ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 170605

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR
   WESTERN TEXAS...

   ...Synopsis...
   On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is
   forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the
   southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening
   dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread
   Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far
   West Texas. 

   ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... 
   As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the
   dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10%
   relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid
   wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding
   the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the
   00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though
   there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any
   Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas,
   meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold --
   however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below
   average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this
   time.

   ..Halbert.. 05/17/2025

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 162009

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0309 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

   Valid 181200Z - 241200Z

   Critical fire weather conditions are expected to linger over the
   weekend and into early next week across parts of the southern High
   Plains. Long-range guidance continues to depict the amplification of
   an upper trough over the Southwest this weekend before ejecting into
   the Plains early next week. As this occurs, dry southwesterly flow
   should overspread much of the Southwest/southern High Plains, which
   will promote multiple days of fire weather concerns. After the
   ejection of this wave, ensemble guidance suggests low-amplitude
   long-wave ridging will become established over the central CONUS.
   This should promote muted surface pressure gradient winds along with
   isolated rain chances for most regions with the exception of the
   Great Basin and Southwest. 

   ...D3/Sunday and D4/Monday - Southern High Plains...
   Southwesterly flow over the southern/central Rockies will promote
   lee troughing along the southern High Plains through early next
   week. To the west of a sharpening dryline, west/southwesterly
   downslope flow will promote multiple days of dry/windy conditions
   with afternoon RH values expected to fall into the single digits to
   low teens with 15-25 mph winds. Widespread elevated to critical fire
   weather conditions are expected both afternoons as mid-level
   impulses propagate into the Plains and result in an eastward surge
   of the dryline. The fire weather threat should be greatest across
   south-central NM into far West TX where ERCs are currently between
   the 80th to 95th percentile. With northward and eastward extent,
   ongoing spring green up should modulate the potential for fire
   spread. 

   ...D3/Sunday and D4/Monday - Sacramento Valley...
   Dry northerly winds are expected through the Sacramento Valley both
   D3/Sun and D4/Mon. Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance
   suggests winds between 15-20 mph are likely with RH values falling
   into the 20-30% range. Elevated fire weather conditions are
   possible, and some fire threat may materialize given ERCs increasing
   to near the 80th percentile. However, confidence in
   sustained/widespread critical conditions remains too limited for
   highlights at this time.

   ..Moore.. 05/16/2025