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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 231556
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0956 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
Valid 231700Z - 241200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...
...Morning Update...
Elevated highlights have been expanded to cover the FL Panhandle,
Central Gulf Coast, and southeastern LA. Despite some areas
receiving recent wetting rainfall, multiple new starts yesterday
afternoon in Louisiana heighten concerns for spotty fuel
receptiveness. Given the entire Central Gulf Coast may see RH values
below 35% and sustained northwesterly winds of 10-20 mph, Elevated
fire weather conditions are expected. Parts of Southern Florida are
already experiencing Critical fire weather conditions this morning.
RH values are expected to drop to 25-35% and sustained northwesterly
surface winds increasing to 10-15 mph (locally higher gusts 20-30
mph) this afternoon.
See the previous discussion for more information.
..Garcia/Thornton.. 02/23/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026/
...Synopsis...
...Florida...
A dry airmass will move down the peninsula today in the wake of a
cold front. Recent precipitation has mitigated some fuel
receptiveness, particularly in North/Central Florida. However, South
Florida has remained rather dry and fuels will be receptive to
ignitions/spread. Winds will generally be stronger in the morning,
before slowly weakening into the afternoon/evening. During the
afternoon, winds of 10-15 mph can be expected. Given persistent
surface winds down the peninsula, RH may be near Elevated criteria
even early this morning. RH values by afternoon will be 25-35% in
the north with around 20% in the south. Critical fire weather is
expected in South Florida with elevated to locally critical
elsewhere.
...Southern High Plains...
Winds of 15-20 mph and RH of 10-20% are possible during the
afternoon. Lack of recent rainfall has continued to allow fuels to
dry. Elevated fire weather can be expected.
...Central Gulf Coast...
Dry offshore flow will continue today. Despite RH of 20-25% in some
areas, winds will generally be too light to promote more than
locally elevated concerns.
...Southeast Wyoming...
It is possible that locally elevated conditions will occur today as
winds increase due to a modest lee trough and increasing mid-level
winds. Mid/upper clouds will potentially keep temperatures cool and
RH higher. Fuel receptiveness is also uncertain given recent
precipitation.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 231917
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...20z Update...
Critical fire weather highlights have been expanded farther north
into southeastern CO and farther east into the Rolling Plains of TX.
Recent model guidance has increased probabilities of combined
(west-southwesterly) wind speeds greater than 20 mph and RH values
less than 15% within the Critical area. These conditions atop dry
and recently receptive fuels will support ignition and fire spread
throughout the afternoon on Tuesday.
Southeast WY into western NE will experience very strong downslope
winds of 35-45 mph (locally stronger gusts up to 70 mph) late
Tuesday morning into the overnight hours. Given recent snowfall,
expected cloud cover, and minimum RH of 30-40%, Elevated fire
highlights have been withheld.
See the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Thornton.. 02/23/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026/
...Synopsis...
...Southeast Colorado into southern High Plains...
Mid-level flow will increase across the central and southern Rockies
on Tuesday. A modestly deep lee cyclone will promote downslope winds
from southeast Colorado into northeastern/east-central New Mexico.
Winds of 20-25 mph appear possible, especially within the more
terrain-favored locations. RH of 10-15% will also be common. Dry
fuels will continue to support ignition and spread in this
environment. Critical fire weather is most likely in southeast
Colorado into eastern New Mexico and parts of the Texas South
Plains. Farther south, weaker winds will keep fire weather concerns
Elevated within the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend regions.
...Southern Plains into the Ozarks...
Ahead of the surface front, stout, gusty southerly/southwesterly
winds are expected from the Texas Rolling Plains into much of
Oklahoma and Ozarks. Mid/high clouds will be increasingly probable
with northeastward extent. However, the dry return flow will allow
RH of fall into the 15-25% range. Winds of 15-20 mph will occur
during the afternoon. Strong flow within the lowest 2 km will also
promote stronger gusts. Most areas have not observed precipitation
recently and fuels remain receptive.
...Southeast Wyoming into the Front Range...
Given the pressure gradient across the terrain, dry downslope winds
will be possible in these areas. Recent precipitation has mitigated
fuels dryness in the short term. Furthermore, mid/upper clouds
appear likely which will create some uncertainty in how low RH will
fall. Locally elevated conditions do appear possible where fuels are
drier as pockets of stronger wind are possible.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 232148
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 031200Z
...Synopsis...
Mid-level flow will remain amplified over CONUS through the extended
forecast period. The predominant pattern will feature troughing over
the eastern US while strong mid-level flow continues across the
central US. Amplified ridging over the West will support strong
downslope flow and lee troughing over the Southern and Central High
Plains. This pattern will aid continued Elevated to Critical fire
weather conditions through the forecast period.
...Day 3/Wednesday - Southern Plains and Southeastern Colorado...
Fire weather conditions are expected to continue as a lee surface
low moves southeast across the Central Plains amid northwesterly
flow. Strong mid-level flow aloft will support broad downslope
northwesterly winds of 10-20 mph and RH values below 20% , so 40%
Critical probabilities have been maintained. 70% Critical
probabilities have been introduced where a localized area in
southeastern NM may experience stronger northwesterly downslope
surface winds of 20-30 mph atop dry, receptive fuels.
...Day 4/Thursday - South Central Texas...
As the surface low continues to shift south towards the Texas Gulf
Coast, a weak dry cold front will pass through South Central Texas
late morning/afternoon bringing dry and breezy northerly surface
winds. With low humidity and warm surface temperatures across the
area on Day 3/Wednesday, fine fuels will likely have dried out some,
leading to potential receptiveness to fire. 40% Critical
probabilities have been introduced to account for fire weather
concerns.
Beneath strong mid-level flow, tight surface pressure gradients
across central Wyoming may support strong downslope winds and low RH
in the lee of the Laramie Range into far western Nebraska on Day
4/Thursday and Day 5/Friday. However, with the potential for light
rainfall across the area on Day 3/Wednesday, fire weather highlights
have been withheld for now.
Model spread increases on Day 5/Friday through the remainder of the
forecast period regarding the overlap of dry and windy conditions.
Nonetheless, as the mid/upper-level pattern persists, fire weather
conditions will likely continue across portions of the Central and
Southern High Plains into the weekend.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Thornton.. 02/23/2026
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