|
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 290650
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
WYOMING...
...Synopsis...
Broad upper ridging will overspread the CONUS today, with an
embedded mid-level impulse poised to traverse the Interior West
through the Day 1 period. Surface troughing will become established
across portions of the High Plains, resulting in dry westerly
surface flow. By afternoon peak heating, RH may drop to or below 15
percent from the eastern Great Basin into the central/southern
Rockies and High Plains regions. 15+ mph sustained southwesterly
surface winds may develop across the Interior West, with westerly
winds expected over Wyoming, and west-northwesterly surface flow
likely over the High Plains, warranting widespread Elevated
highlights given dry fuels. Portions of eastern Wyoming may
experience periods of sustained westerly surface winds exceeding 20
mph amid 10-15 percent RH, with Critical highlights maintained.
Farther to the southwest across southern Arizona, the approach of a
subtle mid-level impulse from Mexico, amid scant buoyancy, may
support isolated thunderstorm development by afternoon. Given the
presence of a deep, dry boundary layer extending to nearly 500 mb,
most of the rain from storms should evaporate before reaching the
surface, with lightning potentially occurring within dry fuel beds.
Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been maintained for this
scenario.
Across portions of the central Appalachians, 10-15 mph sustained
southerly winds, amid a plume of low-level dry air (yielding RH
potentially below 25 percent in spots), will support appreciable
wildfire-spread potential given dry fuels. Elevated highlights
remain in place for these conditions as well.
..Squitieri.. 03/29/2026
|
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 290708
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WYOMING...
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will persist across the CONUS tomorrow (Monday). An
embedded impulse will traverse the northern Rockies, supporting the
development and eastward progression of a surface low over the
northern Plains. The combination of gradient and dry downslope flow
across the central Rockies into the High Plains will yield Elevated
conditions by Monday afternoon. At least 15 mph sustained westerly
surface winds will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for several hours.
Wind will be regionally stronger across much of Wyoming (i.e. 25 mph
in several locales), suggesting the need for Critical highlights.
Isolated dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of
central Arizona into far western New Mexico, where the approach of a
mid-level impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development
atop a mixed boundary layer and dry fuels.
..Squitieri.. 03/29/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 282143
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0443 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
...Synopsis...
Model guidance continues to suggest a more active upper-level wave
pattern emerging next week across the CONUS, ushering in
opportunities for much needed precipitation across the western U.S.
and portions of the Plains where fuels remain very dry. An embedded
mid-level trough moving through the Northern Rockies and surface lee
troughing across the Plains will present a broad fire weather
concern for D3/Monday across portions of the eastern UT into WY and
along the central and southern High Plains. The overall fire weather
threat becomes more confined to portions of the Southwest as cooler
temperatures and precipitation gradually reduce fire weather
concerns across much of the contiguous U.S., as a deeper upper-level
trough moves into the Northwest mid to late next week.
...Day 3/Monday...
...Eastern UT/Western CO, WY and Central/Southern High Plains...
An embedded mid-level short wave trough moving through the Northern
Rockies along with deepening surface lee troughing across the
central/northern Plains will support a dry, downslope enhanced
regime across much of the central and southern High Plains on
D3/Monday. 70% critical probabilities were added across portions of
central and eastern WY with strong west winds of at least 20-30 mph
and low relative humidity align with dry fuels. Dry downslope
westerly flow should encompass much of the central and southern High
Plains Monday as a dry, well-mixed boundary layer evolves while
increasing Gulf moisture makes a return across much of the eastern
U.S. 40% critical probabilities were added to much of the central
and southern High Plains with very dry fuels in place and above
normal temperatures persisting through early next week.
...Eastern Arizona and Western NM...
Influx of mid and upper-level moisture from Baja California along
with daytime instability should lead to a few thunderstorms mainly
over higher terrain within a relatively weak shear environment. A
dry, sub-cloud layer will inhibit significant rainfall across the
region with some ignition potential in dry fuels.
...Day 4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday - Southern High Plains...
Increasing westerly flow aloft and lee surface troughing across the
Southern High Plains should support dry and breezy conditions across
portions of eastern NM and the TX Panhandle on D4/Tuesday. A 40%
critical area was introduced given receptive fuels remain in place.
A more pronounced mid-level short wave trough and associated jet
could bring additional fire weather impacts to the Southern High
Plains D5/Wednesday. Some uncertainty exists particularly across
northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle in timing of short wave and
related surface cold front passage. Introduced 40% critical
probabilities for southeastern NM and far west TX, but could be
expanded northward in subsequent outlooks as new model guidance
becomes available.
..Williams.. 03/28/2026
|
|
