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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 020647

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0147 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026

   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Broad mid-level troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern
   US Saturday as a weaker perturbation merges with it across the
   northern Gulf Coast. As the upper trough deepens, the associated
   southwesterly flow aloft will also strengthen. This will drive a
   cold front into the Gulf, though gusty winds and dry conditions are
   expected ahead of it over parts of FL. To the west, high pressure
   will remain over the Great Basin and northwesterly flow aloft
   persists over the central US.

   ...FL...
   Widespread dry and breezy conditions are expected again today ahead
   of the cold front moving across the FL Peninsula. Strong westerly
   flow at the base of the deepening eastern US trough will overspread
   the frontal zone this morning and afternoon, supporting gusty
   westerly winds across parts of southern and central FL. Mid and
   upper-level cloud cover are likely to accompany the front, though
   breaks (becoming more frequent with southward extent) should support
   some diurnal mixing. With westerly flow aloft increasing, surface
   gusts of 10-20 mph are possible. This should support gusty winds
   with RH below 40% for much of the region where rainfall has been
   limited. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely.

   A couple hours of locally critical conditions are possible through
   the afternoon where occasional gusts of 15-20 mph could overlap with
   RH below 35%. This appears most likely farther south and east where
   humidity is expected to be lower and less likely to be impacted by
   clouds. However, less upper-level support for strong mixing and
   gusts is expected here. This suggests that while critical conditions
   are possible, they are unlikely to be widespread or of long
   duration.

   Fire-weather concerns should end this evening as the front continues
   to move southward. Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity
   should accompany the frontal passage, with cooler conditions
   developing behind the front.

   ...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
   Behind the upper trough moving out of the Great lakes, continued
   northwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Plains. An embedded
   perturbation will deepen a weak surface low tracking from southern
   Canada into the eastern Dakotas. Trailing the low, a cold front will
   move southward, supporting gusty winds over parts of MT/WY and the
   western Dakotas. While RH will be variable and somewhat marginal
   given high cloud cover and the cooler air mass behind the front,
   most guidance shows diurnal minimums below 30%. The strong northerly
   winds of 15-25 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) are likely for several hours
   following the frontal passage, supportive of Elevated fire weather
   conditions given dry fuels.

   ..Lyons.. 05/02/2026
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 020650

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0150 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Split mid-level flow will develop over the US Sunday as an upper
   trough exits the east coast and ridging remains in place across the
   Great Basin. The northern branch of the flow aloft will remain
   northwesterly over the Plains while a cutoff low is absorbed by the
   strengthening sub tropical jet. The result will be unseasonably dry
   conditions over much of the central CONUS where elevated
   fire-weather conditions are possible across the northern Plains.

   ...Northern Plains...
   An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to deepen as it moves
   out of southern Canada into the northern US Sunday. At the surface,
   an associated low will intensify as it traverses south-central
   Canada. A strengthening surface pressure gradient should tighten
   across much of the northern Plains, promoting dry and breezy
   conditions ahead of a southward progressing cold front tied to the
   low. Gusty winds of 20-30 mph are expected, along with RH below 30%.
   Widespread dry and breezy conditions over a dry fuelscape should
   promote elevated fire-weather potential.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   Dry and breezy southerly flow is expected over parts of western OK
   and the TX Panhandles Sunday beneath a northwesterly flow shortwave
   trough. South/southwest gusts of 20-25 mph are possible during the
   afternoon. With few clouds, afternoon RH values are expected to
   decrease to below 20% near the lee trough. This could support some
   localized fire-weather concerns. However, seasonably cooler
   temperatures and rainfall/green up have tempered fuels such that
   widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected.

   ..Lyons.. 05/02/2026


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 012137

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0437 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026

   Valid 031200Z - 091200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   An amplifying upper trough across the eastern U.S. and deepening
   surface low near the Carolina Coast will send a cold front and
   associated rainfall southeastward over the weekend. This will
   provide a temporary fire weather reprieve not only to Florida but to
   much of the Southeast and portions of the Mid Atlantic where fuels
   have been exceptionally dry. A deepening surface low traversing
   south-central Canada should bring stronger west-northwest winds and
   low RH to portions of the northern Plains on Day 3/Sunday. Dry and
   breezy conditions return to the Southwest Day 3/Sunday and Southern
   High Plains Day 4-5/Monday-Tuesday as upper-level troughing
   gradually shifts into the region.

   ...Days 3-5/Sunday-Tuesday...
   ...Northern Plains...
   Beneath an upper level shortwave trough, a surface low will begin to
   deepen on Day 3/Sunday as it traverses south-central Canada. Surface
   pressure gradients should tighten across much of the northern
   Plains, promoting dry and breezy conditions ahead of a southward
   progressing cold front and increasing cloud cover. 40% Critical
   probabilities have been introduced to account for these conditions
   amid very dry fuels.

   ...Southern Plains...
   Increasing southwesterly flow aloft should overspread the Southwest
   and Southern Plains as a lee surface trough develops across the
   southern Plains early next week. This will support dry and breezy
   conditions across the Southwest on Day 3/Sunday, with downslope
   drying and enhanced winds evolving in the southern High Plains Day
   4/Monday and Day 5/Tuesday. Preceding widespread rainfall in
   addition to ongoing green up across the region should limit the
   impact of an otherwise enhanced fire weather concern across portions
   of the southern Plains and Southwest. However, in areas that did not
   receive appreciable rainfall, fire weather concerns will reemerge
   for east-central NM into parts of the TX Panhandle on Day 4/Monday
   where 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Dry and
   breezy conditions continue on Day 5/Tuesday for the southern Plains
   as the upper trough moves overhead and a surface low develops over
   Oklahoma. A cold front will traverse the region during the
   morning/afternoon, though guidance ambiguity in timing of the front
   arrival precludes the introduction of critical probabilities at this
   time.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/01/2026
      




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