ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 291956

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0156 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025

   Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See
   previous discussion below for more information.

   ..Thornton.. 01/29/2025

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025/

   ...Synopsis...
   Fire weather potential appears limited across the country on
   Thursday, though some concerns may emerge across the Big Bend region
   of southern Texas depending on fuel trends over the next 48 hours.
   The upper low currently over the Southwest is expected to eject into
   the southern Plains through late Thursday. Surface cyclogenesis is
   expected to become more pronounced Thursday afternoon across the
   central Plains, resulting in strengthening pressure gradient winds
   across much of TX. Westerly winds between 15-25 mph will be common,
   and dry air advection, coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing, will
   promote RH reductions down to 15-20% across the greater Big Bend
   region. Recent ensemble guidance shows reasonably high probabilities
   for sustained elevated fire weather conditions across this region
   with low to moderate probabilities (30-50%) for critical conditions.
   While confidence in reasonably high for at least elevated fire
   weather conditions, fuels across this region are not overly
   receptive with ERCs generally below the 80th percentile and 10-hour
   fuel moisture values above the 50th percentile. Fire weather
   highlights may be needed in future forecast updated if fine fuels
   can sufficiently dry by Thursday afternoon.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 282155

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0355 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2025

   Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

   Fire weather concerns will remain low in the early part of the
   extended forecast. An upper-low that has remained over the western
   US will eject across the southern Rockies into the Plains
   D2/Wednesday through D3/Thursday, bringing windy conditions but also
   chances for precipitation across the central/southern Plains. A
   surface cyclone will develop across the southern Plains D3/Thursday,
   with strengthening of a lee trough across the High Plains. This
   pattern will favor a period of elevated fire-weather conditions,
   particularly across southwestern and western Texas where freeze
   cured grasses may support risk for fire spread. Elsewhere, marginal
   fuels and chances for additional precipitation should limit the
   potential for critical conditions.

   Zonal flow behind this departing system will favor periods of
   enhanced westerly flow overspreading the southern Rockies through
   the weekend, with lee troughing redeveloping D5/Saturday and
   D6/Sunday. This will bring potential warm/dry downslope flow across
   portions of western Texas into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Some portion
   of this region will have seen recent rainfall. However, Elevated to
   locally Critical fire-weather concerns will be possible across far
   western Texas where less precipitation was received. For now,
   confidence is low in highlighting any specific areas.

   ..Thornton.. 01/28/2025