ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 141839

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1239 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   Minor changes were made to the ongoing forecast given the latest
   model guidance and fuel information. The forecast reasoning
   otherwise remains valid. See the previous discussion for additional
   information.

   ..Wendt.. 01/14/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0210 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   As the initial upper trough over the East moves offshore, flow aloft
   will turn more northwesterly ahead of a second potent upper trough
   moving south out of Canada. A strong jet streak and reinforcing cold
   front will approach from the north bolstering strong surface winds.
   With dry conditions already in place, the strong winds will likely
   support increasing fire-weather potential Thursday.

   ...Central and southern High Plains...
   Ahead of the second shortwave, lee troughing will promote stronger
   westerly downslope surface flow over parts of the central High
   Plains Thursday. With a dry air mass in place behind the prior cold
   front, bolstered by downsloping, afternoon RH values of 15-20% are
   expected. Surface winds of 20-30 mph overlapped with the low
   humidity will likely favor sustained elevated fire-weather
   conditions for several hours given very dry fine fuels over parts of
   Northeast CO, western NE and northwestern KS.

   A couple of hours of near-critical fire-weather concerns are also
   possible across the region Thursday afternoon. While the strongest
   gusts (30-40 mph) will likely not overlap with the lowest humidity,
   and some light precipitation is also expected D1/Wednesday
   potentially briefly limiting the driest fuels. Still with strong
   gusts in proximity to RH in the 20-30% range and fuels abnormally
   dry, brief critical fire-weather conditions are possible.

   Farther south, a similar, albeit slightly weaker, northwesterly flow
   regime is expected over parts of the TX Panhandle and eastern NM.
   Lee troughing will promote afternoon winds of 15-20 mph amid RH
   below 20%. With dry fuels in place, several hours of enhanced
   fire-weather conditions appear probable over parts of the southern
   Plains Thursday afternoon.

   ...Southeast...
   Very dry surface conditions are expected over the Southeast in the
   wake of the strong frontal passage. While afternoon RH values will
   likely be below 25%, much cooler surface temperatures and light
   precipitation are also expected. This should mitigate fire-weather
   concerns to some degree, though localized elevated conditions are
   possible given the dry state of areas fuels and the overlap with
   breezy offshore winds.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 142128

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0328 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

   Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

   The upper-level pattern over the next eight days will generally
   feature a trough in the East and a ridge in the West. This pattern 
   will favor repeated cold fronts pushing into areas east of the
   Divide. Precipitation will largely miss much of the Great
   Basin/Southwest/southern High Plains. The southern Plains will be
   the primary focus for fire weather concerns given the dry fuels that
   exist within the region. The level of risk will depend on the timing
   of the frontal passages as well as the strength of the cold air mass
   pushing southward. Predictability is low during this extended period
   due to some of those uncertainties.

   ...Southern Plains...
   After a recent cold air intrusion, temperatures should warm slightly
   for Thursday in advance of another cold front. On Friday, a stronger
   mid-level trough will dig into the southern Plains during the
   afternoon. A cold front will move through Oklahoma/North Texas
   during early Friday morning. In its wake, temperatures will be
   cooler, but the coldest air should lag behind the front. That being
   said, strong northwesterly winds of 15-25 mph (with higher gusts)
   and generally clear skies should promote boundary layer mixing with
   15-25% possible. Fuel receptiveness is high across the region.
   Elevated to perhaps localized critical conditions are possible.

   ..Wendt.. 01/14/2026