U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 281655
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1055 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025
Valid 281700Z - 291200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 01/28/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns appear limited for today across the country,
though localized elevated conditions may emerge across parts of the
central Plains and southwest New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor
imagery depicts a de-amplifying upper low over western AZ. This
feature is expected to meander east through the day, resulting in
modest surface pressure falls across western NM and maintaining
30-40 knot mid-level winds over the region. While pressure gradient
winds are expected to be modest (10-15 mph) diurnal heating of a
very dry low-level air mass (well sampled by the 00 UTC EPZ
sounding) will support deep mixing and downward momentum transfer of
the stronger mid-level winds, manifesting as 20-30 mph gusts at the
surface. With afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected again for
today, localized elevated fire weather conditions may emerge across
southwest NM where these stronger gusts are most likely to occur
based on recent ensemble guidance. Across the Plains, a clipper low
moving southeastward out of the Canadian Prairies will maintain a
moderate pressure gradient over the central to northern Plains.
Winds between 15-20 mph are expected, with some RH reductions into
the 20-35% range possible as a dry air mass (currently upstream over
the High Plains) overspreads the region. Confidence in
sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains limited, and fuels
remain only modestly dry. These concerns preclude highlights at this
time, but localized elevated conditions are possible across portions
of NE and SD.
|
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 281940
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2025
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 01/28/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Wednesday
across the country. The upper low currently over western Arizona
will shift into the southern Plains through Wednesday evening.
Widespread rain chances will overspread the southern Plains and
Southwest regions through the day limiting fire weather potential
for most areas. One exception is West Texas and south-central NM
where rainfall should be limited. While breezy southwest winds are
likely, recent guidance suggests the probability of reaching
elevated RH thresholds is low. Elsewhere across the country, cool
temperatures, weak winds, and/or recent rain/snowfall preclude fire
weather concerns.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 282155
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2025
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
Fire weather concerns will remain low in the early part of the
extended forecast. An upper-low that has remained over the western
US will eject across the southern Rockies into the Plains
D2/Wednesday through D3/Thursday, bringing windy conditions but also
chances for precipitation across the central/southern Plains. A
surface cyclone will develop across the southern Plains D3/Thursday,
with strengthening of a lee trough across the High Plains. This
pattern will favor a period of elevated fire-weather conditions,
particularly across southwestern and western Texas where freeze
cured grasses may support risk for fire spread. Elsewhere, marginal
fuels and chances for additional precipitation should limit the
potential for critical conditions.
Zonal flow behind this departing system will favor periods of
enhanced westerly flow overspreading the southern Rockies through
the weekend, with lee troughing redeveloping D5/Saturday and
D6/Sunday. This will bring potential warm/dry downslope flow across
portions of western Texas into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Some portion
of this region will have seen recent rainfall. However, Elevated to
locally Critical fire-weather concerns will be possible across far
western Texas where less precipitation was received. For now,
confidence is low in highlighting any specific areas.
..Thornton.. 01/28/2025
|
|