ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 030711
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...Synopsis...
A compact shortwave trough moving across northern CA will accompany
40-50 kt westerly flow across the northern Great Basin. This will
encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV and the
northern Great Basin. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture
will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms over the
Intermountain West with isolated lightning.
...Northern Great Basin...
Dry and breezy conditions are expected today and tonight in the lee
of the Sierra and northern Great Basin ahead of the shortwave
trough. Sustained 15-20 mph surface winds are expected from the
west/southwest through the day. A dry and deep boundary layer will
also support RH below 15-20%. Despite some recent rainfall, area
fuels remain receptive across much of NV and the northern Great
Basin. Widespread elevated and locally critical fire-weather
conditions are likely.
...Dry Thunder...
As the upper trough moves into the West, monsoon moisture will be
shunted eastward compared to the last several days. Still, PWATS
around 0.6-0.8 inches across western CO and into the northern
Rockies will be sufficient to support scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Fuel receptiveness has
decreased with multiple rounds of showers and storms this week.
Still, drier pockets remain and lightning outside of the heavier
precipitation cores will be capable of ignitions. This appears most
likely over parts of northern CO to eastern ID, where less rainfall
has been observed. Will maintain IsoDryT highlights for occasional
lighting strikes within receptive fuels.
..Lyons.. 07/03/2025
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 030711
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...Synopsis...
Western US troughing will intensify and shift eastward Friday as
westerly flow aloft overspreads the Great Basin. Dry downslope winds
are expected over much of the West. Elevated to critical
fire-weather conditions are possible, along with a few thunderstorms
Friday.
...Great Basin and Northern Rockies...
Westerly flow aloft is forecast to increase as the shortwave trough
over the West moves eastward. Dry downslope flow and warm
temperatures are expected across much of NV into western UT Friday.
Widespread westerly winds of 15-20 mph are expected. The stronger
dry, southwest flow will advected drier air across the much of NV
and southwest UT, resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and
low surface relative humidity. Dry and deep boundary layer will also
support RH below 15%. Widespread elevated and locally critical
conditions are likely. Especially across southern NV into southwest
UT, where winds may approach 25 mph sustained with RH below 15%.
Along the eastern periphery of the drier air, isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible again. Recent rainfall has reduced fuel
receptiveness across much of the Western Slope and eastern Great
Basin. Some lightning may occur with a mix of wet and dry storms
from ID, into southern MT, WY, and northern CO. However, the mixed
fuels, and another potential round of wetting rainfall suggests the
threat for dry strikes over receptive fuels is low.
..Lyons.. 07/03/2025
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 022153
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025
Valid 041200Z - 101200Z
...Day 3/Friday...
A negatively tilted short-wave trough and attendant mid-level wind
maxima entering into the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will increase
fire weather concerns across much of the Great Basin. The stronger
dry, southwest flow will scour out remaining monsoon moisture across
the much of NV and southwest UT resulting in a deep, well mixed
boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. In addition,
widespread showers and thunderstorms ahead of the trough will affect
portions of eastern Oregon and Northern Rockies region.
...Day 4-8/Saturday-Wednesday...
A mid-level trough will lift into the Northern High Plains on Day
4/Saturday with a broad but reduced southwest flow pattern
continuing to push remaining monsoon moisture and associated high
terrain convection along and east of the Continental Divide by Day
5/Sunday, mitigating the threat of new lightning ignitions for much
of the Intermountain West. A building mid-level ridge over the
Desert Southwest will support climbing temperatures to above
seasonal averages across much of the West starting early next week.
This pattern could also usher in another round of monsoon moisture
into the Lower Colorado River Basin and southern California as early
as Day 5/Sunday, although enough forecast uncertainty exists to
preclude critical probabilities of dry thunderstorms at this time.
..Williams.. 07/02/2025