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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 080749
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 AM CST Sun Mar 08 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...
...Synopsis...
Elevated to critical fire weather concerns are expected this
afternoon across portions of the High Plains. Weak lee troughing is
noted in early-morning surface observations along the High Plains
with further deepening anticipated through late afternoon as
initially weak mid-level flow over the Rockies strengthens later
today. Surface pressure falls are expected to be most pronounced
across southeast CO and eastern MT/WY, which should support
strengthening westerly winds and increase fire weather potential.
...Southern High Plains...
Focused lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across southeast CO this
afternoon, which will strengthen westerly downslope winds out of NM
into the OK/TX Panhandle region. Early-morning surface observations
are sampling single-digit dewpoints across northern NM, which is
around the 10th percentile for early March. Aside from RAP
solutions, recent guidance appears to be assimilating this very dry
air mass well and depicts RH minimums in the 10-15% range as the air
mass is advected east. Forecast consensus also suggests that
sustained winds between 15-25 mph are likely with gusts between
30-35 mph probable. Based on recent fire activity over the past week
and substantial monthly rainfall deficits (around 5% of normal),
fuels will likely support fire spread.
...Northern High Plains...
A surface trough/cold front associated with a clipper low traversing
the Canadian Prairies is expected to migrate along the International
border today. This will regionally augment the low-level pressure
gradient as mid-level flow strengthens aloft. The combined effect
will be increasing westerly downslope winds across eastern MT and
WY. Slightly above seasonal moisture content is noted in recent
observations, which yielded 20-25% RH minimums Saturday despite the
effects of downslope warming/drying. Similar humidity conditions are
expected today, which should result in primarily elevated fire
weather conditions across the region. Nonetheless, fuels remain
receptive across the region and will support a fire weather concern.
..Moore.. 03/08/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 071939
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...
...Southern High Plains...
Critical highlights have been added to portions of northeastern New
Mexico, into the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles vicinity.
Here, downslope flow will be strongest, with the latest guidance
consensus depicting 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds
overlapping with 10-15 percent RH during the mid- to late-afternoon
time frame. Otherwise, the previous forecast in this area remains on
track.
...Northern High Plains...
The latest guidance consensus depicts surface trough intensification
across the northern Plains around afternoon peak heating, with 15-25
mph sustained westerly surface winds appearing more likely. These
winds will coincide with 20-25 percent RH for several hours tomorrow
afternoon, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights given
fuels that are at least marginally receptive to wildfire spread.
..Squitieri.. 03/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026/
...Synopsis...
Regional fire weather concerns are expected for Sunday across parts
of the southern High Plains and potentially the northern High
Plains. Zonal flow across the Rockies is expected to strengthen
through the weekend as an upper low meanders over the lower CO River
Valley and weak upper disturbances migrate along the U.S./Canadian
border. This flow regime should promote lee troughing along the high
Plains with a corresponding uptick in dry westerly downslope flow
off the higher terrain.
...Southern High Plains...
Latest guidance hints that surface pressure falls will be regionally
most pronounced across southeast CO into southwest KS and the OK
Panhandle region. This will support 15-20 mph southwest winds across
northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles. Dry conditions will already
be in place in the wake of Friday's frontal passage, so confidence
is reasonably high in observing RH reductions into the teens to low
20s. Active fires across the area over the past three days indicate
that fuels are receptive amid ongoing drought conditions.
...Northern High Plains...
As with D1/Saturday, a progressive shortwave trough migrating along
the International border will support some increase west/northwest
winds along the northern High Plains Sunday afternoon. However, with
surface pressure falls more focused across northeast MT, confidence
in sustained 15-20 mph winds is somewhat lower across eastern WY and
SD. Regardless, localized elevated fire weather conditions are
possible as RH values fall to near 20% across a region with
receptive fuels.
...Southern California Coast...
An offshore wind event will likely be ongoing at the start of the
forecast period and is expected to peak Sunday morning between 14-18
UTC before gradually abating later in the day. Sustained winds
between 20-25 mph are expected with gusts as high as 45 mph possible
within the lee of the coastal terrain. Despite fairly high
confidence in critical wind speeds, recent fuel analyses show that
fuels are currently not receptive to fire spread.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 072159
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 151200Z
A mid-level cutoff low and upper trough will merge while ejecting
into the Plains, tracking toward the East Coast through the middle
of next week. Surface low development is expected across the central
U.S. with the passage of the merging upper troughs early next week.
This upper air pattern will support a few instances of regional dry
downslope flow, especially across portions of the central and
southern High Plains on Day 3 (Monday), where 40% Critical
probabilities have been introduced. Dry downslope flow may continue
across the southern High Plains on Day 4 (Tuesday), but possible
preceding rainfall and marginal RH precludes Critical probabilities
this outlook.
By the middle of next week into next weekend, a zonal upper flow
pattern will become established over the central U.S. with the
departure of the upper trough. A pronounced mid-level impulse and
accompanying rapidly eastward progressing surface low will support
widespread dry and windy conditions across much of the High Plains
on Day 6 (Thursday) given both strong gradient and downslope induced
surface flow. 40% Critical probabilities were introduced across
portions of the central and southern High Plains, where fuels are
most receptive to wildfire spread and are forecast to receive
minimal rainfall into next week.
..Squitieri.. 03/07/2026
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