Dothan, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

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Weather Forecast Discussion

754
FXUS62 KTAE 141836
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
236 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect through this afternoon for
  much of Southern Georgia and North Florida. Warm low
  temperatures will not provide much overnight relief from the
  daytime heat.

- There is a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk of severe weather this
  afternoon and evening in portions of Southwest Georgia.
  Isolated damaging winds are possible, in addition to dangerous
  lightning.

- A High Risk of rip currents is forecast to continue through
  tonight. It is strongly discouraged to enter the surf on high
  risk days. Please heed the beach flags and advice of local
  officials.

- The potential for heavy rainfall will exist from Monday through
  Wednesday, especially in Southeast Alabama and Southwest
  Georgia.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Monday) Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Jun 14
2026

The threats of hazardous heat and thunderstorms should gradually
diminish after sunset. However, unseasonably warm overnight
temperatures will not provide much relief. We are looking at
widespread mid 70s away from the immediate coast.

For tomorrow, attention turns to waves of eastward moving
thunderstorms with embedded heavy rain ahead of an approaching
frontal boundary from the NW. A richly moist airmass will support
high convective coverage capable of producing localized flooding,
frequent lightning, and strong-gusty winds. The former is
especially applicable to the Wiregrass and Flint River Valley
where a WPC Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) is in place for the Day 2
Excessive Rainfall Outlook. Any training and/or backbuilding
storms will further enhance flood potential.

The greatest rain chances (~65-85%) are along/north of I-10 from
late morning through the afternoon. Forcing from the front is
likely to keep convection lingering into the evening despite the
loss of daytime heating. High temperatures are forecast to range
from the upper 80s to low 90s with peak heat indices between the
mid 90s and low 100s. Lower rain potential along the coast makes
the beaches an attractive outdoor option, but stay cognizant
regarding rip current risks if visiting on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Jun
14 2026

The wet pattern continues through much of the work week thanks to
the expected lingering presence of a stagnant frontal boundary
attendant to a broad northern stream upper trough. Further
complicating matters is the potential for a slug of tropical
moisture lifting north from the East-Central Gulf Coast and
interacting with the front along the Lower MS Valley mid to late
week. Rain chances are therefore high nearly areawide for the
remainder of the long-term period. Flooding is likely to be the
primary concern. Widespread highs in the 80s are forecast Tuesday
and Wednesday as cloud cover increases amidst rain-cooled air.
Readings increase to the upper 80s-low 90s from Thursday into next
weekend. Overnight lows in the 70s will remain common.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Scattered TSRA is beginning to develop near the terminals, and
will likely continue through the afternoon hours. The highest
chances are from ECP-ABY eastward, where prevailing VCTS with
TEMPO TSRA have been included. DHN has PROB30s as the TSRA is
develop just east of the terminal, moving east. Gusty, erratic
winds and frequent lightning are possible with the strongest
storms. SHRA/TSRA should wind down after 00z near the terminals.
Patchy fog is possible tonight in areas that receive rain, but
confidence is too low to include in the TAFs. TSRA looks to get an
early start Monday, so have included VCTS near the end of the
period for ECP, DHN, and TLH.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Gentle to moderate west to southwest breezes prevail the next few
days with surface high pressure anchored across the Central Gulf.
Daily afternoon seabreezes may occasionally freshen onshore flow
across the nearshore legs and bay waters. The highest forecast
rain chances are currently Tuesday and Wednesday when a frontal
boundary sags into the Deep South. Maritime convection will pose a
gusty wind, frequent lightning, a waterspout threat. Winds turn
more southerly mid to late week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

The main fire concerns today and tomorrow are hot temperatures,
pockets of high afternoon dispersions, and scattered to numerous
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The latter will pose
lightning and gusty-erratic wind hazards. An increasingly wetter
pattern takes shape early this upcoming work week when a stagnant
front sags south. High rain chances are forecast with wetting
rains likely. West to SW winds prevail in addition to daily
afternoon seabreezes.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Locally heavy downpours are expected within any showers and
storms that develop this afternoon.

For Monday through Wednesday, a marginal to slight to risk of
flash flooding continues to be a concern, mainly across the
western and northern halves of the area. A slow moving frontal
boundary coupled with high preciptable water values is expected to
result in multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms with
locally heavy rain. The western portions of the forecast area have
already been especially wet from rainfall in May and are much
more vulnerable to flash flooding than the eastern portions of the
forecast area. Significant riverine flooding is currently not
expected.

The latest local CAMs show a reasonable 2-day worst case of about
3 inches with isolated spots of 4 to 5+ inches. A similar picture
is painted by the 12Z HREF. Current flash flood guidance shows
~2.5-4.5 inches of rain in 1 hr and ~3-6 inches of rain in 3 hrs
are required to produce flash flooding. These thresholds are lower
north and NW of the FL state line.

In the meantime, it`s been a very dry start to June for some
areas. The Tallahassee area is currently tied for the 2nd driest
start to June on record with only 0.02 inches of rain so far at
the airport through the first 13 days of the month. Severe to
exceptional drought continues for areas generally east of the
Apalachicola and Flint Rivers as these areas missed out on the
most beneficial recent rains. However, there is optimism on
upcoming rainfall the next several days helping with drought
improvement. The drought features long term impacts that are
affecting rivers, lakes, and ponds that are still below normal
despite recent rains.

For more information on local drought impacts, please visit
www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement.

For more local drought information & statements, visit the
following websites:
weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought
weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   74  91  73  86 /  10  70  30  70
Panama City   78  87  76  84 /   0  20  20  70
Dothan        75  89  72  80 /  10  80  40  90
Albany        75  90  72  83 /  20  80  70  90
Valdosta      75  92  73  88 /  20  80  70  80
Cross City    76  92  74  90 /  10  10  10  50
Apalachicola  78  89  78  87 /   0  10  10  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ009>019-027>029-034-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-426.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for GAZ155>161.

AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...DVD/IG3