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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 041650
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026
Valid 041700Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Southern California...
A pronounced offshore pressure gradient continues to promote
east-northeast winds of 15-20 mph (25-35 mph with higher gusts in
favorable terrain corridors) amid relative humidity in the 10-20%
range. Despite the dry and breezy conditions amid near record
warmth, fuels remain largely unreceptive, mitigating a larger fire
weather threat across Southern CA today.
...Northern Florida...
A surface low over GA will promote a subtle southwesterly flow over
much of FL today. A residual dry air mass across northern FL will
result in minimum relative humidity of 25-30% across the area.
However, higher sustained winds of 10-15 mph are expected to be
offset to the west of the drier conditions over northeastern FL,
mitigating a broader fire weather concern. Beneficial rainfall from
the surface low and trailing cold front are expected this evening
across northern FL, temporarily alleviating fire weather concerns.
..Williams.. 02/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026/
...Synopsis...
An amplified upper-level pattern with a ridge in the West and a
trough in the East will evolve through the day today. A cold front
will move off the Southeast coast and into the Florida Peninsula.
Elsewhere, surface high pressure will be quite expansive across the
CONUS.
...Southern Plains...
Modestly dry and breezy conditions are expected from West Texas into
parts of Central/South Texas. Winds will not be overly strong as
around 15 mph (locally near 20 mph) can be expected. RH will also be
marginally dry (25-30%). Given limited fuel receptiveness and these
marginal conditions, only locally elevated concerns are anticipated.
...Southern California...
15-20 mph winds (up to 30-40 mph in the terrain) will be possible
during the morning and part of the afternoon. RH of 10-20% will be
possible. Despite these otherwise favorable fire weather conditions,
area fuels remain moist enough to mitigate greater fire weather
concerns.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 041949
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CST Wed Feb 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook was needed. Localized
elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the northern
High Plains Thursday. A building upper-level ridge over the
Intermountain West will promote record warm temperatures across the
northern High Plains where lower elevation fuels continue to dry
amid expanding drought and lack of snow cover. Downslope enhanced
West to northwest winds of 10-15 mph (locally 20 mph in favorable
terrain) should align with relative humidity of 15-20% in localized
areas in the lee of the Rockies in central MT, but a broader fire
weather threat should be damped farther east where RH reductions
will be limited.
..Williams.. 02/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026/
...Synopsis...
The upper-level ridge will shift more into the Plains on Thursday.
This will lead to warmer temperatures within the High Plains region.
Some modestly dry north/northwest winds will occur over the High
Plains and adjacent areas. However, winds of around 15 mph along
with marginally lowered RH in most locations does not suggest more
than a localized fire weather threat.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 042157
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CST Wed Feb 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 121200Z
...Synopsis...
The highly amplified upper ridge over the West will begin to break
down through the weekend while troughing across the eastern U.S.
shifts eastward. Troughing becomes established across the West next
week, providing some opportunities for precipitation and cooler
temperatures across the region and High Plains. A cut-off low
meanders eastward through Mexico into the Southern Plains by Day
6/Monday while surface high pressure pushes farther into the
Atlantic from the Southeast. This will aid in deeper boundary layer
moisture return, which should mitigate fire weather concerns across
the Southeast and FL next week. Stronger westerly flow aloft
attributed to the breakdown of the upper-level ridge and more
pronounced lee surface cyclogenesis in the Plains could elevate the
fire weather threat across the central and southern Plains Days
6-7/Monday-Tuesday of next week.
...Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday - Southeast and Florida...
Fairly widespread rain showers along a cold front moving through the
Southeast and FL through Day 2/Thursday should temporarily mitigate
fire weather concerns across much of the region before dry,
post-frontal flow commences on Day 3/Friday. However, drier pockets
of fuels could remain across northern FL, where recent fire activity
has been observed within a drought stressed fuelscape. Uncertainty
in the near-term precipitation distribution across Florida precludes
introducing critical probabilities at this time.
...Day 4/Saturday - Southern and Central High Plains...
A mid-level short wave within broader northwesterly flow aloft is
expected to reach the Northern Plains by Day 4/Saturday. Subsequent
lee cyclogenesis across the northern/central Plains should bring
increasing westerly to northwesterly winds to much of the northern
High Plains. This region remains mostly snow free, with fuels
continuing to dry under unseasonably warm temperatures. Although
breezy winds are expected, RH reductions are uncertain, likely
remaining above 20% based on latest model guidance.
Farther south, lower RH amid warmer temperatures across southeastern
WY, northeastern CO and far western NE should align with breezy
winds and dry fuels to bring an enhanced fire weather threat to the
area Saturday. Marked southwest flow and downslope drying south of
the evolving surface low/trough could support an additional fire
weather threat across portions of northeastern NM and the TX
Panhandle where drier fuels are expected to emerge. 40% critical
probabilities were added to these areas.
..Williams.. 02/04/2026
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