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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 080550

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025

   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across
   portions of western North Dakota. 05 UTC surface analysis shows a
   surface low developing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies, which
   will track to the east through the day. Southerly winds are forecast
   to increase to 15-20 mph across ND ahead of a southeastward moving
   cold front out of MT and Saskatchewan. Although isolated to
   scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along this boundary
   by early evening, there should be a 3-4 hour wind during the
   afternoon with warm temperatures in the low/mid 80s, RH values in
   the low 20s, and breezy conditions. Although spring green up is
   underway, dead grasses remain across the fuel landscape and are
   sufficiently dry to carry large fires (as evidenced by a couple of
   large fires in recent days across western ND). Similar wind/RH
   conditions could develop along the MT/Canadian border within the
   post-frontal regime, but wetting rainfall over the past three days
   has likely mitigated fuel status for the time being. Elsewhere
   across the country, widespread rain chances and weak gradient winds
   will limit additional fire weather concerns.

   ..Moore.. 05/08/2025
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 080550

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   ...Synopsis...
   Fire weather potential appears limited for Friday across the
   country. The upper trough currently across the central U.S. will
   continue to meander east through the next 48 hours. This will bring
   widespread rain chances to much of the MS/OH River Valleys and the
   Southeast over the next two days. To the west, upper ridging will
   favor drier conditions, but weak low-level winds should modulate the
   potential for fire spread. Breezy and dry conditions may develop
   through the Red River Valley of the North Friday afternoon after a
   dry cold frontal passage, but confidence in sustained winds above
   elevated thresholds (15 mph) during peak heating is too low to
   warrant risk highlights.

   ..Moore.. 05/08/2025


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 072030

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0330 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025

   Valid 091200Z - 151200Z

   Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Wednesday through
   D6/Monday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the
   southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building
   in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will
   bring warming and drying conditions, but generally light winds will
   keep fire concerns low. 

   Late in period D6/Monday into D7/Tuesday, a trough is progged to
   develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow
   aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely
   overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more
   precipitation. Less precipitation is expected across portions of
   Arizona. Fuels in both of these regions are generally below seasonal
   averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and
   thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC
   modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire
   spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this
   time. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions may extend into portions
   of western New Mexico as well. For now, model spread leads to low
   confidence in including areas.

   ..Thornton.. 05/07/2025
      




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