ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 151903

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0103 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   The previous forecast remains on track with limited potential for
   widespread fire weather concerns expected across the country for
   Tuesday. Latest guidance continues to depict dry conditions across
   the Southeast, but weak winds are expected under a surface high.
   Localized elevated fire weather conditions may develop within the
   immediate lee of the CO Front Range and the Sacramento Mountains in
   NM; however, modest synoptic winds will limit the coverage of
   elevated meteorological conditions over a region with marginally dry
   fuels.

   ..Moore.. 12/15/2025

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025/

   ...Synopsis...
   Some modest breakdown of the upper ridge across the CONUS can be
   expected on Tuesday. A weak front will move out of the High Plains.
   There will be some increase in mid-level winds across the Rockies as
   well. Where sufficient downslope warming occurs within the
   central/southern High Plains, fire weather could approach elevated
   criteria locally. Confidence in location/duration are too limited
   for highlights.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 152147

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0347 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

   Valid 171200Z - 231200Z

   Fire weather concerns are expected to gradually increase through the
   work week and into the weekend across the south-central CONUS,
   though uncertainty remains high regarding which days/areas will see
   the greatest fire weather threat. Latest long-range guidance
   continues to trend towards an amplifying upper wave over the central
   U.S. Late Wednesday into Thursday with an attendant cyclone
   intensifying over the northern Plains/Great Lakes region. A second,
   though lower amplitude, upper trough will progress across the
   country late Friday into Saturday, supporting a second surface low
   developing during the same period. These two systems will support
   rain/snow chances across much of the country with the exception of
   the Southwest and southern Plains where dry conditions will prevail.

   ...D3/Wednesday to D6/Saturday - Southern High Plains/Plains...
   The fuel landscape is expected to gradually improve through the work
   week as temperatures warm to the 75-90th percentiles of seasonal
   normal and promote steady drying of dead/dormant fine fuels. The
   intensification of a surface low over the northern High Plains on
   D3/Wed will promote strengthening southwesterly winds across the
   central to southern High Plains. Antecedent dry conditions coupled
   with increasing winds should promote areas of elevated fire weather
   conditions across northeast NM to southeast CO. 40% risk
   probabilities have been introduced where ensemble agreement shows
   the highest potential for a prolonged fire weather threat.

   A cold front is forecast to push into the central/southern Plains
   through D4/Thursday. Strong northwest winds are expected behind the
   front with some reduction in RH likely within the post-frontal air
   mass across southern KS into OK and northwest TX. While some
   guidance, notably recent runs of the GFS, show widespread elevated
   to critical fire weather conditions, other solutions are less
   bullish on the overlap of 20+ mph winds and sub-25% RH. Although the
   potential for critical conditions is noted, the disparity between
   deterministic solutions and weak ensemble signals limit confidence
   in this potential.  

   A rapid return to a southerly dry return flow regime is expected by
   D5/Friday across the southern Plains as a surface low intensifies
   over the Dakotas. A cold frontal passage is anticipated on
   D6/Saturday with dry/windy conditions possible within the
   pre-frontal air mass. 15-20 mph winds appear probable both days
   across eastern NM into northwest TX, OK and southern KS, through
   large spread regarding RH reductions within both regimes is noted.
   As with D4/Thursday, poor agreement in wind speed/RH reductions
   among deterministic guidance and weak ensemble signals suggest the
   predictability of the fire weather threats on either day remains
   limited at this range.

   ..Moore.. 12/15/2025