|
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 101638
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Valid 101700Z - 111200Z
Northern portions of the Isolated Dry Thunder area were nudged
eastward and trimmed slightly in agreement with the latest
observations and forecast guidance showing less convective
initiation along northwest portions of the previous Day 1/Tuesday
Outlook. Expansion of the Isolated Dry Thunder area was considered
farther to the southwest into the Trans Pecos as well, but showery
precipitation appeared favored over extreme southwest Texas and very
little if any storm coverage near the Big Bend area.
Similarly, the Elevated area was also expanded slightly to the east
to account for the anticipated surge of the dryline through much of
the Texas Panhandle during peak heating this afternoon. Portions of
the central Texas Panhandle will see stronger and drier southwest
winds leading to some locally critical conditions. However,
conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to warrant a
critical area being drawn. Portions of the Front Range will see
locally Elevated fire weather conditions as well but the areal
extent remains limited. A strong cold front will push through the
central and into the southern High Plains late tonight with strong
winds but higher RHs and cooler temperatures.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/10/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper low over northern Mexico will eject eastward into the
southern Plains as a second upper trough moves over the northern
Plains into the Midwest. At the surface, a lee cyclone will
intensify and move eastward across parts of KS/OK dragging a
trailing dryline with it over parts of the southern Plains. East of
the dryline, rich low-level moisture and widespread
showers/thunderstorms are expected. Dry and breezy conditions behind
the dryline and east of the upper low appear likely to support some
fire-weather potential. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible
where lightning may interact with dry fuels over the southern High
Plains.
...Southern High Plains...
As the upper low ejects eastward, the initial surface cyclone will
move away to the northeast along the front. A secondary lee low will
deepen over KS/OK at the apex of the dryline. This, along with
strong flow aloft, will support gusty southwest winds across much of
the southern High Plains. While humidity is unlikely to be overly
low owing to cloud cover and mid-level moisture from the cold core
upper low over NM, pockets of strong heating and downslope flow west
of the dryline will support 20-30% RH values amid westerly wind of
20-30 mph. Elevated and brief critical fire-weather conditions are
likely from the Rio Grande Valley northward across much of West TX
and far eastern NM despite the modest RH minimums. Confidence in
brief critical conditions is highest across the TX Big Bend region
and the southern TX Panhandle where locally higher winds and lower
RH may briefly overlap this afternoon.
Thunderstorm development is probable this afternoon across much of
the southern Plains along the dryline and beneath the upper low over
parts of central NM. Precipitable water values, indicative of
moisture above a dry sub-cloud layer, range from 0.5 to 0.8 of an
inch and are not expected to support efficient rainfall accumulation
given storm motions of 30-40 knots. While confidence in storms is
relatively high, the exact coverage, and dryline position remain
uncertain. The IsoDryT area was expanded slightly to the
west/southwest to account for additional convection on the periphery
of the upper low. Additional changes are likely in the day1 update
as dryline placement and thunderstorm coverage/location details
become clearer.
|
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 101910
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
Forecast guidance continues to show strong north and northwest winds
on Day 2/Wednesday in the wake of the cold front that will have just
passed through the central Plains overnight. Forecast guidance also
suggests a drier environment, with minimum RHs of 15-25%, over much
of the central and southern High Plains. The latest trends also
depict the cold front progressing farther south and east through
Oklahoma by the afternoon. This necessitates the expansion of the
Elevated area to southwest Nebraska and northeast Colorado through
portions of western Oklahoma. While elevated winds/RH will likely
exist farther north across much of western/central Nebraska into
extreme eastern Wyoming, cold daytime temperatures and preceding
precipitation, some of which is likely to fall as snow, will limit
the northern extent of the outlook area.
Farther south near the Trans Pecos, localized elevated conditions
are possible as the cold front pushes through the Big Bend area,
though the pressure gradient is weaker. Less receptive fuels over
northwest New Mexico will continue to be the limiting factor,
although peak heating will mix strong northwest flow aloft down to
the surface.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/10/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026/
...Synopsis...
Split mid-level flow over the CONUS will gradually recombine as the
southern-stream trough merges with the northern trough over the
Midwest and Appalachians D2/Wed. Ridging will intensify over the
West as a cold front will sweep southeastward with a much cooler air
mass and gusty northerly winds likely behind it. Some fire-weather
potential remains possible over the southern and central Plains
where drier and windy conditions are possible. However, forecast
uncertainty is high.
...Central and southern High Plains...
A modestly dry post-frontal air mass is likely to develop across the
High Plains D2/Wednesday afternoon. While RH values will not be
overly low (generally above 30%) gusty northerly winds of 20-30 mph
and higher gusts are expected from southern NE into western KS and
TX/OK. This may support brief elevated fire-weather conditions,
especially across parts of the southern Plains.
Generally the overlap of gusty winds and RH below criteria appears
minimal with humidity quickly increasing through the day as colder
air filters south. Additionally, the potential for precipitation
from the prior day casts significant uncertainty on the potential
for sustained elevated conditions. However, the strengthen of the
northerly winds and some drying appears conducive to a few hours of
elevated fire-weather potential in the southern High Plains where
precipitation and cooler air should be minimized. Expansion is
possible in subsequent outlooks, pending precipitation and frontal
timing.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 102225
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0525 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 181200Z
The large-scale pattern remains progressive through the forecast
period with the jet stream favoring northern portions of the CONUS.
A trough will move through the Great Lakes region on Day 3/Thursday
with another trough and associated jet max moving through the same
areas again on Day 4/Friday, leaving much of the western and central
CONUS under west to northwest flow as a ridge builds over the West
Coast. Another trough moves into the Pacific Northwest on Day
5/Saturday and digs into the southern CONUS on Day 6/Sunday before
approaching the Eastern Seaboard by Day 7/Monday.
On Day 3/Thursday, surface temperatures will rebound 5-15 degrees
above normal across much of central CONUS. This will lead to a well
mixed atmosphere with the jet stream positioned over the northern
1/3 of the CONUS. Thus, dry air and windy conditions will reach the
surface with the strongest northwest winds of 20-30 mph over western
Nebraska and also westerly winds of 20-30 mph in a somewhat narrow
corridor over east-central New Mexico and much of the Texas
Panhandle.
On Day 4/Friday and Day 5/Saturday, conditions aloft will be fairly
similar throughout both days with downslope flow likely from near
the Colorado Front Range through eastern New Mexico. These days will
have to be watched closely to determine if higher probabilities of
critical conditions will need to be introduced with future
issuances.
On Day 6/Sunday, the jet reaches farther south into the Southwest
and southern High Plains as the aforementioned large scale trough
digs farther south toward the region. Forecast guidance remains
uncertain due to the track and timing of the trough as it progresses
eastward. However, it's likely given the pattern that portions of
this area bear at least a 40% chance of critical conditions as a
cold front pushes south through the central/southern Plains.
At the end of the forecast period, much of the western CONUS will be
continuing to experience several consecutive days of drier and
warmer than normal conditions. While fuels are not yet receptive in
many of these areas, these anomalous conditions for mid March could
begin to affect fuel dryness well ahead of seasonal norms.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/10/2026
|
|
