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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 200550

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1250 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   The remnants of a significant mid-level trough will remain over the
   western CONUS today. Given the colder weather and precipitation
   across some areas of the CONUS, the Southwest will be the region of
   primary concern today. However, by mid-afternoon today, 500 mb winds
   will struggle to reach 40 mph over much of the Southwest. Meanwhile,
   northwest mid-level flow continues over the Pacific Northwest while
   the jet max formerly over the southern Plains continues to progress
   eastward with a cold front surging offshore of the eastern US.

   ...Southwest...
   Near-normal surface temperatures for this time of year and a
   well-mixed boundary layer in place over the Southwest will
   contribute to south/southwesterly surface winds of 10-20 mph and
   minimum RHs of 10-20%. These weather conditions in place over
   receptive fuels (ERCs hovering around 80-90th percentile) will yield
   Elevated, with some locally critical, fire weather conditions today
   from around 10 AM local time to around sunset.

   ..Stearns.. 05/20/2026
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 200551

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1251 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   ...Synopsis...
   On Day 2/Thursday, a shortwave trough and associated mid-level jet
   streak will transit through the Intermountain West. There is some
   uncertainty given trends in the recent forecast guidance as to how
   far south this feature will dig and the timing of when it will
   progress over the central/southern Rockies. A cold front will
   continue to progress south/eastward over the Eastern Seaboard.

   ...Southwest...
   Conditions on Day 2/Thursday will be somewhat similar to Day
   1/Wednesday with southwesterly surface winds of 10-20 mph and brief
   afternoon RHs of 10-20%. Given the uncertainty associated with the
   aforementioned shortwave trough, marginally elevated conditions
   outside of a synoptically-supported fire weather environment, and
   more sparsely continuous fuels, no highlighted areas were introduced
   with this forecast issuance.

   ...Maine...
   One location that will miss out on much of any accumulating
   precipitation with the aforementioned cold front passage is the
   northeastern corner of the CONUS. With this offshore flow (sustained
   winds of 10-15 mph) in place at the surface, RHs will also dip down
   near 25-35% behind the front on Day 2/Thursday. Additionally, heavy
   dead fuels will remain near the 80-90th percentile. However, well
   established green up at this point will preclude any highlighted
   areas.

   ..Stearns.. 05/20/2026


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 192124

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0424 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

   Valid 211200Z - 271200Z

   A shortwave trough and associated mid-level jet streak located over
   the Intermountain West on Day 3/Thursday will gradually drift across
   the High Plains and Upper Midwest Day 4/Friday before entering
   south-central Canada this weekend. Longwave ridging will build
   across the West on Day 5/Saturday, sliding towards the Central U.S.
   as extended guidance introduces the potential for a robust upper
   trough to enter the Pacific Northwest early next week. An Atlantic
   ridge over the Eastern Seaboard is likely to persist through the
   forecast period, with multiple rounds of mid-level perturbations
   promoting repeat opportunities for precipitation. The overall upper
   pattern suggests dampened fire weather conditions on a broader scale
   through the forecast period, with the exception of localized breezy
   conditions across parts of the West. 

   With minimal to no rainfall forecast across the Intermountain West
   and portions of the Desert Southwest through early next week, and a
   subsequent warming/drying trend beneath the upper ridge, fire
   weather concerns may emerge where drying fuels and locally enhanced
   winds align.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/19/2026
      




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