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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 030711

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A compact shortwave trough moving across northern CA will accompany
   40-50 kt westerly flow across the northern Great Basin. This will
   encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV and the
   northern Great Basin. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture
   will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms over the
   Intermountain West with isolated lightning.

   ...Northern Great Basin...
   Dry and breezy conditions are expected today and tonight in the lee
   of the Sierra and northern Great Basin ahead of the shortwave
   trough. Sustained 15-20 mph surface winds are expected from the
   west/southwest through the day. A dry and deep boundary layer will
   also support RH below 15-20%. Despite some recent rainfall, area
   fuels remain receptive across much of NV and the northern Great
   Basin. Widespread elevated and locally critical fire-weather
   conditions are likely.

   ...Dry Thunder...
   As the upper trough moves into the West, monsoon moisture will be
   shunted eastward compared to the last several days. Still, PWATS
   around 0.6-0.8 inches across western CO and into the northern
   Rockies will be sufficient to support scattered showers and
   thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Fuel receptiveness has
   decreased with multiple rounds of showers and storms this week.
   Still, drier pockets remain and lightning outside of the heavier
   precipitation cores will be capable of ignitions. This appears most
   likely over parts of northern CO to eastern ID, where less rainfall
   has been observed. Will maintain IsoDryT highlights for occasional
   lighting strikes within receptive fuels.

   ..Lyons.. 07/03/2025
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 030711

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Western US troughing will intensify and shift eastward Friday as
   westerly flow aloft overspreads the Great Basin. Dry downslope winds
   are expected over much of the West. Elevated to critical
   fire-weather conditions are possible, along with a few thunderstorms
   Friday.

   ...Great Basin and Northern Rockies...
   Westerly flow aloft is forecast to increase as the shortwave trough
   over the West moves eastward. Dry downslope flow and warm
   temperatures are expected across much of NV into western UT Friday.
   Widespread westerly winds of 15-20 mph are expected. The stronger
   dry, southwest flow will advected drier air across the much of NV
   and southwest UT, resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and
   low surface relative humidity. Dry and deep boundary layer will also
   support RH below 15%. Widespread elevated and locally critical
   conditions are likely. Especially across southern NV into southwest
   UT, where winds may approach 25 mph sustained with RH below 15%.

   Along the eastern periphery of the drier air, isolated showers and
   thunderstorms are possible again. Recent rainfall has reduced fuel
   receptiveness across much of the Western Slope and eastern Great
   Basin. Some lightning may occur with a mix of wet and dry storms
   from ID, into southern MT, WY, and northern CO. However, the mixed
   fuels, and another potential round of wetting rainfall suggests the
   threat for dry strikes over receptive fuels is low.

   ..Lyons.. 07/03/2025


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 022153

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0453 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025

   Valid 041200Z - 101200Z

   ...Day 3/Friday...
   A negatively tilted short-wave trough and attendant mid-level wind
   maxima entering into the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will increase
   fire weather concerns across much of the Great Basin. The stronger
   dry, southwest flow will scour out remaining monsoon moisture across
   the much of NV and southwest UT resulting in a deep, well mixed
   boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. In addition,
   widespread showers and thunderstorms ahead of the trough will affect
   portions of eastern Oregon and Northern Rockies region.

   ...Day 4-8/Saturday-Wednesday...
   A mid-level trough will lift into the Northern High Plains on Day
   4/Saturday with a broad but reduced southwest flow pattern
   continuing to push remaining monsoon moisture and associated high
   terrain convection along and east of the Continental Divide by Day
   5/Sunday, mitigating the threat of new lightning ignitions for much
   of the Intermountain West. A building mid-level ridge over the
   Desert Southwest will support climbing temperatures to above
   seasonal averages across much of the West starting early next week.
   This pattern could also usher in another round of monsoon moisture
   into the Lower Colorado River Basin and southern California as early
   as Day 5/Sunday, although enough forecast uncertainty exists to
   preclude critical probabilities of dry thunderstorms at this time.

   ..Williams.. 07/02/2025
      




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