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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 060740
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...Synopsis...
Weak surface lee troughing beneath zonal flow aloft will support
relatively quiescent fire weather conditions for most of the central
CONUS today. The one exception will be over portions of the central
High Plains, where locally stronger downslope flow is expected as a
small mid-level impulse overspreads the region during the afternoon.
15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH
will overlap with drying fuels for several hours, warranting the
continuance of Elevated highlights.
..Squitieri.. 01/06/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 060754
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains tomorrow
(Wednesday), supporting surface low development over the southern
High Plains. While moisture return is anticipated over the southern
Plains, some dry downslope flow is expected across portions of
western Texas, as well as the central High Plains. In these
aforementioned areas, sustained westerly winds may briefly exceed 15
mph. However, guidance varies in terms of how low RH will dip by
afternoon peak heating, with some guidance showing RH reaching 20
percent in some spots, with other members showing RH only dipping
into the 25-30 percent range on a widespread basis. Given dry fuels,
locally Elevated conditions are possible, but do not seem widespread
enough to warrant highlights at this time.
..Squitieri.. 01/06/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 052132
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 PM CST Mon Jan 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 131200Z
Fire weather concerns limited/low confidence through the extended
period. A quasi-zonal flow pattern will be in place across the
Plains D3/Wednesday with some lingering Elevated fire weather
conditions across eastern New Mexico.
The next longwave trough will begin to progress out of the western
US on D4/Thursday, with a surface low developing across the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles into western Kansas. As this occurs,
southerly flow will increase with moisture advection into the
western portion of the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi and
Missouri River Valleys. Guidance has continued to differ on exactly
how far into the Plains this moisture reaches, but the trend
continues to be for more widespread wetting rainfall D4/Thursday,
which may aid in improving status of fuels and mitigating any
widespread fire weather concerns. As it stands, guidance suggests a
gradient in precipitation amounts extending from central
Oklahoma/north-central Texas, with the heaviest amounts eastward. It
is possible that portions of western Texas remain drier with less
meaningful precipitation.
There is some indication that on D5/Friday, strong and dry post
frontal northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains behind the
departing low. This may lead to some overlap of windy/dry conditions
across portions of western and north-central Texas. Confidence is
low in including any areas at this time with potential precipitation
unknown on D4/Thursday. Should precipitation totals be light across
portions of western Texas, an area may need to be included in
upcoming outlook updates.
..Thornton.. 01/05/2026
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