ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 251613

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1013 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

   Valid 251700Z - 261200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS...

   ...Morning Update...
   No changes were made to the previous forecast. Ample high cloud
   cover is visible on satellite imagery across eastern NM and west TX,
   likely to persist through the afternoon. Westerly wind gusts of
   25-35 mph have already been observed this morning in southeastern NM
   with RH values hovering at and below 20%. Increasing sustained
   downslope winds of 20-30 mph and RH below 20% atop a dry fuelscape
   will support Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon for
   this area. In the CO Front Range, cross-terrain surface pressure
   gradients beneath an incoming 40-60 kt 700 mb jet will support gusty
   downslope winds through the Central High Plains. In
   central-southeastern CO, RH of 20-25% will be slightly displaced
   from the strongest sustained surface winds to the north, though
   local terrain-driven wind tunneling may generate isolated areas of
   higher winds, so locally critical fire weather conditions may be
   possible given receptive fuels. See the previous discussion for more
   information.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia/Thornton.. 02/25/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   ...Central/southern High Plains...
   Moderately strong northwesterly mid-level flow will persist across
   the central and southern Rockies today with lee troughing in place
   across much of the central and southern High Plains. The cross
   terrain surface pressure gradient will support dry, downslope winds
   of 20-30 mph across portions of east-central and southeast New
   Mexico this afternoon. A plume of mid-level moisture will nose into
   the area through the day, fostering some high-level cloud cover and
   a modest increase in surface dewpoints. Given this, guidance is not
   overly confident in RH dropping below 15% for more than a brief
   period. However, the increased winds overlapping a dry fuelscape
   will still support a period of Critical fire weather conditions
   during the afternoon. 

   RH values of around 20% with surface winds of 15-20 mph are expected
   elsewhere across the central/southern High Plains, but locally
   higher winds are possible within terrain-favored locations.

   ...Edwards Plateau into South-Central Texas...
   A modest surface low will gradually progress southeastward across
   portions of central Texas today. Winds of 15-20 mph will be possible
   to the south and west of this feature. Coupled with expected RH
   values of 15-20%, this will support Elevated fire weather conditions
   this afternoon.

   ...Northeastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska and northwestern
   Kansas...
   Strong northwesterly flow across the central Rockies will align with
   a favorable cross-terrain surface pressure gradient to support a
   strong downslope wind event across portions of the central High
   Plains. Sustained surface winds of 20-30 mph are expected along with
   the potential for gusts up to 45-55 mph. While RH values are
   forecast to remain marginal (20-25%), the strong downslope winds
   will overlap with receptive fuels to support Elevated fire weather
   conditions this afternoon.

   Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible farther north
   into portions of southeastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle;
   however, such conditions are expected to be brief given anticipated
   RH increases behind an advancing surface cold front.