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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 161604
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 161700Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...Central and northern High Plains...
A surface low will deepen in the northern and central Plains ahead
of an approaching upper-level trough currently traversing the
Northern Rockies. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft and
consolidating surface pressure gradient will aid in developing gusty
south to southwest winds accompanied by a dry, well-mixed boundary
later across much of the central and northern Plains this afternoon.
A corridor of stronger southerly winds is expected across portions
of eastern SD and southwestern MN although RH reductions should be
limited to the 20-25% range this afternoon. Nonetheless, receptive
fuels coupled with the increasing southerly winds in place could
support wildfire spread, necessitating a northeastward extension of
Elevated Highlights into this region.
...Southern Plains...
Lee surface troughing extends southward from the evolving surface
low in the Northern Plains into the central and southern High
Plains. A considerably drier boundary layer and supportive downslope
trajectories will allow for Critical fire weather conditions across
portions of eastern CO, northeastern NM and OK/TX Panhandles. Poor
relative humidity recoveries were observed across portions of the
southern High Plains, with current RH at 10% or below across
southeastern NM and northwest TX. Southwest winds of 15-25 mph amid
the presence of a 90F+ low-level thermal ridge and RH dropping into
the single digits during peak heating this afternoon, will support
critical fire weather conditions. Critical and corresponding
Elevated Highlights were nudged southward into portions of Northwest
TX to account for current surface observation trends and near term
model guidance.
The forecast remains on track for an elevated fire weather threat
across portions of the Central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic with no
changes to current highlights. Please see previous discussion for
additional details.
..Williams.. 04/16/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will deepen as it moves into the southern
Great Basin/Four Corners today and tonight. As the trough
intensifies, an initially modest subtropical jet will strengthen
across northern Mexico into the southern Plains. At the surface, a
strong low pressure system will deepen across SD as an associated
cold front moves southward into the central Plains. Another
shortwave trough will move over the eastern US bolstering low-level
winds across parts of the Appalachians and Mid Atlantic.
...Central and Southern High Plains...
As upper forcing from the approaching trough spreads over the
Rockies into the plains, the surface low will deepen and move
southeastward with the cold front. This should encourage a broad
area of strong west/southwesterly downslope winds from eastern WY
and SD, into parts of the central Plains. Sustained southwesterly
winds of 15-25 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) amid 10-15 percent RH are
expected atop very dry and receptive fuels, supporting critical fire
weather concerns. Fire-weather conditions will gradually end
overnight from north to south as the front moves south with the
surface low.
Farther south across OK/TX and NM, a surface pressure trough will
encourage gusty westerly low-level flow. Sustained winds of 15-25
mph are likely as the surface low gradually moves southward ahead of
the cold front. Low RH is also expected (10-15%) owing to downslope
trajectories and warm afternoon temperatures. While some areas have
seen rainfall in the past few days, several days of poor humidity
recoveries and gusty winds have allowed for significant drying and a
broad area of critical fuels.
...Central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic...
Strengthening southwesterly flow at the base of the shortwave tough
will encourage strengthening of a lee trough. This will aid gusty
downslope winds of 10-15 mph through the afternoon. Afternoon RH
values will drop to 25-30%. With little recent rainfall and very dry
fuels, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear
likely. More localized fire-weather conditions could extend into
southern and central PA. However, here increased RH and weaker winds
amid areas of recent rainfall should limit broader concerns.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 161929
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...Southern Plains...
Increasing mid-level southwesterly flow moves into the Great Plains
Friday as an upper trough over the Intermountain West moves east. At
the surface, an elongated surface trough and associated trailing
cold front will stretch from the southern High Plains into the Upper
Midwest. Some mid/upper cloud cover will infiltrate the southern
High Plains through tonight. This could lead to reduced boundary
layer decoupling supporting elevated overnight surface winds and
poor RH recoveries (perhaps staying below 30%) leading into Friday
morning, particularly across eastern NM into the TX/OK Panhandles,
southeastern CO and western KS. These preconditioned fuels, already
quite receptive to fire spread, combined with southwest winds of
20-25 mph with gusts close to 40 mph and RH in the single digits by
peak afternoon heating, will support Critical fire weather
conditions for much of the southern High Plains Friday. A strong
cold front will quickly push southward late in the day from a
quasi-stationary position in southeastern CO and southern KS into
the Southern Plains through Friday night. Fire weather concerns
should be limited to the initial frontal passage and its potential
impact to ongoing fires, with increasing cloud cover, higher
relative humidity and cooler temperatures behind the front generally
promoting an improved fire weather environment through Friday night.
Only minor changes were made to the existing Critical and Elevated
highlights across this region based on latest model guidance.
...Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic...
Westerly flow aloft in the wake of a departing short wave trough is
expected to linger across the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic region
Friday. Weak surface troughing in the lee of the Appalachians will
support downslope drying and westerly winds of around 10 mph.
Although strong winds are not expected, well above normal
temperatures, persistently dry conditions and expanding drought have
led to exceptionally dry fuels across the region. Relative humidity
of around 25-30% is expected in downslope favored areas in the lee
of the Appalachians. A slight eastward expansion of Elevated
highlights was made into the coastal plains of VA and NC.
..Williams.. 04/16/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move into the central U.S. and deepen Friday as
an associated mid-level speed max intensifies over the central
Plains. A deepening surface low and a strong cold front will promote
critical fire weather conditions over the southern Plains. A second
shortwave impulse will exit the eastern U.S. supporting above normal
temperatures and some lingering dry/breezy conditions over the
central Appalachians and Carolinas.
...TX/NM...
As the primary shortwave trough over the Great Basin begins to eject
eastward, strong flow aloft will overspread the southern High
Plains. The surface low in eastern CO is forecast to deepen as it
lifts northeastward, dragging the front southward. Gusty southwest
surface winds, bolstered by westerly flow aloft, will develop across
eastern NM, into the TX/OK Panhandles by mid morning. Gusts of 30-40
mph are possible. Warm temperatures west of the dryline will support
RH minimums below 15%. Widespread critical fire-weather conditions
are likely within dry fuels.
Farther north, gusty post-frontal winds are possible over parts of
southwestern KS and the central Plains. RH values will climb quickly
through the day as temperatures cool. Brief elevated fire-weather
conditions are possible where fuels have remained dry. The front
will continue to move south into TX/OK/NM Friday afternoon and into
the evening. This will likely result in a rapid wind shift which
could locally exacerbate burning conditions briefly. Adjustments to
the northern edge of the Elevated and Critical areas could also be
necessary as uncertainty on frontal timing is reduced in subsequent
updates.
...Central Appalachians...
In the wake of the departing shortwave trough, flow aloft is
forecast to weaken over much of the Appalachians. Still, residual
westerly flow may encourage lee troughing, helping to bolster
downslope winds to near 10 mph. With very warm/dry surface
conditions expected with subsequent mid-level ridging, low afternoon
RH is expected. This, in combination with no recent rainfall and
critical fuels, should support a few hours of elevated fire-weather
conditions from VA, into the western Carolinas.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 162156
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 241200Z
...Synopsis...
A robust upper-level trough will move into the Great Lakes over the
weekend while a cold front sweeps into the Mid Atlantic by early
next week. Enhanced southwest winds ahead of the cold front should
maintain a fire weather concern for the Southeast and Mid Atlantic
on Day 3/Saturday where fuels remain very dry. Stronger northwest
winds and a dry air mass in the wake of the upper trough should
bring an enhanced fire weather threat across portions of the central
High Plains on Saturday, where little to no precipitation is
expected. Dry return flow on the western periphery of broad surface
high pressure across the eastern U.S. will bring fire weather
concerns to portions of the southern and central Plains on Day
4/Sunday. Persistent northwest flow should bring dry and breezy
conditions into early next week across portions of the Mid Atlantic
and Southeast.
...Day 3/Saturday...
...Central Plains, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic...
Dry, post-frontal northwesterly flow will pose a fire weather
concern for portions of NE, eastern CO and KS on Day 3/Saturday,
where a lack of precipitation maintains receptive fuels prompting
the addition of 40% critical probabilities. Farther east, increasing
southwest flow ahead of an advancing cold front coupled with the
lack of Gulf moisture return and resultant low RH should bring a
fire weather threat across much of the Piedmont into the Mid
Atlantic. Lack of recent and expected rainfall continues to
exacerbate fuel conditions across this region.
...Day 4-5/Sunday-Monday...
...Southern Plains...
Lee surface troughing across the central/northern High Plains as
high pressure settles into eastern TX will support a broad southerly
return flow across portions of the southern High Plains Sunday. The
enhanced south/southwest winds of 15-25 mph, low RH amid a
well-mixed boundary layer and continued receptive fuelscape supports
a higher likelihood of critical fire weather conditions across
portions of the OK/TX Panhandles into southwest KS. 70% critical
probabilities were introduced within the broader 40% area
encompassing much of the southern High Plains.
...Southeast...
A fire weather threat should persist in the absence of meaningful
precipitation over the weekend. Dry post-frontal north/northwest
flow amid exceptionally dry fuels and drought necessitated
introduction of 40% critical probabilities from central GA into the
Piedmont region of the Carolinas. Thunderstorms along the cold front
over the weekend could produce a few ignitions across the
Appalachian region over the weekend. However, wetting rains are more
probable given lack of dry sub-cloud layer supportive of evaporative
effects and overall higher atmospheric water content. The deep layer
northwest (offshore) flow aloft will support continued dry and
breezy conditions across the Southeast Day 5/Monday, where two
targeted 40% critical probabilities were added.
...Day 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday...
Dry and breezy conditions ahead the next upper trough could reemerge
across the Southwest and Southern Plains as midweek approaches.
However, forecast uncertainty in timing and progression through the
West limits predictability of fire weather impacts across the region
for the middle of next week, precluding introduction of critical
probabilities at this time.
..Williams.. 04/16/2026
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