ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 230604
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...Synopsis...
Elevated fire weather concerns will persist across the greater
southern Great Basin and Four Corners region today as breezy
conditions continue within a dry air mass. Low to mid-level flow
over the Intermountain West is expect to weaken over the next 24
hours as a leading shortwave impulse ejects northward into the
Canadian Prairies. A secondary, weaker shortwave will settle into
the lower CO Valley through today, which will maintain southwesterly
flow across the southern Great Basin and into the Four Corners
region. Diurnal heating of a very dry air mass (as sampled by
regional 00z RAOBs) will promote wind gusts between 20-35 mph by
late afternoon, though ensemble guidance continues to suggest that
sustained winds will most likely remain between 15-20 mph for most
locations. Regardless, increasing rainfall deficits and antecedent
dry fuels/ongoing fires will support another day of at least low-end
fire weather concerns as dry/breezy conditions become more prevalent
through the afternoon.
..Moore.. 06/23/2025
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 230611
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...Synopsis...
Another day of elevated fire weather conditions is expected for
parts of the intermountain West on Tuesday. An upper trough
currently settling into the southern Great Basin/lower CO River
Valley is expected to stall and slowly de-amplify over the next 48
hours. This will maintain a belt of modest mid-level flow over parts
of the eastern Great Basin/western Four Corners region. Although
pressure gradient winds will generally be in the mid/upper teens,
diurnal heating and deep mixing of a dry air mass will promote
frequent gusts between 20-35 mph across the region - especially from
northern AZ into eastern UT and southern WY under a belt of somewhat
stronger 700-500 mb flow. Afternoon RH minimums in the low to mid
teens are expected, and coupled with dry fuels, will help support
another day of elevated fire weather conditions (though transient
periods of critical conditions are anticipated where stronger gusts
can occur).
...Dry Thunderstorms...
Isolated thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday afternoon across
portions of northeastern Nevada under the upper-level low. Cold
temperatures aloft combined with modest mid-level moisture and
strong low-level heating will support thermodynamic profiles
adequate for weak convection, but perhaps limited precipitation.
Given dry fuels across the region, some dry-thunderstorm risk is
expected. The primary limiting factor to a more substantial
dry-thunderstorm concern is slow storm motions (less than 10 knots),
which should increase the probability of wetting rainfall under the
convective cores.
..Moore.. 06/23/2025
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 222149
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025
Valid 241200Z - 301200Z
Weaker flow with the upper-low across the West will bring much more
confined and terrain driven dry/breezy conditions through early next
week. A high amplitude ridge building across the eastern US will
bring very warm temperatures and drying across much of the
central/southern Plains into the East before precipitation potential
returns late in the period.
...Day 3/Tuesday...
An upper-level trough will persist over the western US Tuesday, with
a jet streak traversing the northern Rockies. Elevated fire weather
conditions are expected across the Upper Colorado River Basin and
northern Arizona and into southeastern Wyoming where dry/windy
conditions will overlap receptive fuels.
...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday...
A series of shortwaves late in the period may bring an increase in
winds across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D5/Thursday and
D6/Friday, with potential for highlights to be included if
confidence increases. More zonal flow returns atop building high
pressure across the US By D7/Saturday and D8/Sunday. This will keep
winds light and fire concerns low but temperatures will be
increasing.
..Thornton.. 06/22/2025