some cloud cover to the area, which will be a big
change after several blue sky days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 953 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Our primary concern through the long term period will be a
longwave trough axis and subsequent cold front pushing eastward
into the Tennessee Valley on Sunday. Ahead of this frontal
boundary, medium to high chances of showers and thunderstorms
will be possible as an influx of moisture moves in with the
assistance of southerly flow due to a sfc high pressure system
east of the TN Valley. Models continue to show limited
instability, however, sufficient shear for some potential strong
thunderstorm development. While severe weather is not forecast at
this time, storms will need to be monitored for potentially gusty
winds as well as heavy rainfall. PWATs are forecast to be in the
1.7-1.9" range, which is above the 90th percentile per BMX
sounding climatology. Heavy rainfall will likely cause ponding of
water in areas of poor drainage/on roadways. Be sure to use
caution if driving Saturday night. Storm total rainfall amounts
are currently forecast to be 1-1.5" throughout the area on
Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Sfc high pressure is forecast to push in behind the cold front,
forcing dry conditions to return to the Tennessee Valley early
next week. Highs behind the cold front (Sunday through mid week)
are forecast to reach the low to mid 70s with overnight lows
dropping into the mid 40s to 50s. This is considered more
seasonally normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Clear skies will continue across the greater Tennessee Valley, as
high pressure at the surface and aloft control the weather. Light
northerly winds should become N-NE, 5-10kt with some gusts of 15kt
this afternoon. Winds should diminish to around 5kt in the early
evening.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...RSB