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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 020647
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...Synopsis...
Broad mid-level troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern
US Saturday as a weaker perturbation merges with it across the
northern Gulf Coast. As the upper trough deepens, the associated
southwesterly flow aloft will also strengthen. This will drive a
cold front into the Gulf, though gusty winds and dry conditions are
expected ahead of it over parts of FL. To the west, high pressure
will remain over the Great Basin and northwesterly flow aloft
persists over the central US.
...FL...
Widespread dry and breezy conditions are expected again today ahead
of the cold front moving across the FL Peninsula. Strong westerly
flow at the base of the deepening eastern US trough will overspread
the frontal zone this morning and afternoon, supporting gusty
westerly winds across parts of southern and central FL. Mid and
upper-level cloud cover are likely to accompany the front, though
breaks (becoming more frequent with southward extent) should support
some diurnal mixing. With westerly flow aloft increasing, surface
gusts of 10-20 mph are possible. This should support gusty winds
with RH below 40% for much of the region where rainfall has been
limited. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely.
A couple hours of locally critical conditions are possible through
the afternoon where occasional gusts of 15-20 mph could overlap with
RH below 35%. This appears most likely farther south and east where
humidity is expected to be lower and less likely to be impacted by
clouds. However, less upper-level support for strong mixing and
gusts is expected here. This suggests that while critical conditions
are possible, they are unlikely to be widespread or of long
duration.
Fire-weather concerns should end this evening as the front continues
to move southward. Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity
should accompany the frontal passage, with cooler conditions
developing behind the front.
...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
Behind the upper trough moving out of the Great lakes, continued
northwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Plains. An embedded
perturbation will deepen a weak surface low tracking from southern
Canada into the eastern Dakotas. Trailing the low, a cold front will
move southward, supporting gusty winds over parts of MT/WY and the
western Dakotas. While RH will be variable and somewhat marginal
given high cloud cover and the cooler air mass behind the front,
most guidance shows diurnal minimums below 30%. The strong northerly
winds of 15-25 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) are likely for several hours
following the frontal passage, supportive of Elevated fire weather
conditions given dry fuels.
..Lyons.. 05/02/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 020650
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...Synopsis...
Split mid-level flow will develop over the US Sunday as an upper
trough exits the east coast and ridging remains in place across the
Great Basin. The northern branch of the flow aloft will remain
northwesterly over the Plains while a cutoff low is absorbed by the
strengthening sub tropical jet. The result will be unseasonably dry
conditions over much of the central CONUS where elevated
fire-weather conditions are possible across the northern Plains.
...Northern Plains...
An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to deepen as it moves
out of southern Canada into the northern US Sunday. At the surface,
an associated low will intensify as it traverses south-central
Canada. A strengthening surface pressure gradient should tighten
across much of the northern Plains, promoting dry and breezy
conditions ahead of a southward progressing cold front tied to the
low. Gusty winds of 20-30 mph are expected, along with RH below 30%.
Widespread dry and breezy conditions over a dry fuelscape should
promote elevated fire-weather potential.
...Southern High Plains...
Dry and breezy southerly flow is expected over parts of western OK
and the TX Panhandles Sunday beneath a northwesterly flow shortwave
trough. South/southwest gusts of 20-25 mph are possible during the
afternoon. With few clouds, afternoon RH values are expected to
decrease to below 20% near the lee trough. This could support some
localized fire-weather concerns. However, seasonably cooler
temperatures and rainfall/green up have tempered fuels such that
widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected.
..Lyons.. 05/02/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 012137
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 091200Z
...Synopsis...
An amplifying upper trough across the eastern U.S. and deepening
surface low near the Carolina Coast will send a cold front and
associated rainfall southeastward over the weekend. This will
provide a temporary fire weather reprieve not only to Florida but to
much of the Southeast and portions of the Mid Atlantic where fuels
have been exceptionally dry. A deepening surface low traversing
south-central Canada should bring stronger west-northwest winds and
low RH to portions of the northern Plains on Day 3/Sunday. Dry and
breezy conditions return to the Southwest Day 3/Sunday and Southern
High Plains Day 4-5/Monday-Tuesday as upper-level troughing
gradually shifts into the region.
...Days 3-5/Sunday-Tuesday...
...Northern Plains...
Beneath an upper level shortwave trough, a surface low will begin to
deepen on Day 3/Sunday as it traverses south-central Canada. Surface
pressure gradients should tighten across much of the northern
Plains, promoting dry and breezy conditions ahead of a southward
progressing cold front and increasing cloud cover. 40% Critical
probabilities have been introduced to account for these conditions
amid very dry fuels.
...Southern Plains...
Increasing southwesterly flow aloft should overspread the Southwest
and Southern Plains as a lee surface trough develops across the
southern Plains early next week. This will support dry and breezy
conditions across the Southwest on Day 3/Sunday, with downslope
drying and enhanced winds evolving in the southern High Plains Day
4/Monday and Day 5/Tuesday. Preceding widespread rainfall in
addition to ongoing green up across the region should limit the
impact of an otherwise enhanced fire weather concern across portions
of the southern Plains and Southwest. However, in areas that did not
receive appreciable rainfall, fire weather concerns will reemerge
for east-central NM into parts of the TX Panhandle on Day 4/Monday
where 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Dry and
breezy conditions continue on Day 5/Tuesday for the southern Plains
as the upper trough moves overhead and a surface low develops over
Oklahoma. A cold front will traverse the region during the
morning/afternoon, though guidance ambiguity in timing of the front
arrival precludes the introduction of critical probabilities at this
time.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/01/2026
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