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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 310711
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will impinge on the southern Rockies today,
supporting surface low development along the TX Panhandle/OK border.
Dry downslope flow will occur along the southern High Plains,
resulting 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15 percent
RH, warranting Elevated highlights. Isolated high-based
thunderstorms may also develop ahead of a frontal boundary atop a
dry boundary layer and receptive fuels. Given the potential for
lightning induced ignitions with these storms, as well as the
potential for ignition exacerbation from erratic thunderstorm wind
gusts, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added.
..Squitieri.. 03/31/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 310713
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states tomorrow
(Wednesday), resulting in rapid surface low development across the
central Plains. Strong gradient flow will support widespread 20-25
mph sustained westerly surface winds west of a dryline. While
Critical highlights were considered, widespread cloudiness will
dampen boundary-layer mixing to a degree, with RH expected to stay
above Critical thresholds (i.e. 20-25 percent RH). Given the
presence of dry fuels and stronger winds, Elevated highlights have
been introduced.
..Squitieri.. 03/31/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 302052
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026
Valid 011200Z - 071200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will progress from the western U.S. into the
Great Plains by D4/Thursday, with a more amplified trough entering
the central CONUS by the weekend. The active trough pattern will
bring cooler temperatures, much needed rain, and higher elevation
snow to much of the western U.S. with precipitation expanding
eastward east of the Continental Divide through the remainder of the
week. This should reduce fire weather concerns overall, with
exceptions across the central and southern High Plains where
precipitation will be limited to where pockets of dry/receptive
fuels are likely to remain. Intensification of a lee-surface low
will occur across CO/KS on Day 5/Friday before moving northeast to
the Great Lakes region D6/Saturday. An upper ridge builds back
across the western U.S. thereafter, bringing back warm and dry
weather towards the end of the forecast period.
...Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday - Southern High Plains and far West
Texas...
Broad southwesterly flow enters southeastern NM and western TX on
D3/Wednesday as a mid-level trough and associated jet eject into the
Southern Plains. Deeper boundary layer moisture and associated
rainfall should remain to the east of the southern High Plains,
allowing dry and receptive fuels to persist. Strong westerly
mid-level winds and lee surface troughing will continue to support
dry, downslope favored flow across the southern High Plains for both
D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. 40% critical probabilities have been
maintained for much of eastern NM and western TX, though the
inclusion of 70% critical probabilities in future outlooks may be
needed amid the strong mid-level flow and receptive fuels.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 03/30/2026
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