ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 100702

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0202 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO
   WEST-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

   ...Synopsis...
   Along the northern periphery of an expansive upper ridge over the
   West, a robust midlevel trough and accompanying 60-70-kt jet streak
   will advance eastward across MT into ND during peak heating. At the
   same time, a related surface low will move eastward from SK into MB
   Canada, while a southward-extending lee trough deepens along the
   northern/central Plains -- before being overtaken by a surface
   front. This large-scale pattern will favor a broad area of elevated
   conditions across parts of the northern and central Plains during
   the afternoon, with critical conditions expected over eastern MT
   into west-central ND.

   ...Northern into the Central Plains...
   Ample diurnal heating and downslope flow trajectories will promote
   deep boundary-layer mixing along and west of the lee trough during
   the afternoon, where upper 70s to lower/middle 80s temperatures and
   15-25 percent RH are expected. Over the northern Plains, a
   combination of a tight pressure gradient and strong deep-layer
   west-northwesterly flow will promote 20-25 mph sustained
   west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 20-25
   percent RH. The greatest overlap of strong surface winds and low RH
   atop critically receptive fuels is expected from eastern MT into
   west-central ND -- where Critical highlights are in place. Farther
   south, a slightly weaker pressure gradient and moderate flow aloft
   will favor 15 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds, with
   10-15 percent RH. Given receptive fuels here as well, elevated to
   locally critical conditions are expected. A north-northwesterly wind
   shift is expected during the evening behind the front, with
   increasing RH and cooling temperatures.

   ..Weinman.. 05/10/2026

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 092111

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0411 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026

   Valid 111200Z - 171200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   An embedded mid-level short wave rounding the apex of an established
   ridge across the western U.S., moves into MT Day 3/Monday while
   broader upper-level troughing deepens over the Northeast. Dry,
   post-frontal flow under stronger northwest winds aloft should bring
   a continued fire weather threat to portions of the Northern Plains
   and Upper Midwest on Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday. The upper ridge over
   the Intermountain West begins to shift east midweek while an upper
   trough moves into the West Coast. This should usher in increasing
   mid/upper-level moisture and high-based thunderstorm potential for
   the Southwest/Colorado River Basin as well as stronger
   south/southwest winds into the Great Basin. Dry conditions will
   likely return to the much of the late next week across much of the
   Southwest.

   ...Day 3/Monday - Northern High Plains...
   Dry, post-frontal flow from the northwest atop receptive fuels will
   increase fire weather concerns across much eastern MT and western
   Dakotas on Day 3/Monday. Northwest winds of 15-20 mph aligning with
   modest RH reductions close to 20% are likely, with a minor eastward
   expansion of the existing 40% critical probabilities into western ND
   and far northwestern SD base on latest forecast guidance.

   ...Day 4/Tuesday - Portions of Northern Plains and Upper Midwest...
   A cold front extending southwestward from a parent low in the Great
   Lakes should move into the Upper Midwest by Day 4/Tuesday. Northwest
   winds of 15-20 mph behind the front will impact portions of the
   Dakotas, southwest MN and northwestern IA. Precipitation associated
   with the cold front and related upper short wave should be displaced
   to the east, allowing very dry fuels to remain in place. 40%
   critical probabilities have been introduced into the eastern
   portions of the Dakotas, southwest MN and northwest IA.

   ...Day 5/Wednesday - Great Basin...
   A pronounced upper trough and associated increasing southwesterly
   flow enters the Western U.S. on Day 4/Wednesday. Stronger southwest
   winds of 20-30 mph and low RH are likely to align across much of the
   eastern Great Basin and Desert Southwest. Temperatures well above
   normal and dry conditions under a dominating upper ridge leading up
   to this wind event should contribute to drying and curing of fuels,
   particularly in east-central NV and southwest UT where 40% critical
   probabilities have been added. In addition, increasing
   mid/upper-level moisture ahead of the trough and daytime heating
   could generate high-based showers and thunderstorms across higher
   terrain of the Southwest and CO River Basin. However, ample cloud
   cover could reduce overall instability limiting thunderstorm
   development, although concerns remain for at least a few lightning
   ignitions as dry and breezy conditions return for the latter part of
   next week. Uncertainty in expected cloud cover precludes
   introductions of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time.

   ..Williams.. 05/09/2026