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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 261657
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026
Valid 261700Z - 271200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
The Elevated and Critical highlights were expanded northeastward
across parts of northeast and south-central KS respectively. In
south-central KS, temperatures should continue climbing into the
middle/upper 90s while RH falls to around 20 percent ahead of the
front this afternoon. These warm/dry conditions, coupled with
breezy/gusty southwesterly surface winds, will favor critical
conditions atop increasingly receptive fuels. These conditions will
be further exacerbated by the frontal passage and abrupt northerly
wind shift this evening.
The Critical area was also expanded into southeast CO and southwest
KS, where temperatures are already in the lower 90s amid
single-digit RH and breezy westerly surface winds. Given the
pre-frontal warm/dry/breezy conditions atop receptive fuels and the
strong post-frontal wind shift this evening, the expansion is
warranted.
Farther west, the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were expanded
slightly westward along the Front Range. Shallow cumulus is already
developing over the high terrain, and as midlevel moisture and
large-scale ascent impinge on the area, an isolated storm or two
will be possible over the dry fuels.
Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track.
..Weinman.. 03/26/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026/
...Synopsis...
A persistent upper-level ridge will remain centered over northern
Mexico and West Texas today as a subtle, mid-level shortwave trough
shifts eastward across the Four Corners region before ejecting
eastward across the central Great Plains. A second mid-level
shortwave trough will shift southeastward across the upper Great
Lakes region. At the surface, a strong cold front will advance
southward across the Great Plains and Great Basin while a deepening
surface low develops southward in the lee of the Rockies.
...Portions of the southern High Plains...
Dry, downslope flow will be favored ahead of the advancing cold
front, with sustained west-southwest winds of 20-25 mph expected to
overlap very low RH of 5-15% across much of central/eastern New
Mexico into portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, northwestern
Oklahoma, and extreme southern Kansas. Farther south, very low RH of
5-10% will overlap westerly winds of around 20 mph (locally higher
in terrain favored areas) in the lee of the Sacramento Mountains.
With record breaking temperatures in the middle to upper 90s F
aiding in rapid drying of finer fuels through the afternoon,
critical fire weather conditions are expected across these areas.
The cold front pushing south across the southern Plains will bring
an abrupt northerly wind shift to the region through early Friday,
with potential impacts to existing wildfires or potential new
ignitions.
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected farther north across
much of southeastern Colorado and western Kansas where westerly
surface winds of around 15-20 mph are forecast to overlap receptive
fuels and RH of 10-15%. Farther to the east across portions of
south-central Kansas, western Oklahoma, and into portions of Texas
Big Country, RH values are forecast to be more marginal (ranging
between 20-30%) owing to some northward moisture return. However,
strong south-southwesterly surface winds of 20-30 mph and receptive
fuels should still support elevated fire weather concerns. A strong
low-level jet (30-40+ kts at 850 mb) coupled with boundary layer
mixing will also support occasional gusts of 35-45 mph across
portions of this area, especially from western Oklahoma into
south-central Kansas.
...Eastern Great Basin...
Sustained westerly surface winds will increase to 15-25 mph (locally
higher) ahead of the approaching cold front amid drying fuels and RH
values of 10-20%. This will support elevated fire weather conditions
across portions of the eastern Great Basin southward into portions
of the Southwest.
...Southwest to south-central Kansas...
A very dry boundary layer will be in place across southern Kansas
before the cold front arrives late this afternoon. The cold front,
impinging mid-level shortwave trough, and some mid-level moisture
may support the development of isolated, dry high-based showers and
thunderstorms across portions of southwest and south-central Kansas
by late this afternoon/evening. Minimal precipitation over a very
receptive fuelscape preceded by record to near-record high
temperatures near 100 F should support a higher ignition efficiency
across the area.
...Northeastern/east-central Colorado...
Latest guidance indicates that the approaching mid-level shortwave
trough coupled with mid-level moisture and a deep, dry boundary
layer (LCLs as high as 3-4 km AGL) may support the development of
isolated, dry showers and thunderstorms amid meager instability
(50-150 J/kg MUCAPE) across portions of northeastern and
east-central Colorado this afternoon. Minimal precipitation and
critical fuels should support elevated ignition efficiency.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 261954
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF WESTERN OK...THE EASTERN
TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...
A Critical area was added for parts of western OK into the eastern
half of the TX Panhandle and vicinity. Despite relatively cooler
post-frontal temperatures and the potential for marginal RH (around
20-25 percent), 20-25 mph sustained north-northeasterly surface
winds (with higher gusts) will still promote critical fire-weather
conditions, given receptive fuels and limited forecast rainfall
during the morning. Farther north across the central Plains, locally
critical conditions are expected within the broad Elevated risk
area. However, confidence in an overlap of the stronger winds and
low RH is too low for an additional Critical area at this time.
Elevated highlights were added over portions of southwestern NM and
southeastern AZ, where dry/breezy conditions are expected in the
wake of a backdoor cold front. The latest high-resolution guidance
is in good agreement, depicting a narrow/focused corridor of 15-20
mph sustained southeasterly surface winds and around 20 percent RH
during the afternoon. These dry/breezy conditions atop receptive
fuels will promote a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions.
For additional details, see the previous discussion below.
..Weinman.. 03/26/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0235 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging centered over northern Mexico and West Texas
will remain in place through D2/Friday as a mid-level shortwave
trough advances southeastward across the Great Lakes region and into
the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front will move offshore of
the Gulf Coast while strong high pressure shifts southeastward from
the northern Great Plains into the Midwest.
...Central Great Plains...
Broad post-frontal flow from the north-northeast amid a dry air mass
will encompass portions of the central/southern Great Plains on
Friday. Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph coupled with reduced RH
values of 20-25% (locally as low as 15%) and receptive fuels are
expected to support a broad area of elevated to locally critical
fire weather concerns from eastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa
southward to western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Strong 850 mb
flow of 30-40+ kts will also support the potential for occasional
gusts to 30-35 mph, especially across the southern portions of the
Elevated highlights.
...Eastern Arizona into western New Mexico...
A backdoor cold front is forecast to move south-southwestward
through portions of the Southwest on Friday. Latest guidance
indicates southeasterly winds will strengthen to 15-25 mph across
portions of eastern Arizona and western New Mexico following the
frontal passage, especially in the vicinity of the White Mountains
and Gila Region. While RH values are forecast to increase behind the
front, there may be a brief period of time where the increased winds
overlap lingering low RH of 15-20%, supporting the potential for
localized elevated fire weather concerns. Uncertainty regarding the
timing of the frontal passage as well as the duration of overlap of
winds/RH precludes the addition of Elevated highlights at this time,
but trends will continue to be monitored.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 262141
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0441 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
...Day 3/Saturday...
In the wake of a robust midlevel trough moving across the Northeast,
surface high pressure will shift eastward from the mid MS Valley to
the East Coast. At the same time, broad/enhanced zonal midlevel flow
across the northern/central Rockies will promote lee troughing over
the High Plains. Between the surface high and lee troughing, a tight
pressure gradient and strong low-level jet will yield 20+ mph
sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 20-25
percent RH across much of the central Plains. Given dry/receptive
fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected.
Over the Southeast, dry and breezy conditions are expected along the
southern periphery of the surface high. This will likely result in a
broad area of elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather
conditions during the afternoon.
...Days 3-5/Saturday-Monday - Central Rockies/High Plains...
A prolonged period of moderate midlevel westerly flow is expected
across the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains.
Several embedded impulses will promote the development of lee
cyclones/troughing across the region, resulting in dry/breezy
downslope flow and the potential for elevated to critical
fire-weather conditions each afternoon.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
At the leading edge of a midlevel moisture plume emanating from the
eastern Pacific, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across
parts of the Southwest on Day 4/Sunday. The midlevel moisture atop a
dry antecedent boundary layer will support dry/high-based
thunderstorms. Thunderstorm potential will persist across the region
into next week, though increasing boundary-layer RH limits
confidence in the associated fire risk.
..Weinman.. 03/26/2026
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