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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 081645
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 081700Z - 091200Z
...Morning Update...
Elevated fire-weather conditions remain possible across parts of the
central High Plains this afternoon. Westerly downslope flow is
forecast to increase through the day from southeastern WY into
northern CO and the western NE Panhandle. While RH appears somewhat
limited owing to morning cloud cover, poor overnight recoveries and
downslope drying will likely still support a couple of hours with RH
of 20-30%. This along with gusts of 20-30 mph and dry fuels will
support some fire-weather concerns through this afternoon.
otherwise, see the prior discussion for more info.
..Lyons.. 02/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026/
...Synopsis...
Broad upper ridging will overspread the western and central CONUS
today, with multiple pronounced, embedded impulses poised to
traverse the upper ridge through the day. One mid-level impulse,
accompanied by a 70 kt 500 mb jet streak, will overspread the
northern Rockies, encouraging surface low development north of the
Canadian border, with lee troughing expected over the High Plains.
The strongest westerly surface flow is likely over eastern Montana
(i.e. 15-25 mph), in closer proximity to the surface low. However,
RH will likely remain too high for Elevated highlights, though the
stronger winds and drying fuels may promote localized wildfire
spread potential. The better chance for Elevated fire weather
conditions will be along the Wyoming/Colorado/Nebraska border. Here,
15+ mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds may overlap with
RH dipping to 20 percent for a few hours Monday afternoon, atop
drying fuels that have not received any precipitation for at least a
few weeks.
Localized wildfire potential exists over the Florida Peninsula,
where dry fuels and 20-35 percent RH are expected Sunday afternoon.
However, the lack of an appreciable surface wind field precludes
fire weather highlights.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 081917
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS....
...19z Update...
Widespread elevated and a few hours of critical fire-weather
conditions are likely Monday afternoon across portions of the
southern High Plains. Downslope winds of 20-25 mph are expected
during the afternoon. Stronger gusts to 30 mph are also possible
from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle and western OK. At the same
time, low RH below 20% is expected for a few hours during the
afternoon. Given little recent rainfall, some dry fuels are present
and will likely support fire-weather concerns Monday.
Across the central High Plains, more transient surface winds and the
arrival of the cold front during the afternoon will limit the
duration of elevated fire-weather potential across CO/NE/WY.
However, dry fuels and the overlap of gusty winds and low humidity
should still be sufficient for a few hours of elevated concerns. See
the prior discussion for more information.
..Lyons.. 02/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will overspread the Great Lakes as another upper
trough impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). The
progression of the northern U.S. trough will encourage surface low
development over the central Plains Monday afternoon, with dry
downslope flow over portions of the High Plains. Widespread Elevated
conditions are expected across parts of the central High Plains into
Nebraska immediately behind a surface cold front accompanying the
aforementioned surface low. 15-20 mph sustained west-northwesterly
surface winds will overlap with 20-25 percent RH atop dry fuels for
at least a few hours.
Farther south across the southern High Plains, dry downslope flow
will be stronger compared to points farther north. By afternoon peak
heating, southwesterly surface winds may sustain over 25 mph amid
10-15 percent RH, warranting Critical highlights given dry fuels.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 082155
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 161200Z
Active mid-level flow will continue to intensify this week as
troughing gradually deepens over the West. Episodic troughing will
overspread the Southwest and Plains through midweek. Gusty downslope
winds are possible in the lee of the Rockies and southern Plains.
This will continue into next weekend when more substantial troughing
appears likely to emerge over the central US. While fire-weather
conditions will remaining localize initially, the increase in
westerly flow overlapped with unusually warm/dry conditions should
increase fire-weather concerns later in the forecast cycle.
...Southwest and Plains...
A southern stream shortwave trough will move from the southern
Rockies and over the Southwest and far southern Plains D3/Tuesday
and D4/Wednesday. This trough will support a weak lee low bolstering
some gusty westerly winds over parts of eastern NM and west TX ahead
of a weak cold front. Some localized fire-weather concerns are
possible given dry fuels and above normal temperature, though the
area extent is uncertain.
More substantial troughing is expected to develop later into the
week and into next weekend as strong flow aloft continues to move
southward. Lee troughing will increase westerly surface winds across
parts of the High Plains D5/Thursday potentially supporting some
potential for more active fire-weather conditions. However, ensemble
spread increases substantially. Additionally, the increase in
troughing will coincide with the potential for precipitation. Given
this uncertainty, no probabilities will be drawn for now despite the
expectation of a general increase in fire-weather potential next
week.
..Lyons.. 02/08/2026
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