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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 131651

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1151 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

   Valid 131700Z - 141200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   No changes needed for the Day 1 outlook with no significant overlap
   of elevated winds, low relative humidity and receptive fuels across
   the contiguous U.S. Fuels remain quite dry across portions of
   central TX and the Deep South where limited Gulf moisture return is
   in place. Afternoon relative humidity in the 25-30% range is
   expected, although light northerly winds across this region will
   continue to limit significant fire weather concerns today.

   ..Williams.. 10/13/2025

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025/

   ...Synopsis...
   Preceding a deep mid/upper-level low over the West Coast, strong
   deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry air mass
   over the Great Basin. While this will yield dry and windy conditions
   during the afternoon, fuels are generally unsupportive of large-fire
   potential at this time.

   Farther east, a light offshore-flow regime will continue to favor
   warm and dry conditions across the Southeast -- where fuels are
   becoming increasingly dry. However, light northerly winds should
   generally mitigate the fire-weather threat.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 131948

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0248 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   No changes were made to the Day 2 Outlook with minimal fire weather
   concerns across CONUS. North to northeast winds within a dry
   continental air mass will continue across much of the eastern U.S.,
   keeping deeper boundary layer moisture out of the region. Above
   normal temperatures and dry conditions under an upper-level ridge
   will continue to dry fuels across the South on Tuesday, but light
   north to northeast winds should limit overall fire spread potential.

   ..Williams.. 10/13/2025

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025/

   ...Synopsis...
   To the east of a midlevel anticyclone centered on east TX, warm and
   dry conditions will continue across the Southeast amid a persistent
   offshore-flow regime. Despite increasingly dry fuels in some areas,
   fairly light northerly surface winds (around 10 mph) will generally
   limit the fire risk.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 132156

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0456 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

   Valid 151200Z - 211200Z

   ...Days 3-5/Wednesday-Friday...
   An upper-level trough across the West on Day 3/Wednesday will
   translate northeastward into the central/northern Plains by the end
   of the week. Subsequent lee cyclone development along the High 
   Plains in WY/CO should support a swath of enhanced southerly flow
   from TX into the central Plains on days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday.
   Drier fuels remain in place across central TX, but only a diffuse
   overlap of higher southerly winds and sufficiently low relative
   humidity is expected, limiting confidence for inclusion of critical
   probabilities. Lighter east/northeast winds through midweek across
   the Deep South will also mitigate fire weather concerns despite dry
   and warm conditions. Dry, post frontal northwest winds across the
   northeastern U.S. is expected across portions of the Mid-Atlantic on
   Day 5/Thursday although recent rainfall should aid in mitigating
   widespread concerns.

   ...Days 6-8/Saturday-Monday...
   Forecast guidance shows an amplified, progressive wave pattern
   across CONUS for the weekend into early next week. A sweeping cold
   front is likely to push through the eastern U.S. over the weekend
   into early next week, bringing needed rainfall to the Southeast. The
   frontal passage through TX on Saturday could yield a broader fire
   weather concern where minimal rainfall expectations and receptive
   fuels remain, but uncertainty in timing of front precludes
   introduction of critical probabilities.

   ..Williams.. 10/13/2025
      




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