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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 191625

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1025 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

   Valid 191700Z - 201200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   ...Morning Update...
   Critical highlights were shifted farther south into the Red River
   Valley and North Texas for the Day 1 update. Poor overnight moisture
   recovery across the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma combined with
   west-northwesterly 20-25 mph winds (30-40 mph gusts) and 10-15
   percent RH by peak heating will promote Critical fire weather
   conditions this afternoon and evening. The observed OUN sounding
   portrayed 50 knot winds just above the surface, so as daytime mixing
   occurs, the region could see stronger localized wind gusts. A cold
   front will pass over the Oklahoma Panhandle/NW Oklahoma late this
   morning and afternoon gradually shifting winds northerly, bringing
   in cooler temperatures and higher dewpoints leading to a reprieve in
   fire weather conditions. Elevated highlights have also been extended
   across Eastern New Mexico to account for observed westerly downslope
   winds of 20-25 mph and 15-20 percent RH atop receptive fuels.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 02/19/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   The first in a series of mid-level impulses, embedded within a
   broader upper troughing pattern, will overspread the central Plains
   today, encouraging a surface low to track from the central Plains
   toward the Great Lakes region. As this occurs, the combination of
   dry downslope flow from the southern Rockies, and gradient flow
   driven by the surface low, should promote warm, dry and windy
   conditions ahead of a southward-surging cold front. Across the Texas
   Panhandle into Oklahoma and Missouri, 20-25 mph sustained
   west-northwesterly winds may coincide with 15 percent RH for at
   least a few hours this afternoon. Critical highlights have been
   maintained since these surface meteorological conditions will
   overspread dry fuels. Some areas from north-central Texas into
   Missouri have received appreciable rainfall accumulations over the
   past week. Nonetheless, finer fuels have more recently experienced
   dry conditions, potentially increasing their receptiveness to
   wildfire spread. Farther south across western Texas, surface winds
   should only peak in the 15-20 mph range, amid 20 percent RH,
   warranting Elevated highlights.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 191938

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0138 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN
   TEXAS...

   ...Southern High Plains...
   An embedded mid-level short wave impulse and attendant 90+ kt jet
   will eject into the Southern Plains Friday. The strong westerly flow
   along with subsequent lee surface trough development will support
   dry, downslope flow across much of Southern High Plains.
   West-southwest winds of 20-25 mph with relative humidity dropping
   into 15-20% range across eastern NM and west TX will yield critical
   fire weather conditions for the region. Warmer and drier conditions
   are expected across the Trans Pecos and TX Big Bend areas, where
   afternoon relative humidity will likely fall below 10% by peak
   heating. Expanded Critical Highlights into portions far west TX
   where sustained westerly winds of around 20 mph, very low relative
   humidity and receptive fuels align to support wildfire spread.

   ..Williams/Garcia.. 02/19/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   The next in a series of mid-level impulses embedded in broader upper
   troughing will overspread the southern Plains, resulting in surface
   low development across the southern High Plains tomorrow (Friday).
   As the low tracks eastward, dry westerly flow will promote wildfire
   spread conditions. The latest guidance consensus depicts 20-25 mph
   sustained westerly surface winds coinciding with 15 percent RH by
   afternoon peak heating, warranting the introduction of Critical
   highlights.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 192154

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0354 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

   Valid 211200Z - 271200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   As upper-level troughing shifts eastward, a dry cold front sweeps
   across the Southern Plains bringing dry northerly flow and fire
   weather concerns to southern TX Day 3/Saturday. Widespread rainfall
   across much of the Southeast should temporarily alleviate fire
   weather concerns over the weekend. Rainfall should be limited
   farther south across the Gulf Coast and FL, with particular concern
   for FL where dry-post frontal northerly flow could increase the fire
   weather threat for Day 4/Sunday and 5/Monday. The upper ridge will
   begin to break down D6/Sunday, introducing dry return flow and
   downslope winds across the Central and Southern Plains, potentially
   increasing fire weather concerns through the extended period.

   ...Day 3/Saturday - Southern Texas...
   Post frontal northerly winds behind a prominent dry cold front move
   into TX Day 3/Saturday. Heightened fire weather concerns should
   exist across portions of central and southern TX where RH will drop
   to 10-20 percent with sustained northerly winds of 10-20 mph spread
   across a dry fuelscape. 40% Critical probabilities have been
   maintained.

   ...Day 4/Sunday and Day 5/Monday - Florida and Southern Plains...
   Deep layer northwesterly flow develops across the Southeast and FL
   behind a surface cold front underlying an amplifying upper-level
   trough across the Northeast. Widespread wetting rainfall from Day
   4/Sunday is expected to remain north of the Gulf Coast, with minimal
   precipitation across FL. A cold front will pass through the northern
   FL peninsula early afternoon D4/Sunday bringing post frontal
   northwesterly winds and low RH. Coincident dry fuels should increase
   the fire weather threat where 40% Critical probabilities have been
   added. D5/Monday dry northwesterly flow is expected to shift to
   southern FL where even lower RH is anticipated, maintaining 40%
   Critical probabilities. There is uncertainty in the RH reductions
   under a cooler, dry return flow pattern across the Southern Plains
   on D5/Monday, which precludes introductions of Critical
   probabilities at this time.

   ...Day 6/Tuesday - Southern and Central Plains...
   Fire weather concerns reemerge across portions of the central and
   southern High Plains via dry return flow and increasing westerly
   winds aloft as the upper-level ridge across the Intermountain West
   breaks down. 40% critical probabilities have been added where a
   combination of low RH and strong westerly winds overlap dry fuels in
   eastern NM, TX Panhandle, and southwestern OK. Beneath the
   upper-level ridge a surface low will emerge in the lee of the
   northern Rockies, tightening a surface pressure gradient across
   eastern WY and western NE. Strong downslope winds may occur, though 
   cooler temperatures and RH uncertainties have limited the
   introduction of Critical probabilities for now.

   ...Day 7/8 Wednesday/Thursday - West Texas...
   40% probabilities have been introduced across the West TX region on
   D7/Wednesday as long-range models are hinting at hot, dry, windy
   conditions. Increasing northwest flow aloft and induced surface lee
   troughing will support increased fire weather concerns. Uncertainty
   is too high for D8/Thursday, though the anticipated pattern could
   suggest an ongoing fire weather threat through the forecast period.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 02/19/2026
      




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