ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 051915

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0215 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...Update...
   Some minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area
   for Saturday. The latest model trends regarding the track and ascent
   associated with the initial mid-level shortwave trough moving
   onshore suggest additional lightning strikes may occur further west
   over the Cascades of WA. Farther south, into portions of the
   northern Great Basin and far southeastern OR, fuels appear far less
   receptive. Therefore, some of this region was trimmed out of the
   isolated area. Please see the previous discussion below for
   additional details.

   ..Barnes.. 09/05/2025

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025/

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level trough will continue to approach the East Coast as upper
   ridging builds over the Rockies and a mid-level trough remains in
   place along the Pacific Northwest coast tomorrow (Saturday). A
   mid-level impulse will pivot around the northwestern trough,
   providing locally stronger upper support for dry and breezy
   conditions across northern California into southern Oregon. At the
   moment, the overlap of 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds
   amid 15-20 percent RH seem to be too localized to warrant Elevated
   highlights at this time.

   Of greater concern is the development of scattered thunderstorms
   ahead of the mid-level trough over parts of the Pacific Northwest
   into the northern Rockies. Here, a mix of wet and dry storm modes
   will overspread a dry boundary layer, as well as dry fuel beds.
   Storm motions will be relatively slow. However, the high
   receptiveness of the fuels may compensate for possible wet, slow
   moving storms to support lightning-induced ignitions, warranting the
   introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 042034

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0334 PM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025

   Valid 061200Z - 121200Z

   A negatively-tilted upper-level shortwave trough will continue to
   track slowly northward across the Northwest Day 3/Saturday into Day
   4/Sunday. A larger upper low will move into the Northwest late Day
   4/Sunday through Day 6/Tuesday, with upper-level troughing likely
   deepening over the West Coast through mid-next week. Upper-level
   troughing may develop over most of the West mid to late next week,
   but forecast uncertainty remains high on the progression of the
   upper-level trough over the West/West Coast.

   Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely in
   portions of the Northwest and northern Rockies/Great Basin on Day
   3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday, with the Cascades having the best
   chances. Onshore flow will bring showers, higher RH, and cooler
   temperatures to the Northwest and eventually the northern Rockies
   and northwest California beginning late Day 4/Sunday and likely
   lasting through much of the outlook period. This pattern change and
   potential preceding wetting rain in areas on Day 1/Thursday - Day
   2/Friday will limit the impacts of potential ignitions on Day
   3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday and slow fire activity across the
   northwestern US. However, if the upper-level trough slows or changes
   track in the coming days, areas may need to be introduced. 

   Dry/windy conditions are likely to develop across portions of the
   central/southern Intermountain West on Day 4/Sunday - Day
   7/Wednesday as upper-level troughing moves into the West. Fuel
   conditions are vastly improved after the last monsoonal surge.
   However, the environment will be monitored, especially in areas that
   received less wetting rain with the last monsoon surge, for
   potential overlap of critical winds/RH and receptive fuels.

   ..Nauslar.. 09/04/2025