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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 141451
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0851 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026
Valid 141700Z - 151200Z
No changes to the ongoing forecast.
..Wendt.. 01/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026/
...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough over the eastern half of the US will rapidly
intensify today and tonight as it merges with a weak upper low over
the southern US. Strong northerly flow aloft will develop as a
surface old front moves southward over the Plains and central US.
Behind the front, strong north/northwesterly winds are likely over
parts of the Plains and eventually the Southeast. This, and
persistent dry conditions may support some elevated fire-weather
potential.
...Central TX...
As strong troughing deepens over the eastern US, a dry cold front
will sweep into the Southern Plains and south TX. Along and behind
the front, a strong surface pressure gradient will drive north winds
of 20-30 mph over much of the southern and central Plains. Although
RH reductions will be limited to around 30% with cooler temperatures
advecting southward, the strong winds and dry fine fuels should
still support an elevated fire risk across central TX.
Surface winds will slacken some with southward extent as the primary
front arrives later in the diurnal cycle across the Rio Grande
Valley and South TX. Drier surface conditions will likely support
afternoon RH minimums near 20-25%. While the arrival of the stronger
northerly winds will be ill timed, the lower RH and drier fuels
should also support some fire-weather risk into South TX through the
afternoon and first part of the evening. The Elevated area was
expanded to the southern border for a conditional risk for Elevated
conditions.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 141839
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
Minor changes were made to the ongoing forecast given the latest
model guidance and fuel information. The forecast reasoning
otherwise remains valid. See the previous discussion for additional
information.
..Wendt.. 01/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0210 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026/
...Synopsis...
As the initial upper trough over the East moves offshore, flow aloft
will turn more northwesterly ahead of a second potent upper trough
moving south out of Canada. A strong jet streak and reinforcing cold
front will approach from the north bolstering strong surface winds.
With dry conditions already in place, the strong winds will likely
support increasing fire-weather potential Thursday.
...Central and southern High Plains...
Ahead of the second shortwave, lee troughing will promote stronger
westerly downslope surface flow over parts of the central High
Plains Thursday. With a dry air mass in place behind the prior cold
front, bolstered by downsloping, afternoon RH values of 15-20% are
expected. Surface winds of 20-30 mph overlapped with the low
humidity will likely favor sustained elevated fire-weather
conditions for several hours given very dry fine fuels over parts of
Northeast CO, western NE and northwestern KS.
A couple of hours of near-critical fire-weather concerns are also
possible across the region Thursday afternoon. While the strongest
gusts (30-40 mph) will likely not overlap with the lowest humidity,
and some light precipitation is also expected D1/Wednesday
potentially briefly limiting the driest fuels. Still with strong
gusts in proximity to RH in the 20-30% range and fuels abnormally
dry, brief critical fire-weather conditions are possible.
Farther south, a similar, albeit slightly weaker, northwesterly flow
regime is expected over parts of the TX Panhandle and eastern NM.
Lee troughing will promote afternoon winds of 15-20 mph amid RH
below 20%. With dry fuels in place, several hours of enhanced
fire-weather conditions appear probable over parts of the southern
Plains Thursday afternoon.
...Southeast...
Very dry surface conditions are expected over the Southeast in the
wake of the strong frontal passage. While afternoon RH values will
likely be below 25%, much cooler surface temperatures and light
precipitation are also expected. This should mitigate fire-weather
concerns to some degree, though localized elevated conditions are
possible given the dry state of areas fuels and the overlap with
breezy offshore winds.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 142128
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 221200Z
The upper-level pattern over the next eight days will generally
feature a trough in the East and a ridge in the West. This pattern
will favor repeated cold fronts pushing into areas east of the
Divide. Precipitation will largely miss much of the Great
Basin/Southwest/southern High Plains. The southern Plains will be
the primary focus for fire weather concerns given the dry fuels that
exist within the region. The level of risk will depend on the timing
of the frontal passages as well as the strength of the cold air mass
pushing southward. Predictability is low during this extended period
due to some of those uncertainties.
...Southern Plains...
After a recent cold air intrusion, temperatures should warm slightly
for Thursday in advance of another cold front. On Friday, a stronger
mid-level trough will dig into the southern Plains during the
afternoon. A cold front will move through Oklahoma/North Texas
during early Friday morning. In its wake, temperatures will be
cooler, but the coldest air should lag behind the front. That being
said, strong northwesterly winds of 15-25 mph (with higher gusts)
and generally clear skies should promote boundary layer mixing with
15-25% possible. Fuel receptiveness is high across the region.
Elevated to perhaps localized critical conditions are possible.
..Wendt.. 01/14/2026
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