ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 100711

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0211 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as
   strong southwesterly flow and troughing move onshore in the West. A
   lee low and surface trough will aide strong southerly winds over
   much of the Great Plains, while a cutoff low and cool/wet conditions
   persist to the east. Several hours of dry and breezy conditions will
   support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather potential
   over the Plains Sunday.

   ...Northern Plains and Midwest...
   As the ridge over the northern US shifts eastward, stronger flow
   aloft will overspread the Rockies deepening the lee trough. A broad
   surface cyclone should emerge, aiding in strong southerly winds over
   much of the Plains. Sustained at 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph,
   winds will overlap with temperatures 20-30F degrees above normal.
   Several hours of lower RH below 30% is expected. This should support
   widespread elevated fire-weather conditions from NE and the Dakotas
   to western MN and parts of IA.

   Near-critical conditions may also occur where the stronger winds
   interact with areas of locally lower RH and drier fuels for several
   hours Sunday afternoon. This appears most probable over parts of
   western MN and central NE. However, confidence in widespread
   sustained critical conditions is lower owing to marginal RH values.
   No critical areas were added, though this may change in subsequent
   outlooks with updated guidance.

   ..Lyons.. 05/10/2025

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 092200

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0500 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025

   Valid 111200Z - 171200Z

   An upper-level trough will slowly translate eastward from the
   Pacific Northwest into the Intermountain West through the middle of
   next week, while a cutoff low across the Deep South will gradually
   shift eastward bringing widespread, heavy rainfall to much of the
   Southeastern U.S. The upper-level trough will bring  a range of fire
   weather impacts to much of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on
   Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday with eventual very warm, dry and
   breezy conditions returning to the Southwest next week.

   ...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest...
   The approach of the upper-level trough and associated warming will
   result in temperatures 20-30F degrees above normal across portions
   of the Dakotas Day 3/4 - Sunday/Monday. The cutoff low across the
   Southeast will inhibit low-level moisture return to the Northern
   Plains region early next week allowing stronger southerly winds
   combined with dry fuels and low relative humidity will allow for a
   elevated, possibly critical fire weather threat across the region.

   ...Great Basin to Southwest...
   A strong mid-level jet rounding the base of the slow moving
   upper-trough will bring a multi-day fire weather threat to portions
   of the Southwest beginning Day 4/Monday, potentially into Day
   7/Thursday. Warm, dry and windy conditions are expected to set up
   across the Great Basin Day 3/4 - Sunday/Monday but fuels are not yet
   receptive with green-up occurring across the region. Dry fuels
   remain across portions of southeastern Arizona and southwestern New
   Mexico where highest fire weather concern exists for Day 5/Tuesday
   into Day 6/Wednesday as a strong mid-level jet enters the region. 40
   percent critical probabilities were introduced given higher forecast
   confidence.

   ..Williams.. 05/09/2025