ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 160648

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0148 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A period of Elevated fire weather concerns will return on D2/Tuesday
   across the southern Plains. Westerly flow aloft will overspread the
   northern/central Rockies, with lee troughing strengthening across
   the northern/central High Plains. Strengthening southwest winds will
   extend into the Southern Plains where a residual dry air mass will
   promote an increasing fire weather threat for southeastern NM, west
   TX and western OK. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20%
   will overlap sustained south southwesterly winds 10-15 mph. A
   corridor of near Critical to Critical conditions may be possible
   within this broader Elevated. For now, confidence in coverage of
   critical winds is too low to include an area at this time, given low
   combined probabilities from ensemble guidance from the HREF.

   ..Thornton.. 03/16/2026

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 152139

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0439 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

   Valid 171200Z - 231200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level trough exits the Northeast by midweek while an
   upper-level ridge builds across the southwestern U.S. This expanding
   ridge across the Southwest will likely bring record breaking heat to
   much of the southwestern U.S. Longer term guidance suggests a return
   to a more active wave pattern at least across the northern CONUS
   which could introduce another cold front into the central and
   southern regions of the U.S. by early next week. However, the
   opportunity for meaningful rainfall across much of the Intermountain
   West and central/southern Plains remains very low.

   ...Day 3/Tuesday - Southern Plains...
   Broad northwest flow over the northern Rockies should support the
   development of lee surface troughing across the northern and central
   High Plains on D3/Tuesday. Strengthening southwest winds across the
   Southern Plains within a residual dry air mass will promote an
   increasing fire weather threat for southeastern NM, west TX and
   western OK. Some modification to the 40% critical probability area
   was made based on latest model guidance, with some hints at a
   corridor of enhanced southwest winds approaching 20 mph from TX Big
   Bend northeastward into southwestern OK. Some uncertainty exists in
   RH reductions which precludes introduction of 70% critical
   probabilities at this time.

   ...Days 4-6/Wednesday-Friday - Central High Plains...
   Persistent northwest flow aloft and subsequent surface lee troughing
   response across the central/northern High Plains will promote a
   multi-day dry and breezy downslope regime across southeastern WY and
   adjacent NE Panhandle and far northeastern CO areas. Although some
   recent precipitation has been observed, the building heat and dry
   conditions should allow drying of fuels, particularly on D5/Thursday
   and D6/Friday.

   ...Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday...
   Anomalous, likely record breaking temperatures, dry conditions but
   generally light winds across the Intermountain West and Southwest
   will persist under a strong upper-level ridge through the weekend.
   Longer term ensemble guidance does indicate some de-amplification
   and eastward shift of the ridge over the weekend while a mid-level
   short wave trough traverses the northern tier of CONUS. This could
   invite another cold front into the Plains and related fire weather
   concerns over a dry landscape but uncertainty in timing limits
   predictability for the weekend time frame.

   ..Williams.. 03/15/2026