ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 200719

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0119 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A dry and breezy post-frontal airmass associated with a jet maximum
   exiting the southern Plains will be responsible for at least
   Elevated fire-weather concerns across portions of far southwest
   Texas on Saturday. Relative humidity of 15-20% is expected with
   northerly surface winds of 15 MPH (gusting to 20). While there is
   generally a gradient of fuel readiness across the area, with drier
   fuels in the west, these conditions will still pose an Elevated
   threat for wildfire ignition and spread during the afternoon.

   ..Halbert.. 02/20/2026

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 192154

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0354 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

   Valid 211200Z - 271200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   As upper-level troughing shifts eastward, a dry cold front sweeps
   across the Southern Plains bringing dry northerly flow and fire
   weather concerns to southern TX Day 3/Saturday. Widespread rainfall
   across much of the Southeast should temporarily alleviate fire
   weather concerns over the weekend. Rainfall should be limited
   farther south across the Gulf Coast and FL, with particular concern
   for FL where dry-post frontal northerly flow could increase the fire
   weather threat for Day 4/Sunday and 5/Monday. The upper ridge will
   begin to break down D6/Sunday, introducing dry return flow and
   downslope winds across the Central and Southern Plains, potentially
   increasing fire weather concerns through the extended period.

   ...Day 3/Saturday - Southern Texas...
   Post frontal northerly winds behind a prominent dry cold front move
   into TX Day 3/Saturday. Heightened fire weather concerns should
   exist across portions of central and southern TX where RH will drop
   to 10-20 percent with sustained northerly winds of 10-20 mph spread
   across a dry fuelscape. 40% Critical probabilities have been
   maintained.

   ...Day 4/Sunday and Day 5/Monday - Florida and Southern Plains...
   Deep layer northwesterly flow develops across the Southeast and FL
   behind a surface cold front underlying an amplifying upper-level
   trough across the Northeast. Widespread wetting rainfall from Day
   4/Sunday is expected to remain north of the Gulf Coast, with minimal
   precipitation across FL. A cold front will pass through the northern
   FL peninsula early afternoon D4/Sunday bringing post frontal
   northwesterly winds and low RH. Coincident dry fuels should increase
   the fire weather threat where 40% Critical probabilities have been
   added. D5/Monday dry northwesterly flow is expected to shift to
   southern FL where even lower RH is anticipated, maintaining 40%
   Critical probabilities. There is uncertainty in the RH reductions
   under a cooler, dry return flow pattern across the Southern Plains
   on D5/Monday, which precludes introductions of Critical
   probabilities at this time.

   ...Day 6/Tuesday - Southern and Central Plains...
   Fire weather concerns reemerge across portions of the central and
   southern High Plains via dry return flow and increasing westerly
   winds aloft as the upper-level ridge across the Intermountain West
   breaks down. 40% critical probabilities have been added where a
   combination of low RH and strong westerly winds overlap dry fuels in
   eastern NM, TX Panhandle, and southwestern OK. Beneath the
   upper-level ridge a surface low will emerge in the lee of the
   northern Rockies, tightening a surface pressure gradient across
   eastern WY and western NE. Strong downslope winds may occur, though 
   cooler temperatures and RH uncertainties have limited the
   introduction of Critical probabilities for now.

   ...Day 7/8 Wednesday/Thursday - West Texas...
   40% probabilities have been introduced across the West TX region on
   D7/Wednesday as long-range models are hinting at hot, dry, windy
   conditions. Increasing northwest flow aloft and induced surface lee
   troughing will support increased fire weather concerns. Uncertainty
   is too high for D8/Thursday, though the anticipated pattern could
   suggest an ongoing fire weather threat through the forecast period.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 02/19/2026