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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 131645
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025
Valid 131700Z - 141200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...
The Elevated and Critical areas across the southwestern US were
expanded to include portions of northern Arizona and northwestern
New Mexico. Morning observations indicate critical meteorological
conditions are ongoing across these regions. Though some guidance
keeps relative humidity just above critical values, it appears
windy/drier solutions are verifying more closely to observations.
Fuels along the Mogollon Rim and favored downslope regions are
around the 75th percentile, which supports inclusion into the
Critical. Fuels near the Four Corners and in northwestern New Mexico
remain around the 50th percentile as such were included in the
Elevated.
The Elevated and Critical in the northern Plains was maintained with
this outlook. See previous discussion for more information.
..Thornton.. 05/13/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025/
...Synopsis...
Western US trouhging will deepen and begin to spread eastward as
upper-level blocking breaks down over the central US today. A lee
low will aid strong southwesterly winds and dry downslope conditions
across the Southwest and High Plains. With little recent rainfall
and above normal temperatures overlapping the increased surface
winds, critical fire-weather conditions are expected.
...Northern Plains...
Hot, dry and breezy conditions are again expected across parts of
the Red River Valley of the North and upper Midwest, as a strong lee
low supporting dry southerly winds over the northern Plains. Ahead
of a surface trough and cold front gusty southerly winds of 20-25
mph are likely across the eastern Dakotas and western MN through the
afternoon. Abnormally warm temperatures and modest moisture
advection should keep afternoon RH values below 30%. With very dry
fuels (ERC >90th percentile), several hours of widespread elevated
to critical conditions appear likely.
...Southwest...
The deepening upper trough over the western US will begin to move
eastward today, spreading strong westerly flow over the Southwest
and southern Rockies. The accelerating mid-level flow over a deep,
dry boundary layer with above normal temperatures will bring gusty
west-southwest winds of 15-25 mph to much of the Southwest. Fuels
continue to dry/cure farther north into eastern AZ and western
NM,supporting widespread elevated and critical fire-weather
conditions.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 131936
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...
Minor adjustments were made to bring the Elevated area further north
into northwestern New Mexico and far eastern Arizona to account for
latest trends in ensemble guidance. Otherwise, the outlook remains
on track. See previous discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 05/13/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025/
...Synopsis...
The upper trough over the western US will continue to intensify as
it emerges over the Rockies and onto the Plains Wednesday. Strong
mid-level flow will strengthen a lee cyclone with a trailing cold
front and dryline across the Great Plains. Dry westerly flow is
likely over the Southwest where critical fire-weather conditions are
expected. A more conditional threat for locally elevated
fire-weather conditions exist over the Plains and Midwest ahead of
the cold front.
...Southwest...
As the main upper trough begins to move eastward over the Plains,
the fire weather threat will persist for portions of Southwest.
Moderate mid-level flow at the base of the upper-trough will support
westerly downslope winds to 20-25 mph across southern New Mexico and
eastern AZ Wednesday afternoon and evening. Amidst a very dry
surface pattern with little recent rainfall and abnormally warm
temperatures, RH values below 15% are likely. With sufficient fuels
in place, and expanding in coverage from recent drying, widespread
critical fire-weather conditions are likely Wednesday.
...Central plains and upper Midwest...
As the upper trough moves eastward, a lee trough/dryline will
gradually sharpen across the central CONUS. To the west, dry
downslope flow is possible over parts of the central/northern Plains
into the Upper Midwest. With RH minimums below 30% and wind gusting
to 20 mph, some elevated fire-weather threat may be possible across
parts of CO/KS and NE into the Dakotas. However, the strongest
meteorological conditions are not expected to overlap with areas of
supportive fuels given rainfall over the past week. Increasing
surface moisture and some precipitation potential with the advancing
cold front may further limit any appreciable overlap. This will
favor a more localized threat with only isolated elevated
fire-weather conditions expected.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 132155
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0455 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025
Valid 151200Z - 211200Z
An upper-level trough will translate northeastward into the Great
Lakes region by Day 4/Friday with lingering dry and breezy
conditions across portions of the Southwest. This will also bring
much needed rainfall to portions of the Northern Plains and
Upper-Midwest. Another period of dry/windy conditions is forecast as
an upper-trough enters the western U.S. by the weekend (Day
5-7/Saturday-Sunday), bringing more fire weather concerns to
portions of the Southwest and then the southern high Plains.
...Southwest...
A persistent fire weather threat will continue for portions of
Southwest. Southeastern Arizona and central/southern New Mexico will
be the threat focal point where fuels have been more receptive to
fire spread. Fuels should remain available with no appreciable
rainfall across the Southwest through Day 5/Friday before the next
upper-trough arrives for the weekend. A 40 percent area was
maintained across southwestern New Mexico for Day 3/Thursday.
Some forecast uncertainty persists with the timing of the next
upper-trough and arrival of enhanced mid-level flow, precluding
addition of Critical probabilities for the weekend time frame for
now. It does appear some overlap of windy/dry conditions will be
possible from southern New Mexico into the southern high Plains.
..Thornton.. 05/13/2025
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