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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 131613
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026
Valid 131700Z - 141200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Southeast...
A dry air mass associated with surface high pressure moving into the
Mid Atlantic will support minimum relative humidity as low as 15
percent across portions of the southeast and northern FL today.
Although dry fuels are present, a diffuse surface pressure gradient
will promote light winds of 10 mph or less across much of the
Southeast, limiting a broader fire weather threat. However, brief
and localized elevated fire weather concerns are still possible
across the coastal plains of GA/SC where sustained northeast winds
of 10 mph, relative humidity below 20 percent and dry fuels align.
...Southern Plains...
Increasing mid and upper-level moisture and associated cloud cover
ahead of a pronounced short wave trough entering the Southwest is
observed overspreading the Southern Plains. At the surface, lee
troughing across the central/southern High Plains continues to usher
in deeper boundary layer moisture from the Gulf into TX/OK. These
factors should largely subdue fire weather concerns today, with
wetting rains expected tonight into Day 2 across much of the
Southern Plains as the short wave ejects into the region.
..Williams.. 02/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1214 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet max will traverse
the southwestern CONUS through the day today, bringing mid-level
moisture from the Pacific. Additionally, with the lee troughing
across the southern high Plains, moist air is expected to surge
northward cross the southern Plains. This is expected to promote
widespread precipitation in these regions, minimizing fire weather
concerns. Elsewhere, surface high pressure associated with
northwesterly flow aloft should settle across the eastern CONUS, and
the light winds associated with the high pressure should keep fire
concerns minimal.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 131946
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...Rio Grande Valley...
A mid-level trough and associated jet will move into the Southern
Plains Saturday. A corresponding deepening surface low across the
OK/TX Red River Valley will aid in pushing a trailing cold front and
attendant drier air mass into south-central TX by Saturday evening.
Substantial wetting rainfall should remain to the north of the Rio
Grande Saturday, although some uncertainty remains in RH reductions
lower than 20-25% by the afternoon. Confined elevated highlights to
lower elevations near the Rio Grande in south-central TX where RH is
more likely to reach 20% amid northwest winds of 15-20 mph in the
post-frontal environment.
..Williams.. 02/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1215 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the southern Plains
through the day on Saturday. This will mix a dryline eastward across
portions of central and south Texas by afternoon. To the west of
this dryline along the Rio Grande Valley, winds are expected to gust
to 25-30 mph along with RH rapidly decreasing to near 15-25% in the
presence of dry fuels. Currently, it appears as though most of the
precipitation through Saturday evening will remain to the north and
east of this region, though some light precipitation may fall on
Saturday morning. This represents some uncertainty as to the overall
fire weather risk, however, given the dry antecedent conditions,
will introduce an Elevated area across portions of the Rio Grande
Valley.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 132202
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0402 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 211200Z
...Synopsis...
A persistent upper-level troughing regime is likely to evolve across
the western U.S., with several short wave features ejecting into the
Plains through next week. Enhanced and broad mid-level flow over the
southern U.S. along with subsequent lee cyclogenesis events are
expected to a bring multi-day fire weather threat to portions of the
central and southern Plains through at least Day 7/Thursday.
...Day 3/Sunday - Central Plains and Colorado Front Range...
Increasing mid-level winds over the Southern Rockies ahead of a
broad trough approaching the West Coast, along with surface trough
development across the Northern Plains should favor dry, downslope
flow across the CO Front Range. The dry and breezy conditions will
likely align with dry fuels to support an increasing fire weather
threat for the Front Range where 40% critical probabilities have
been introduced. Enhanced fire weather concerns remain farther
northeast across western NE and adjacent areas where a broader
west-southwest wind field associated with the surface trough/low
aligns with dry conditions and fuels.
...Day 4/Monday - Eastern NM and the TX Panhandle...
A negatively tilted upper-level trough heads into the West Coast on
Day 4/Monday. Increasing mid-level flow on the nose of a pronounced
mid-level jet along with continued lee troughing should promote dry
and breezy conditions across portions of eastern NM and the TX
Panhandle on Monday. The dry, downslope-favored flow from the
west-southwest along with minimal preceding rainfall and abundant
dry fuels necessitated introduction of a 40% critical probability
area for eastern NM and the TX Panhandle vicinity.
...Day 5-7/Tuesday-Thursday - Southern and Central Plains...
Forecast confidence is increasing for a more expansive fire weather
threat for the southern and central Plains for Day 5/Tuesday.
Pronounced surface cyclogenesis across the central Plains along with
an impinging 90-100 knot jet core at the base of a mid-level trough
will likely produce a broad fire weather concern from southeastern
WY, eastern CO and particularly across the southern Plains. A 70%
critical probability area has been introduced into far eastern NM
and the northwest TX Panhandle where alignment of deep-layer
southwesterly flow (including critical low relative humidity),
dry/receptive fuels and absence of recent precipitation is most
likely. A dry, downslope regime should remain over the southern High
Plains on Day 6/Wednesday imparting additional fire weather threats
to eastern NM and the TX Panhandle area. A similar synoptic setup as
Day 5/Tuesday likely emerges for Day 7/Thursday, where another
mid-level short wave and attendant jet max enters the Southern
Plains. An emergent deepening cyclone across the Central Plains
should yield expanding dry, southwest flow across the Southern
Plains where 40% critical probabilities have been introduced.
..Williams.. 02/13/2026
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