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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 201546
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1046 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026
Valid 201700Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN WYOMING...
Visible satellite data depicts clear skies, with boundary-layer
warming underway. Surface observations show temperatures reaching
the 60s F in spots, with RH dipping to 20 percent, and westerly
surface winds approaching 20 mph amid 25 mph gusts. Guidance
consensus suggests that boundary-layer mixing will continue into the
afternoon hours, resulting in overlapping widespread 15-20 percent
RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds. As such, the
current Elevated and Critical highlights across the northern High
Plains into the northern Rockies have been maintained.
..Squitieri.. 03/20/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026/
...Synopsis...
A persistent upper-level ridge will remain centered over the
Southwest today with modest northwest flow aloft across the
central/northern High Plains. Surface high pressure over the
Intermountain West coupled with lee troughing across the northern
Great Plains will continue to favor a downslope wind regime, with
dry and windy conditions forecast to support elevated to critical
fire weather concerns across portions of the central and northern
High Plains.
...Central/Northern High Plains...
Record warm temperatures continue across much of the West amid an
anomalously strong upper-level ridge centered across the Southwest.
With high pressure remaining in place across the Intermountain West
and lee troughing across the northern Great Plains, a continuing
downslope wind regime is forecast to yield sustained
west-northwesterly surface winds of 20-25 mph across portions of
central/eastern Wyoming. Poor overnight RH recoveries have been
noted via recent surface observations with further RH reductions to
10-20% forecast this afternoon. Coupled with receptive fuels, this
is expected to support critical fire weather conditions across
central/eastern Wyoming today. Elevated fire weather concerns are
also forecast across adjacent areas of the western Wyoming Basin and
portions of southwestern South Dakota and western Nebraska where
surface winds of 15-20 mph are expected to overlap minimum RH values
of 10-20%.
Fuels remain more marginal farther to the north across much of
southern Montana and portions of extreme southwestern North Dakota
and northwestern South Dakota; however, continued warm/dry
conditions have supported some drying of fine fuels along with
recent fire activity. Given this, elevated fire weather conditions
are expected this afternoon as RH values are forecast to range from
15-25% amid stronger sustained westerly winds of 15-25 mph. 40+
knots of 700 mb flow across this region coupled with deep boundary
layer mixing may also support occasional wind gusts of 30-40 mph.
...Central Nevada into southern Oregon...
Guidance continues to indicate localized potential for sustained
southwesterly surface winds of 10-15 mph this afternoon as the
surface pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold
front. With RH values forecast to fall to 10-15%, localized elevated
fire weather concerns may materialize across portions of southern
Oregon into central Nevada, especially in areas that favor
terrain-induced wind enhancements. However, widespread elevated
conditions are not expected at this time given marginal early season
fuel conditions and sporadic coverage of coincident elevated wind/RH
criteria.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 201854
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN
WYOMING...FAR NORTHWESTERN COLORADO...EXTREME WESTERN
NEBRASKA...EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...
Much of the previous forecast remains on track based on the latest
guidance consensus. Elevated highlights were expanded farther east
toward the mid-Mississippi Valley region, where 15-25 percent RH, 15
mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, and highly receptive
fuels, will overlap to support relatively robust wildfire spread
potential. Elevated highlights were also trimmed from much of
central Utah, where the latest guidance consensus has trended
somewhat weaker with wind speeds, lessening the fire spread threat
to a degree given marginally receptive fuels. Please see the
previous forecast below for details on wildfire-spread potential
across the Intermountain West to the central and southern Plains.
..Squitieri.. 03/20/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0229 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026/
...Synopsis...
A cold front will surge south through the northern/central Great
Plains and northern Great Basin with a surface low developing
southward in the lee of the Rockies. A widespread strengthening of
surface winds ahead of this frontal system coupled with reduced RH
values is forecast to support elevated to critical fire weather
concerns from the southern/eastern Great Basin through the central
Great Plains.
...Southern/eastern Great Basin to the central Great Plains...
Forecast guidance continues to depict at least a temporary break
down of the upper-level ridge centered over the Southwest on
D2/Saturday as a shortwave trough crests the ridge and moves through
the Pacific Northwest. Simultaneously, a surface low will develop
southward in the lee of the Rockies while an associated cold front
advances southward across much of the West and the Great Plains. The
strongest sustained winds (20-30 mph) coupled with minimum RH values
of 10-15% are forecast to support critical fire weather conditions
across southeastern Wyoming and adjacent portions of western
Nebraska, northwestern Colorado, extreme northeastern Utah, and
extreme southwestern South Dakota. Modest westerly mid-level flow
coupled with deep boundary layer mixing will also support the
potential for occasional wind gusts of 30-35 mph across this area.
Elsewhere within the Elevated highlights, a strengthening surface
pressure gradient ahead of this frontal system will support
widespread sustained surface winds of 10-20 mph. With continuing
potential for record warm temperatures across much of the West
aiding in the drying of fine fuels and forecast RH values of 10-20%
(locally down to 5%) during peak heating, widespread elevated fire
weather conditions are expected from the southern/eastern Great
Basin eastward to the central Great Plains and from portions of West
Texas northward to Wyoming. While much of the high elevations of the
central Rockies are within the Elevated area, fuel conditions and
snow cover will preclude any fire weather concerns in those areas.
The southward moving cold front will then bring a shift to northerly
winds for the central/northern High Plains and northern Great Basin.
This front is anticipated to be dry, however, which may bring the
potential for elevated fire weather conditions to temporarily
persist after the frontal passage.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 202039
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026
Valid 221200Z - 281200Z
Upper ridging is poised to overspread the CONUS through the extended
(Days 3-8) period. Embedded mid-level impulses will traverse the
upper ridge, encouraging a surface cold front to sweep across the
CONUS (east of the Rockies) early in the week. Thereafter, surface
lee troughing will become established across the Plains, promoting
occasional bouts of dry downslope flow across portions of the High
Plains.
...Day 3/Sunday...
A surface low will encourage dry downslope flow across the southern
High Plains as an approaching cold front sweeps southward across the
central and southern Plains on Sunday. The best chance for
critically dry and windy conditions will be across portions of the
Texas Rolling Plains per latest guidance consensus. However, at
least Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are expected across
the remainder of the southern High Plains due to dry downslope flow,
and across northern Oklahoma into Kansas behind the cold front.
While temperatures (and thus RH) will be lower in Oklahoma/Kansas
compared to points farther south, very strong northerly surface
winds, potentially exceeding 30 mph in spots, will encourage rapid
wildfire-spread potential given dry fuels.
...Day 4/Monday...
The surface cold front will sweep across the East Coast while
surface lee troughing continues across the High Plains on Monday. 40
percent Critical probabilities remain in place across southern
Virginia into northern South Carolina, where guidance consensus
continues to show a dry and breezy post-cold-frontal environment
over dry fuels. Dry downslope flow will also promote dry and windy
conditions across southern Wyoming, warranting the continuation of
40 percent Critical probabilities here as well.
...Day 6/Wednesday...
The next chance for appreciable wildfire-spread potential will be on
Wednesday across portions of Wyoming and immediate surrounding
areas. A mid-level impulse will traverse the region, enhancing
downslope flow and supporting dry/windy conditions for several hours
Wednesday afternoon. 70 percent Critical probabilities were
introduced given multiple preceding days of no rainfall and
dry/windy conditions, which will further cure fuels that are already
receptive to fire spread.
..Squitieri.. 03/20/2026
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