ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 141652
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025
Valid 141700Z - 151200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...
Despite cooler temperatures behind a cold front moving through New
Mexico, a very dry post frontal air mass along with strong southwest
winds will support Critical fire weather conditions across portions
of central and southern New Mexico into far West Texas through
today. Latest model guidance consensus shows a corridor of sustained
southwest winds of 25-35 mph from southwest New Mexico with
downslope wind enhancement extending into leeward sides of the
Sandia-Manzano and Sacramento Mountains. These winds combined with
drying fuels and relative humidity dropping into the 10-15 percent
range this afternoon supported a slight northeastward extension of
Critical highlights into east-central New Mexico.
..Williams.. 05/14/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025/
...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough over the western US is forecast to deepen as it
moves eastward over the central US. A lee low and dryline will
strengthen over the Plains, supporting dry and breezy conditions
over much of the western and central CONUS. While strong southerly
winds are also possible ahead of the deepening surface low,
returning surface moisture and precipitation chances are also
expected, complicating some fire-weather potential. Critical
fire-weather conditions appear most likely over parts of the
Southwest.
...Southwest...
Moderate mid-level flow at the base of the ejecting upper-trough
will support westerly downslope winds of 20-25 mph across parts of
the Southwest this afternoon and evening. A very dry surface pattern
is expected to continue with above normal temperatures and little
recent rainfall. This should support widespread RH below 15%. With
sufficient fuels in place, and additional drying expected, several
hours of critical fire-weather conditions are likely over
southeastern AZ into southern NM and west TX.
...Central and Northern Plains...
A strong lee low with a trailing dryline will gradually deepen as
the upper trough begins to move over the Plains. Dry downslope flow
is possible over parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest behind the strengthening dryline. With RH minimums below 30%
and wind gusting to 20 mph, some elevated fire-weather threat may be
possible across parts of CO/KS and NE into the Dakotas and western
MN. However, the strongest meteorological conditions are not
expected to overlap with areas of supportive fuels given past
rainfall and additional rain through the period. Increasing surface
moisture may also limit any appreciable overlap. This will favor a
more localized threat with only isolated elevated fire-weather
conditions expected.
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 141953
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
Elevated highlights were extended into northeast New Mexico,
accounting for expected enhanced downslope west winds within a
cooler, but still very dry air mass where relative humidity could
fall to around 10 percent Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, forecast
(see below) remains on track.
..Williams.. 05/14/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025/
...Synopsis...
The upper trough over the western US will eject quickly eastward
spreading strong mid-level flow atop the central Plains. A powerful
lee cyclone will intensify further as it move into the Upper
Midwest. A cold front and tailing dryline may support precipitation
across parts of the Plains and Midwest States. Otherwise, dry and
breezy conditions behind these features will favor some fire-weather
risk.
...Southwest...
Persistent westerly flow will continue across the Southwest
Thursday. This will support another day of dry and windy conditions
across parts of eastern AZ and southern NM. RH below 20% and winds
of 15-20% amidst dry fuels will support widespread elevated to
locally critical conditions. Some fire-weather risk may also extend
into West TX behind an eastward mixing dryline. However, winds here
may be somewhat weaker despite very warm surface temperatures and
lower humidity. Locally elevated conditions are possible within
drying fuels.
...Central Plains...
As the strong surface low continues to deepen and shift eastward
over the northern Plains and Midwest, a cold front will approach the
central Plains Thursday/Thursday night. This could support some dry
and breezy conditions behind the front within receptive fuels.
Westerly gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 25% could support elevated
fire-weather conditions. However, some potential for rainfall in the
preceding days may temporarily limit fuels. The relatively confined
area and uncertainties on precipitation will preclude any highlights
for now.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 142153
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025
Valid 161200Z - 221200Z
An upper-level trough and associated surface low over the Northern
Plains on Day 3/Friday will push through the Great Lakes Region by
Day 5/Sunday. An active upper-wave pattern will persist across CONUS
with another upper-level trough moving into the Western U.S. by Day
5/Sunday, gradually pushing into the Eastern U.S. through Day 8
where widespread rainfall is expected. Fire weather concerns should
remain concentrated across portions of the Southwest where dry fuels
and recent active fire activity amid drought conditions have
occurred. A broad ridging pattern begins to build across the West by
the middle of next week promoting generally light surface winds but
above normal temperatures and dry conditions, which will aid in the
curing/drying of fuels.
...Southwest...
A multi-day fire weather threat will persist across parts of the
southwest through early next week. Modest mid-level flow over a
well-mixed boundary layer should allow for gusty southwest winds
across southeastern Arizona and southern New Mexico on Day
4/Saturday. A mid-level jet max rounding the base of the incoming
upper-level trough into the western U.S. should promote at least
Elevated if not Critical fire weather conditions across southern New
Mexico where dry fuels and drought persist on Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday.
40 percent Critical probabilities were added to reflect higher
confidence of fire weather threat.
..Williams.. 05/14/2025
