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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 230701
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...
...Synopsis...
...Florida...
A dry airmass will move down the peninsula today in the wake of a
cold front. Recent precipitation has mitigated some fuel
receptiveness, particularly in North/Central Florida. However, South
Florida has remained rather dry and fuels will be receptive to
ignitions/spread. Winds will generally be stronger in the morning,
before slowly weakening into the afternoon/evening. During the
afternoon, winds of 10-15 mph can be expected. Given persistent
surface winds down the peninsula, RH may be near Elevated criteria
even early this morning. RH values by afternoon will be 25-35% in
the north with around 20% in the south. Critical fire weather is
expected in South Florida with elevated to locally critical
elsewhere.
...Southern High Plains...
Winds of 15-20 mph and RH of 10-20% are possible during the
afternoon. Lack of recent rainfall has continued to allow fuels to
dry. Elevated fire weather can be expected.
...Central Gulf Coast...
Dry offshore flow will continue today. Despite RH of 20-25% in some
areas, winds will generally be too light to promote more than
locally elevated concerns.
...Southeast Wyoming...
It is possible that locally elevated conditions will occur today as
winds increase due to a modest lee trough and increasing mid-level
winds. Mid/upper clouds will potentially keep temperatures cool and
RH higher. Fuel receptiveness is also uncertain given recent
precipitation.
..Wendt.. 02/23/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 230703
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
...Southeast Colorado into southern High Plains...
Mid-level flow will increase across the central and southern Rockies
on Tuesday. A modestly deep lee cyclone will promote downslope winds
from southeast Colorado into northeastern/east-central New Mexico.
Winds of 20-25 mph appear possible, especially within the more
terrain-favored locations. RH of 10-15% will also be common. Dry
fuels will continue to support ignition and spread in this
environment. Critical fire weather is most likely in southeast
Colorado into eastern New Mexico and parts of the Texas South
Plains. Farther south, weaker winds will keep fire weather concerns
Elevated within the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend regions.
...Southern Plains into the Ozarks...
Ahead of the surface front, stout, gusty southerly/southwesterly
winds are expected from the Texas Rolling Plains into much of
Oklahoma and Ozarks. Mid/high clouds will be increasingly probable
with northeastward extent. However, the dry return flow will allow
RH of fall into the 15-25% range. Winds of 15-20 mph will occur
during the afternoon. Strong flow within the lowest 2 km will also
promote stronger gusts. Most areas have not observed precipitation
recently and fuels remain receptive.
...Southeast Wyoming into the Front Range...
Given the pressure gradient across the terrain, dry downslope winds
will be possible in these areas. Recent precipitation has mitigated
fuels dryness in the short term. Furthermore, mid/upper clouds
appear likely which will create some uncertainty in how low RH will
fall. Locally elevated conditions do appear possible where fuels are
drier as pockets of stronger wind are possible.
..Wendt.. 02/23/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 222200
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 021200Z
Mid-level flow will remain amplified over the CONUS through the
extended forecast period. The predominant pattern will feature
troughing over the eastern US while strong mid-level flow continues
across the central US. Amplified ridging over the West will support
strong downslope flow and lee troughing over the southern and
central Plains. This will support continued Elevated to Critical
fire-weather conditions through this week and into next weekend.
...Central and Southern Plains States...
Strong northwest flow will develop over the Plains D3/Tuesday and
persist through much of next week ahead of a building ridge over the
West while broad troughing continues over the eastern US. Fire
weather conditions are forecast to become more widespread across the
southern Plains as a lee surface cyclone and associated pressure
gradient strengthens. West/northwesterly downslope winds of 15-25
mph are likely D3/Tuesday across eastern NM and the western TX
Panhandle amid RH minimums of 15-20%. With area fuels exceptionally
dry, widespread Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are
probable.
Farther east into OK, TX and parts of KS/MO, surface winds will
remain southwesterly within a dry return flow regime east of the lee
low. While not as strong as farther west, gusts of 20-25 mph with
afternoon RH values below 30% will still support the potential for
elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns amid
exceptionally dry fuels.
Broad fire-weather potential will continue over the southern and
possibly the central portions of the High Plains into
central/southern TX D4/Wednesday as the low moves eastward and
northwesterly downslope flow continues. Strong flow aloft will aid
in a broad area of 10-20 mph surface winds and higher gusts. RH
below 20% within areas of dry fuels appears likely to support at
least elevated and locally critical fire-weather concerns. This is
most likely over portions of the southern High Plains in NM and TX
where the best ensemble support currently exists. However, given the
strength of the flow aloft, some fire-weather potential is also
possible from WY and eastern CO into parts of KS/NE where fuels
remain dry.
Ensemble model spread begins to increase Day 5/Thursday and into
next weekend regarding the overlap of dry and windy conditions in
the wake of a cold front over the central US. Nonetheless, the
mid/upper-level pattern continues to favor enhanced mid-level flow
and dry conditions over much of the central US. This flow pattern
coupled with ongoing drought suggests some fire weather concerns
will remain possible across portions of the Plains late this week
and into next weekend despite limited details.
..Lyons.. 02/22/2026
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