ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 151949

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0249 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   A dry, post-frontal air mass will push through portions of the
   Midwest this evening, priming northern Illinois for substantially
   lower relative humidity for Friday. As a surface low moves into the
   Great Lakes region along with accelerating mid-level winds, strong
   surface winds of 20-25 mph from the south and southwest will develop
   by late morning. The stronger winds combined with relative humidity
   falling into the 20-25 percent range will support elevated fire
   weather conditions across northern Illinois for Friday morning/early
   afternoon. Fire weather threat remains conditional for the Chicago
   area as line of showers and thunderstorms and subsequent rainfall
   expected this afternoon/evening could limit fire spread potential
   for Friday.

   ..Williams.. 05/15/2025

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025/

   ...Synopsis...
   Fire-weather potential across the CONUS is relatively low Friday. In
   the wake of the departing upper trough, shortwave ridging is
   expected over the southern Plains and Southwest. This will
   temporarily slow stronger mid-level flow as a Pacific front shifts
   eastward. With only modest flow aloft and at the surface, strong
   winds are not expected over the driest fuels of the Southwest.
   However, warm temperatures and low RH below 20% will remain likely.
   This could support some localized fire-weather risk where westerly
   winds could gust to 15 mph closer to the terrain. Otherwise,
   increasing surface moisture and recent rainfall will largely
   preclude fire-weather concerns Friday outside of localized dry and
   breezy conditions over parts of the Midwest. However, this is not
   expected to be widespread.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 142153

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0453 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

   Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

   An upper-level trough and associated surface low over the Northern
   Plains on Day 3/Friday will push through the Great Lakes Region by
   Day 5/Sunday. An active upper-wave pattern will persist across CONUS
   with another upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S.  by Day
   5/Sunday, gradually pushing into the Eastern U.S. through Day 8
   where widespread rainfall is expected. Fire weather concerns should
   remain concentrated across portions of the Southwest where dry fuels
   and recent active fire activity amid drought conditions have
   occurred. A broad ridging pattern begins to build across the West by
   the middle of next week promoting generally light surface winds but
   above normal temperatures and dry conditions, which will aid in the
   curing/drying of fuels. 

   ...Southwest...
   A multi-day fire weather threat will persist across parts of the
   southwest through early next week. Modest mid-level flow over a
   well-mixed boundary layer should allow for gusty southwest winds
   across southeastern Arizona and southern New Mexico on Day
   4/Saturday. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the incoming
   upper-level trough into the western U.S. should promote at least
   Elevated if not Critical fire weather conditions across southern New
   Mexico where dry fuels and drought persist on Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday.
   40 percent Critical probabilities were added to reflect higher
   confidence of fire weather threat.

   ..Williams.. 05/14/2025