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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 290604
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper level shortwave trough will traverse the Midwest into
the Ohio Valley as an attendant surface low approaches the
Mid-Atlantic. A trailing cold front will progress east of the
Appalachians extending into the Southeast by this afternoon. Dry
westerly flow south of the advancing cold front is expected to
increase fire weather concerns for portions of southern GA and
northern FL where fuels remain dry. Enhanced mid-level westerly flow
ahead of an approaching Pacific trough will bolster a continued
downslope regime across the Southwest. With preceding days of
fire-effective weather conditions and receptive fuels, fire weather
concerns will persist over central NM to far eastern AZ this
afternoon.
...Southwest...
Upper-level cloud cover is currently increasing across much of the
Southwest and southern Plains early this morning owing to a
subtropical jet advecting moisture aloft. This will likely inhibit
RH recoveries west of the NM central mountain chain, preconditioning
an already dry fuel environment. A 50-60 kt mid-level jet at the
base of an embedded, low-amplitude shortwave within broader
west-southwest flow will evolve across the Southwest and southern
Plains today, promoting continued dry and breezy conditions.
Westerly winds of 15-20 mph and RH of less than 15 percent amid dry
fuels will support an Elevated fire weather threat for portions of
eastern AZ into central NM/West TX and the San Luis Valley. Locally
critical fire weather conditions may emerge mainly in the leeward
slopes of the more prominent mountain ranges in southern NM with
sustained winds of 20-25 mph amid 10 percent RH.
...Southern Georgia and Northern Florida...
Beneath the upper level trough, a deepening surface low over the
Mid-Atlantic will enhance southwest to westerly surface winds across
much of the Southeast as minimal Gulf moisture influence will
overlap a dry and drought stressed landscape. West winds of around
10 mph and RH of 25-35 percent (locally less than 25 percent) are
expected to promote an Elevated fire weather threat across portions
of southern GA into northern FL this afternoon. Early morning
thunderstorms are currently moving across central AL into far
western GA, but are expected to diminish as they approach the
Elevated risk area. However, if precipitation persists farther
southeast than anticipated, fire weather highlights will be adjusted
in the 17z outlook.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/29/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 290605
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level Pacific low will move onshore the Baja Peninsula
and transition into an eastward projecting shortwave as a westerly
50-70 kt jet emerges downstream across central TX into the Southeast
on Thursday. Ample Pacific moisture transport will encourage
widespread wetting rains and a reduced fire weather threat across
much of the central and southern High Plains. Broad upper troughing
is forecast to take residence across the Northeast as a closed
upper-level low persists over southern Ontario. A southward
progressing weak cold front will eventually stall over southern GA
and northern FL on Thursday afternoon, bringing increased
precipitation chances to where extensive drought and receptive fuels
remain. However, ahead of the front, high pressure will promote a
warm and dry airmass over Central FL where fire weather concerns
reemerge amid a very dry fuelscape.
...Florida Peninsula...
Ahead of a stalled frontal boundary near the FL-GA line, surface
high pressure will maintain warm and dry conditions for much of the
FL Peninsula on Thursday afternoon. An Elevated fire weather threat
is expected where westerly winds of up to 10 mph will partially
overlap a region of 30-35 percent RH amid receptive fuels and a
drought-ridden environment. Near the frontal boundary, increasing
mid-level moisture along with afternoon heating and resultant
instability may support isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Lightning ignitions are possible in areas that do not see sufficient
rainfall, and resultant gusty/erratic outflow winds from
thunderstorms could further exacerbate any new/ongoing fires.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/29/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 282140
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0440 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 301200Z - 061200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will be a predominant feature across the
eastern U.S. through early next week. A gradually southward
progressing cold front and accompanying rainfall is expected across
much of the Deep South, Southeast and portions of the Mid-Atlantic
where extensive drought and receptive fuels remain. This should have
an overall mitigating influence on fire weather concerns through the
weekend, with the exception of the FL Peninsula. Meanwhile, an
upper-level trough with accompanying ample Pacific moisture aloft
will intersect a cold front draped over the Southern Plains on Day
3-4/Thursday-Friday. This should support widespread wetting rains
and a reduced fire weather threat across much of the central and
southern High Plains. Upper-level ridging across the West will
promote a warming and drying trend through the weekend, with a dry
and breezy regime returning to the Desert Southwest and southern
Great Basin ahead of the next Pacific trough early next week.
...Day 3-5/Thursday-Saturday - Florida Peninsula...
Dry conditions including relative humidity at or below 35% and
breezy west winds are expected Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday with showers
and thunderstorms associated with a frontal boundary confined along
the northern Gulf Coast and the FL Panhandle. An upper-level wave
and deepening surface trough should bring increasing west/southwest
winds to FL on Day 5/Saturday. This could aid in bringing additional
boundary layer moisture from the Gulf into the state, although very
dry fuels and drought could still support wildfire spread. 40%
critical probabilities have been introduced into central FL for Days
3-5/Thursday-Saturday. Longer term forecast guidance shows
appreciable rainfall across the FL Peninsula on Day 6/Sunday as the
cold front finally shifts southeastward, bringing reprieve to a
preceding multi-day fire weather threat.
..Williams.. 04/28/2026
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