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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 031631
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026
Valid 031700Z - 041200Z
...Morning Update...
The previous forecast remains on track. Current observations depict
clear skies and RH values of 30-40 percent across the northern
Plains this morning. Around 18z, a mix of mid/high cloud cover will
move in ahead/along an incoming cold front, and RH will gradually
increase on the backside of the front. Breezy post-frontal
northwesterly winds of 15-25 mph will ensue through the overnight
hours, but decreasing temperatures and increased RH should provide
some relief to the fire environment.
As northwesterly flow aloft strengthens and surface pressure
gradients tighten behind a departing surface low, portions of the
coastal Mid-Atlantic and Hudson Valley will experience dry and
breezy conditions this afternoon. Elevated highlights have been
withheld due to increasing low/mid level cloud cover and marginal
fuels. However, localized fire weather conditions may arise where
15-20 mph wind gusts and 25-35 percent RH overlap drier fine fuels.
See the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026/
...Synopsis...
Behind the departing eastern US trough, strong northwesterly flow
aloft will develop over the central CONUS north of a cut off low
over the West Coast. A shortwave trough embedded within the
northwest flow will move south out of Canada, deepening a surface
cyclone near the international border. A cold front tied to the low
will also move south with dry conditions and strong winds associated
with it.
...Northern Plains...
An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to deepen as it moves
out of southern Canada into the northern US today and tonight. At
the surface, an associated low will intensify as it traverses
south-central Canada. The low is forecast to deepen as it moves
eastward across southern Canada, promoting dry and breezy conditions
ahead of a southward progressing cold front. Gusty winds of 20-30
mph are expected, along with RH below 25%. Widespread dry and breezy
conditions over a dry fuelscape should promote elevated fire-weather
potential. Some brief locally critical conditions are also possible
given the stronger gusts over parts of western ND and eastern MT.
However, high clouds and marginal RH value should limit the areal
and temporal extent of the more critical conditions.
...Southern Plains...
Dry and breezy southerly flow is expected over parts of western OK
and the TX Panhandles south of a shortwave trough. South/southwest
gusts of 20-25 mph are possible during the afternoon. Afternoon RH
values are expected to decrease to below 20% near a deepening lee
cyclone. This could support some localized fire-weather concerns in
pockets of dry fuels that have not received recent rainfall nor
transitioned to green up. Notably, a very small region of the far
northeastern TX Panhandle, eastern OK Panhandle, and northwestern OK
have not seen measurable precipitation in the last 30 days with
minimal (if any) transition to green up where high fuel loading
exists. However, high cloud cover throughout the afternoon and the
confined nature of the receptive fuels should limit broader
fire-weather concerns. Still, the gusty winds and dry conditions
will likely support drying of fuels into Days 2 and 3.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 031836
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...Afternoon Update...
The previous forecast remains on track. Between a mid-level closed
low over central Ontario and surface high pressure off the Carolinas
coastline, tightened surface pressure gradients will enhance dry
southwesterly flow across portions of the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic.
Surface RH values will decrease to 25-35 percent with widespread
gusts of 20-25 mph for a few hours, promoting localized fire weather
concerns where sporadic dry fuels may exist. However, increasing
daytime cloud cover, recent rainfall, and marginal fuels preclude
the introduction of fire weather highlights.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026/
...Synopsis...
Split mid-level flow will continue over the US Monday as the cut off
low over the Southwest merges with a strengthening sub tropical jet
stream. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will move out of the southern
Rockies and over the Plains deepening a lee cyclone. This will
promote dry and breezy conditions over parts of the southern Plains
supporting elevated fire-weather potential.
...Southern Plains...
Dry westerly flow is expected over parts of the southern Plains
Monday as the southern stream upper trough begins to move into the
Southwest. The deepening lee low will support strong west/southwest
surface winds across parts of eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles.
Warm temperatures and dry downslope westerly winds of 15-20 mph and
15-20 percent RH will overlap a confined region of dry fuels,
exacerbated by drying from the previous day. This should support
several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions west of a
developing dryline.
...Northern Plains/Midwest...
Gusty post-frontal winds are likely Monday across the northern
Plains and upper Midwest. However, cooler surface temperatures and
cloud cover suggest weaker mixing and higher RH. Still, some pockets
of drier air could support brief localized fire-weather concerns in
pockets of dry fuels given stronger northwest winds.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 022127
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0427 PM CDT Sat May 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper low will move onshore the West Coast on Day 3/Monday, then
transition to an open wave as it traverses the Southwest on Day
4/Tuesday. Concurrently, an upper trough will sag into the Midwest
and Great Lakes region before merging with southern stream troughing
over the Mid-South on Day 5/Wednesday. This pattern will provide
additional precipitation to the central Plains and portions of the
Eastern U.S. through mid-week, dampening broader fire weather
concerns. An upper ridge is expected to build across the Pacific
Northwest on Day 5/Wednesday, likely resulting in above normal
temperatures and dry conditions to prevail through the forecast
period for much of western CONUS.
Fire weather conditions reemerge for portions of the southern Plains
on Day 3/Monday as a deepening surface low tightens surface pressure
gradients across eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. Downslope
westerly winds of 15-20 mph and 15-20 percent RH will overlap a
confined region of dry fuels, maintaining 40% Critical
probabilities. Due to recent precipitation, probabilities were
trimmed to exclude areas that received appreciable rainfall. Dry and
breezy conditions may persist for parts of the Southern Plains into
West Texas on Day 4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday as southwesterly flow aloft
amplifies. However, guidance ambiguity in the placement of the upper
trough and timing of an approaching cold front precludes the
introduction of critical probabilities at this time.
As the upper trough traverses the Mid-South, increasing
southwesterly flow and poor moisture return should promote dry and
breezy conditions across the Mid-Atlantic on Day 4/Tuesday. However,
critical probabilities have been withheld due to recent appreciable
rainfall, marginal fuels, and expected moisture return overnight Day
4/Tuesday into Day 5/Wednesday.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/02/2026
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