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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 211651
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1051 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
Valid 211700Z - 221200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes were needed to the Day 1 Outlook. Enhanced northwesterly
flow aloft and associated lee surface troughing in the central High
Plains will support breezy west-northwest winds across southeast WY,
southwest NE, and northeast CO, but limited RH reductions to around
20 percent, cooler temperatures and cloud cover should mitigate a
broader fire weather threat today. Farther south, brief and
localized elevated fire weather conditions promoted by dry,
downslope flow are still expected in favored terrain along the CO
Front Range and Sangre De Cristo Mountains. Although relative
humidity in the single digits will be present, a more expansive
alignment of west winds of 15-20 mph and receptive fuels should
remain limited.
..Williams.. 01/21/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/
...Synopsis...
A northwesterly jet streak will overspread the northern/central
Plains today, while a related cold front moves across the region.
Along/immediately ahead of the front, breezy/gusty northwesterly
surface winds and around 25 percent RH may yield locally elevated
fire-weather conditions across parts of southeast WY, southwest NE,
and northeast CO. However, the overall risk should be spatially and
temporally limited by the southward-moving cold front.
Farther south, enhanced northwesterly flow aloft and related lee
troughing over the central High Plains will also lead to locally
dry/breezy conditions in the immediate lee of the Front Range and
Sangre de Cristo Mountains in CO and northern NM.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 211954
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
An intensely cold air mass accompanied by expanding cloud cover and
light precipitation will move into the northern/central plains and
Upper Midwest Thursday limiting fire weather concerns. Locally
breezy downslope winds and drying will continue to impact locations
in immediate leeward locations and foothills of the Rockies across
southern CO and NM, although cloud cover and marginally dry fuels
will limit a larger fire weather threat.
..Williams.. 01/21/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/
...Synopsis...
An arctic air mass will begin to infiltrate the northern and central
Plains on Thursday, limiting the fire-weather risk across much of
the CONUS. The only exception will be in the lee of the southern
Rockies in NM, where westerly/downslope flow and lee troughing will
favor locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 212116
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0316 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
Valid 231200Z - 291200Z
A pronounced arctic air mass will filter into much of CONUS late
week while a large scale upper-level trough deepens across the
western U.S. on Day 3/Friday, translating eastward over the weekend
and reaching the East Coast early next week. The trough will
facilitate overrunning of East Pacific and Gulf moisture over the
shallower cold air mass to bring a broad, mixed precipitation event
across the Southwest and southern Plains beginning on Days
3-4/Friday-Saturday. Development of a surface trough/low across the
Deep South and subsequent eastward advancement of the upper-level
trough should support additional widespread precipitation across the
Southeast, Mid Atlantic and Northeast for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday.
This will considerably reduce fire weather concerns across the
majority of the eastern U.S. through the middle of next week. Longer
term ensemble guidance does suggest a return to seasonably warmer
and drier conditions across the central High Plains as early as Day
6/Monday, along with the potential for breezy downslope winds under
a broad northwest flow aloft regime. However, uncertainty in spatial
distribution of precedent precipitation across the region through
this weekend reduces predictability of the fire weather threat for
this region in the longer term.
..Williams.. 01/21/2026
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