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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 191625
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
Valid 191700Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...Morning Update...
Critical highlights were shifted farther south into the Red River
Valley and North Texas for the Day 1 update. Poor overnight moisture
recovery across the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma combined with
west-northwesterly 20-25 mph winds (30-40 mph gusts) and 10-15
percent RH by peak heating will promote Critical fire weather
conditions this afternoon and evening. The observed OUN sounding
portrayed 50 knot winds just above the surface, so as daytime mixing
occurs, the region could see stronger localized wind gusts. A cold
front will pass over the Oklahoma Panhandle/NW Oklahoma late this
morning and afternoon gradually shifting winds northerly, bringing
in cooler temperatures and higher dewpoints leading to a reprieve in
fire weather conditions. Elevated highlights have also been extended
across Eastern New Mexico to account for observed westerly downslope
winds of 20-25 mph and 15-20 percent RH atop receptive fuels.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 02/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026/
...Synopsis...
The first in a series of mid-level impulses, embedded within a
broader upper troughing pattern, will overspread the central Plains
today, encouraging a surface low to track from the central Plains
toward the Great Lakes region. As this occurs, the combination of
dry downslope flow from the southern Rockies, and gradient flow
driven by the surface low, should promote warm, dry and windy
conditions ahead of a southward-surging cold front. Across the Texas
Panhandle into Oklahoma and Missouri, 20-25 mph sustained
west-northwesterly winds may coincide with 15 percent RH for at
least a few hours this afternoon. Critical highlights have been
maintained since these surface meteorological conditions will
overspread dry fuels. Some areas from north-central Texas into
Missouri have received appreciable rainfall accumulations over the
past week. Nonetheless, finer fuels have more recently experienced
dry conditions, potentially increasing their receptiveness to
wildfire spread. Farther south across western Texas, surface winds
should only peak in the 15-20 mph range, amid 20 percent RH,
warranting Elevated highlights.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 191938
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN
TEXAS...
...Southern High Plains...
An embedded mid-level short wave impulse and attendant 90+ kt jet
will eject into the Southern Plains Friday. The strong westerly flow
along with subsequent lee surface trough development will support
dry, downslope flow across much of Southern High Plains.
West-southwest winds of 20-25 mph with relative humidity dropping
into 15-20% range across eastern NM and west TX will yield critical
fire weather conditions for the region. Warmer and drier conditions
are expected across the Trans Pecos and TX Big Bend areas, where
afternoon relative humidity will likely fall below 10% by peak
heating. Expanded Critical Highlights into portions far west TX
where sustained westerly winds of around 20 mph, very low relative
humidity and receptive fuels align to support wildfire spread.
..Williams/Garcia.. 02/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026/
...Synopsis...
The next in a series of mid-level impulses embedded in broader upper
troughing will overspread the southern Plains, resulting in surface
low development across the southern High Plains tomorrow (Friday).
As the low tracks eastward, dry westerly flow will promote wildfire
spread conditions. The latest guidance consensus depicts 20-25 mph
sustained westerly surface winds coinciding with 15 percent RH by
afternoon peak heating, warranting the introduction of Critical
highlights.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 192154
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 271200Z
...Synopsis...
As upper-level troughing shifts eastward, a dry cold front sweeps
across the Southern Plains bringing dry northerly flow and fire
weather concerns to southern TX Day 3/Saturday. Widespread rainfall
across much of the Southeast should temporarily alleviate fire
weather concerns over the weekend. Rainfall should be limited
farther south across the Gulf Coast and FL, with particular concern
for FL where dry-post frontal northerly flow could increase the fire
weather threat for Day 4/Sunday and 5/Monday. The upper ridge will
begin to break down D6/Sunday, introducing dry return flow and
downslope winds across the Central and Southern Plains, potentially
increasing fire weather concerns through the extended period.
...Day 3/Saturday - Southern Texas...
Post frontal northerly winds behind a prominent dry cold front move
into TX Day 3/Saturday. Heightened fire weather concerns should
exist across portions of central and southern TX where RH will drop
to 10-20 percent with sustained northerly winds of 10-20 mph spread
across a dry fuelscape. 40% Critical probabilities have been
maintained.
...Day 4/Sunday and Day 5/Monday - Florida and Southern Plains...
Deep layer northwesterly flow develops across the Southeast and FL
behind a surface cold front underlying an amplifying upper-level
trough across the Northeast. Widespread wetting rainfall from Day
4/Sunday is expected to remain north of the Gulf Coast, with minimal
precipitation across FL. A cold front will pass through the northern
FL peninsula early afternoon D4/Sunday bringing post frontal
northwesterly winds and low RH. Coincident dry fuels should increase
the fire weather threat where 40% Critical probabilities have been
added. D5/Monday dry northwesterly flow is expected to shift to
southern FL where even lower RH is anticipated, maintaining 40%
Critical probabilities. There is uncertainty in the RH reductions
under a cooler, dry return flow pattern across the Southern Plains
on D5/Monday, which precludes introductions of Critical
probabilities at this time.
...Day 6/Tuesday - Southern and Central Plains...
Fire weather concerns reemerge across portions of the central and
southern High Plains via dry return flow and increasing westerly
winds aloft as the upper-level ridge across the Intermountain West
breaks down. 40% critical probabilities have been added where a
combination of low RH and strong westerly winds overlap dry fuels in
eastern NM, TX Panhandle, and southwestern OK. Beneath the
upper-level ridge a surface low will emerge in the lee of the
northern Rockies, tightening a surface pressure gradient across
eastern WY and western NE. Strong downslope winds may occur, though
cooler temperatures and RH uncertainties have limited the
introduction of Critical probabilities for now.
...Day 7/8 Wednesday/Thursday - West Texas...
40% probabilities have been introduced across the West TX region on
D7/Wednesday as long-range models are hinting at hot, dry, windy
conditions. Increasing northwest flow aloft and induced surface lee
troughing will support increased fire weather concerns. Uncertainty
is too high for D8/Thursday, though the anticipated pattern could
suggest an ongoing fire weather threat through the forecast period.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 02/19/2026
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