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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 181642
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026
Valid 181700Z - 191200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWESTERN KS...
...Central/southern Plains...
Only minor changes were made for this forecast update. A dry, post
frontal air mass filtering into the Central Plains within a
favorable downslope regime has contributed to surface dewpoints
falling into the 15-20 F range across the high plains of CO
southwestern NE and western KS. Deep layer northwesterly flow and
boundary layer mixing should allow for northwest winds of 15-25 mph
to develop across portions of NE into northwestern KS. Critical fire
weather highlights were expanded southward where forecast model
guidance and surface observation trends indicate a corridor of lower
relative humidity around 15% by this afternoon.
...Southeast and Mid Atlantic...
Southwest winds will increase across the Southeast and Mid Atlantic
region ahead of an approaching upper-level trough and associated
surface cold front. A lingering dry air mass resulting in minimum RH
ranging from 25-30% by mid afternoon combined with southwest winds
of around 10 mph (locally 15 mph) and exceptionally dry fuels will
support a broad region of Elevated fire weather conditions.
Thunderstorms are likely along the eastward advancing cold front
later today and through tonight across the Appalachians. Although a
limited dry thunderstorm environment will be present, with
precipitable water values above 1.0" and a relatively moist boundary
layer, some lightning ignitions are possible given the receptive
fuelscape.
..Williams.. 04/18/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026/
...Synopsis...
An amplified upper trough will move towards the upper Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley as temporary upper ridging builds over the West. In
the wake of the upper trough, a post-frontal dry airmass and
northwesterly flow will promote widespread fire weather conditions
across portions of the central and southern Plains. Enhanced
southwest winds ahead of an eastward progressing cold front will
pose an Elevated fire weather threat across parts of the Southeast
and Mid-Atlantic.
...Central/southern Plains...
Within a post-frontal environment, northwesterly winds of 15-20 mph
and RH of 15-25 percent over dry fuels will pose an Elevated fire
weather threat for portions of the central and southern Plains this
afternoon. A confined region of northwesterly winds of up to 25 mph
and gusts over 30 mph are expected in central/western Nebraska.
Despite model guidance indicating daytime RH to remain above 15
percent within this region, strong winds atop recently receptive
fuels and expected 90th-95th percentile ERCs will promote Critical
fire weather concerns.
...Southeast/Mid-Atlantic...
Increasing southwest flow ahead of an advancing cold front coupled
with the lack of appreciable moisture return from the Gulf and
resultant low RH will promote an Elevated fire weather threat across
much of the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic. At peak heating,
widespread RH of 20-30 percent will combine with southwesterly winds
of 10-15 mph atop receptive fuels. Thunderstorms are expected to
form along/ahead of the approaching cold front in the
southern/central Appalachians late afternoon into the overnight
hours. With relatively minimal precipitation (less than 0.25")
expected on eastern slopes of the Appalachians towards the Piedmont
Plateau, the potential exists for lightning ignitions. Given a
continuous environment of above normal temperatures and
exceptionally dry fuels, there is a concern for increased spread
potential of any existing and new ignitions.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 181918
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...Central and Southern Plains...
A subtle mid-level short wave embedded in broader, but modest
northwest flow aloft will move into the Central/Southern Rockies,
with a subsequent lee surface trough emerging across eastern CO on
Sunday. Resultant south/southwest winds of 15-25 mph will evolve
across the Southern Plains within a very dry air mass, promoting
elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Single digit RH values
are likely across eastern CO but stronger winds around 25 mph will
be displaced to the southeast across southwest KS and the TX/OK
Panhandles where RH could fall to as low as 10% during peak
afternoon heating after poor overnight recoveries. Critical fire
weather highlights were expanded into northeastern NM based on
latest forecast guidance suggesting a higher likelihood of sustained
south winds of around 20 mph. Elevated highlights were also
introduced in leeward locations of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
where enhanced downslope westerly winds approaching 20 mph, relative
humidity around 15% and dry fuels align.
...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic...
Dry and breezy post-frontal flow is still expected to bring elevated
fire weather concerns for portions of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic
Sunday. Rainfall associated with a cold front will be limited across
the Piedmont region tonight into Sunday, allowing very receptive
fuels to persist. Northwest winds of 10-15 mph and RH of 20-30% are
expected during the day despite cloud cover, with RH in some
downslope favored areas adjacent to the Appalachians falling to
around 15% by Sunday afternoon. An elevated fire weather threat will
likely linger into the evening hours closer to the northern Gulf
Coast. Elevated highlights have been extended southward into the
Florida Panhandle where exceptional drought and very dry fuels
persist.
..Williams.. 04/18/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging across the West will slide eastward over the
Continental Divide as an amplified large-scale trough will traverse
the eastern U.S. on Sunday. Broad northwest flow will prevail over
the High Plains as surface high pressure shifts east and lee surface
troughing enhances fire weather concerns over the southern Plains.
Beneath the aforementioned trough, an associated cold front will
advance off the Eastern Seaboard as a dry and breezy post-frontal
airmass will pose an elevated fire weather threat across much of the
Piedmont and Southeast.
...Central/southern Plains...
Dry return flow and lee surface troughing will result in continued
Elevated and Critical fire weather conditions on Sunday. A
combination of south-southwesterly sustained winds of up to 25 mph
(gusts up to 35 mph) and very low RH of 10-15 percent (single digits
locally) will pose a Critical fire weather threat over portions of
southwestern Kansas, southeastern Colorado, northeastern New Mexico,
and the OK/TX Panhandles. Poor overnight humidity recoveries and
mainly clear skies during the afternoon will further exacerbate the
fire environment amid 90th-97th percentile ERCs. High/mid-level
clouds will increase during the afternoon across West TX and eastern
NM, however, sustained surface winds from 10-20 mph with 10-15
percent RH atop dry fuels maintain an Elevated fire weather threat.
...Southeast/Mid-Atlantic...
In a post-frontal environment, dry and breezy northerly flow will
develop east of the Appalachians into the Southeast on Sunday.
North-northwest sustained winds of 10-15 mph and widespread low RH
of 15-30 percent atop exceptionally dry fuels will promote Elevated
fire weather conditions from the Mid-Atlantic to the Florida
Panhandle. Elevated highlights may be adjusted in future outlooks
depending on the anticipated rainfall on Day 1/Saturday into Day
2/Sunday morning.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 172146
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0446 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 191200Z - 251200Z
A large, deep upper level trough will move over the Great Lakes and
the eastern US Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday, with another surface
cold front pushing through the eastern US. An upper-level trough
will move into the West early to mid-next week, with upper-level
troughing likely lingering over the West through next week. Much of
the southern half of the West, southern/central High Plains, and the
Southeast will remain dry for the outlook period.
...Plains and Southwest...
Lee troughing on the southern/central High Plains amid dry return
flow will result in another round of elevated to critical fire
weather conditions on Day 3/Sunday. South-southwest sustained winds
of 15-25 mph amid minimum RH of 8-20% is expected with the highest
probabilities of critical conditions in the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles, southwest Kansas, into far southeast Colorado and
northeast New Mexico.
Dry/breezy conditions will likely develop again on Day 4/Monday in
the vicinity of the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwest Kansas amid
continued surface troughing and dry return flow. Another area of
concern will be in eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska and South
Dakota near surface troughing and a cold front. West-northwest winds
of 15-20 mph amid minimum RH of 10-25% is forecast across this area,
with most of the concern ahead of the cold front.
As the upper-level trough moves into and across the Intermountain
West, increasing flow aloft and lee troughing on the High Plains
will lead to elevated/critical fire weather conditions. A broad 40%
area was introduced on Day 6/Wednesday across portions of the
Southwest and much of the southern/central High Plains based on
current ensemble forecast guidance. Depending on the timing of the
upper-level troughing, probabilities may be necessary on Day
5/Tuesday if the upper-level trough trends quicker, or probabilities
may be shifted/increased onto Day 7/Thursday if trends with trough
are slower. Regardless, critical fire weather conditions are likely
to return to portions of the Southwest and much of the
southern/central High Plains mid-next week.
...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic...
Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions will develop east of the
Appalachians on the Piedmont Plateau extending southwest into the
Florida Panhandle on Day 3/Sunday. The 40% area was expanded, but
farther expansion may be necessary depending on the anticipated
rainfall on Day 2/Saturday into Day 3/Sunday. North-northwest
sustained winds of 10-15 mph and minimum RH of 10-30% is forecast
within and near the 40% area amid a fuelscape characterized by ERCs
mostly in the 90-99th percentiles.
Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions will likely persist across
portions of the Piedmont and Deep South on Day 4/Monday. By Day
5/Tuesday, western portions of the Florida Peninsula and north
Florida have the best chances elevated to locally critical
conditions as 10-20 mph easterly winds overlap RH of 25-40%. Minimum
RH of 20-35% will continue across portions of the Southeast further
exacerbating already dry, receptive fuels for which a Fuels and Fire
Behavior Advisory has been issued.
..Nauslar.. 04/17/2026
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