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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 021537
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1037 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026
Valid 021700Z - 031200Z
...Morning Update...
The previous forecast remains on track. Cloud cover is gradually
expanding across the FL Panhandle as a cold front, currently draped
across northern FL and the Gulf Coast, slowly progresses southward
through the afternoon. In southern FL, current surface observations
depict westerly wind speeds of 15 mph and RH values quickly
decreasing as temperatures rise across the interior. Farther north,
a trailing dry cold front beneath a weak surface low is progressing
through eastern MT and northern ND. Mostly clear skies ahead of the
front will promote deeper mixing this afternoon, with surface
observations already depicting RH values declining to 30 percent and
southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph. Behind the front,
northwesterly winds of 15-25 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) are being
observed with a slight increase of RH. Cloud cover will gradually
expand across the area this afternoon, providing some relief to the
fire environment. However, poor overnight humidity recoveries are
expected, leading to another day of broader fire weather concerns on
Day 2/Sunday.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026/
...Synopsis...
Broad mid-level troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern
US Saturday as a weaker perturbation merges with it across the
northern Gulf Coast. As the upper trough deepens, the associated
southwesterly flow aloft will also strengthen. This will drive a
cold front into the Gulf, though gusty winds and dry conditions are
expected ahead of it over parts of FL. To the west, high pressure
will remain over the Great Basin and northwesterly flow aloft
persists over the central US.
...FL...
Widespread dry and breezy conditions are expected again today ahead
of the cold front moving across the FL Peninsula. Strong westerly
flow at the base of the deepening eastern US trough will overspread
the frontal zone this morning and afternoon, supporting gusty
westerly winds across parts of southern and central FL. Mid and
upper-level cloud cover are likely to accompany the front, though
breaks (becoming more frequent with southward extent) should support
some diurnal mixing. With westerly flow aloft increasing, surface
gusts of 10-20 mph are possible. This should support gusty winds
with RH below 40% for much of the region where rainfall has been
limited. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely.
A couple hours of locally critical conditions are possible through
the afternoon where occasional gusts of 15-20 mph could overlap with
RH below 35%. This appears most likely farther south and east where
humidity is expected to be lower and less likely to be impacted by
clouds. However, less upper-level support for strong mixing and
gusts is expected here. This suggests that while critical conditions
are possible, they are unlikely to be widespread or of long
duration.
Fire-weather concerns should end this evening as the front continues
to move southward. Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity
should accompany the frontal passage, with cooler conditions
developing behind the front.
...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
Behind the upper trough moving out of the Great lakes, continued
northwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Plains. An embedded
perturbation will deepen a weak surface low tracking from southern
Canada into the eastern Dakotas. Trailing the low, a cold front will
move southward, supporting gusty winds over parts of MT/WY and the
western Dakotas. While RH will be variable and somewhat marginal
given high cloud cover and the cooler air mass behind the front,
most guidance shows diurnal minimums below 30%. The strong northerly
winds of 15-25 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) are likely for several hours
following the frontal passage, supportive of Elevated fire weather
conditions given dry fuels.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 021730
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat May 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...Afternoon Update...
Slight expansions were made to the Elevated risk area across the
northern Plains to account for recent guidance depicting a broader
overlap of dry and breezy conditions. Otherwise, the previous
forecast remains on track. Across the southern Plains, localized
fire weather conditions are expected in pockets of dry fuels that
have not received recent rainfall nor transitioned to green up.
Notably, a very small region of the far northeastern TX Panhandle,
eastern OK Panhandle, and northwestern OK have not seen measurable
precipitation in the last 30 days with minimal (if any) transition
to green up where high fuel loading exists. However, increasing high
cloud cover throughout the afternoon may provide some relief to the
very localized fire environment.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026/
...Synopsis...
Split mid-level flow will develop over the US Sunday as an upper
trough exits the east coast and ridging remains in place across the
Great Basin. The northern branch of the flow aloft will remain
northwesterly over the Plains while a cutoff low is absorbed by the
strengthening sub tropical jet. The result will be unseasonably dry
conditions over much of the central CONUS where elevated
fire-weather conditions are possible across the northern Plains.
...Northern Plains...
An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to deepen as it moves
out of southern Canada into the northern US Sunday. At the surface,
an associated low will intensify as it traverses south-central
Canada. A strengthening surface pressure gradient should tighten
across much of the northern Plains, promoting dry and breezy
conditions ahead of a southward progressing cold front tied to the
low. Gusty winds of 20-30 mph are expected, along with RH below 30%.
Widespread dry and breezy conditions over a dry fuelscape should
promote elevated fire-weather potential.
...Southern High Plains...
Dry and breezy southerly flow is expected over parts of western OK
and the TX Panhandles Sunday beneath a northwesterly flow shortwave
trough. South/southwest gusts of 20-25 mph are possible during the
afternoon. With few clouds, afternoon RH values are expected to
decrease to below 20% near the lee trough. This could support some
localized fire-weather concerns. However, seasonably cooler
temperatures and rainfall/green up have tempered fuels such that
widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 022127
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0427 PM CDT Sat May 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper low will move onshore the West Coast on Day 3/Monday, then
transition to an open wave as it traverses the Southwest on Day
4/Tuesday. Concurrently, an upper trough will sag into the Midwest
and Great Lakes region before merging with southern stream troughing
over the Mid-South on Day 5/Wednesday. This pattern will provide
additional precipitation to the central Plains and portions of the
Eastern U.S. through mid-week, dampening broader fire weather
concerns. An upper ridge is expected to build across the Pacific
Northwest on Day 5/Wednesday, likely resulting in above normal
temperatures and dry conditions to prevail through the forecast
period for much of western CONUS.
Fire weather conditions reemerge for portions of the southern Plains
on Day 3/Monday as a deepening surface low tightens surface pressure
gradients across eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. Downslope
westerly winds of 15-20 mph and 15-20 percent RH will overlap a
confined region of dry fuels, maintaining 40% Critical
probabilities. Due to recent precipitation, probabilities were
trimmed to exclude areas that received appreciable rainfall. Dry and
breezy conditions may persist for parts of the Southern Plains into
West Texas on Day 4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday as southwesterly flow aloft
amplifies. However, guidance ambiguity in the placement of the upper
trough and timing of an approaching cold front precludes the
introduction of critical probabilities at this time.
As the upper trough traverses the Mid-South, increasing
southwesterly flow and poor moisture return should promote dry and
breezy conditions across the Mid-Atlantic on Day 4/Tuesday. However,
critical probabilities have been withheld due to recent appreciable
rainfall, marginal fuels, and expected moisture return overnight Day
4/Tuesday into Day 5/Wednesday.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/02/2026
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