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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 200718
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO WEST TEXAS...
...Synopsis...
As a shortwave trough embedded in broader westerly flow progresses
across the southern Rockies into the Southern Great Plains, dry and
breezy downslope winds associated with a developing surface low will
result in widespread Elevated to Critical fire-weather concerns
across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma
Panhandle/West Texas. Relative humidity as low as 10-15% (drier with
southward extent) coupled with 20-25 MPH winds will overlap a
variety of fuel conditions, ranging from seasonal 60th percentile
ERCs to 95th percentile. This will support wildfire spread with any
ignitions during the afternoon.
..Halbert.. 02/20/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 200719
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...Synopsis...
A dry and breezy post-frontal airmass associated with a jet maximum
exiting the southern Plains will be responsible for at least
Elevated fire-weather concerns across portions of far southwest
Texas on Saturday. Relative humidity of 15-20% is expected with
northerly surface winds of 15 MPH (gusting to 20). While there is
generally a gradient of fuel readiness across the area, with drier
fuels in the west, these conditions will still pose an Elevated
threat for wildfire ignition and spread during the afternoon.
..Halbert.. 02/20/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 192154
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 271200Z
...Synopsis...
As upper-level troughing shifts eastward, a dry cold front sweeps
across the Southern Plains bringing dry northerly flow and fire
weather concerns to southern TX Day 3/Saturday. Widespread rainfall
across much of the Southeast should temporarily alleviate fire
weather concerns over the weekend. Rainfall should be limited
farther south across the Gulf Coast and FL, with particular concern
for FL where dry-post frontal northerly flow could increase the fire
weather threat for Day 4/Sunday and 5/Monday. The upper ridge will
begin to break down D6/Sunday, introducing dry return flow and
downslope winds across the Central and Southern Plains, potentially
increasing fire weather concerns through the extended period.
...Day 3/Saturday - Southern Texas...
Post frontal northerly winds behind a prominent dry cold front move
into TX Day 3/Saturday. Heightened fire weather concerns should
exist across portions of central and southern TX where RH will drop
to 10-20 percent with sustained northerly winds of 10-20 mph spread
across a dry fuelscape. 40% Critical probabilities have been
maintained.
...Day 4/Sunday and Day 5/Monday - Florida and Southern Plains...
Deep layer northwesterly flow develops across the Southeast and FL
behind a surface cold front underlying an amplifying upper-level
trough across the Northeast. Widespread wetting rainfall from Day
4/Sunday is expected to remain north of the Gulf Coast, with minimal
precipitation across FL. A cold front will pass through the northern
FL peninsula early afternoon D4/Sunday bringing post frontal
northwesterly winds and low RH. Coincident dry fuels should increase
the fire weather threat where 40% Critical probabilities have been
added. D5/Monday dry northwesterly flow is expected to shift to
southern FL where even lower RH is anticipated, maintaining 40%
Critical probabilities. There is uncertainty in the RH reductions
under a cooler, dry return flow pattern across the Southern Plains
on D5/Monday, which precludes introductions of Critical
probabilities at this time.
...Day 6/Tuesday - Southern and Central Plains...
Fire weather concerns reemerge across portions of the central and
southern High Plains via dry return flow and increasing westerly
winds aloft as the upper-level ridge across the Intermountain West
breaks down. 40% critical probabilities have been added where a
combination of low RH and strong westerly winds overlap dry fuels in
eastern NM, TX Panhandle, and southwestern OK. Beneath the
upper-level ridge a surface low will emerge in the lee of the
northern Rockies, tightening a surface pressure gradient across
eastern WY and western NE. Strong downslope winds may occur, though
cooler temperatures and RH uncertainties have limited the
introduction of Critical probabilities for now.
...Day 7/8 Wednesday/Thursday - West Texas...
40% probabilities have been introduced across the West TX region on
D7/Wednesday as long-range models are hinting at hot, dry, windy
conditions. Increasing northwest flow aloft and induced surface lee
troughing will support increased fire weather concerns. Uncertainty
is too high for D8/Thursday, though the anticipated pattern could
suggest an ongoing fire weather threat through the forecast period.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 02/19/2026
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