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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 170745
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
The first in a series of mid-level troughs will eject into the
Plains today, resulting in the rapid deepening of a surface low over
the northern Plains, with pronounced surface troughing over the
remainder of the Plains states. The combination of strong
isallobaric and downslope flow associated with this weather pattern
will promote a broad area of surface conditions highly supportive of
significant, dangerous wildfire-spread potential.
...Central High Plains...
As the surface low deepens over the northern Plains, sustained
westerly winds should peak in the 30-40 mph range, with higher gusts
for several hours, coinciding with boundary-layer mixing and
subsequent RH reductions, down to the 10-15 percent range in spots,
warranting widespread Critical highlights. Extremely Critical
highlights remain in place where guidance consensus continues to
show the longest term overlap of 30+ mph sustained westerly winds
and at least 15 percent or lower RH atop fuels with ERCs approaching
or exceeding the 90th percentile. Such conditions will support the
potential for very rapid and dangerous wildfire spread.
...Southern High Plains...
Widespread westerly sustained winds of at least 25 to 30 mph should
become common by afternoon as a near 120 kt 500 mb jet streak
overspreads the region. Concern remains for mid- and high-level
cloud cover to accompany the jet streak, which may dampen RH
reductions (i.e. 25-30 percent), particularly west of the Amarillo,
TX longitude. Even with a more moist scenario, the strong winds atop
very dry fuels will compensate to support Critical wildfire-spread
conditions. East of Amarillo, RH should drop to at least 15-20
percent, suggesting that high-end Critical conditions will develop
and support significant, rapid wildfire-spread potential.
..Squitieri.. 02/17/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 170813
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
A second, pronounced mid-level impulse, embedded in a broader and
active upper troughing pattern, is poised to eject into the central
Plains tomorrow (Wednesday). A surface low will traverse the Upper
Mississippi Valley while a second surface low develops and quickly
deepens over the central High Plains. Strong isallobaric flow over
portions of the Midwest, and downslope flow along lee of the
southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, will promote
appreciable wildfire spread conditions over both locales.
...Southern High Plains...
The deepening of the surface low will augment downslope flow by
afternoon, resulting in widespread sustained southwesterly surface
winds around 25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours.
Fuels in this region continue to cure given a lack of appreciable
rainfall prior exposure to dry and windy days, warranting the
introduction of Critical highlights for the second day in a row.
...Portions of the Midwest...
As a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes, sustained westerly
surface winds will reach the 15-25 mph range while advecting dry air
from the west. RH may reduce to 15-25 percent by afternoon peak
heating. Given an appreciable lack of rainfall from eastern
Nebraska, Iowa, and western/northern Illinois over the past month,
the aforementioned dry and windy conditions may certainly support
wildfire spread, necessitating high-end Elevated highlights. If a
greater consensus among guidance members can depict 20+ mph winds
better overlapping with 20 percent or lower RH, Critical highlights
will be needed.
..Squitieri.. 02/17/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 162156
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 241200Z
...Synopsis...
Strong and persistent westerly flow aloft and surface troughing
across the Central Plains should keep a fire weather threat in place
over portions of the Southern Plains Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday.
Troughing shifts into the eastern U.S. over the weekend while
upper-level ridging builds into the central U.S. by early next week.
An initial surge of drier, northerly flow east of the Continental
Divide could bring fire weather concerns to the portions of the
southern Plains on Day 6/Saturday and perhaps the Southeast and FL
on Day 7/Sunday.
...Day 3/Wednesday...
Critical fire weather conditions are likely across the southern High
Plains on Day 3/Wednesday as a mid-level jet overspreads the region
while a surface cyclone deepens in eastern CO. Less cloud cover
should yield a better boundary layer mixing environment overall
across the Southern Plains. A corridor of strong southwesterly flow,
relative humidity perhaps below 10 percent and dry fuels are
expected from southeastern NM northeastward into southeastern CO and
southwestern KS. 70 percent Critical probabilities were appreciably
expanded, encompassing much of the Southern Plains for Wednesday.
Enhanced westerly winds south of a surface low over the Upper
Midwest are likely across the Corn Belt region on Wednesday,
although some precipitation Wednesday morning could mitigate a
broader fire weather threat. Minimal rainfall over the past several
weeks has contributed to drier fuels but uncertainty in rainfall
coverage and magnitude precludes introduction of Critical
probabilities at this time.
...Day 4/Thursday - Southern Plains...
Strong mid-level flow will continue over the southern/central Plains
while a deepening surface low moves into the Midwest Day 4/Thursday.
As a result, dry and breezy conditions should be maintained across
much of the Southern Plains. Extended 40 percent critical
probabilities eastward into OK with some uncertainty in the degree
of boundary layer drying and surface RH reductions limiting
confidence in a 70 percent Critical area.
...Day 5/Friday - Southeastern New Mexico and Far West Texas...
Model guidance depicts another mid-level short wave trough and
attendant jet max ejecting into the Southern Plains on Day 5/Friday
while a surface cyclone evolves across eastern NM. This would
support stronger westerly, downslope flow into southeastern NM and
far west TX. 40 percent critical probabilities have been added.
...Day 6-8/Saturday-Monday...
A more active wave pattern likely emerges across CONUS by the
weekend, with upper-level troughing shifting into the East by early
next week. Emergent Northwest flow aloft should aid in ushering in a
cooler air mass into much of the eastern U.S. Potential for dry,
post frontal flow and related fire weather threat exists
particularity across portions of TX Day 6/Saturday and the
Southeast/FL by Day 7/Sunday, but timing uncertainty of the front
limits predictability for the weekend. This precludes introduction
of probabilities at this time.
..Williams.. 02/16/2026
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