|
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 071653
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1053 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026
Valid 071700Z - 081200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING
NORTHERN COLORADO AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...
...Northern Rockies...
Westerly flow over parts of the northern Rockies will continue today
as downslope winds increase to 15-25 mph in spots over parts of
central MT. However, increasing cloud cover is also expected to
limit afternoon RH minimums. This should keep fire-weather concerns
more localized despite unusually dry fuels and the increase in
surface winds.
...Central High Plains...
Minor changes were made to the Critical Area over parts of CO and
WY. Morning observations show downslope flow and partial clearing
over the Plains farther east. Poor overnight humidity recoveries
(below 30%) will allow for deep mixing today as RH falls further
this afternoon. Wind gusts of 20-30 mph are likely from southeastern
WY into western NE and northern CO. This should support a few hours
of critical conditions given dry fuels over parts of the High
Plains.
Otherwise, see the prior outlook for additional information.
..Lyons.. 02/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will generally prevail across the Plains states as a
mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a cut-off upper low
meanders eastward over the Baja Peninsula today. An embedded
mid-level impulse will traverse the upper ridge over the central
Rockies, supporting surface lee troughing over the High Plains
region.
Across the central High Plains corridor, guidance consensus depicts
widespread 20+ mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds with
downslope flow for at least a few hours during the afternoon. By
peak heating, RH may decrease to 15 percent along the
Colorado/Wyoming/Nebraska border. When considering dry fuels with
the aforementioned stronger sustained winds in this area, Critical
highlights appear warranted.
Farther south across northeastern New Mexico into the northern Texas
Panhandle, downslope flow will support 15+ mph sustained
west-southwesterly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH for at least
a few hours this afternoon. Such conditions warrant the maintenance
of Elevated highlights given at least marginally dry fuels over the
southern High Plains.
Dry air will overspread the Florida Peninsula in association with
the reinforcement of surface high pressure over the eastern CONUS.
RH may dip below 30 percent over much of the peninsula, with lower
values possible locally. Surface wind fields are expected to be
relatively weak, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook.
Still, the dry air and receptive fuels will promote localized
wildfire-spread potential.
|
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 071924
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...19z Update...
No changes were made to the prior outlook. Locally strong downslope
winds of 20-30 mph are possible over parts of WY and northern CO
Sunday. However, the overlap of strong winds with low humidity and
dry fuels appears localized. While some brief fire-weather risk is
possible, no areas will be added. Strong winds may increase
overnight into D3/Monday.
..Lyons.. 02/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will generally prevail over the central U.S. as the
East Coast trough continues to progress farther east into the
Atlantic, and a mid-level cut-off low overspreads northwestern
Mexico tomorrow (Sunday). As a result, surface troughing will
persist over the central U.S., with some hints of appreciable
moisture return likely over the southern Plains.
A strong mid-level impulse, with a 50+ kt 500 mb jet streak will
crest the upper ridge Sunday afternoon, supporting surface low
development just north of the U.S./Canadian border. 20-25 mph
sustained westerly surface winds will overspread much of central
Montana into the northern High Plains Sunday afternoon. RH may only
dip to around 30 percent over most locales though, which should
limit the wildfire-spread potential to some degree (hence no
highlights this outlook). Still, fuels are beginning to dry over
this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall over the past few
weeks, so localized wildfire-spread potential is plausible. Elevated
highlights may be needed in future outlooks if lower RH becomes
evident in later guidance.
Otherwise, a dry surface airmass should linger over the Florida
Peninsula, amid a weak surface wind field, to continue promoting
localized wildfire potential through Sunday afternoon.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 062153
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CST Fri Feb 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 141200Z
Active and progressive mid-level flow is expected across the CONUS
through the extended forecast period. Shortwave troughing will
progress through the Rockies and Plains this weekend with more
troughing expected later next week. Fire weather concerns
should generally increase for portions of the Southern Plains early
next week as stronger southwest flow affects the region.
...Northern Rockies D3-D4...
Dry and breezy downslope conditions are possible ahead of a northern
stream shortwave trough across parts of the northern Rockies
D3/Sunday and D4/Monday. With westerly flow expected to increase
behind a departing lee low, downslope winds of 15-30 mph are
possible. Uncertainty exists on how dry surface conditions will be
given the arrival of western troughing and snow. However, some
localized fire-weather concerns are possible given ongoing drought
and increase in low-level winds, especially D4/Monday over parts of
WY and CO.
...Southwest/Southern Plains D4-D7...
Increasing mid-level flow over the central Rockies is expected much
of next week as the large-scale pattern moves toward more active
southern stream flow. A shortwave trough will move across the
southern Rockies D4/Monday increasing winds across portions of
eastern NM and west TX. Episodic troughing and stronger flow aloft
will continue through much of the week and into next weekend with an
increase in the fire-weather risk given dry fuels and warm
temperatures.
While some fire-weather risk appears possible, increasing ensemble
member spread and uncertainty regarding the northern extent of
returning Gulf moisture and precipitation into the southern Plains
precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time.
..Lyons.. 02/06/2026
|
|
