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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 141626
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Valid 141700Z - 151200Z
...South-Central Texas...
Current radar and satellite imagery shows a convective line
extending across the Edwards Plateau, although increasingly limited
upstream development is noted closer to the TX/Mexico border. Short
term model guidance indicates heavier rainfall remaining to the
northeast of the Rio Grande Valley in South-Central TX as the cold
front sweeps southeastward through tonight, allowing at least some
pockets of receptive fuels to persist. Drier, post-frontal flow is
still expected across South-Central TX this afternoon. RH falling to
as low as 20% will coincide with northwest winds of 15-20 mph to
promote elevated fire weather conditions near the Rio Grande in
South-Central TX.
..Williams.. 02/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1208 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the southern Plains
through the day today, advancing a dryline eastward across portions
of central and southern Texas. To the west of the dryline near the
Rio Grande Valley, winds are expected to be in the 15-20 mph range
with rapidly falling RH. RH may drop to 20-25%, though there is some
uncertainty with how low the RH will be, which may limit the overall
fire weather risk. However, given dry antecedent conditions and dry
fuels with any wetting rains staying largely to the north and east,
elected to continue the Elevated highlights for this region.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 141955
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR
SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...
...Northwestern Nebraska and far South-Central South Dakota...
Increasing westerly flow at the crest of an upper-level ridge is
expected Sunday. A corresponding lee trough forming across the
northern/central Plains will enhance surface winds across the
region. A low-level jet collocated atop the broader southwest
surface wind field in northwestern NE and far south-central SD,
along with RH reductions to 15-20% and markedly dry fuels should
yield a few hours of critical fire weather conditions across the
area Sunday afternoon where critical highlights have been added.
...Central High Plains...
Slight modifications to the existing broad region of elevated
highlights were needed owing to recent precipitation across portions
of eastern CO and western KS. Expanding upper-level cloud cover over
the High Plains adjacent to the CO Front Range could reduce boundary
layer mixing and subsequent surface wind speeds for the area,
mitigating a broader fire weather concern. Downslope enhanced winds
of 15-25 mph with higher gusts should emerge south of the Palmer
Divide amid afternoon RH of around 15%. However, recent observed
rainfall between 0.10-0.40" should temporarily mitigate an otherwise
critical fire weather environment across the area.
..Williams.. 02/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1209 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026/
...Synopsis...
Mid-level shortwave ridging is expected to be over the southern
Rockies during the day on Sunday with a weak jet max near the apex
of the ridge over northern Colorado and southern Wyoming. This
should result in dry, breezy conditions across parts of the central
and northern High Plains and downslope flow along the Front Range in
Colorado. RH near 15-20% is expected along in the presence of winds
near 15-20 mph with localized higher winds possible near the
mountainous terrain. These factors along with dry fuels in the area
prompted the addition of an Elevated area across portions of the
central and northern High Plains. Precipitation is expected across
parts of northwestern Kansas and eastern Colorado, with the much of
the wetting rains expected to remain south of the Elevated risk
area. However, if more or less rain falls than expected, adjustments
may be needed in this area.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 132202
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0402 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 211200Z
...Synopsis...
A persistent upper-level troughing regime is likely to evolve across
the western U.S., with several short wave features ejecting into the
Plains through next week. Enhanced and broad mid-level flow over the
southern U.S. along with subsequent lee cyclogenesis events are
expected to a bring multi-day fire weather threat to portions of the
central and southern Plains through at least Day 7/Thursday.
...Day 3/Sunday - Central Plains and Colorado Front Range...
Increasing mid-level winds over the Southern Rockies ahead of a
broad trough approaching the West Coast, along with surface trough
development across the Northern Plains should favor dry, downslope
flow across the CO Front Range. The dry and breezy conditions will
likely align with dry fuels to support an increasing fire weather
threat for the Front Range where 40% critical probabilities have
been introduced. Enhanced fire weather concerns remain farther
northeast across western NE and adjacent areas where a broader
west-southwest wind field associated with the surface trough/low
aligns with dry conditions and fuels.
...Day 4/Monday - Eastern NM and the TX Panhandle...
A negatively tilted upper-level trough heads into the West Coast on
Day 4/Monday. Increasing mid-level flow on the nose of a pronounced
mid-level jet along with continued lee troughing should promote dry
and breezy conditions across portions of eastern NM and the TX
Panhandle on Monday. The dry, downslope-favored flow from the
west-southwest along with minimal preceding rainfall and abundant
dry fuels necessitated introduction of a 40% critical probability
area for eastern NM and the TX Panhandle vicinity.
...Day 5-7/Tuesday-Thursday - Southern and Central Plains...
Forecast confidence is increasing for a more expansive fire weather
threat for the southern and central Plains for Day 5/Tuesday.
Pronounced surface cyclogenesis across the central Plains along with
an impinging 90-100 knot jet core at the base of a mid-level trough
will likely produce a broad fire weather concern from southeastern
WY, eastern CO and particularly across the southern Plains. A 70%
critical probability area has been introduced into far eastern NM
and the northwest TX Panhandle where alignment of deep-layer
southwesterly flow (including critical low relative humidity),
dry/receptive fuels and absence of recent precipitation is most
likely. A dry, downslope regime should remain over the southern High
Plains on Day 6/Wednesday imparting additional fire weather threats
to eastern NM and the TX Panhandle area. A similar synoptic setup as
Day 5/Tuesday likely emerges for Day 7/Thursday, where another
mid-level short wave and attendant jet max enters the Southern
Plains. An emergent deepening cyclone across the Central Plains
should yield expanding dry, southwest flow across the Southern
Plains where 40% critical probabilities have been introduced.
..Williams.. 02/13/2026
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