Chelsea, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

647
FXUS64 KBMX 140005
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
705 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025

Scattered showers and storms began developing slightly earlier than
expected today which is more evidence that it won`t take much
synoptic support to help initiate storms given the moist and
unstable environment out there. A subtle mid-level shortwave
embedded within the larger-scale troughing over the ArkLaTex is
rotating from the Mississippi Valley towards the Ohio Valley
producing PVA and enhancing lift across the area. Latest CAMs are
still resolving a broken line of storms which will develop in
Mississippi and move across Central Alabama during the mid to late
afternoon. This clustered activity could pose a Marginal severe
risk of damaging wind gusts, but it`s becoming more conditional as
the storms across the area currently will begin to cold pool and
stabilize the environment. Nonetheless, a passing shower or storm
looks like a given for many locations today, especially those
across the northwestern half of the area.

The activity will begin to diminish this evening, but a similar
situation looks to occur tomorrow as the mid-level trough begins to
shift east across the Ozarks and towards the Ohio Valley. Expect
more rounds of passing showers and storms, primarily during the
afternoon. Nothing looks particularly organized, but a few strong
storms may develop.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025

No significant changes were needed from the previous forecast and
the discussion remains valid. An active weather pattern will
continue through much of the upcoming week with diurnally driven
thunderstorm activity, with synoptic forcing supporting higher than
typical coverage each afternoon/evening. Heat indices will start
creeping up, especially Tuesday through Thursday, so we may start
seeing some heat impacts to vulnerable populations towards the end
of the week.

25/Owen

Previous long-term discussion:
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025

Diurnally-driven numerous to widespread showers and storms will
remain in the forecast through early next week. Central Alabama
will be wedged in between a persistent 500mb weakness to the
northwest and 594 decameter ridge just off the Florida Atlantic
coast. 700 to 500mb flow is expected to become westerly for a
short period of time on Sunday as the mid to upper level trough
axis swings eastward over the Deep South. Another mid to upper
level disturbance is expected to dive southeastward into Arkansas
by Sunday evening, providing additional synoptic lift for shower
and storm development. The most widespread storm development
initially may end up being over central and southern Mississippi
Sunday afternoon, where the best available 1000-500mb moisture
will reside. These storms will likely push eastward into Central
Alabama by the late afternoon and evening hours, aided by outflow
boundary interactions. High temperatures on Sunday should remain
muted due to the more widespread clouds and convective activity in
the mid to upper 80s, but conditions will remain very muggy due to
the tropical air mass. We`ll continue to watch for heavy rainfall
producers as PWATs remain well over 2 inches.

Elevated rain and storm chances will continue through Tuesday of
next week, as the mid-level weakness remains to our west/northwest.
Just when we thought a clear indication of a much warmer pattern
was starting to evolve by the end of next week, there are now
signals of a stronger longwave trough developing over the midwest
and into the Great Lakes by Thursday. Our hotter pattern could be
delayed until a bit later into the month, as enough upper level
support would send a cool front our direction by next Friday.
We`ve got a ways to go to see if that solution verifies, but
immediately following by next weekend the 500mb heat ridge is
advertised to develop in the vicinity of the southern Plains
States according to global guidance.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 656 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025

VFR conditions are expected generally for this evening. Diurnal
convection is tapering down/moving EWD out of the area for the
night. Only have a brief SHRA mention in the NE sites for a couple
of hours. Have a mention at MVFR conditions possible after 10z
(cigs/vis) and could last as late as 15z before conditions would
go VFR. During that timeframe could see a small window of IFR cigs
as well around sunrise. More afternoon diurnal convection is
possible for all on Sat, with the best chances in the afternoon.

NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until
further notice due to comms issues.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MinRH values are forecast to remain above 50 percent for the next
several days as very moist air mass moves northward over the Deep
South. Daily rain chances will remain elevated as well. 20 ft
winds from the south to southwest should remain less than 7 mph
through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     69  85  67  86 /  60  80  70  70
Anniston    71  85  70  86 /  60  80  60  70
Birmingham  71  85  70  87 /  40  80  60  70
Tuscaloosa  72  86  71  87 /  20  80  60  70
Calera      71  85  70  85 /  20  80  60  70
Auburn      73  85  71  86 /  50  80  50  70
Montgomery  72  88  70  87 /  20  80  50  80
Troy        73  88  70  88 /  30  80  40  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86/Martin
LONG TERM....25/Owen/56/GDG
AVIATION...08