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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 281642
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026
Valid 281700Z - 291200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...Southeast...
A cooler, but very dry continental air mass continues to filter into
much of the eastern U.S. as high pressure settles into the Ohio
River Valley as an upper-level trough departs the Eastern Seaboard.
Sustained northeasterly post-frontal winds at 10-15 mph with higher
gusts and low relative humidity already in the 20-30% range will
affect a substantial portion the Southeast from the Carolinas, GA,
AL and into the Lower MS River Valley. The strongest corridor of
northeasterly winds, reaching 20 mph at times, will be across the
coastal plains of SC, GA and into the FL Panhandle, supporting
critical fire weather conditions within dry fuels and extreme
drought. A slight northeastward expansion of Critical Highlights
were made into central SC based on current observations and short
term guidance trends.
...Central/Northern Great Plains...
No significant changes were necessary from previous outlook. An
expansive region of dry return flow commencing between surface high
pressure across the OH River Valley and nascent lee troughing across
the central/northern High Plains, will persist through today under a
reinforcing southerly low-level jet. South to southwest winds of
20-30 mph with relative humidity of 15-20% will bring critical fire
weather conditions to much of western/northern KS, eastern NE into
portions of the Upper Midwest. Marginally lower wind speeds and
slightly higher RH will still support and Elevated fire weather
threat adjacent to this Critical area.
...Southeastern Wyoming...
Dry and breezy conditions developing under modest mid-level flow
supported by a well-mixed boundary layer are expected across much of
central and southern WY today. The strongest corridor of west winds
between 20-25 mph coupled with minimum RH of 10-15% will bring
critical fire weather conditions to southeastern WY today. No
significant changes to the Critical and surrounding Elevated
Highlights were necessary with previous forecast on track.
...Southern Great Basin and Arizona Strip...
Dry conditions with RH around 10-15% and southwest winds of around
15 mph, locally 20-25 mph under a passing mid-level short wave will
bring an elevated fire weather threat to portions of southeastern
NV, southwest UT and northwestern AZ through this afternoon.
..Williams.. 03/28/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026/
...Synopsis...
Enhanced, zonal mid-level flow across the central/northern Rockies
will support lee troughing over portions of the High Plains today.
Farther east, surface high pressure will shift from the Midwest to
the East Coast in the wake of a mid-level trough moving across the
Northeast, with a tightened pressure gradient and strong low-level
jet developing between the surface high and lee troughing.
...Central/northern Great Plains...
The aforementioned surface pressure gradient and low-level jet
across the Great Plains will support strong southerly flow of 20-30
mph across much of the central/northern Great Plains. With dry,
receptive fuels and RH values forecast to fall to 15-20%, widespread
critical fire weather conditions are forecast from portions of the
Oklahoma Panhandle northeastward into portions of southeastern South
Dakota, southwestern Minnesota, and western Iowa. Strong 850 mb flow
of 30-40+ kts coupled with boundary layer mixing will promote
occasional gusts to 35-45 mph. Sustained southerly surface winds of
15-25 mph and reduced RH values of 20-25% will bring elevated fire
weather concerns to adjacent areas of the central/northern Great
Plains and western Corn Belt, except for portions of south-central
and southeastern Kansas that saw appreciable rainfall Thursday
evening.
...Southeast...
A dry and breezy post-frontal regime will bring widespread fire
weather concerns to much of the Southeast today, with sustained
northeasterly surface winds of 10-15 mph, low RH of 25-35%, and dry,
antecedent conditions supporting elevated fire weather concerns
across much of the region. Elevated conditions may be locally
tempered across portions of NC that saw more appreciable rainfall on
Friday. Critical conditions are expected across portions of southern
SC into southern GA and the central Florida Panhandle where a
corridor of enhanced northeasterly winds of 15-20 mph and RH values
as low as 20% are forecast.
...Central/northern High Plains...
Modest mid-level flow across the central/northern Rockies will
support a dry, downslope regime across portions of the central and
northern High Plains this afternoon. The return of above normal
temperatures coupled with sustained westerly winds of 20-25 mph amid
RH values of 10-15% will bring at least a few hours of critical fire
weather conditions to portions of southeastern Wyoming, especially
in the lee of the Laramie Mountains. Deep boundary layer mixing and
the previously mentioned mid-level flow will also support periodic
gusts of 30-35 mph across this region. Elevated fire weather
conditions are expected farther west across much of western Wyoming
and in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southeastern
Colorado where sustained winds of 15-25 mph are forecast to overlap
receptive fuels and reduced RH of 15-20%.
...Southern Great Basin and Arizona Strip...
A subtle, mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward along
the northwestern periphery of a building ridge. This feature will
support dry and breezy southwest flow across portions of the
southern Great Basin and northwestern Arizona. Southwest winds of
15-25 mph and RH values of 10-15% (locally lower) will bring
elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon amid increasingly
dry fuels.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 282002
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING...
...Southeastern Wyoming...
Critical Highlights were added to portions of southeastern WY. Deep
layer westerly flow at the apex of an upper-level ridge will persist
over the Northern Rockies through D2/Sunday. Despite some high cloud
cover moving into the Intermountain West, a dry, well mixed-boundary
layer should promote stronger surface winds, particularly across
southeastern WY, where near record high temperatures and relative
humidity of around 15% will align to promote critical fire weather
conditions for Sunday.
...Eastern Great Basin...Northwestern Arizona into western WY and CO
Western Slope...
Existing elevated fire weather highlights were expanded to include
eastern UT and western CO. A very dry and warm air mass under the
ridge across the Intermountain West will persist into Sunday. A
weak, mid-level wave will bolster southwest winds across the region
as relative humidity falls into the 15-20% range by afternoon,
possibly as low as 10% in some lower elevation areas. West-southwest
winds of 15-20 mph will combine with low RH, near record high
temperatures and drying fuels to bring an elevated fire weather
threat to portions of southeastern NV and northwestern AZ into
southern UT, western CO and western WY.
...Blue Ridge Mountains and Eastern Tennessee Valley...
Dry return flow commences Sunday across the Southeast as surface
high pressure slides east of the Mid Atlantic. Southerly winds up to
15 mph coupled with relative humidity as low as 15% will support an
elevated fire weather threat across the eastern TN Valley and
adjacent Cumberland Plateau areas amid an increasingly dry
fuelscape.
...Southern Plains...
Surface lee troughing across the Southern Plains and persistently
westerly flow aloft should bring dry downslope flow into eastern NM
northward into south-central CO along and east of the leeward slopes
of the Sangre De Cristo Mountains. West winds of around 15 mph and
relative humidity as low as 10% will pose an elevated fire weather
threat for Sunday. Extended Elevated Highlights into the TX
Panhandle and western OK as southwest winds of 10-20 mph amid RH
between 15-25% develops in response to lee troughing across the
Central Plains. A return of deeper Gulf moisture across eastern
TX/OK should limit RH reductions, mitigating the overall fire
weather threat.
...Southern Arizona...
Increasing mid and upper-level moisture across the Desert Southwest
along with afternoon heating and resultant instability should
support isolated showers and thunderstorms across southern AZ Sunday
afternoon. PWATs of 0.5-0.8" with a prominent dry sub-cloud layer
should limit precipitation, allowing some threat of dry
thunderstorms to evolve. Fuels remain receptive with isolated dry
thunderstorm threat now primarily within southern AZ based on latest
model guidance.
..Williams.. 03/28/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0235 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026/
...Synopsis...
A persistent upper-level ridge will begin to slide southeastward to
the far southern Great Plains on D2/Sunday, while enhanced, zonal
flow persists across the northern Rockies. At the surface, high
pressure will move offshore of the Mid-Atlantic Coast, bringing
return flow to much of the southern Plains and Southeast. A cold
front will begin to push southward across the northern Great Plains
and Northwest.
...Portions of the central/northern High Plains...
Modest westerly, mid-level flow will persist across portions of the
central/northern Rockies on D2/Sunday, favoring a dry, downslope
regime across much of Wyoming. Westerly winds of 15-25 mph are
expected to overlap low RH values of 10-20%. With receptive fuels in
place across the region, this will bring elevated fire weather
concerns to much of southern and central Wyoming into extreme
northern Colorado and the extreme western Nebraska Panhandle.
Consideration was given to a localized area of Critical highlights
across portions of central/southeast Wyoming, but uncertainty
remains regarding a more widespread overlap of RH less than 15% and
20+ mph winds at this time. Regardless, localized critical
conditions appears possible, and trends will be monitored for the
possibility of a future upgrade.
Some high-res guidance suggests that locally elevated conditions may
occur in association with a brief period of stronger surface winds
(15-20 mph) funneling down the North Platte River Valley farther
east across western Nebraska. However, most current guidance
suggests that winds will largely remain less than 15 mph across this
region. Thus, elevated highlights were withheld at this time despite
minimum RH values forecast around 10-20%.
...Southern Great Basin...
Dry and breezy flow is forecast across portions of the southern
Great Basin Sunday afternoon ahead of a weak, mid-level shortwave
trough. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected where
southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph, very low RH of 15-20%, and
abnormally dry fuels align.
...Northeastern New Mexico...
While mid-level flow is forecast to remain rather weak across much
of the southern Rockies, a corridor of marginally enhanced westerly
flow aloft is forecast to support dry, downslope winds across
portions of northeastern New Mexico. Sustained westerly winds of
15-20 mph are forecast to overlap very low RH of 10-15% for at least
a few hours Sunday afternoon. With receptive fuels in place across
the region, this will bring elevated fire weather concerns to
portions of northeastern New Mexico.
...Southern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico...
Weak southwesterly flow aloft along the northwestern periphery of an
upper-level ridge is forecast to yield increasing mid/upper level
Pacific moisture, with PWATs forecast to range from 0.5-0.8" by
Sunday afternoon. While better moisture appears to be delayed until
later Sunday night and into Monday, latest guidance depicts the
development of weak instability (~50-150 J/kg MUCAPE) across
portions of southern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico late Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation totals are forecast to be light, with deep,
dry boundary layers and LCLs around 3 km AGL. This should support at
least some potential for isolated dry thunder atop dry, receptive
fuels.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 282143
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0443 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
...Synopsis...
Model guidance continues to suggest a more active upper-level wave
pattern emerging next week across the CONUS, ushering in
opportunities for much needed precipitation across the western U.S.
and portions of the Plains where fuels remain very dry. An embedded
mid-level trough moving through the Northern Rockies and surface lee
troughing across the Plains will present a broad fire weather
concern for D3/Monday across portions of the eastern UT into WY and
along the central and southern High Plains. The overall fire weather
threat becomes more confined to portions of the Southwest as cooler
temperatures and precipitation gradually reduce fire weather
concerns across much of the contiguous U.S., as a deeper upper-level
trough moves into the Northwest mid to late next week.
...Day 3/Monday...
...Eastern UT/Western CO, WY and Central/Southern High Plains...
An embedded mid-level short wave trough moving through the Northern
Rockies along with deepening surface lee troughing across the
central/northern Plains will support a dry, downslope enhanced
regime across much of the central and southern High Plains on
D3/Monday. 70% critical probabilities were added across portions of
central and eastern WY with strong west winds of at least 20-30 mph
and low relative humidity align with dry fuels. Dry downslope
westerly flow should encompass much of the central and southern High
Plains Monday as a dry, well-mixed boundary layer evolves while
increasing Gulf moisture makes a return across much of the eastern
U.S. 40% critical probabilities were added to much of the central
and southern High Plains with very dry fuels in place and above
normal temperatures persisting through early next week.
...Eastern Arizona and Western NM...
Influx of mid and upper-level moisture from Baja California along
with daytime instability should lead to a few thunderstorms mainly
over higher terrain within a relatively weak shear environment. A
dry, sub-cloud layer will inhibit significant rainfall across the
region with some ignition potential in dry fuels.
...Day 4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday - Southern High Plains...
Increasing westerly flow aloft and lee surface troughing across the
Southern High Plains should support dry and breezy conditions across
portions of eastern NM and the TX Panhandle on D4/Tuesday. A 40%
critical area was introduced given receptive fuels remain in place.
A more pronounced mid-level short wave trough and associated jet
could bring additional fire weather impacts to the Southern High
Plains D5/Wednesday. Some uncertainty exists particularly across
northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle in timing of short wave and
related surface cold front passage. Introduced 40% critical
probabilities for southeastern NM and far west TX, but could be
expanded northward in subsequent outlooks as new model guidance
becomes available.
..Williams.. 03/28/2026
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