ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 090443
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will begin to amplify over the Ohio Valley as
upper ridging builds in over the Interior West today. By afternoon,
an 80+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread a dry boundary layer
over the central/northern Plains. Downward momentum transport within
this dry boundary layer will support 15-20 mph sustained
northwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH. Given dry fuels
across the central/northern Plains, Elevated highlights have been
introduced where guidance consensus depicts the aforementioned
dry/windy conditions persisting for several hours. Guidance
consensus also depicts 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface
winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH across portions of the
central High Plains, where Critical highlights are in place.
Additionally, by afternoon, buoyancy (albeit scant) may support
isolated, fast-moving/high-based thunderstorms over the same
portions of the central Plains that will experience dry/windy
surface conditions atop dry fuels. However, thunderstorms should be
sparse at best over most areas, and it is unclear where a locally
higher density of lightning flashes may occur, hence no isolated dry
thunderstorms highlights introduced this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 04/09/2025
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 090444
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughing will amplify across the eastern CONUS as an
upper ridge continues to build over the Interior West tomorrow,
supporting a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime across the central
Plains, where a dry boundary layer will be in place. By afternoon
peak heating, boundary-layer mixing will foster downward momentum
transport of the stronger flow aloft to support dry and windy
conditions for several hours tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon. Guidance
consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds
amid 20 percent RH across portions of central Nebraska into Kansas.
Given at least modestly dry fuels in this region, Elevated
highlights have been introduced.
..Squitieri.. 04/09/2025
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 082157
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025
Valid 101200Z - 161200Z
An amplifying mid-level trough will bring cooler temperatures and
precipitation to much of the eastern U.S. through day 4/Friday. A
strengthening high pressure ridge will promote potentially record
setting heat across portions of the southwest desert and
Intermountain regions beginning day 3/Thursday, lasting through the
weekend (day 5 and 6). Model guidance consensus remains good in
bringing an upper-level trough into the Pacific Northwest day
5/Saturday along with a subtropical jet component that should
promote widespread Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions
across the Desert Southwest on Saturday, spreading into the central
and southern high Plains Sunday. Forecast uncertainty increases
early next week but muted signals remain for at least some fire
weather threat across portions of the southern Plains.
...Day 5/Saturday - Day 6/Sunday: Desert Southwest and High
Plains...
Critical fire weather conditions are possible across a large
portions of the Desert Southwest on Day 5/Saturday in response to
the encroaching upper-level trough into the Pacific Northwest and
subtropical jet influence atop a very dry boundary layer and dry
fuels. An area of 40 percent Critical probabilities was introduced
for portions of southeast Arizona, where fuels will undergo several
more days of drying, into much of New Mexico and southern Colorado
for Saturday. Synoptically driven fire weather threat will continue
for New Mexico but shift further into the central High Plains and
front range of the Rockies as the trough translates eastward on day
6/Sunday.
..Moore/Williams.. 04/08/2025