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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 031635
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 AM CST Mon Nov 03 2025
Valid 031700Z - 041200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes...
Dry westerly/northwesterly flow in the wake of a departing surface
trough will encompass much of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
region today. West-northwest winds of 10-15 mph (locally 20 mph
closer to the Great Lakes) are expected this afternoon. However,
large scale juxtaposition of higher winds and low relative humidity
will be limited with drier and slightly warmer conditions expected
farther southwest. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are
possible, but short duration of west winds overlapping with
sufficiently low RH precludes highlights across a broader region.
..Williams.. 11/03/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 PM CST Sun Nov 02 2025/
...Synopsis...
A strong upper trough will move into the Northeast today. Across
much of the southern and central U.S., an upper ridge will be the
predominant feature. At the surface, a weak cold front stretching
from the Great Lakes into the southern High Plains will move
southeastward and lose definition.
Fire weather concerns are generally expected to remain low. Dry and
breezy conditions are expected within the central High Plains, upper
Mississippi Valley vicinity, the Florida Panhandle/North Florida,
and the southern High Plains. Between light winds, short duration of
elevated winds, and marginal RH during the afternoon, each of these
areas are only expected to experience locally elevated conditions.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 031950
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CST Mon Nov 03 2025
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...Central High Plains...
A strengthening Northern Plains surface low and enhanced mid-level
westerly winds over the central/northern Rockies will bring dry and
breezy conditions to eastern WY into the NE Panhandle Tuesday.
Forecast guidance continues to suggest sufficient boundary layer
mixing and drying to promote west winds of 15-20 mph and minimum RH
values of close to 10% in some areas despite some upper-level cloud
cover developing in the lee of the Rockies Tuesday afternoon.
Elevated highlights were maintained for eastern WY/western NE.
..Williams.. 11/03/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 PM CST Sun Nov 02 2025/
...Synopsis...
While the strongest upper-level winds will move offshore in the
Northeast, a belt of moderate to strong upper-level winds will
remain across the northern tier of the U.S. on Tuesday. A surface
low will develop into the northern Plains and another weak cold
front will move into the Plains and Upper Midwest.
...Central High Plains...
With the surface low deepening in the northern Plains and stronger
mid-level winds being present across the terrain, elevated fire
weather appears probable in eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska
Panhandle. Models do differ on the degree of afternoon RH reduction.
This is likely due to high level cloud potential. However, the
degree of downslope warming should be able to reduce RH to 15-20%.
Wind of 15-20 mph (perhaps locally higher) can also be expected.
...Southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois into northern Indiana and
northwest Ohio...
An influx of drier air is expected behind the weak cold front on
Monday. Some models depict a short duration of elevated to near
critical RH developing during the afternoon. However, this will
entirely depend on how much surface heating can occur. Forecast
soundings show a fairly high probability of mid/upper-level clouds
associated with a strong jet stream to the north and subtle
shortwave trough approaching from the west. This uncertainty
precludes highlights, but drought impacted fuels would support at
least locally elevated conditions.
...East-central New Mexico into Texas Panhandle/South Plains...
Modest mid-level winds and modest lee troughing could support a
period of locally enhanced winds across these areas. RH is somewhat
uncertain on account of potential high clouds, but 15-25% appears to
be the likely range. While there may be pockets of drier fine fuels
from recent freezing and dry conditions, weak winds (10-15 mph)
suggest only locally elevated conditions.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 032159
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 PM CST Mon Nov 03 2025
Valid 051200Z - 111200Z
...Synopsis...
A progressive but less amplified upper-level wave pattern will exist
through late this week. An upper-level short wave trough with
enhanced mid-level westerly flow entering the central U.S. Days
4-5/Thursday-Friday, along with a evolving surface trough across the
central/northern Plains should support an increased fire weather
threat across the Southern Plains on Day 4/Thursday. A highly
amplified pattern could emerge over the weekend with deep troughing
across the eastern U.S. and amplified ridging over the West. This
should contribute to a strong cold front intrusion into the
central/eastern U.S. early next week.
...Day 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday...
A deepening surface low moving into New England will promote breezy
southwest winds across the Mid-Atlantic region on Day 3/Wednesday
but alignment with sufficiently low RH in addition to cloud cover
should mitigate a larger fire weather concern across central VA.
Farther west, expanding/deepening lee troughing across the High
Plains and modest westerly flow over the southern Rockies on Day
4/Thursday will contribute to an increased fire weather threat
across the Southern Plains where 40% probabilities remain. Critical
fire weather conditions are possible across eastern NM/TX Panhandle
but a marginally receptive fuelscape should attenuate a more
significant fire threat.
...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday...
A dry cold front slides into the central/southern Plains by Day
5/Friday, keeping a dearth of moisture in place across the region. A
stronger cold front could arrive over the weekend under a more
pronounced/amplified upper-level pattern bringing a dry,
post-frontal environment to portions of central/western TX where
fuels remain dry. However, some uncertainty remains in timing of
cold front from long term model guidance, precluding introduction of
critical probabilities at this time. The same frontal system could
bring dry, offshore flow to portions of the Southeast early next
week where fuels remain receptive, although at least some
precipitation over the weekend should alleviate a broader fire
weather threat preceding the potential offshore event.
..Williams.. 11/03/2025
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