Fairhope, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for Fairhope AL
National Weather Service Forecast for:
Fairhope AL
Issued by: National Weather Service Mobile, AL |
Updated: 3:41 pm CST Jan 17, 2025 |
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Overnight
Showers
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Saturday
Chance Showers
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Saturday Night
Slight Chance Showers then Mostly Cloudy
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Sunday
Mostly Sunny
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Sunday Night
Mostly Clear and Blustery
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M.L.King Day
Sunny
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Monday Night
Mostly Cloudy
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Tuesday
Chance Wintry Mix then Wintry Mix Likely
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Tuesday Night
Chance Wintry Mix and Blustery then Slight Chance Snow
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Lo 60 °F |
Hi 66 °F |
Lo 42 °F |
Hi 50 °F |
Lo 22 °F |
Hi 39 °F |
Lo 23 °F |
Hi 36 °F |
Lo 22 °F |
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Overnight
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Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Steady temperature around 60. South wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. |
Saturday
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A chance of showers before 9am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9am and noon, then a chance of showers after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 66. Southwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. |
Saturday Night
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A 20 percent chance of showers before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. Southwest wind 5 to 15 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. |
Sunday
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Mostly sunny, with a high near 50. Northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. |
Sunday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 22. Blustery, with a north wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. |
M.L.King Day
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Sunny, with a high near 39. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. |
Monday Night
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Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. |
Tuesday
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Snow likely, possibly mixed with freezing rain and sleet, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. |
Tuesday Night
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A chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet before midnight, then a slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Blustery, with a north wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
Wednesday
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Sunny, with a high near 39. |
Wednesday Night
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Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. |
Thursday
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A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. |
Thursday Night
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A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. |
Friday
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Partly sunny, with a high near 50. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for Fairhope AL.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
768
FXUS64 KMOB 180527
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1127 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025
VFR conditions will drop to general MVFR as an area of light rain
moves over the area through the night into Saturday evening.
Southerly winds around 10 knots will shift to west and northwesterly
Saturday night as a cold front moves over the forecast area.
/16
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 601 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025/
..New AVIATION...
AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025
VFR conditions will slowly become MVFR tonight as rain moves in
from the west. Ceilings will first drop to MVFR around or just
before midnight from west to east followed by a period of MVFR
visbys during the early morning hours with the onset of rain.
Winds will be southeasterly becoming southwesterly to westerly
overnight. Some low level wind shear will be present mainly along
the highway 84 corridor where LLWS of 30 to 40 knots at 2kft at
roughly 200 degrees. LLWS tapers off as you approach the
coastline tonight. Rain will diminish by mid morning with only
light showers and MVFR ceilings remaining for the remainder of
the day tomorrow. BB-8
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 426 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025/
.New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday Night)
Issued at 426 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025
An upper level trough over the Texas panhandle area late this
afternoon will deamplify and move east into the southeast CONUS
tonight through Saturday. Accompanying surface low pressure and
associated cold front will sweep east across the southeast CONUS
during the day on Saturday as well. While we will be getting some
moderation of temperatures and dewpoints across our local area,
overall airmass recovery will be minimal. Expect showers and a few
embedded thunderstorms to move east across the area tonight (with
best chances after midnight, 80-90 percent) and through most of the
day on Saturday (although best rain chances on Saturday will likely
be in the morning hours with PoPs generally ranging from about 30-40
percent over interior zones to 50-60 percent southeastern and
coastal zones). The main forcing will be isentropic, and as such any
thunderstorm activity will most likely be elevated, but could be a
little more surface based near the coast. Strengthening warm-air
advection is anticipated this evening and overnight with the onshore
flow in advance of this system, but as mentioned instability is not
expected to increase that much across our area, with MUCAPE
generally remaining at or below 500 J/KG. A strong jet max
associated with the upper shortwave will be overspreading the
region, which will help promote an increase in buoyancy across the
area, but generally above the 900-850 MB level. Enough vertical lift
to support some thunderstorm activity is expected, but the elevated
character to the thunderstorms should limit the overall severe
potential and we are basically just looking at general thunderstorm
activity. As we move into Saturday night, PoPs will quickly be
ending west to east during the evening hours, and by the late
overnight hours rain chances generally end for all locations. Enjoy
the last warm temperatures for a while early this weekend, because
the much colder air will be on the way in the wake of this system.
Lows tonight will range from the upper 40s and lower 50s over inland
areas, mid and even a few upper 50s along the coast. Saturday high
temperatures will actually be fairly mild, ranging from the upper
60s to lower 70s across the entire area. The cool off begins
Saturday night, with lows ranging from the 30s west of the I-65
corridor, to the 40s east of the I-65 corridor over south central AL
as well as over the coastal counties of AL and the western FL
panhandle. We are expecting a high risk of rip currents along area
beaches from this evening through Saturday afternoon. DS/12
LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 426 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025
We continue to monitor an impactful period of bitterly cold
temperatures and potentially hazardous (to even dangerous) winter
weather next week across the local area. While the long-duration,
arctic airmass is pretty much a guarantee, uncertainty with the
winter weather potential continues to remain high.
Synoptics... Longwave troughing digs into the eastern half of the
CONUS through Wednesday. An embedded shortwave will round the base
of the longwave sometime on Tuesday and will eject northeastwards
Tuesday evening. At the surface, a cold front will have moved
through the area Saturday night. Behind it, a massive high pressure
system will help to send a very cold, arctic airmass into the
region. By late Monday night into Tuesday, a surface trough appears
to develop over the western Gulf in association with the shortwave
moving overhead. This trough will push very quickly to the east as
it attempts to organize into a low pressure system. The trough/low
will cross the Florida peninsula Tuesday evening and move into the
western Atlantic.
Dangerously cold temperatures... As mentioned above, we are
expecting a long duration, anomalously cold airmass to push into the
local region. Looking at anomalies, highs from Monday through
Wednesday look to be about 20 to 30 degrees colder than where we
should be for this time of year and lows from Sunday night through
Wednesday night are around 15 to 20 degrees below average. As a side
note, we are climatologically in the coldest period of the year, so
with anomalies this high, we are definitely going to get cold! The
coldest day looks to be on Tuesday (this coincides with the winter
precip potential) where highs may barely get above freezing for much
of the local area. Would not be surprised if these temperatures
decrease even further (due to wetbulb effects) if the winter weather
threat does materialize. Lows will be bitterly cold from Sunday
night through Wednesday night, with temperatures ranging from the
mid to upper teens over interior counties to the mid 20s closer to
the coast. These temperatures will result in a hard freeze across
the entire area (even along the coast). Factoring in winds, apparent
temperatures (wind chills) may be in the single digits to the lower
teens across the area. These values would support the issuance of
Extreme Cold Watches/Warnings across the area for apparent
temperatures below 10 degrees [15 degrees] for interior [coastal]
areas. It should be stressed, though, that regardless of if we hit
this criteria or not, it will still be dangerously cold for a long
duration for the northern Gulf Coast. We continue to urge residents
and visitors to make preparations to protect people, plants, pets,
and pipes from this cold weather. Temperatures should gradually warm
by the middle to latter part of the week.
Potential for winter weather... After dry conditions on Sunday and
Monday, there remains a potential for winter weather during the day
on Tuesday and into Tuesday evening. I can still see one of three
scenarios playing out for this event and I will once again describe
each scenario individually below:
Scenario 1 (the dry scenario): This scenario would be the `floor` of
the hazardous potential. The surface trough is too far south, or
does not form at all. Very dry air would remain in place, preventing
any precip from forming underneath it. At this point, this solution
is becoming less and less likely due to a vast majority of
deterministic and ensemble guidance now showing at least some sort
of QPF on Tuesday. Still do not want to rule this scenario out,
though, as a few ensemble members and one or two select
deterministic runs have still shown it, but it appears to be a
lowering possibility at the moment.
Scenario 2 (the all-snow scenario): I would still consider this
scenario to be `middle-of-the-road` in terms of hazardous
conditions, although impacts could range from a low-end snow event
to a high-end snow event. In this solution, the surface trough does
begin developing over the Gulf but does not fully develop into a low
until it passes the central part of the Florida peninsula and enters
the western Atlantic. Looking at modeled profiles, WAA will be
occurring around 700mb, but due to the quicker movement of the
synoptic features, it quickly cuts off by the early afternoon,
preventing a `warm nose` from developing aloft and keeping the
entire profile below freezing. This would support a snow-only event
across the area. Now with the dendritic growth zone being saturated
and surface temperatures being quite cold, some areas could see
higher-end amounts of snowfall which could lead to a rather
impactful event. In fact, ensembles paint a roughly 10-30 percent
chance that snow accumulations could exceed 2 inches in some spots.
Of course, we are still four days away, so these probabilities will
likely change over the next couple days.
Scenario 3 (the mixed precip-type scenario): This scenario would be
the `ceiling` of the hazardous potential. In this solution, the
surface trough does manage to evolve into a low prior to crossing
the northern part of the Florida peninsula. This solution is also a
bit slower with onset and exit of precip. Looking at modeled
profiles, the slower movement of synoptic features keeps the 700mb
WAA regime in place long enough to create a warm nose aloft (this
warm nose would be weaker and less evident the further north you
go). Some surface heating may also take place prior to the onset of
precip, which could bring surface temperatures a little above
freezing along coastal counties. Therefore, this scenario would
favor a rain to snow transition across the area, with snow in the
northern counties, rain offshore, and a zone of freezing rain/sleet
across our southern counties. Where exactly the bounds of this zone
sets up and where the heaviest accumulations would occur are unknown
at this time, but if this scenario does pan out, then an
accumulation of snow and ice would be expected. It should be noted
that some higher amounts of ice accumulation could become realized
which is why this solution would be considered the `ceiling`. It
should also be noted that guidance has been trending closer to this
solution over recent runs. 00z ensembles painted only around a 5-10%
chance of seeing freezing rain accumulation values greater than a
tenth of an inch. 12z ensembles have increased to around 15-25%
chance.
We will monitor these scenarios very closely over the coming days
The current forecast generally follows scenario 2, but with an added
mention of freezing rain and sleet over our coastal counties to
factor in the increasing possibility of scenario 3. We will likely
be making changes over the coming days as higher-res models begin to
come in range. /96
MARINE...
Issued at 426 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025
An increasing southeast to south flow tonight becoming more
southwesterly to westerly on Saturday as a cold front moves across
the marine area. SCEC and SCA conditions are expected over the
marine area as the front approaches. After a brief subsidence of
winds and seas, a strong offshore flow develops with by Saturday
night in the wake of the front and then continues through the
early part of next week. This offshore flow will be strong enough
to warrant SCA conditions over most, if not all of the marine area
during the early part of next week. DS/12
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Saturday for GMZ670-675.
&&
$$
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www.weather.gov/mob
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