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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 211540
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1040 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 211700Z - 221200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
WYOMING...NORTHWEST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...
The eastern edge of the Elevated area over southwest Iowa was
expanded eastward to account for the latest forecast guidance
advecting dry air farther east ahead of the cold frontal passage
tonight. RHs over southern Iowa and northern Missouri are expected
to drop below 25% during peak heating this afternoon coinciding with
sustained southwest winds of 10-20 mph. Farther west, mid-morning
surface observations are already indicating strong southwest winds
of 15-25 mph combined with RHs under 25% over the higher elevations
within the Critical area over Wyoming and surrounding areas. The
latest forecast guidance shows that southern portions of the
Elevated area across the southern half of New Mexico and Texas will
struggle to see widespread strong winds. Still, at least locally
elevated conditions are expected over these areas today where fuels
are very receptive to ignition and spread given summertime-like
temperatures and very dry air over the last several days.
..Stearns.. 03/21/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1234 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will continue across much of the U.S. today.
However, some modest decrease in the amplitude of this feature can
be expected. The strongest upper-level winds will remain across the
northern tier states with some extension into the central Rockies. A
stout surface trough/cold front will begin to move south through the
northern/central Plains.
...Wyoming into far western Nebraska/South Dakota...
The combination of the strongest mid-level winds and the surface low
to the east will promote Critical fire weather conditions during the
afternoon. Winds of 20-25 mph (perhaps locally higher) and RH of
10-15% can be expected. The cold front will move through during the
late evening into the overnight. Gusty north winds are expected in
its wake.
...Colorado Foothills/Front Range...
Conditions within the typical wind prone areas will not likely be
significantly different than farther north given the cross terrain
pressure gradient. Winds of 15-25 mph and RH of 5-15% are probable.
While these meteorological conditions would mean Critical fire
weather, recent precipitation has impacted fuels and updated ERC
data suggest that Critical fire weather may only occur locally. The
cold front will not likely impact this region until around Sunday
morning.
...Southwest into central/southern Plains...
A very broad area of elevated fire weather is forecast to develop
this afternoon. The warm to hot temperatures and lack of rainfall
continue to cure fuels in these areas. Very dry conditions are
likely in the Southwest (RH of 5-15%) with modest improvements to
around 15-25% in the central Plains near the Missouri River. Winds
of 15-20 mph will be most common, but locally higher speeds are
possible especially in the terrain of the Southwest.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 211741
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE
TEXAS...PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...
The Critical area was expanded slightly northward to account for
pre-frontal wind/RH meeting necessary thresholds before the arrival
of the impending cold front in the late morning hours. The frontal
boundary is expected to move through the Critical area and arrive
across southwest Texas by around sunset. Thereafter, the front will
continue to surge southwest across eastern New Mexico and into far
west Texas as RHs across the region also diurnally increase. The
Elevated area was also expanded to the south and west along the
International border to include the Trans Pecos region and portions
of southeast Arizona to account for the frontal boundary interaction
as well as strong westerly winds within the well-mixed boundary
layer during peak heating.
Consideration was given to retracting the northern extent of the
Elevated area south across Kansas due to the anticipated timing of
the cold front. However, given that the temperature gradient is
somewhat weak, as was previously mentioned, RHs behind the front are
expected to remain low. This dry air will combine with northerly
winds to promote a period of elevated conditions in the post-frontal
regime. While uncertainty remains as to cloud cover and how far
north these conditions may extend, trends will be monitored with
future forecast issuances.
..Stearns.. 03/21/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1236 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026/
...Synopsis...
Strong upper-level flow will be maintained across the northern U.S.
on Sunday. The upper ridge will remain largely flattened until some
amplification occurs toward Monday morning. The amplification of the
upper-level pattern will help push a cold front through the southern
Plains during the morning. The front may eventually slow/stall
near/south of the Red River latitude.
...Texas and Oklahoma...
A somewhat complex fire weather setup will develop during the
morning and persist into the afternoon as the cold front makes
southward progress. The overall temperature gradient will be rather
modest and RH recovery behind the boundary will not be overly quick
to occur. Some upper-level clouds can be expected to dampen surface
heating, especially with northern extent. Even so, temperatures
could still reach the 70s into the 80s. Winds behind the front will
range from 20-25 mph along with stronger gusts. RH will be the main
uncertainty in this scenario, but state of fuels and the strong
winds would still keep fire weather concerns high even with 15-25%
RH. Near and south of the front, however, it is more probable to see
10-20% RH. Stronger, gusty winds are also expected just ahead of the
front within the Edwards Plateau and Rolling Plains. There, Critical
conditions are expected as well.
...Kansas...
Winds of around 25 mph are expected to persist the longest across
much of Kansas. RH will likely be 25-35% on account of upper-level
clouds and slightly cooler temperatures. That said, dry grasses will
support ignition/spread due to the strong, gusty winds.
...Southwest...
Very dry conditions will continue as RH falls into the single digits
in many locations during the afternoon. Winds will generally be
weaker here, but 10-15 mph (locally higher in the terrain) will
support an Elevated fire weather threat given dry fuels.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 202039
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026
Valid 221200Z - 281200Z
Upper ridging is poised to overspread the CONUS through the extended
(Days 3-8) period. Embedded mid-level impulses will traverse the
upper ridge, encouraging a surface cold front to sweep across the
CONUS (east of the Rockies) early in the week. Thereafter, surface
lee troughing will become established across the Plains, promoting
occasional bouts of dry downslope flow across portions of the High
Plains.
...Day 3/Sunday...
A surface low will encourage dry downslope flow across the southern
High Plains as an approaching cold front sweeps southward across the
central and southern Plains on Sunday. The best chance for
critically dry and windy conditions will be across portions of the
Texas Rolling Plains per latest guidance consensus. However, at
least Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are expected across
the remainder of the southern High Plains due to dry downslope flow,
and across northern Oklahoma into Kansas behind the cold front.
While temperatures (and thus RH) will be lower in Oklahoma/Kansas
compared to points farther south, very strong northerly surface
winds, potentially exceeding 30 mph in spots, will encourage rapid
wildfire-spread potential given dry fuels.
...Day 4/Monday...
The surface cold front will sweep across the East Coast while
surface lee troughing continues across the High Plains on Monday. 40
percent Critical probabilities remain in place across southern
Virginia into northern South Carolina, where guidance consensus
continues to show a dry and breezy post-cold-frontal environment
over dry fuels. Dry downslope flow will also promote dry and windy
conditions across southern Wyoming, warranting the continuation of
40 percent Critical probabilities here as well.
...Day 6/Wednesday...
The next chance for appreciable wildfire-spread potential will be on
Wednesday across portions of Wyoming and immediate surrounding
areas. A mid-level impulse will traverse the region, enhancing
downslope flow and supporting dry/windy conditions for several hours
Wednesday afternoon. 70 percent Critical probabilities were
introduced given multiple preceding days of no rainfall and
dry/windy conditions, which will further cure fuels that are already
receptive to fire spread.
..Squitieri.. 03/20/2026
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