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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 141628

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1128 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

   Valid 141700Z - 151200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO...EASTERN
   COLORADO...PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN KANSAS...AND WEST
   TEXAS...

   ...Central and Southern High Plains and central New Mexico...
   A surface cyclone will steadily deepen across the central High
   Plains through tonight ahead of an approaching mid-level short wave.
   This will promote a strengthening low-level westerly to
   southwesterly wind response across much of central/southern High
   Plains and much of central New Mexico today. Critical fire weather
   highlights remain across a large portion of the plains of eastern
   CO, southeast WY, southwestern NE and northwestern KS where 15-20
   mph west/southwest winds and relative humidity of 10-15% will align
   with dry fuels to support wildfire spread. Elevated highlights
   extend eastward, encompassing much of the Central and Southern
   Plains.

   Poor overnight recoveries not exceeding 30% were observed along and
   leeward of the CO Front Range, Sangre De Cristo Mountains and much
   of central/eastern NM, preconditioning an already receptive
   fuelscape in advance of dry and breezy conditions today. Critical
   Highlights were nudged westward closer to the Front Range where wind
   gusts of 50 mph have already occurred early this morning. Localized
   Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are likely in focused
   terrain gaps and favorable downslope areas along and just east of
   the CO Front Range and Sangre De Cristo Mountains, where sustained
   west winds of 25-35 mph with higher gusts align with relative
   humidity as low as 10% at times during peak afternoon heating of a
   very dry boundary layer.

   ...Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains...
   Accelerating low-level flow in response to the rapidly deepening
   cyclone across NE/KS, arrival stronger mid-level flow expanding into
   the southern High Plains and at least some mid/upper level cloud
   cover should impede boundary layer decoupling well into the
   overnight hours across portions of the TX Panhandle and northwest
   TX. Elevated surface winds of 10-20 mph combined with relative
   humidity remaining below 25% and dry fuels should maintain at least
   an elevated fire weather threat through tonight, possibly into the
   early D2/Sunday period.

   ..Williams.. 03/14/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   A shortwave trough will move out of the Pacific Northwest into the
   Northern Rockies today, with strong westerly flow overspreading the
   Rockies into the Central Plains. A lee cyclone is expected to
   develop across eastern WY/CO and shift into Nebraska deepening
   rapidly. Mass response with the deepening cyclone will result in
   tightening of westerly surface gradients across the central/southern
   High Plains and an extended period of Elevated to Critical (and
   locally Extremely Critical) fire weather concerns.

   Across the Front Range in Colorado and in the lee of the high
   terrain in New Mexico, surface winds will be further enhanced in the
   downslope regimes. Within these regions, relative humidity
   reductions 10-15% will overlap sustained west to southwesterly winds
   20-30 mph. Locally Extremely Critical fire weather conditions will
   be possible in more favored downslope regions in the lee of the
   Colorado Rockies, where winds may approach 40-50 mph at times.
   Guidance continues to support the notion that Critical fire weather
   conditions will spread further east into western Nebraska and
   northwestern Kansas, where several fires are ongoing. As such a
   broad Critical area was maintained from far western Texas into
   western New Mexico/western Colorado to southwestern Wyoming and
   eastward into western Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. Within these
   regions, there will be potential for rapid fire spread with Elevated
   to Critical conditions extending into the evening hours.

   Broader Elevated concerns will extend into central NE/KS/OK and
   southwest Texas where surface winds 10-20 mph will overlap relative
   humidity reductions to around 15-25%.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 141950

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0250 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS
   AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...

   A deep surface low will shift northeastward from the Central Plains
   into Great Lakes region through D2/Sunday. Strong north to northwest
   winds associated with a powerful cold front in wake of the departing
   low will sweep across the southern Plains Sunday and Sunday night.
   Dry and breezy conditions ahead of the front will also contribute to
   a broad area of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions Sunday.

   ...New Mexico, Western Texas and Far Southwestern Oklahoma...
   Breezy west-northwest winds of 20-25 mph ahead of the southward
   advancing cold front amid an enhanced downslope regime should result
   in Critical fire weather conditions across eastern NM into western
   TX. Relative humidity as low as 10% during peak boundary layer
   mixing is expected, following poor overnight RH recoveries of 30% or
   less to begin the day. Localized Extremely Critical fire weather
   conditions are possible across portions of central NM along and east
   of the Sandia Manzano Range under a 80-90 knot mid-level jet max at
   the base of an advancing trough. The resultant enhanced downslope
   regime where west-northwest winds of 30-40 mph with higher gusts
   coincide with relative humidity falling to around 10% should align
   with receptive fuels (ERC in the 80-90th percentile range) to
   support this localized Extremely Critical threat, although
   uncertainty in cloud cover precludes introduction of Extremely
   Critical Highlights for this update.

   As the cold front quickly dives southward into the Southern Plains,
   fire weather conditions should slightly improve after the initial
   northerly wind shift with rising relative humidity and cooler
   temperatures. However, deteriorating fire weather conditions,
   despite cooler temperatures, reemerge a few hours later as surface
   dewpoints fall close to 0 F across the southern High Plains. This
   will result in 15% or lower relative humidity by peak afternoon
   heating amid 25-35 mph north/northwest winds. This could have a
   considerable impact on active wildfires in receptive fuels should
   they occur, particularly across Northwest TX where the driest
   post-frontal conditions and higher winds align. The overall fire
   weather threat shifts into Southern TX/Lower Rio Grande Valley
   region Sunday evening, potentially lingering into the overnight
   hours.

   A general eastward expansion of Critical highlights was made into
   northwestern TX and southwestern OK, with Elevated highlights
   extended into central TX based on latest model guidance and slightly
   drier conditions.

   ..Williams.. 03/14/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Behind a departing low pressure system on D2/Sunday, strong
   northwesterly flow will continue across the southern High Plains.
   Elevated to Critical fire weather is likely to be ongoing at the
   start of the period, continuing overnight from D1/Saturday. 

   Through the afternoon on Sunday, a cold front will shift southwards
   across southern Kansas into the OK/TX Panhandles and eastern New
   Mexico, bringing a shift from westerly to northerly winds which may
   pose a risk with any ongoing fires. Ahead of the front, relative
   humidity reductions around 10-15% will overlap sustained westerly
   winds 20-25 mph. Though relative humidity may initially improve post
   cold frontal passage, a secondary period of Elevated to Critical
   conditions appears likely across the OK/TX Panhandles into the
   afternoon/evening where relative humidity will drop near 15% again
   overlapping north to northwesterly winds 20-25 mph. A large Critical
   area was maintained with this outlook from central/eastern New
   Mexico into Western Texas where highest confidence in Critical
   conditions remains. 

   Broader Elevated fire weather concerns will extend into portions of
   central Texas and Oklahoma, where afternoon relative humidity around
   20-25% will overlap with sustained winds around 20 mph. Elevated
   conditions will also extend into much of northern and western New
   Mexico where fuels are expected to experience drying over the D1/D2
   period.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 142150

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0450 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

   Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   An intense mid-level trough and associated widespread precipitation
   will lift out the eastern U.S. by midweek while an anomalous
   upper-level ridge and corresponding hot and dry conditions evolves
   across the Southwest. Dry post-frontal flow will continue to bring a
   fire weather threat to far southern TX on D3/Monday, with a
   subsequent dry return flow event emerging across the Southern Plains
   D4/Tuesday. Abnormally high temperatures and dry conditions will aid
   in drying fuels across much of the Southwest through next week.

   ...Day 3/Monday - Southern High Plains and Southern Texas...
   Post-frontal northerly winds and low relative humidity will support
   a fire weather threat across southern TX from D2/Sunday into
   D3/Monday. A 40% probability was expanded northward based on latest
   model guidance. A modest dry return flow event is expected to
   commence across eastern NM and West TX as high pressure settles into
   the MS River Valley. Breezy south winds and low daytime relative
   humidity (including limited overnight recoveries from the D2/Monday
   period) should support elevated fire weather concerns across
   portions of eastern NM and western TX where a 40% critical
   probability has been introduced.

   ...Day 4/Tuesday - Southern Plains...
   Broad northwest flow aloft along with expanding lee surface
   troughing across the central/northern Plains will promote an
   expanded region of southwesterly winds across the Southern Plains on
   D4/Tuesday. The dry and breezy conditions along with rebounding
   temperatures should bring at least elevated fire weather conditions
   to much of western TX and eastern NM, with an expansion of 40%
   critical probabilities made into western OK.

   ...Day 5/Wednesday - Central High Plains...
   Persistent northwest flow aloft and surface troughing across the
   Plains should support dry and breezy downslope conditions across
   southeastern WY, northeastern CO and portions of the NE Panhandle on
   D5/Wednesday. The effects of light precipitation early next week
   should be transient across southeastern WY and vicinity, with near
   record high temperatures returning to the central High Plains by
   midweek. 40% critical probabilities have been added where receptive
   fuels are expected to remain.

   ...Days 6-8/Thursday-Saturday...
   Record high temperatures across much of the West are expected under
   an amplifying and highly anomalous upper-level ridge. Very dry
   conditions are expected, but lighter winds should mitigate a broader
   fire weather threat later next week. The primary impact will be a
   potential rapid drying of fuels across the West and High Plains
   regions.

   ..Williams.. 03/14/2026
      




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