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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 060550

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A large upper-level trough positioned over the Great Lakes region
   will shift east throughout the day, while a broad zone of enhanced
   mid-level flow overspreads much of the northern Great Plains. At the
   surface, a cold front will continue to progress southeastward,
   draped across parts of the Ohio Valley early in the day and reaching
   parts of the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the period. Consequently,
   gusty post-frontal northwesterly winds will manifest throughout the
   afternoon/evening across a broad area of the upper Midwest.
   Sustained winds of 15 mph with RH values into the 20-30 percent
   range will be common across this region amid fuels that appear at
   least marginally receptive to large-fire spread. Therefore, the area
   delineating elevated fire-weather conditions has been maintained for
   the region, with a minor expansion made into parts of northern Ohio
   and southeastern portions of the LP of Michigan.

   ..Karstens.. 10/06/2024
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 060550

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   ...Synopsis...
   A large upper-level trough over the Northeast will continue to
   amplify through the day, while a large upper-level ridge builds into
   the northern Rockies and northern Great Plains. A mid-level
   short-wave trough will sweep across parts of the Midwest into the
   central Great Plains throughout the day. At the surface, warm/dry
   conditions will develop across the southern/central High Plains
   during the afternoon, as post-frontal return flow develops in
   advance of the aforementioned short wave. This may produce locally
   elevated fire-weather conditions for parts of the central High
   Plains, but such conditions appear too localized to introduce an
   elevated area at this time.

   ..Karstens.. 10/06/2024


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 052054

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0354 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

   Valid 071200Z - 131200Z

   A very dry airmass will remain entrenched across much of the central
   and western United States this week. This airmass will allow rapid
   temperature rises during the afternoon resulting in relative
   humidity falling into the 20-30 percent range (and locally lower)
   most afternoons. The lack of any large-scale synoptic troughs moving
   through the mid-level flow will preclude any critical fire weather
   probabilities at this time. 

   By late this week, into next weekend, guidance suggests a cold front
   will move across the Plains. An increase in surface wind speeds will
   almost certainly accompany the frontal passage (both pre- and
   post-frontal). Thus, as the timing of this synoptic wave/surface
   front, becomes more clear, at least elevated fire-weather highlights
   will be needed. 

   Additionally, surface winds may increase by next weekend across
   inland Southern California into the Great Basin. However, confidence
   in timing/strength of this trough remains low.

   ..Marsh.. 10/05/2024
      




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