ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 131628
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025
Valid 131700Z - 141200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN NEVADA...
The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this
update. For details, see the previous discussion below.
..Weinman.. 06/13/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0212 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025/
...Synopsis...
A belt of southwesterly flow aloft with an embedded shortwave trough
will be situated over the northwestern CONUS during the day. This
will provide the focus for fire weather concerns, with the strong
flow aloft mixing down due to strong surface heating, producing
gusts of 25-30 mph across parts of northwestern Nevada. This will
occur in the presence of 10-15% RH for several hours. Fuels in this
area are fairly dry, so have maintained the Critical area across
parts of northwestern Nevada. Similarly, modestly dry fuels along
with gusty winds and 15-20% RH will result in Elevated fire
conditions across portions of the Columbia Valley in Washington and
Oregon.
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 131754
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor
adjustments were made to the Elevated highlights in northwestern NV
-- based on the latest high-resolution guidance.
..Weinman.. 06/13/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0212 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025/
...Synopsis...
A modestly strong mid-level jet is expected to be situated over the
northwestern CONUS during the day on Saturday, and strong surface
heating in this area is expected to mix down some of that momentum
from aloft. Given gusts of 20-25 mph expected along with 10-15% RH
and dry fuels, have introduced an Elevated area in northwest Nevada.
Additionally, modestly dry fuels across portions of the Columbia
River Valley in Washington and Oregon along with 15-20% RH along
with gusts of 20-25 mph warrant the introduction of an Elevated area
here, as well.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 132058
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025
Valid 151200Z - 211200Z
A mid/upper-level ridge centered on the southern/central Rockies
will deamplify as a midlevel trough and related strong flow aloft
track eastward across the Great Basin and parts of the Southwest and
southern/central Rockies on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday. The strong flow
aloft will overspread a warm/dry antecedent air mass across these
regions, promoting elevated to locally critical fire-weather
conditions each afternoon. Depending on the receptiveness of fuels,
higher probabilities may eventually be needed across parts of the
Great Basin on Day 4/Monday and the southern Rockies on Day
5/Tuesday -- given relatively high confidence in the development of
critical conditions each day.
By Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday, a robust midlevel trough/low should
evolve off the Pacific Northwest Coast. While the exact
timing/evolution of the trough/low varies among the medium-range
guidance, current indications are that strong west-southwesterlies
peripheral to this feature will overspread parts of the Great Basin
on Day 7/Thursday and/or Day 8/Friday. Therefore, 40-percent
Critical probabilities have been added for both days, and future
adjustments will likely be needed.
..Weinman.. 06/13/2025