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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 161607

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1007 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

   Valid 161700Z - 171200Z

   ...Southern and Central Plains...
   Increasing westerly flow aloft and associated strengthening surface
   lee troughing across the central/southern High Plains will  support
   dry and breezy conditions across portions of eastern CO, eastern NM
   and OK/TX Panhandles through this afternoon. Sustained
   south/southwest winds approaching 20 mph coinciding with minimum RH
   between 15 and 20 percent will promote elevated fire weather
   conditions amid a receptive fuelscape. Boundary layer decoupling
   could be delayed across the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest KS
   supporting a lingering fire weather threat into the late evening
   hours, where surface wind reductions will be gradual under an
   accelerating low-level jet. In addition, poor RH recoveries of 30%
   or less under increasing cloud cover are possible overnight leading
   into Day 2/Tuesday. A slight eastward extension of Elevated
   highlights was made across the TX Panhandle and far northwestern OK
   based on latest model guidance and surface observations.

   ..Williams.. 02/16/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper ridge will overspread the Mississippi Valley as a
   pronounced mid-level trough impinges on the Rockies today. As this
   occurs, strong surface lee troughing will encourage widespread 15+
   mph sustained southerly winds over the central and southern High
   Plains for much of the afternoon. Elevated highlights have been
   maintained over areas devoid of recent precipitation (hence dry
   fuels), and where RH will dip below 20 percent for several hours.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 161957

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0157 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
   COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
   KANSAS...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHWARD
   THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

   ...Central High Plains...
   A rapidly deepening surface low across the northern and central High
   Plains under pronounced westerly flow aloft, will support downslope
   drying and strong winds across the Central Plains Tuesday. Extremely
   Critical and particularly dangerous fire weather conditions remain
   likely across portions of northeastern CO, southwestern NE and far
   northwestern KS where sustained west winds of up to 40 mph and very
   low relative humidity as low as 10 percent align. Very dry,
   receptive fuels exist across the area with the potential for fast
   moving wildfires if ignitions occur. The Extremely Critical
   highlighted area was shifted slightly to the southeast based on
   latest short term model guidance. A broader region of Critical
   Highlights across the Central Plains was expanded eastward into
   central NE and central KS to account for critical fire weather
   conditions likely to occur as a dry cold front moves through the
   region late Tuesday.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   The arrival of a 110-120 knot mid-level jet streak into eastern NM
   and the TX Panhandle along with steady surface pressure falls in
   response of a strengthening lee surface trough across the High
   Plains will promote a broad area of elevated to critical fire
   weather conditions across the Southern High Plains Tuesday.
   Southwest winds of 25-35 mph along with RH as low as 15 percent will
   align with dry fuels to support an increasing wildfire spread
   potential. Expanded Elevated and Critical highlights farther
   eastward into central KS and western OK with the fire weather threat
   lingering into the evening hours as a dry cold front pushes through
   the region. A low-level thermal ridge stretching from central TX
   into the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK could support a narrow
   corridor of marginally lower RH Tuesday afternoon at or below 15
   percent. However, expansive mid and upper-level cloud cover as well
   as blowing dust is expected to reduce boundary layer mixing to a
   degree, which should temper overall fire weather conditions at least
   through the early afternoon hours.

   ..Williams.. 02/16/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   A pronounced mid-level trough, accompanied by a near 120 kt 500 mb
   jet streak, will overspread the central into southern High Plains
   tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting rapid surface low deepening over the
   central/northern Plains by afternoon. Combined isallobaric and
   downslope flow along the High Plains will result in a strong
   westerly surface wind field amid a drying boundary layer, atop dry
   fuels, promoting potentially dangerous conditions favorable for
   rapid wildfire spread.

   ...Central High Plains...
   By afternoon peak heating, as a surface low deepens over the central
   to northern High Plains, sustained westerly surface winds should
   strengthen to at least the 25-35 mph range as RH drops to at least
   15-20 percent over most locales, necessitating Critical highlights.
   Guidance consensus depicts a belt of 30+ mph sustained surface
   winds, with higher gusts, over northeastern Colorado into
   southwestern Nebraska, and extreme northwestern Kansas, with RH
   likely dipping to at least 15 percent. Currently, guidance suggests
   that the primary mid-level jet and accompanying cloud cover should
   pass this region to the south. As such, adequate boundary layer
   mixing should support the aforementioned surface conditions, and
   when also considering the very dry fuels in place (i.e. 90th
   percentile ERCs), the addition of Extremely Critical highlights
   appears warranted. Even if RH does not dip below 20 percent, the
   combination of such strong winds and critically dry fuels should
   compensate to support volatile wildfire-spread conditions.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   Sustained west-southwesterly surface winds in the 25-40 mph range
   should become established across much of the southern High Plains
   Tuesday afternoon as the 120 kt mid-level jet streak overspreads the
   region. Considerable cloud cover should accompany the jet streak,
   lending uncertainty to the degree of RH reductions over the southern
   High Plains. Some guidance hints at RH only dipping to 25-35 percent
   over extreme eastern New Mexico into the western Texas Panhandle.
   Even so, the strength of the anticipated surface wind field atop
   cured fuels devoid of recent precipitation alone warrants the
   introduction of at least Critical highlights. RH should drop to at
   least 20 to perhaps 15 percent along the Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma
   border, promoting high-end Critical fire weather conditions. If
   confidence increases in further RH reductions over this area,
   Extremely Critical highlights may need to be introduced in future
   outlooks.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 152154

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0354 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

   Valid 171200Z - 231200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Larger scale troughing is still expected to evolve across the
   western U.S. by Day 3/Tuesday, lasting through Day 5/Thursday before
   a more progressive wave pattern emerges late next week. Embedded
   short waves and attendant jet cores along with stronger surface lee
   cyclone development in the Plains will likely promote substantial
   fire weather concerns across portions of the central and southern
   Plains particularly on Day 3/Tuesday and Day 4/Wednesday. Longer
   term model guidance depicts a transition to a building ridge across
   the West over the weekend, with troughing promoting broader
   northwest flow and intrusion of a cooler, stable air mass east of
   the Continental Divide early next week.

   ...Day 3/Tuesday - Central and Southern Plains...
   An approaching mid-level short wave and associated 100+ knot jet
   streak arrives Day 3/Tuesday for the Southern Plains while a
   pronounced surface lee trough/cyclone strengthens across the
   northern High Plains. A broad fire weather threat is likely across
   the central and southern Plains with 70% critical probabilities
   expanded across eastern CO and western NE. A dry cold front and
   subsequent west/northwest wind shift could further impact wildfire
   spread should ignitions occur. Some uncertainty exists regarding RH
   reductions across the southern High Plains as ample subtropical
   moisture and cloud cover stream into the region from the southwest.
   Critical fire weather conditions are more probable a bit farther
   east into western OK and southern KS where additional boundary layer
   mixing and drier fuels exist.

   ...Day 4/Wednesday - Southern Plains...
   Strong westerly flow aloft and evolving surface lee troughing in the
   central High Plains should support another day of expanded fire
   weather concerns across eastern CO and Southern Plains. Poor RH
   recoveries leading into Day 4/Wednesday should further prime the
   fuelscape for wildland fire spread. Some breaks in the cloud cover
   across CO and the TX Panhandle should allow for a better mixing
   environment as surface dewpoints drop into the teens coinciding with
   breezy southwest winds. Critically low RH and stronger winds are
   more likely across far eastern NM and TX/OK Panhandles Wednesday,
   where a 70% critical area has been added.

   ...Day 5/Thursday - Southern Plains...
   An embedded short wave and mid-level jet will support a broad
   downslope drying regime across the Southern Plains on Day
   5/Thursday. Another deepening surface cyclone in the central Plains
   should promote an increasing fire weather threat farther eastern
   into northern TX and western/central OK where 40% critical
   probabilities have been expanded.

   ...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday...
   Fire weather concerns could extend into Day 6/Friday across eastern
   NM and west TX as a trailing mid-level short wave ejects into the
   Southern Plains. Uncertainty in the timing of this mid-level feature
   remains as increasing ensemble member spread reduces predictability
   of fire weather impacts at this time. A reduced fire weather threat
   is possible by the weekend as a colder more stable air mass filters
   into the eastern U.S. under northwest flow aloft.

   ..Williams.. 02/15/2026
      




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