U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 060550
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...Synopsis...
A large upper-level trough positioned over the Great Lakes region
will shift east throughout the day, while a broad zone of enhanced
mid-level flow overspreads much of the northern Great Plains. At the
surface, a cold front will continue to progress southeastward,
draped across parts of the Ohio Valley early in the day and reaching
parts of the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the period. Consequently,
gusty post-frontal northwesterly winds will manifest throughout the
afternoon/evening across a broad area of the upper Midwest.
Sustained winds of 15 mph with RH values into the 20-30 percent
range will be common across this region amid fuels that appear at
least marginally receptive to large-fire spread. Therefore, the area
delineating elevated fire-weather conditions has been maintained for
the region, with a minor expansion made into parts of northern Ohio
and southeastern portions of the LP of Michigan.
..Karstens.. 10/06/2024
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 060550
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A large upper-level trough over the Northeast will continue to
amplify through the day, while a large upper-level ridge builds into
the northern Rockies and northern Great Plains. A mid-level
short-wave trough will sweep across parts of the Midwest into the
central Great Plains throughout the day. At the surface, warm/dry
conditions will develop across the southern/central High Plains
during the afternoon, as post-frontal return flow develops in
advance of the aforementioned short wave. This may produce locally
elevated fire-weather conditions for parts of the central High
Plains, but such conditions appear too localized to introduce an
elevated area at this time.
..Karstens.. 10/06/2024
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 052054
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024
Valid 071200Z - 131200Z
A very dry airmass will remain entrenched across much of the central
and western United States this week. This airmass will allow rapid
temperature rises during the afternoon resulting in relative
humidity falling into the 20-30 percent range (and locally lower)
most afternoons. The lack of any large-scale synoptic troughs moving
through the mid-level flow will preclude any critical fire weather
probabilities at this time.
By late this week, into next weekend, guidance suggests a cold front
will move across the Plains. An increase in surface wind speeds will
almost certainly accompany the frontal passage (both pre- and
post-frontal). Thus, as the timing of this synoptic wave/surface
front, becomes more clear, at least elevated fire-weather highlights
will be needed.
Additionally, surface winds may increase by next weekend across
inland Southern California into the Great Basin. However, confidence
in timing/strength of this trough remains low.
..Marsh.. 10/05/2024
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