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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 131655
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1055 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 131700Z - 141200Z
...Central High Plains...
Elevated fire weather conditions remain likely across portions of
the central High Plains through this afternoon. Development of
robust northwest winds is underway as deep layer northwesterly flow
increases through the afternoon. Despite cloud cover ahead of an
approaching cold front, well above normal temperatures in the 50s
and 60s, RH reductions close to 20% by mid afternoon and northwest
winds of 15-25 mph over receptive fuels will support elevated to
locally critical fire weather conditions across northeastern CO, far
southeastern WY and southwestern NE Panhandle. A slight
southeastward extension of Elevated highlights was made into
northwest KS.
...Southern Plains...
A dry air mass remains in place across eastern NM, TX Panhandle and
much of OK. A surface trough extends southwestward from the Great
Lakes to the Southern Plains, promoting development of broad, but
weak west-southwest winds across Northwest TX and OK through the
afternoon. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible
across the Red River Valley and southeastern OK where winds approach
15 mph and RH falls below 20% this afternoon.
...Southeast...
Dry conditions will persist across the Southeast as surface high
pressure slides southeastward into the Atlantic. A light southwest
wind of 10 mph or less is likely to develop across the Piedmont
region in response to a surface low moving into Ontario. Brief,
locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible where fuels
remain dry and RH falls to 25% across coastal GA and the Carolinas.
..Williams.. 01/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0217 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026/
...Synopsis...
Troughing over the eastern US will intensify today with strong
north-northwesterly flow overspreading much of the Plains. A
prominent shortwave will move southward along with a strong surface
cold front. The increase in strong flow aloft and the front will
bolster surface winds over the High Plains, supporting Elevated
fire-weather conditions.
...Central High Plains...
As the upper trough deepens and moves east, a potentate shortwave
feature on the western flank will move southeastward over the
Rockies and High Plains. Strong northwesterly flow aloft will
overspread the region. The upper-level support along with ongoing
lee troughing and building high pressure to the west will promote
very breezy northwest winds of 15-25 mph and higher gusts. However,
RH values will likely be only modest given orographic cloud cover
and the cooler surface temperatures behind the front. Still, RH
below 30% overlapped with very dry/dormant fuels and several hours
of favorable dry/breezy conditions will likely support elevated fire
weather threat for northeastern CO, far southeastern WY and
southwestern NE Panhandle. Fire concerns should end quickly tonight
as the cold front and cooler air mass arrive with strong northerly
flow.
...TX/OK...
Modest southwest winds associated with a weak surface trough
extending from the Great Lakes region to the southern Plains will be
a primary mitigating factor in a broader fire weather threat today.
Still, unusually warm temperatures and afternoon RH near 20% across
northwestern Texas and southwestern could support localized
fire-weather concerns where winds of up to 15 mph amid drier fuels
are expected.
A weak upper low with light precipitation over south TX and the Rio
Grande Valley could temporarily limit fuel availability today.
However, only light precipitation is expected and the state of
short-hour fuels is such that rapid drying is possible.
...Southeast...
Dry conditions will likely persist over the Southeast as surface
high pressure settles over the Southeast. While strong winds appear
unlikely, residual dry air mass will persist across the Southeastern
U.S. where RH will fall to as low as 25% With drier fuels in place,
this could support some brief localized fire-weather concerns
despite limited winds, especially across parts of coastal GA and the
Carolinas where little rainfall has occurred recently.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 131922
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
A strong cold front moving through the Southern Plains will bring
north winds of 20-30 mph across the region on Wednesday. Although RH
reductions will be limited to around 30% with cooler temperatures
advecting southward, the strong north winds and receptive finer
fuels should still support an elevated fire risk through Wednesday
afternoon. Elevated highlights were refined across central and
northwestern TX to compensate for observed rainfall distribution
associated with a recent mid-level low over central and northwestern
TX. Latest model guidance shows drier conditions (RH below 30% in
some locations) concentrated across the Permian Basin in western TX
where elevated fire weather highlights were expanded. Please see
previous discussion for more details.
..Williams.. 01/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026/
...Synopsis...
Persistent and strong upper-level troughing is expected over the
eastern US Day2/Wednesday. As the trough intensifies, a surface low
and cold front will rapidly move eastward. Behind the front, strong
north/northwesterly winds are likely over parts of the Plains and
eventually the Southeast. This, and dry conditions may support some
elevated fire-weather potential.
...Southern Plains to the Rio Grande Valley...
A dry cold front will sweep into the Southern Plains and south TX
Wednesday as the strong upper trough continues to deepen over the
eastern U.S. Accompanying the front, gusty north winds of 20-30 mph
are expected across parts of OK and TX. This will enhance wildfire
risk over parts of the southern Plains ahead of the cooler air mass.
Still, the cooler temperatures and cloud will likely keep RH
reductions more modest with minimums around 30%. This will likely
limit a broader sustained fire-weather threat, but dry fine fuels
remain capable of supporting some fire spread given the windy
conditions.
Farther south, some precipitation may temporarily limit fuels as a
weak upper low with preceding rain weakens over central TX. Still,
rapid drying is expected given the increase in winds and could
support dry and breezy conditions all the way to the Rio Grande
Valley. Given the state of fuels and what is expected to be light
and sporadic precipitation, elevated fire-weather conditions are
possible, but certainty remains too low to introduce highlights
farther south at this time.
...Southeast...
Dry conditions are again expected over parts of the Southeast. While
winds should remain light ahead of the advancing cold front,
afternoon RH values below 35% and dry fuels could support localized
fire-weather concerns. Winds will increase after dark, though rapid
humidity recovery is expected with the frontal passage overnight.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 132117
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 211200Z
...Synopsis...
A persistent upper-level troughing pattern across the eastern U.S.
will invite largely cooler, more stable conditions across the
region. Primary fire-effective weather concerns continue to be
impacts from frontal passages through the weekend across the central
and southern Plains where precipitation is unlikely and dry fuels
remain. The Southeast is also susceptible to dry, post frontal winds
but preceding precipitation on Day 2/Wednesday could mitigate a
larger fire weather threat.
...Day 3/Thursday...
Broad northwesterly flow aloft should contribute to a strengthening
lee surface trough across the northern and central Plains on Day
3/Thursday. Dry, downsloping flow from the west-southwest is likely
to develop across the southern High Plains, aligning with
receptive/dormant fine fuels to enhance fire risk. Farther north, an
advancing cold front within a broad northwesterly flow regime should
support strong northwest winds across portions of the central Plains
Thursday. Some precipitation is anticipated through the early Day
2/Wednesday period but probabilities of significant amounts appear
low. Dry conditions and onset of stronger northwest surface winds
returning rapidly Thursday, supporting an enhanced fire weather
concern where pockets drier fuels overlap. 40% critical
probabilities were introduced for portions of northeast CO into
northwest KS. Dry, post-frontal northwest flow (with enhanced
downslope drying in the lee of the Appalachians) should envelope
much of the Piedmont region Thursday. However, colder temperatures
and preceding rainfall, albeit light, could largely mitigate the
fire weather threat.
...Day 4/Friday...
Fire weather concerns increase across the Southern Plains on Day
4/Friday as a cold front quickly translates southward into the
region ahead of a pronounced upper-level short wave over the
Midwest. A drier, continental-polar air mass behind the front will
support lower surface dew points and daytime relative humidity
across the central and southern Plains Day 4/Friday. The most likely
area for alignment of gusty winds and driest conditions remains
across portions of the OK/TX Panhandles and western OK where 40%
probabilities were introduced, while colder temperatures and cloud
cover could somewhat mitigate the fire weather threat farther north
in the central Plains.
...Day 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday...
Larger scale pattern of ridging across the West and complimentary
troughing in the eastern U.S. is likely to hold through early next
week. Fire weather predictability challenges arise by the weekend
with increased uncertainty in timing of frontal features east of the
Continental Divide. However, the Southern Plains and Southeast
remain susceptible to these events given dry fuels and minimal
expected rainfall.
..Williams.. 01/13/2026
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