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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 130538
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO FAR
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...
...Synopsis...
A robust upper-level short wave trough and associated increased
west-southwest flow aloft will enter the Pacific Northwest and
Northern Rockies today. Wedged between western U.S. troughing and an
amplifying longwave trough over the eastern U.S., upper ridging will
slide over the Rocky Mountain region. Associated with the
substantial mid-upper level pattern, a rapidly evolving lee-side low
in the southern Canadian Prairies will deepen lee surface troughing
over the Great Basin and High Plains while southwesterly flow ahead
of the trough increases. This will present a multifaceted fire
weather setup across portions of the Intermountain West.
...Northern Montana...
Deepening surface troughing across the southern Canadian Prairies
into central MT will usher in stronger southerly to southeasterly
winds of 15-20 mph along with RH reductions of 20-30 percent,
promoting broad Elevated fire weather concerns. Critical highlights
were maintained where an alignment of RH of 20 percent or below and
winds of 20-25 mph are expected across northeastern MT and far
western ND atop receptive fuels. Increasing mid-level moisture ahead
of the upper trough and arrival of a Pacific cold front should
promote isolated to scattered showers and initially high-based
thunderstorms across much of northwestern MT Wednesday where IsoDryT
highlights have been maintained.
...Southwest, Upper Snake River Plain and Colorado River Basin...
As the sharp upper trough and associated mid-level jet shifts over
ID into western MT, deepening surface troughing across the northern
Great Basin and stronger southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will
bring expansive fire weather concerns to much of the Intermountain
West. Dry and breezy southwesterly flow of 15-25 mph (localized 30
mph in the eastern Great Basin) and RH of 10-15 percent will align
with drying fuels to promote elevated fire weather conditions across
portions of the Great Basin and CO River Basin into central WY.
Forecast thermodynamic profiles (with a prominent dry boundary
layer) will support isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms
over higher terrain of western NM, far eastern AZ, central UT, and
southwest WY into the Upper Snake River Plain. Various stages of
green up and mixed curing fuels has resulted in a complicated
fuelscape, resulting in expansive Elevated highlights and a broader
IsoDryT risk area.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/13/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 130540
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper level low will traverse the central United States/Canada
border as a long wave trough across the Eastern Seaboard transitions
to a closed low. Upper ridging will slide over the High Plains and
Upper Midwest, gradually flattening as the Canadian upper low moves
east. At the surface, a strong dry cold front extending south of a
central Canadian surface low will bring widespread fire weather
concerns to the northern/central Plains. A surface low will emerge
over the TX/OK Panhandles, tightening surface pressure gradients
east of the CO/NM higher terrain thus enhancing downslope flow and
deep layer mixing to promote a broad fire weather threat. Increasing
mid-level moisture and subtle forcing associating with an
approaching short wave impulse could aid in high-based thunderstorm
development across portions of the OK/TX Panhandles.
...Northern Plains...
Following the passage of a powerful cold front, a robust mid-level
jet and deep westerly flow will promote fire weather concerns across
the region. Modest RH of 20-30 percent and west winds of 30-45 mph
are possible with higher gusts across the Plains of MT and terrain
favored areas in central and eastern WY. A widespread transition to
green up over southeastern MT into the Dakotas may somewhat mitigate
fuel receptivity. However, in areas with minimal green up and/or
mixed receptive fuels, locally critical fire weather conditions may
emerge where RH could decrease below 15 percent.
...Southwest and Southern High Plains...
Westerly downslope enhanced flow of 15-20 mph and RH reductions of
less than 20 percent amid a dry fuelscape will promote Elevated fire
weather conditions across the region. Farther east, increasing
mid-level moisture along with afternoon heating and resultant
instability should support isolated thunderstorms across the OK/TX
Panhandles on Thursday afternoon, where an IsoDryT risk area has
been introduced.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/13/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 122209
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0509 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026
Valid 141200Z - 201200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough ejects into the northern Plains on Day
3/Thursday while a surface low shifts into Manitoba. At the surface,
a strong, dry cold front extending south of the low sweeps into the
Upper Midwest bringing widespread fire weather concerns to portions
of the northern Plains and central High plains. Breezy west winds
and dry conditions should linger over portions of the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest on Day 4/Friday as the surface low
translates eastward into Ontario. A large scale upper trough enters
the western U.S. by the end of the weekend bringing a fire weather
threat, including breezy southwest winds and very dry conditions, to
portions of the Great Basin and Four Corners regions on Day
5/Saturday, shifting into the Southwest by Day 6/Sunday.
...Day 3/Thursday...
...Northern Plains...
Strong, deep layer westerly winds behind a powerful cold front under
a similarly robust mid-level jet will bring a fire weather threat to
much of Northern Plains on Day 3/Thursday. West winds of 35-45 mph
are possible with higher gusts across the Plains of MT and terrain
favored areas in central and eastern WY. A mixed fuels picture
across the region, including green up across southeastern MT and ND,
could somewhat mitigate the fire environment precluding introduction
of 70% critical probabilities within the expanded 40% area.
...Southwest and Southern High Plains...
Surface lee troughing over the TX Panhandle under modest westerly
flow aloft will promote enhanced southwesterly winds from southern
NM into the OK/TX Panhandles Day 3/Thursday. A subtle embedded short
wave feature shifting into Southern Plains could aid in high-based
thunderstorm development across portions of the OK/TX Panhandles,
with deeper boundary layer moisture shunted to the east. A 10% dry
thunderstorm probability was introduced.
...Day 4/Friday - Northern Plains...
Dry, post-frontal westerly flow will continue to bring fire weather
concerns to portions of the Northern Plains on Day 4/Friday. Fuels
remain largely receptive although notable green up in some areas may
suppress wildfire spread potential.
Day 5-6/Saturday-Sunday - Great Basin, Four Corners and Southwest...
A larger scale trough impinges upon the western CONUS by the
weekend, reintroducing dry conditions and breezy southwest winds
into the Great Basin and Four Corners regions by Day 5/Saturday. As
the trough migrates eastward, the fire weather threat shifts into
the Southwest on Day 6/Sunday, where several days of drying could
support a more receptive fuelscape for wildfire spread.
..Williams.. 05/12/2026
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