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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 261654
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Valid 261700Z - 271200Z
Minor adjustments to the outlook were made based on a southwestward
trend in the morning guidance with respect to the corridor of
strongest westerly winds across portions of the Texas Panhandle and
northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Otherwise, the forecast
remains on track.
..Supinie.. 12/26/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1227 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025/
...Synopsis...
An upper-level ridge over the central CONUS will remain
quasi-stationary throughout the day, with an embedded speed max
traversing the ridge from the Southwest into the Central Plains.
Diurnal heating/mixing will allow this enhanced flow aloft to mix
toward the surface, resulting in sustained westerly winds near 15
mph across portions of the southern High Plains. Additionally,
downslope westerly winds near 15-20 mph should develop along the lee
of the Rockies, extending into portions of central Colorado during
the afternoon. Afternoon RH values across these regions should fall
into the lower teens amid dry/receptive fuels, promoting Elevated
fire-weather conditions.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 261926
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
Some dry, downslope westerly winds are possible across portions of
northeastern Colorado during the day on Saturday ahead of a surface
cold front. Given the receptive fuels in the area, this may lead to
some brief Elevated fire weather risk during the afternoon. However,
uncertainty on the degree to which mid- and upper-level cloud cover
will impact mixing, and therefore the RH and wind strength, preclude
adding any highlights at this time. Otherwise, the previous forecast
remains largely on track with only minor adjustments made to the
Elevated highlights over the Texas Panhandle.
..Supinie.. 12/26/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025/
...Synopsis...
An upper-level ridge will remain in place along with an embedded
speed max across the central/southern Plains. The combination of lee
troughing and mixing should allow for sustained winds of 15-20 mph
to develop during the afternoon across the OK/TX Panhandles and
vicinity. Despite somewhat marginal RH values, perhaps approaching
the low to mid 20s, persistent dry conditions have led to
dry/receptive fuels, which will promote a few hours of Elevated
fire-weather conditions for this region.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 262111
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
A longwave mid-level ridge has been in place over the central CONUS
for the last several days. By early D3/Sunday, this feature will
begin to move eastward with a shortwave trough digging across the
northern and central Rockies on the western periphery of the ridge.
This shortwave trough will move eastward through D4/Monday, pushing
a cold front southward across the central and eastern CONUS.
Brief Elevated fire weather conditions may occur across portions of
west Texas and the Permian basin on Sunday with the cold front
passage, however rapidly cooling temperatures and increasing RH
behind the front is expected to inhibit a long-duration risk.
Additional fire weather risk may be present in the post-frontal
regime across central Texas on Monday afternoon. However, several
factors preclude introduction of highlights in this area, including
cool temperatures and uncertainties regarding cloud cover, which
could keep temperatures cooler and RH higher. Additionally, fuels in
the area are not particularly receptive to fire spread, and
precipitation early in the day may reduce susceptibility even
further.
By D5/Tuesday, a longwave trough is expected to become established
over the eastern half of the CONUS and remain there through the end
of the period, promoting surface high pressure and light winds
across the southern Plains. A shortwave trough embedded in the
northwesterly flow may push another cold front southward sometime
around D6/Wednesday or D7/Thursday, and this may carry some fire
risk with it, as well. However, confidence in any particular outcome
is not high enough to warrant highlights at this time.
..Supinie.. 12/26/2025
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