ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 080550
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...Synopsis...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across
portions of western North Dakota. 05 UTC surface analysis shows a
surface low developing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies, which
will track to the east through the day. Southerly winds are forecast
to increase to 15-20 mph across ND ahead of a southeastward moving
cold front out of MT and Saskatchewan. Although isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along this boundary
by early evening, there should be a 3-4 hour wind during the
afternoon with warm temperatures in the low/mid 80s, RH values in
the low 20s, and breezy conditions. Although spring green up is
underway, dead grasses remain across the fuel landscape and are
sufficiently dry to carry large fires (as evidenced by a couple of
large fires in recent days across western ND). Similar wind/RH
conditions could develop along the MT/Canadian border within the
post-frontal regime, but wetting rainfall over the past three days
has likely mitigated fuel status for the time being. Elsewhere
across the country, widespread rain chances and weak gradient winds
will limit additional fire weather concerns.
..Moore.. 05/08/2025
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 080550
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather potential appears limited for Friday across the
country. The upper trough currently across the central U.S. will
continue to meander east through the next 48 hours. This will bring
widespread rain chances to much of the MS/OH River Valleys and the
Southeast over the next two days. To the west, upper ridging will
favor drier conditions, but weak low-level winds should modulate the
potential for fire spread. Breezy and dry conditions may develop
through the Red River Valley of the North Friday afternoon after a
dry cold frontal passage, but confidence in sustained winds above
elevated thresholds (15 mph) during peak heating is too low to
warrant risk highlights.
..Moore.. 05/08/2025
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 072030
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025
Valid 091200Z - 151200Z
Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Wednesday through
D6/Monday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the
southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building
in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will
bring warming and drying conditions, but generally light winds will
keep fire concerns low.
Late in period D6/Monday into D7/Tuesday, a trough is progged to
develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow
aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely
overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more
precipitation. Less precipitation is expected across portions of
Arizona. Fuels in both of these regions are generally below seasonal
averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC
modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire
spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this
time. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions may extend into portions
of western New Mexico as well. For now, model spread leads to low
confidence in including areas.
..Thornton.. 05/07/2025