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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 261639

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1139 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

   Valid 261700Z - 271200Z

   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
   THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...Southern Plains...
   A stalled frontal boundary across northwest TX and the TX Panhandle
   introduced extensive cloud cover and much higher relative humidity
   north of the boundary overnight. Current satellite and surface
   observation trends show a gradual erosion of the cloud cover across
   southern KS and the OK/TX Panhandles. Latest short term model
   guidance suggests a limited northeastward extent and onset of the
   overall fire weather threat as a warm front evolves this afternoon.
   This should restrict duration and northeast extent of fire-effective
   weather conditions across the northeastern TX and adjacent OK
   Panhandles. Thus, critical and elevated highlights have been trimmed
   across portions of western OK and the TX/OK Panhandles for this
   forecast update.

   Extremely Critical fire weather conditions, including southwest
   winds of 30-40 mph, with localized gusts near 60 mph, are still
   expected across portions the southern High Plains today. The winds,
   aided by an intense mid-level jet and associated lee surface cyclone
   development across southeastern CO, will combine with surface RH
   reductions of 10-20% to promote an extremely critical fire weather
   threat across portions of eastern NM into far western TX Panhandle
   this afternoon. A broader critical fire weather concern is still
   expected across much of the southern High Plains into central and
   southern NM, with no additional highlight changes.

   ..Williams.. 04/26/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected
   today across portions of the southern High Plains. Early-morning
   water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude upper wave traversing
   the lower CO River Valley. This feature will migrate across the
   Southwest through the day as an attendant mid-level jet noses into
   the southern High Plains by peak heating. This will promote steady
   deepening of a lee cyclone across eastern CO/western KS through the
   day, resulting in strengthening west/southwest winds across the
   southern High Plains. Consensus from latest guidance and ensemble
   output is that widespread 20-25 mph sustained winds are likely
   across the region with gusts upwards of 35-45 mph possible. A swath
   of 30-35 mph winds will likely emerge across eastern NM into far
   western TX under the approaching mid-level jet and within the lee of
   the Sacramento and southern Sandia Manzano Mountains, and will
   support a corridor of extremely critical fire weather conditions.

   A dry air mass has been in place across the Southwest/southern High
   Plains over the past several days with afternoon RH minimums largely
   in the single digits to low teens. Increasing downslope
   warming/drying will promote further RH reductions this afternoon.
   Although most guidance depicts afternoon RH minimums in the low to
   mid teens, RH values will most likely fall into the 5-10% range
   again today.

   Although some light precipitation is ongoing early Sunday morning
   across northeast NM and parts of the TX Panhandle, MRMS QPE suggests
   little rainfall is reaching the surface. Given preceding days of
   dry/windy conditions and increasing ERC values (largely near the
   85th percentile), receptive fuels will be in place and will support
   the fire weather concern.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 261936

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0236 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
   THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO
   WESTERN TEXAS...

   ...Southwest and Southern High Plains...
   Strong mid-level flow of 55-65 knots will linger over the Southwest
   and Southern Plains in the wake of a departing upper-level short
   wave, while a surface cyclone presses northeastward into the Upper
   Midwest by late Monday. As a result, downslope enhanced drying
   within broad west-southwest flow will impact this region Monday,
   promoting an enhanced fire weather threat within a persistent dry
   fuelscape. West winds of 15-20 mph combined with drier conditions
   relative to today (minimum 5-15% RH by peak heating) are most likely
   across two corridors in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
   into the TX Panhandle and downwind of the Sacramento/Guadalupe
   Mountains, where Critical Highlights were introduced.

   ..Williams.. 04/26/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Dry and breezy conditions will persist across portions of the
   southern High Plains on Monday, supporting another day of Elevated
   to Critical fire weather concerns. The upper wave currently
   approaching the Southwest is forecast to quickly eject across the
   Plains and into the Midwest late Sunday into Monday. As this occurs,
   a surface cyclone will migrate into the upper MS River Valley by
   Monday evening with a trailing cold front pushing south across the
   Southern Plains. Ahead of the front, 15-20 mph westerly winds will
   be common across the southern High Plains and into portions of OK
   and TX. 

   Little to no moisture recovery will support another day of 5-15% RH
   minimums over a region with dry fuels. Consequently, widespread
   elevated fire weather conditions appear likely. Although the primary
   synoptic low will be increasingly displaced from the region through
   late afternoon, residual strong winds within the boundary layer will
   likely support areas of 20-25 mph winds with gusts upwards of 30
   mph. Based on latest ensemble guidance, a corridor of sustained 20
   mph winds appears likely roughly along portions of the I-40 corridor
   from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. Given this ensemble signal
   and some recent fire activity within this corridor, Critical
   highlights were introduced.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 262117

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0417 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

   Valid 281200Z - 041200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level wave and associated robust jet core will eject into the
   southern and central Plains on Day 3/Tuesday. A resultant lee
   surface tough evolves across the southern High Plains. The
   deep-layer westerly flow will support dry and breezy conditions
   across much of NM into western TX Tuesday. A broad upper-level
   trough emerges across the eastern U.S. Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday
   while a surface trough and cold front promote wetting rains for much
   of the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast and portions of the
   Southeast, reducing fire weather concerns. Farther west, an
   upper-level trough, a stalled frontal boundary at the surface and
   sufficient atmospheric moisture should promote widespread wetting
   rains across portions of the central and southern High Plains
   beginning Day 5/Thursday, lasting through Day 6/Friday. Some
   locations across the southern and central High Plains have not
   observed significant rainfall in the last 4 months where fuels
   remain very dry and green up continues to be delayed.

   ...Day 3/Tuesday - Southern Plains...
   A 50-60 knot mid-level jet at the base of a progressive upper-level
   wave pushing into the central Plains will reinforce dry and breezy
   westerly flow across much of NM and southern High Plains on Day
   3/Tuesday, where a broad 40% critical probability area remains. A
   drier air mass ushered in by Tuesday should support very low RH
   during the day, likely 10% or below, across southeastern NM,
   stretching into west TX. Poor RH recoveries tonight and Day 2/Monday
   night leading up to Tuesday, should further precondition the
   fuelscape to wildfire spread. 70% critical probabilities have been
   introduced where forecast confidence is higher in overlap of low RH
   and downslope enhanced west winds of 15-25 mph across southeastern
   NM into west TX.

   ..Williams.. 04/26/2026
      




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