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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 151632
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 151700Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS
AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
A 70-80 knot mid-level jet at the base of a progressive trough
across the central U.S. is moving into the Southern Plains. At the
surface, a powerful cold front and associated tighter pressure
gradients extend southwestward into the Southern Plains from a
strong low over the lower MO River Valley. A slight extension of
Critical highlights were made into portions of the TX Hill Country
based on latest model guidance.
...New Mexico, Western Texas and Far Southwestern Oklahoma...
Very poor relative humidity recoveries of 15-25% were observed this
morning across much of NM and West TX, with current relative
humidity values now between 10-15%. The favorable downslope
environment and very dry boundary layer ahead of the advancing cold
front will continue to support Critical fire weather conditions
across much of West TX and NM as the day progresses, including
west-northwest winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts and relative
humidity in the single digits in some locations. Localized Extremely
Critical fire weather conditions are still possible across portions
of central New Mexico primarily along and east of the Manzano Range
under the mid-level jet max, where fuels are marginally drier.
However, duration and extent of northwest winds of 30-40 mph with
higher gusts and alignment of relative humidity below 15% should be
limited as cooler temperatures and improvements in relative humidity
ensue this afternoon as the cold front moves through the region.
Expect abrupt northerly wind shifts as the cold front quickly
advances southward across the Southern Plains through today.
Although brief improvements in relative humidity have been apparent
behind the front through this morning, a very dry, post-frontal air
mass with dewpoints around 0 F amid daytime boundary layer mixing
could result in a secondary drop of relative humidity back into the
15-20% range this afternoon. This should be most apparent across
Northwest TX where the driest post-frontal conditions and higher
winds of 25-35 mph align and active fires have been observed.
..Williams.. 03/15/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026/
...Synopsis...
A strengthening and dynamic low pressure system will move eastward
through the Missouri/Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes today. On the
backside of this low, strong westerly gradients will support
enhancement of westerly surface flow ahead of a southward moving
cold front across the southern High Plains. Behind the front, a
shift to strong north to northwesterly flow is likely. Multiple
periods of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be
possible across much of New Mexico into western and southwestern
Oklahoma.
...New Mexico, Western Texas and Far Southwestern Oklahoma...
Overnight recoveries across New Mexico and western Texas are
expected to be poor. As of 05z, observed relative humidity is in the
single digits to teens, with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s
and continued gusty winds. Forecast maximum overnight relative
humidity through the morning ranges around 25-30%. It is likely that
Elevated to Critical conditions will be ongoing at the start of the
new D1 period this morning. Through the afternoon ahead of the cold
front across New Mexico and southwest/west Texas, increasing
west-northwest winds at 20-30 mph will overlap relative humidity
reductions to around 10-15%. Localized Extremely Critical fire
weather conditions are possible across portions of central New
Mexico along and east of the Sandia Manzano Range under a 80-90 knot
mid-level jet max at the base of an advancing trough. The resultant
enhanced downslope regime where west-northwest winds of 30-40 mph
with higher gusts coincide with relative humidity falling to around
10% should align with receptive fuels (ERC in the 80-90th percentile
range) to support this localized Extremely Critical threat, although
uncertainty in cloud cover and coverage precludes introduction of
Extremely Critical Highlights for this update.
Behind the cold front passage across the Texas Panhandle into
southwestern Oklahoma, temperatures cool and relative humidity will
briefly improve with a shift in the winds from westerly to
northerly. Deteriorating fire weather conditions will reemerge a few
hours later as surface dewpoints fall close to 0 F across the
southern High Plains. This will result in 15% or lower relative
humidity by peak afternoon heating amid 25-35 mph north/northwest
winds. This could have a considerable impact on active wildfires in
receptive fuels should they occur, particularly across Northwest TX
where the driest post-frontal conditions and higher winds align. The
overall fire weather threat shifts into Southern TX/Lower Rio Grande
Valley region Sunday evening, potentially lingering into the
overnight hours.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 151938
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS COAST...
Dry, post-frontal northerly flow is still expected to bring fire
weather concerns into portions of central and southern TX on
D2/Monday. Farther west, dry return flow on the western periphery of
surface high pressure settling into the Plains will bring an
Elevated fire weather threat to southeastern NM and far west TX.
...Southern and Central Texas...
Stronger northerly flow will commence this evening across southern
TX as a robust cold front quickly moves southward. Showers and
thunderstorms are more likely to develop along the cold front near
and east of the Houston metro area tonight into Monday morning,
leaving much of southern TX dry. Sustained north winds of 15-25 mph
and relative humidity between 15-25% by Monday afternoon are likely
across portions of the middle and lower TX Coast areas where fuels
remain very dry, including ongoing severe drought across far
southern TX. These conditions necessitated introduction of Critical
Highlights within a broader Elevated fire weather threat across
central/southern TX.
...Eastern New Mexico into west Texas...
Dry return flow on the western fringe of surface high pressure
settling into the central U.S. will affect portions of southeastern
NM and west TX Monday. A dry air mass will be in place across much
of the southern High Plains in the wake of a cold front. South winds
of 15-20 mph will develop and align with relative humidity of around
15% (despite considerably cooler temperatures) to bring an Elevated
fire weather threat to east-central and southeastern NM as well as
portions of western TX where dry fuels remain.
..Williams.. 03/15/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026/
...Synopsis...
Post frontal northerly flow will shift into southern/central Texas
for D2/Monday, with Elevated fire weather conditions expected. Dry
return flow will bring Elevated fire weather concerns across eastern
New Mexico into western Texas as a high builds across the southern
Plains and moves into the lower Mississippi River Valley.
...Eastern New Mexico into west Texas...
Across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, south to southeast
winds 10-15 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around
15-20%. An Elevated was maintained with this outlook to support this
threat. Fuels in this region are expected to be critically dry after
multiple days of dry/wind conditions.
...Southern/Central Texas...
Behind the southward advancing cold front, relative humidity
reductions to around 15-25% (locally around 10% in south Texas) will
overlap sustained north winds at 10-20 mph across portions of the
south Texas Brush Country to the Rio Grande Valley and across the
Middle Texas Coast. The D3 40 percent was maintained and expanded
across the coast with this update. Fuels across the south Texas
Brush Country are critically dry, with ERCs forecast to be around
the 75-90th percentile. Fuels across the middle Texas coast region
are more marginal but are forecast to be around the 50-75th
percentile by D2/Monday.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 152139
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0439 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 171200Z - 231200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough exits the Northeast by midweek while an
upper-level ridge builds across the southwestern U.S. This expanding
ridge across the Southwest will likely bring record breaking heat to
much of the southwestern U.S. Longer term guidance suggests a return
to a more active wave pattern at least across the northern CONUS
which could introduce another cold front into the central and
southern regions of the U.S. by early next week. However, the
opportunity for meaningful rainfall across much of the Intermountain
West and central/southern Plains remains very low.
...Day 3/Tuesday - Southern Plains...
Broad northwest flow over the northern Rockies should support the
development of lee surface troughing across the northern and central
High Plains on D3/Tuesday. Strengthening southwest winds across the
Southern Plains within a residual dry air mass will promote an
increasing fire weather threat for southeastern NM, west TX and
western OK. Some modification to the 40% critical probability area
was made based on latest model guidance, with some hints at a
corridor of enhanced southwest winds approaching 20 mph from TX Big
Bend northeastward into southwestern OK. Some uncertainty exists in
RH reductions which precludes introduction of 70% critical
probabilities at this time.
...Days 4-6/Wednesday-Friday - Central High Plains...
Persistent northwest flow aloft and subsequent surface lee troughing
response across the central/northern High Plains will promote a
multi-day dry and breezy downslope regime across southeastern WY and
adjacent NE Panhandle and far northeastern CO areas. Although some
recent precipitation has been observed, the building heat and dry
conditions should allow drying of fuels, particularly on D5/Thursday
and D6/Friday.
...Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday...
Anomalous, likely record breaking temperatures, dry conditions but
generally light winds across the Intermountain West and Southwest
will persist under a strong upper-level ridge through the weekend.
Longer term ensemble guidance does indicate some de-amplification
and eastward shift of the ridge over the weekend while a mid-level
short wave trough traverses the northern tier of CONUS. This could
invite another cold front into the Plains and related fire weather
concerns over a dry landscape but uncertainty in timing limits
predictability for the weekend time frame.
..Williams.. 03/15/2026
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