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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 021537

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1037 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026

   Valid 021700Z - 031200Z

   ...Morning Update...
   The previous forecast remains on track. Cloud cover is gradually
   expanding across the FL Panhandle as a cold front, currently draped
   across northern FL and the Gulf Coast, slowly progresses southward
   through the afternoon. In southern FL, current surface observations
   depict westerly wind speeds of 15 mph and RH values quickly
   decreasing as temperatures rise across the interior. Farther north,
   a trailing dry cold front beneath a weak surface low is progressing
   through eastern MT and northern ND. Mostly clear skies ahead of the
   front will promote deeper mixing this afternoon, with surface
   observations already depicting RH values declining to 30 percent and
   southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph. Behind the front,
   northwesterly winds of 15-25 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) are being
   observed with a slight increase of RH. Cloud cover will gradually
   expand across the area this afternoon, providing some relief to the
   fire environment. However, poor overnight humidity recoveries are
   expected, leading to another day of broader fire weather concerns on
   Day 2/Sunday.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/02/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Broad mid-level troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern
   US Saturday as a weaker perturbation merges with it across the
   northern Gulf Coast. As the upper trough deepens, the associated
   southwesterly flow aloft will also strengthen. This will drive a
   cold front into the Gulf, though gusty winds and dry conditions are
   expected ahead of it over parts of FL. To the west, high pressure
   will remain over the Great Basin and northwesterly flow aloft
   persists over the central US.

   ...FL...
   Widespread dry and breezy conditions are expected again today ahead
   of the cold front moving across the FL Peninsula. Strong westerly
   flow at the base of the deepening eastern US trough will overspread
   the frontal zone this morning and afternoon, supporting gusty
   westerly winds across parts of southern and central FL. Mid and
   upper-level cloud cover are likely to accompany the front, though
   breaks (becoming more frequent with southward extent) should support
   some diurnal mixing. With westerly flow aloft increasing, surface
   gusts of 10-20 mph are possible. This should support gusty winds
   with RH below 40% for much of the region where rainfall has been
   limited. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely.

   A couple hours of locally critical conditions are possible through
   the afternoon where occasional gusts of 15-20 mph could overlap with
   RH below 35%. This appears most likely farther south and east where
   humidity is expected to be lower and less likely to be impacted by
   clouds. However, less upper-level support for strong mixing and
   gusts is expected here. This suggests that while critical conditions
   are possible, they are unlikely to be widespread or of long
   duration.

   Fire-weather concerns should end this evening as the front continues
   to move southward. Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity
   should accompany the frontal passage, with cooler conditions
   developing behind the front.

   ...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
   Behind the upper trough moving out of the Great lakes, continued
   northwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Plains. An embedded
   perturbation will deepen a weak surface low tracking from southern
   Canada into the eastern Dakotas. Trailing the low, a cold front will
   move southward, supporting gusty winds over parts of MT/WY and the
   western Dakotas. While RH will be variable and somewhat marginal
   given high cloud cover and the cooler air mass behind the front,
   most guidance shows diurnal minimums below 30%. The strong northerly
   winds of 15-25 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) are likely for several hours
   following the frontal passage, supportive of Elevated fire weather
   conditions given dry fuels.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 021730

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CDT Sat May 02 2026

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...Afternoon Update... 
   Slight expansions were made to the Elevated risk area across the
   northern Plains to account for recent guidance depicting a broader
   overlap of dry and breezy conditions. Otherwise, the previous
   forecast remains on track. Across the southern Plains, localized
   fire weather conditions are expected in pockets of dry fuels that
   have not received recent rainfall nor transitioned to green up.
   Notably, a very small region of the far northeastern TX Panhandle,
   eastern OK Panhandle, and northwestern OK have not seen measurable
   precipitation in the last 30 days with minimal (if any) transition
   to green up where high fuel loading exists. However, increasing high
   cloud cover throughout the afternoon may provide some relief to the
   very localized fire environment.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/02/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Split mid-level flow will develop over the US Sunday as an upper
   trough exits the east coast and ridging remains in place across the
   Great Basin. The northern branch of the flow aloft will remain
   northwesterly over the Plains while a cutoff low is absorbed by the
   strengthening sub tropical jet. The result will be unseasonably dry
   conditions over much of the central CONUS where elevated
   fire-weather conditions are possible across the northern Plains.

   ...Northern Plains...
   An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to deepen as it moves
   out of southern Canada into the northern US Sunday. At the surface,
   an associated low will intensify as it traverses south-central
   Canada. A strengthening surface pressure gradient should tighten
   across much of the northern Plains, promoting dry and breezy
   conditions ahead of a southward progressing cold front tied to the
   low. Gusty winds of 20-30 mph are expected, along with RH below 30%.
   Widespread dry and breezy conditions over a dry fuelscape should
   promote elevated fire-weather potential.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   Dry and breezy southerly flow is expected over parts of western OK
   and the TX Panhandles Sunday beneath a northwesterly flow shortwave
   trough. South/southwest gusts of 20-25 mph are possible during the
   afternoon. With few clouds, afternoon RH values are expected to
   decrease to below 20% near the lee trough. This could support some
   localized fire-weather concerns. However, seasonably cooler
   temperatures and rainfall/green up have tempered fuels such that
   widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 022127

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0427 PM CDT Sat May 02 2026

   Valid 041200Z - 101200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper low will move onshore the West Coast on Day 3/Monday, then
   transition to an open wave as it traverses the Southwest on Day
   4/Tuesday. Concurrently, an upper trough will sag into the Midwest
   and Great Lakes region before merging with southern stream troughing
   over the Mid-South on Day 5/Wednesday. This pattern will provide
   additional precipitation to the central Plains and portions of the
   Eastern U.S. through mid-week, dampening broader fire weather
   concerns. An upper ridge is expected to build across the Pacific
   Northwest on Day 5/Wednesday, likely resulting in above normal
   temperatures and dry conditions to prevail through the forecast
   period for much of western CONUS. 

   Fire weather conditions reemerge for portions of the southern Plains
   on Day 3/Monday as a deepening surface low tightens surface pressure
   gradients across eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. Downslope
   westerly winds of 15-20 mph and 15-20 percent RH will overlap a
   confined region of dry fuels, maintaining 40% Critical
   probabilities. Due to recent precipitation, probabilities were
   trimmed to exclude areas that received appreciable rainfall. Dry and
   breezy conditions may persist for parts of the Southern Plains into
   West Texas on Day 4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday as southwesterly flow aloft
   amplifies. However, guidance ambiguity in the placement of the upper
   trough and timing of an approaching cold front precludes the
   introduction of critical probabilities at this time. 

   As the upper trough traverses the Mid-South, increasing
   southwesterly flow and poor moisture return should promote dry and
   breezy conditions across the Mid-Atlantic on Day 4/Tuesday. However,
   critical probabilities have been withheld due to recent appreciable
   rainfall, marginal fuels, and expected moisture return overnight Day
   4/Tuesday into Day 5/Wednesday.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/02/2026
      




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