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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 061538
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0938 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026
Valid 061700Z - 071200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST
KANSAS...THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND MUCH OF WEST TEXAS...
The eastern extent of the Elevated/Critical areas were expanded
slightly across western Oklahoma and west/central Texas. This was to
accommodate an eastward shift of the dryline shown with the latest
forecast guidance, which has a good handle on its current placement
and orientation as of this morning. Small portions of the eastern
Critical area were also excluded to account for recent isolated
rainfall over portions of the Texas Panhandle. The latest model
guidance is, so far, in agreement with the position of the
previously mentioned cold front constraining the northern periphery
of the Elevated/Critical areas today.
Satellite imagery and surface observations did show areas of stratus
and fog in the vicinity of the expanded area. However, as of
daybreak, those conditions were already beginning to retreat
eastward. Additionally, clear skies, low surface RHs near 15-25%,
and southwesterly winds gusting in excess of 25 mph are being
observed over portions of southeast New Mexico. Thus, conditions
within western portions of the Critical area are already beginning
to take shape.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0127 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026/
...Synopsis...
Split mid-level flow will develop over the CONUS through today as an
upper-level shortwave trough centered over the Four Corners ejects
northeastward across the central Great Plains while a cutoff low
develops over Arizona. At the surface, a strong lee surface cyclone
will develop southeastward from Colorado into northwestern Oklahoma
before transitioning quickly northeastward across the central Great
Plains. Strong southwesterly surface winds and very low RH values
behind a trailing dryline will support elevated to critical fire
weather conditions across portions of the southern High Plains. A
strong cold front will then progress southward late in the period.
...Eastern New Mexico into portions of West Texas and the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will strengthen as a shortwave trough
ejects northeastward across the central Great Plains today. Aided by
a strong surface pressure gradient to the southwest of the surface
low, this mid-level flow will contribute to sustained southwesterly
surface winds of 20-25 mph overlapping very low RH values of 10-15%
behind an eastward progressing dryline. With receptive fuels across
the region, these conditions will yield critical fire weather
conditions across much of eastern New Mexico and West Texas
northward through the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and into
southwestern Kansas. The lone exception is across portions of the
eastern Texas Panhandle where two areas of recent heavier rainfall
are expected to locally reduce fire weather concerns. Within the
Critical highlights, a 40+ kt 700 mb jet overlapping steep low-level
lapse rates will favor a corridor of locally stronger winds
(sustained surface winds of 20-30 mph with sporadic gusts to 35-45
mph possible) from east-central New Mexico northeastward into the
Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.
Elsewhere across the southern High Plains, westerly to southwesterly
sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph will overlap low RH values of
10-20%, supporting elevated fire weather conditions from the Texas
Big Bend northward to southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas.
A cold front will then move southward late in the period, bringing a
wind shift to north/northeasterly winds, which may allow for an
additional 2-3 hours of elevated fire weather conditions before
cooler temperatures and increased RH filter in.
Some uncertainty remains regarding the northern and eastern extents
of elevated/critical conditions due to the timing of the cold front
as well as the movement of the dryline, respectively. This will
continue to be monitored closely for any additional adjustments.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 061935
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes were made to the Day 2/Saturday Outlook. While elevated
criteria is close to being met over portions of the northern High
Plains, cold conditions Day 1/Friday behind the cold front will
mitigate any fire weather threat over that area in the short term.
However, above normal temperatures combined with dry and breezy
conditions Day 2/Saturday will precondition fuels ahead of a
potential fire weather threat on Day 3/Sunday.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level flow will split on D2/Saturday, with a mid-level
shortwave trough ejecting northeastward across the central Great
Plains and Great Lakes regions while a closed upper-low retrogrades
southwestward across portions of the Southwest, eventually settling
off the coast of northern Baja California. At the surface,
moderately strong high pressure will build into the Great Basin,
with a low pressure center settling over Baja California. Meanwhile,
a second surface low will progress northeastward from the northern
Great Lakes across southeastern Canada, with an attendant cold front
moving southeastward across the eastern CONUS. Widespread
precipitation and cooler temperatures accompanying this front are
expected to limit fire weather concerns at this time.
...Portions of Southern California...
Aided by strong northeasterly mid-level flow aloft, the placement of
the aforementioned surface features across the West will contribute
to strong and gusty offshore/northeast flow over portions of
Southern California. Sustained northeasterly surface winds of 20-25
mph (with gusts as high as 35-45 mph in favored coastal/terrain
areas) are forecast to overlap reduced RH of 15-20%; however,
unreceptive fuels are expected to preclude widespread fire weather
concerns at this time.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 062157
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 141200Z
Split upper-level flow will start out the extended period on Day
3/Sunday with a cutoff low over Baja California and a positively
tilted shortwave trough progressing east through the Great Lakes
region. By Day 4/Monday, upper-level flow becomes largely zonal
across northern portions of the CONUS. The aforementioned
upper-level low begins to move eastward, passing through the
southern Plains on Day 6/Wednesday in phase with another
strengthening shortwave trough progressing across the northern
Plains.
On Day 3/Sunday, a 40% area was introduced over portions of
northeast New Mexico and the west Texas Panhandle where afternoon
RHs are expected to drop to 8-15% coinciding with west-southwest
sustained winds at 15-25 mph. A 40% area was strongly considered for
portions of the northern High Plains, especially near the Black
Hills where the lowest afternoon RHs of 15-25% would combine with
the strongest westerly sustained winds of 15-25 mph. However, given
recent and ongoing precipitation, including snow, over these areas
on Day 1/Friday and forecast uncertainty, probabilities were not
introduced.
Weaker flow on Day 4/Monday over the Southwest and adjacent southern
High Plains is likely to present sub-Elevated fire weather
conditions. Thus, the decision was made to not include any marginal
probabilities with this issuance. Future outlooks will reconsider
this potential as forecast guidance evolves.
The aforementioned cutoff low begins to move eastward through the
Southwest and southern High Plains on Day 5/Tuesday and Day
6/Wednesday likely bringing precipitation to portions of the region.
While there are likely to be differences in the exact placement and
track of any precipitation, it does appear that some relief could be
headed for portions of these areas of recent concern.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/06/2026
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