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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 280654
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the central U.S. today,
supporting the eastward advancement of a surface low and associated
cold front sweeping across the MS Valley during the day. Strong
northwesterly surface flow will overspread the Plains states,
resulting in cooler temperatures but dry and windy conditions.
Across portions of the southern Plains, behind the cold front, 25+
mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will prevail for several
hours atop dry fuels. Despite 25-35 percent RH, the aforementioned
combination of modestly dry fuels, and strong sustained winds, will
yield high-end Elevated conditions for western and northern Texas
into Oklahoma during the 18Z-00Z (Noon to 6 PM CST) time frame.
..Squitieri.. 12/28/2025
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 280742
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will impinge on the East Coast tomorrow (Monday),
resulting in northwesterly upper flow overspreading the Plains
states through the Day 2 period. Northwesterly flow will also
prevail at the surface over the Plains as surface high pressure
settles over the region. Sustained surface north-northwesterly winds
should peak around 15 mph by afternoon, amid 40 F surface
temperatures and 15-25 percent RH. Given drying fuels, the
aforementioned meteorological conditions should support low-end
Elevated conditions. The best chance for these conditions will be
across the eastern Texas Panhandle into northwest Texas and western
Oklahoma, where Elevated highlights have been introduced.
..Squitieri.. 12/28/2025
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 272134
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
The mid-level ridge across the central United States will finally be
suppressed to the south by the start of this forecast period as a
strong cyclone evolves across the Great Lakes. This strong cyclone
will drive a cold front southward into the Gulf of America and
through the Southeast, ushering in a cold, dry continental airmass
across much of the eastern US. Despite the cooler airmass, elevated
to locally critical fire weather conditions may develop across
portions of the Southern Plains on Monday (D3) and Tuesday (D4).
On Monday the dry airmass will be fully entrenched across the Plains
as a strong surface anticyclone takes hold from the Northern Plains
into the Southern Plains. The result will be minimum afternoon
relative humidity will be lower than on Sunday, falling into the
teens and twenty percent range. Winds, however, will be considerably
weaker than on Sunday, with maximum gusts likely in the 10-20 mph
range. The result will be elevated to locally critical fire
conditions for at least a couple of hours during the afternoon.
On Tuesday the center of the surface anticyclone will slide east of
the Plains resulting in winds turning to the west and southwest.
This will set the stage for a potential dry return flow regime
across western Oklahoma. Minimum relative humidity will once again
be in the teens in the presence of potentially gusty afternoon
winds. This may once again result in elevated to locally critical
fire weather concerns.
Through the rest of the forecast period, the large-scale pattern
across the CONUS will consist of a northwest flow regime owing to a
western ridge and eastern trough. The northwest flow pattern will
limit appreciable moisture return into the eastern US, such that any
embedded disturbance within the larger-scale flow pattern could
result in elevated fire weather concerns. However, the subtlety of
any of these features is such that the timing of any such feature is
below the scale of predictability at these time ranges.
..Marsh.. 12/27/2025
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