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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 120627
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast today as a strong and
deepening surface cyclone associated with an intense 100+ kt
mid-level jet moves from the Northern Great Plains into the upper
Midwest, with an expansive wind field bringing dry and breezy
conditions to the Central and Southern Great Plains.
...Central and Southern Great Plains...
Strong west-northwesterly flow aloft and deep boundary layer mixing
will result in dry and windy conditions across much of the Central
and Southern Great Plains. With the winds having a strong downslope
component, widespread relative humidity of 10-15% will overlap with
winds of 25-35 MPH. The strongest winds will occur across northern
portions of the outlook area (closer to the surface low), primarily
across Wyoming and Nebraska reaching 35-40 MPH. However, these
stronger winds will occur with relatively higher relative humidity
(25-35%) and fuels that have received some recent wetting rainfall.
In the Southern Plains, winds will be generally weaker around 25 MPH
but with significantly drier surface conditions at around 10%
relative humidity and critically dry fuels.
..Halbert.. 03/12/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 120628
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...Synopsis...
Dry and breezy downslope winds are forecast to return to the Central
and Southern High Plains on Friday as deep boundary layer mixing
transports strong west-northwesterly flow from aloft to the surface.
Widespread winds of 15-20 MPH and relative humidity of 10-15% is
expected to overlap with dry and receptive fuels. Locally critical
conditions may occur where favored by topography, but uncertainty in
the magnitude and duration of these stronger winds precludes
Critical highlights at this time.
..Halbert.. 03/12/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 112207
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0507 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 191200Z
Northwest flow aloft will be in place across much of the CONUS on
Day 3/Friday. Flow becomes more zonal across much of the central
CONUS for Day 4/Saturday as the first indications of a upper level
shortwave trough drops through the Pacific Northwest. By Day
5/Sunday, this trough digs significantly southward over the central
Plains and reaches the southern Appalachian Mountains by Day
6/Monday before retreating northward again on Day 7/Tuesday over the
Eastern Seaboard. The latest forecast guidance continues to dig the
trough farther south with successive runs, suggesting some
uncertainty related to the trough's evolution as it moves eastward.
Meanwhile, an upper level ridge will build over the western CONUS
while the Great Plains remain between the two features under
northwest flow. Forecast guidance continues to show the upper level
high strengthening well above seasonal norms generally centered over
Arizona Day 8/Wednesday and beyond.
On Day 3/Friday, downslope flow off the central and southern Rocky
Mountains will continue. Minimal changes were made to the 40%
probabilities for this day. Forecast guidance continues to show wind
and RH values falling within elevated criteria. Over the southern
and central Appalachians, there remains significant differences in
forecast guidance as to how dry surface air will become under the
post-frontal environment not mention preceding rainfall. This will
be watched with future issuances.
On Day 4/Saturday, the latest forecast guidance indicates a slightly
more southerly track associated with the aforementioned deep trough.
This will allow for stronger winds to impact much of the state of
New Mexico, thus necessitating a 70% area of critical conditions.
The limiting factor keeping the outlook area from being drawn
farther west was the high fuel moistures across extreme western New
Mexico into Arizona and Utah where wind and RHs are expected to meet
criteria. However, this event will serve to pre-condition fuels in
these areas. Farther north through the Front Range, yet another day
of downslope winds will need to be watched for trends toward a
potential mountain wave setup.
On Day 5/Sunday, on the back side of the trough, expect northwest
flow to provide another day of strong winds associated with
persistent dry air again over southeastern New Mexico and much of
west Texas. The 40% area was moved slightly south over this region
with a 70% area also introduced over extreme southeast New Mexico
and portions of nearby west Texas.
Well above normal temperatures and dry conditions will serve to cure
fuels over the course of several consecutive days across the
southern half of the western CONUS through the outlook period.
Regardless of winds, RHs would suggest extended burn periods across
these areas given receptive fuels.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/11/2026
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