ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 091643
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025
Valid 091700Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
An evolving narrow corridor of isolated showers and thunderstorms
along a cold front will progress through southern Minnesota/northern
Wisconsin through today. Expected PWAT values of 0.8 to 1.0 inch
will support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorm cores through the
afternoon so Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were withheld.
Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) is evolving as expected.
..Williams.. 05/09/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025/
...Synopsis...
Amplified mid-level flow will continue across the CONUS today as a
broad upper low gradually moves eastward. Western US ridging will
also amplify, forcing stronger flow aloft over the northern US. At
the surface, a cold front will move south across the Northern Plains
and Great Lakes. Relatively mild and wet conditions will prevent
broader fire-weather concerns over much of the country, though a few
drier thunderstorms are possible along the cold front.
...Northern Plains and Great Lakes...
As the cold front progresses southward, isolated thunderstorms are
likely to form along and ahead of it through the heat of the day.
With relatively modest moisture (PWAT values around 0.8 inches)
these storms are expected to be relatively high based. A mixed mode
of wet/occasional dry storms is possible with some lightning risk
over recent dry fuels. While coverage of the drier storms appears
limited, increasingly dry and breezy conditions behind the cold
front could allow for some lightning ignitions and localized
fire-weather concerns.
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 092001
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Northern Plains...
Surface lee trough development across the Saskatchewan/Alberta
Canadian provinces will promote increasing south-southwest winds
across the Northern Plains Saturday. A dry boundary layer present
over receptive fuels combined with south-southwest winds of 10-20
mph will support elevated fire weather conditions across
northeastern Montana and western North Dakota where Elevated
highlights were introduced. The driest surface conditions are
expected across eastern Montana with stronger low-level winds offset
farther east in the Dakotas.
...Southeast Arizona and far Southwest New Mexico...
Surface high pressure across the Colorado Plateau along with
inverted surface trough across Baja California will support elevated
southeast winds across southeastern Arizona and far southwest New
Mexico. Relative humidity is expected to drop close to 10 percent in
some lower elevation areas. These winds and low relative humidity,
combined with dry fuels in an area of extreme drought, supports
addition of Elevated highlights within this area.
..Williams.. 05/09/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025/
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will shift into the Plains on Saturday, as a compact
shortwave trough exits the Northeast. Beneath the building ridge, an
upper low will meander about the Southeastern US as the mid-level
flow pattern remains blocked. Troughing will slowly deepen over the
eastern Pacific amplifying the upper-level pattern.
...Northern Plains...
Despite the relatively stagnant upper air pattern strong flow aloft
will begin to move over the Ridge across the Rockies and into the
northern US. This will support slow deepening of a lee trough
Saturday afternoon. Low-level winds will veer to southerly and
strengthen through the weekend as dry surface conditions develop.
While widespread critical RH and winds are not expected, a few hours
of southerly gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 35% are possible. This
appears most likely over parts of the Dakotas and western MN. As
fuels continue to dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions may
develop. However, the lack of stronger winds and overlap with the
driest fuels should prevent more widespread concerns for Saturday.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 092200
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025
Valid 111200Z - 171200Z
An upper-level trough will slowly translate eastward from the
Pacific Northwest into the Intermountain West through the middle of
next week, while a cutoff low across the Deep South will gradually
shift eastward bringing widespread, heavy rainfall to much of the
Southeastern U.S. The upper-level trough will bring a range of fire
weather impacts to much of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on
Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday with eventual very warm, dry and
breezy conditions returning to the Southwest next week.
...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest...
The approach of the upper-level trough and associated warming will
result in temperatures 20-30F degrees above normal across portions
of the Dakotas Day 3/4 - Sunday/Monday. The cutoff low across the
Southeast will inhibit low-level moisture return to the Northern
Plains region early next week allowing stronger southerly winds
combined with dry fuels and low relative humidity will allow for a
elevated, possibly critical fire weather threat across the region.
...Great Basin to Southwest...
A strong mid-level jet rounding the base of the slow moving
upper-trough will bring a multi-day fire weather threat to portions
of the Southwest beginning Day 4/Monday, potentially into Day
7/Thursday. Warm, dry and windy conditions are expected to set up
across the Great Basin Day 3/4 - Sunday/Monday but fuels are not yet
receptive with green-up occurring across the region. Dry fuels
remain across portions of southeastern Arizona and southwestern New
Mexico where highest fire weather concern exists for Day 5/Tuesday
into Day 6/Wednesday as a strong mid-level jet enters the region. 40
percent critical probabilities were introduced given higher forecast
confidence.
..Williams.. 05/09/2025
