Florence, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

990
FXUS64 KHUN 180535
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1135 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 922 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

Rain continues to overspread the Tennessee Valley from west to
east as a sfc low located over AR/MO pushes eastward tonight.
Observed 00z soundings from BMX and BNA indicate lots of dry air
from the sfc all the way up to around 14k ft. The rain will slowly
erode the dry layer, but it will take time. Hence, rain over the
next few hours should remain light until the column becomes fully
saturated. Only change on the evening update was to remove
thunder chances, otherwise the rest of the forecast appears on
track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 149 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

After sunrise, rain chances will decrease slightly to 40%-70% into
the early afternoon before exiting from west to east during the
late afternoon and evening. Saturday evening looks interesting as
any rain lingering after 9 PM could begin to see a rain/snow mix
or a change over to snow as much colder air begins to filter in.
Luckily, more of the precip will have exited by this time so our
southern middle Tennessee counties and far NE AL counties will be
the spots to watch if that does occur. Nothing more than a
localized dusting would be possible with that. Sunday will be the
transition day between the near 60 degree temps on Saturday to
highs not topping 30 degrees on Monday. That transition will be
accompanied by breezy northwest winds on Sunday with gusts to
20-25 mph which will make temps feel like the low to mid 20s.
Sunday night and Monday night will be the coldest nights so far
this winter with feels-like temperatures between -5 and 10
degrees areawide. A Cold Weather Advisory will likely be needed
Monday night into Tuesday morning which will be the coldest night
of this cold snap. If temps drop just a couple of degrees from
current forecast for this period, we may even need an Extreme Cold
Warning for portions of our area of responsibility. Take
precautions before Sunday if needed. This duration of very cold
temperatures will be dangerous to any pets outside, exposed pipes,
and any individuals who live or spend extended periods outdoors
without access to adequate heating.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Thursday)
Issued at 433 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

Models have been more consistent with a storm system developing
in the Gulf of Mexico early next week (Monday night through
Tuesday night). The trend continues to be that the surface low in
the Gulf forms in the southern Gulf of Mexico and moves E or ENE
during that period. This would keep any wintry precipitation
along Gulf coastal states and possibly as far north as extreme
southern Georgia/Alabama.

Mid/high clouds will likely make it north into central northern
Alabama well north of that storm system in the Gulf on Tuesday, so
it will have some indirect impact on our weather. Unfortunately,
the only thing it will do is limit the amount of sunshine and
heating we get on Tuesday. Though is should help to modify
dewpoints a tad (helping to keep overnight night lows Monday night
into Tuesday a bit warmer - mid teens), it will help to keep
highs on Tuesday below freezing in the upper 20s. So an extended
period of temperatures 32 or lower next week.

As the surface high shifts into the northeastern U.S. on Tuesday
night into Wednesday, winds should become very light and skies
should clear. This will setup an ideal radiational cooling setup
for the Tennessee Valley region. Thus, overnight lows will likely
drop lower into the single digits to lower teens again. Highs
might finally get above freezing briefly Wednesday afternoon with
abundant sunshine expected.

A continued slight warming trend is expect into the end of next
week. We could have another storm system move into the area and
bring some wintry precipitation. However, details are not clear
and vary widely with model output.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

VFR conditions will likely continue for a few more hours, before
CIGS lower and become MVFR with -RA. Some light to moderate RA
looks to affect both terminals between 12Z and 16Z with increased
forcing moving over the area. A tempo group for lower VSBYS (MVFR)
and CIGS (MVFR) were included to address this. Expect CIGS to
lower below 1000 feet with -SHRA after 18Z, as additional -SHRA
move over the terminals. These IFR CIGS will likely continue into
the evening hours.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....KG
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW