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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 071653

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1053 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026

   Valid 071700Z - 081200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING
   NORTHERN COLORADO AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...

   ...Northern Rockies...
   Westerly flow over parts of the northern Rockies will continue today
   as downslope winds increase to 15-25 mph in spots over parts of
   central MT. However, increasing cloud cover is also expected to
   limit afternoon RH minimums. This should keep fire-weather concerns
   more localized despite unusually dry fuels and the increase in
   surface winds.

   ...Central High Plains...
   Minor changes were made to the Critical Area over parts of CO and
   WY. Morning observations show downslope flow and partial clearing
   over the Plains farther east. Poor overnight humidity recoveries
   (below 30%) will allow for deep mixing today as RH falls further
   this afternoon. Wind gusts of 20-30 mph are likely from southeastern
   WY into western NE and northern CO. This should support a few hours
   of critical conditions given dry fuels over parts of the High
   Plains.

   Otherwise, see the prior outlook for additional information.

   ..Lyons.. 02/07/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper ridging will generally prevail across the Plains states as a
   mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a cut-off upper low
   meanders eastward over the Baja Peninsula today. An embedded
   mid-level impulse will traverse the upper ridge over the central
   Rockies, supporting surface lee troughing over the High Plains
   region. 

   Across the central High Plains corridor, guidance consensus depicts
   widespread 20+ mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds with
   downslope flow for at least a few hours during the afternoon. By
   peak heating, RH may decrease to 15 percent along the
   Colorado/Wyoming/Nebraska border. When considering dry fuels with
   the aforementioned stronger sustained winds in this area, Critical
   highlights appear warranted.

   Farther south across northeastern New Mexico into the northern Texas
   Panhandle, downslope flow will support 15+ mph sustained
   west-southwesterly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH for at least
   a few hours this afternoon. Such conditions warrant the maintenance
   of Elevated highlights given at least marginally dry fuels over the
   southern High Plains.

   Dry air will overspread the Florida Peninsula in association with
   the reinforcement of surface high pressure over the eastern CONUS.
   RH may dip below 30 percent over much of the peninsula, with lower
   values possible locally. Surface wind fields are expected to be
   relatively weak, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook.
   Still, the dry air and receptive fuels will promote localized
   wildfire-spread potential.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 071924

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0124 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026

   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   ...19z Update...
   No changes were made to the prior outlook. Locally strong downslope
   winds of 20-30 mph are possible over parts of WY and northern CO
   Sunday. However, the overlap of strong winds with low humidity and
   dry fuels appears localized. While some brief fire-weather risk is
   possible, no areas will be added. Strong winds may  increase
   overnight into D3/Monday.

   ..Lyons.. 02/07/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper ridging will generally prevail over the central U.S. as the
   East Coast trough continues to progress farther east into the
   Atlantic, and a mid-level cut-off low overspreads northwestern
   Mexico tomorrow (Sunday). As a result, surface troughing will
   persist over the central U.S., with some hints of appreciable
   moisture return likely over the southern Plains. 

   A strong mid-level impulse, with a 50+ kt 500 mb jet streak will
   crest the upper ridge Sunday afternoon, supporting surface low
   development just north of the U.S./Canadian border. 20-25 mph
   sustained westerly surface winds will overspread much of central
   Montana into the northern High Plains Sunday afternoon. RH may only
   dip to around 30 percent over most locales though, which should
   limit the wildfire-spread potential to some degree (hence no
   highlights this outlook). Still, fuels are beginning to dry over
   this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall over the past few
   weeks, so localized wildfire-spread potential is plausible. Elevated
   highlights may be needed in future outlooks if lower RH becomes
   evident in later guidance.

   Otherwise, a dry surface airmass should linger over the Florida
   Peninsula, amid a weak surface wind field, to continue promoting
   localized wildfire potential through Sunday afternoon.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 062153

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0353 PM CST Fri Feb 06 2026

   Valid 081200Z - 141200Z

   Active and progressive mid-level flow is expected across the CONUS
   through the extended forecast period. Shortwave troughing will
   progress through the Rockies and Plains this weekend with more
   troughing expected later next week. Fire weather concerns
   should generally increase for portions of the Southern Plains early
   next week as stronger southwest flow affects the region.

   ...Northern Rockies D3-D4...
   Dry and breezy downslope conditions are possible ahead of a northern
   stream shortwave trough across parts of the northern Rockies
   D3/Sunday and D4/Monday. With westerly flow expected to increase
   behind a departing lee low, downslope winds of 15-30 mph are
   possible. Uncertainty exists on how dry surface conditions will be
   given the arrival of western troughing and snow. However, some
   localized fire-weather concerns are possible given ongoing drought
   and increase in low-level winds, especially D4/Monday over parts of
   WY and CO.

   ...Southwest/Southern Plains D4-D7...
   Increasing mid-level flow over the central Rockies is expected much
   of next week as the large-scale pattern moves toward more active
   southern stream flow. A shortwave trough will move across the
   southern Rockies D4/Monday increasing winds across portions of
   eastern NM and west TX. Episodic troughing and stronger flow aloft
   will continue through much of the week and into next weekend with an
   increase in the fire-weather risk given dry fuels and warm
   temperatures.

   While some fire-weather risk appears possible, increasing ensemble
   member spread and uncertainty regarding the northern extent of
   returning Gulf moisture and precipitation into the southern Plains
   precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time.

   ..Lyons.. 02/06/2026
      




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