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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 251600
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 251700Z - 261200Z
...Southwest and Southern High Plains...
The forecast remains on track with no changes to the existing
Elevated highlights. Modest westerly flow aloft and a complementary
evolving surface cyclone across northwest TX will promote dry and
breezy conditions across portions of the Southwest and southern High
Plains today. Relative humidity struggled to rise above 25%
overnight across much of southeastern NM and far west TX. A shallow
near surface inversion is quickly eroding across the region under
mostly sunny skies, allowing stronger boundary layer winds aloft to
mix down to the surface through peak heating this afternoon. West
winds of around 15 mph with brief, localized gusts of 35 mph
(particularly in the adjacent lee areas of mountain ranges), minimum
RH of 10-15% and receptive fuels will promote Elevated fire weather
conditions over south-central CO, far southeastern AZ, much of NM
and adjacent western TX through the afternoon.
..Williams.. 04/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026/
...Synopsis...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across
portions of the Southwest and the southern High Plains.
Early-morning surface observations depict dewpoints in the low to
mid teens with poor overnight RH recovery (RH values also in the
teens) across much of eastern AZ, NM, and southern CO. No
appreciable moisture recovery is anticipated for today, which will
maintain very dry conditions with RH minimums in the single digits
to low teens across the region.
Aloft, a low-amplitude upper wave will progress eastward across the
southern Rockies and into the southern Plains through peak heating.
This will promote slight deepening of a lee trough across KS/OK with
a resultant strengthening of westerly flow across the Southwest and
southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance depicts high
probability for sustained winds near 15 mph with occasional gusts
upwards of 25-30 mph possible. While localized/transient critical
conditions are possible (mainly across south-central NM and
southwest TX), most areas will likely see several hours of elevated
fire weather conditions this afternoon.
Fuels across the greater Southwest/southern High Plains region have
been slowly drying after preceding days of warm and windy
conditions. ERC values were recently estimated to be near the 85th
percentile, which is corroborated by small to moderate new fire
starts (10-100 acre fires) across NM and CO over the past 24 hours.
Consequently, fuels are sufficiently dry to support the Elevated
fire weather threat across the southern High Plains. Elevated
wind/RH conditions will likely expand as far east as northwest
TX/southwest OK, but fuel receptiveness generally declines with
eastward extent due to rainfall over the past week.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 251921
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...Southwest and Southern High Plains...
Extremely Critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop
across portions of central/eastern NM late Sunday morning into
Sunday afternoon. A mid-level short wave will shift into Southwest
through Sunday. An accompanying 60-70 knot mid-level jet stretching
from southeastern AZ into central NM and strengthening lee cyclone
across southeastern CO will aid in strong low-level southwest winds
across much of NM into portions of west TX. Minimal cloud cover
collocated with the jet core will support efficient boundary layer
mixing during the day, enabling stronger winds aloft to surface by
late morning and early afternoon. A corridor of southwest winds of
25-35 mph (localized gusts of 50-60 mph) should set up from
southwestern NM into central NM, with alignment of lower RH most
likely across central and eastern NM. Enhanced downslope drying
should yield broad 15-20% RH reductions across the southern High
Plains, with pockets of sub 10% RH emerging in far west TX. A
broader critical/elevated fire weather threat remains across much of
the Southern High Plains where southwest winds of 15-25 mph and dry
conditions will support wildfire spread potential.
Fuels remain dry and receptive across the Southern Plains and NM
where rising ERC values approaching the 90th percentile have emerged
in the presence of prevailing dry conditions. Recent and ongoing
active fires across the Southwest and Southern Plains could be
impacted by the dry and windy conditions that will evolve on Sunday.
Isolated high-based, fast moving showers and a few thunderstorms are
expected across northern NM and broader Southern Rockies region
tomorrow as the low-amplitude short wave trough progresses
east-northeastward. However, limited instability aloft, lack of an
appreciable dry sub-cloud layer and marginal fuel receptiveness at
higher elevations should limit a more widespread dry thunderstorm
threat.
..Williams.. 04/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026/
...Synopsis...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected Sunday afternoon
across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. West to
southwesterly low-level winds are forecast to strengthen in response
to a steadily deepening lee cyclone across eastern CO Sunday
afternoon and evening. Latest ensemble guidance depicts reasonably
high probability for sustained 20-25 mph winds with some
deterministic solutions suggesting winds upwards of 30 mph are
possible. The approach of a mid-level jet during the late
afternoon/early evening hours may support enhanced downward momentum
transfer through a deeply-mixed boundary layer, which could manifest
at the surface as 40-50 mph wind gusts.
Dry conditions will prevail across the southern High Plains given an
antecedent dry air mass (dewpoints were in the low teens per 06 UTC
observations), and the expectation for increasing downslope
warming/drying. Forecast consensus is that RH minimums will reach
the mid teens Sunday afternoon, but given preceding days of
single-digit RH minimums and little to no moisture recovery
expected, RH values will most likely fall into the 5-15% range
across eastern NM and western TX.
The combination of very strong winds and dry conditions will support
widespread critical conditions. Localized areas of extremely
critical conditions appear possible across eastern NM and far
western TX; however, ensemble probabilities for sustained 30+ mph
winds remain limited - likely owing to the late arrival of the
mid-level jet just past peak heating. Regardless, receptive fuels
are already in place across much of the region based on increasing
ERC values and recent fire activity, and will support the fire
weather concern.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 252126
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0426 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 031200Z
...Synopsis...
A lingering subtropical jet and lee surface troughing will continue
to bring dry and breezy conditions and resultant adverse fire
weather concerns to portions of the Southwest and Southern Plains
Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday. Upper-level troughing deepens across the
eastern U.S. by midweek, while a surface low and cold front provides
much needed rainfall for portions of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic.
Another upper-level short wave reaches the Southwest on Day
6/Thursday, while a surface low evolves ahead of this mid-level
feature across west TX. This would support widespread rainfall
across NM and much of the Southern Plains on Thursday night into Day
7/Friday morning, as low-level moisture makes marked westward
progress well into eastern NM, mitigating the fire weather threat
across the region.
...Day 3-4/Monday-Tuesday - Southwest and Southern Plains...
A fire weather threat will persist across portions of the Southwest
and Southern Plains Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday as robust, 55-65 knot
mid-level flow from the west-southwest continues over this region
early next week. Subsequent lee surface troughing in concert with
deep layer westerly winds aloft will support dry, westerly flow and
fire weather concerns across much of NM and the southern High Plains
where broad 40% probabilities were largely maintained.
At the surface, a cold front should sweep southward east of the
Continental Divide midweek. Latest forecast guidance still suggests
an improving fire weather scenario unfolding across the Southern
Plains by the Day 6-7/Thursday-Friday time frame. Widespread
rainfall is possible across much of the Southern Plains and into
portions of the Southwest ahead of an advancing upper-level trough
moving into northern Mexico Thursday night into Friday. A troughing
pattern across the eastern U.S. should similarly ameliorate, at
least temporarily, fire weather concerns for the Appalachians,
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic as a cold front and attendant
precipitation push through the region.
..Williams.. 04/25/2026
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