|
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 141628
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 141700Z - 151200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO...EASTERN
COLORADO...PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN KANSAS...AND WEST
TEXAS...
...Central and Southern High Plains and central New Mexico...
A surface cyclone will steadily deepen across the central High
Plains through tonight ahead of an approaching mid-level short wave.
This will promote a strengthening low-level westerly to
southwesterly wind response across much of central/southern High
Plains and much of central New Mexico today. Critical fire weather
highlights remain across a large portion of the plains of eastern
CO, southeast WY, southwestern NE and northwestern KS where 15-20
mph west/southwest winds and relative humidity of 10-15% will align
with dry fuels to support wildfire spread. Elevated highlights
extend eastward, encompassing much of the Central and Southern
Plains.
Poor overnight recoveries not exceeding 30% were observed along and
leeward of the CO Front Range, Sangre De Cristo Mountains and much
of central/eastern NM, preconditioning an already receptive
fuelscape in advance of dry and breezy conditions today. Critical
Highlights were nudged westward closer to the Front Range where wind
gusts of 50 mph have already occurred early this morning. Localized
Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are likely in focused
terrain gaps and favorable downslope areas along and just east of
the CO Front Range and Sangre De Cristo Mountains, where sustained
west winds of 25-35 mph with higher gusts align with relative
humidity as low as 10% at times during peak afternoon heating of a
very dry boundary layer.
...Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains...
Accelerating low-level flow in response to the rapidly deepening
cyclone across NE/KS, arrival stronger mid-level flow expanding into
the southern High Plains and at least some mid/upper level cloud
cover should impede boundary layer decoupling well into the
overnight hours across portions of the TX Panhandle and northwest
TX. Elevated surface winds of 10-20 mph combined with relative
humidity remaining below 25% and dry fuels should maintain at least
an elevated fire weather threat through tonight, possibly into the
early D2/Sunday period.
..Williams.. 03/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026/
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move out of the Pacific Northwest into the
Northern Rockies today, with strong westerly flow overspreading the
Rockies into the Central Plains. A lee cyclone is expected to
develop across eastern WY/CO and shift into Nebraska deepening
rapidly. Mass response with the deepening cyclone will result in
tightening of westerly surface gradients across the central/southern
High Plains and an extended period of Elevated to Critical (and
locally Extremely Critical) fire weather concerns.
Across the Front Range in Colorado and in the lee of the high
terrain in New Mexico, surface winds will be further enhanced in the
downslope regimes. Within these regions, relative humidity
reductions 10-15% will overlap sustained west to southwesterly winds
20-30 mph. Locally Extremely Critical fire weather conditions will
be possible in more favored downslope regions in the lee of the
Colorado Rockies, where winds may approach 40-50 mph at times.
Guidance continues to support the notion that Critical fire weather
conditions will spread further east into western Nebraska and
northwestern Kansas, where several fires are ongoing. As such a
broad Critical area was maintained from far western Texas into
western New Mexico/western Colorado to southwestern Wyoming and
eastward into western Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. Within these
regions, there will be potential for rapid fire spread with Elevated
to Critical conditions extending into the evening hours.
Broader Elevated concerns will extend into central NE/KS/OK and
southwest Texas where surface winds 10-20 mph will overlap relative
humidity reductions to around 15-25%.
|
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 141950
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS
AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
A deep surface low will shift northeastward from the Central Plains
into Great Lakes region through D2/Sunday. Strong north to northwest
winds associated with a powerful cold front in wake of the departing
low will sweep across the southern Plains Sunday and Sunday night.
Dry and breezy conditions ahead of the front will also contribute to
a broad area of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions Sunday.
...New Mexico, Western Texas and Far Southwestern Oklahoma...
Breezy west-northwest winds of 20-25 mph ahead of the southward
advancing cold front amid an enhanced downslope regime should result
in Critical fire weather conditions across eastern NM into western
TX. Relative humidity as low as 10% during peak boundary layer
mixing is expected, following poor overnight RH recoveries of 30% or
less to begin the day. Localized Extremely Critical fire weather
conditions are possible across portions of central NM along and east
of the Sandia Manzano Range under a 80-90 knot mid-level jet max at
the base of an advancing trough. The resultant enhanced downslope
regime where west-northwest winds of 30-40 mph with higher gusts
coincide with relative humidity falling to around 10% should align
with receptive fuels (ERC in the 80-90th percentile range) to
support this localized Extremely Critical threat, although
uncertainty in cloud cover precludes introduction of Extremely
Critical Highlights for this update.
As the cold front quickly dives southward into the Southern Plains,
fire weather conditions should slightly improve after the initial
northerly wind shift with rising relative humidity and cooler
temperatures. However, deteriorating fire weather conditions,
despite cooler temperatures, reemerge a few hours later as surface
dewpoints fall close to 0 F across the southern High Plains. This
will result in 15% or lower relative humidity by peak afternoon
heating amid 25-35 mph north/northwest winds. This could have a
considerable impact on active wildfires in receptive fuels should
they occur, particularly across Northwest TX where the driest
post-frontal conditions and higher winds align. The overall fire
weather threat shifts into Southern TX/Lower Rio Grande Valley
region Sunday evening, potentially lingering into the overnight
hours.
A general eastward expansion of Critical highlights was made into
northwestern TX and southwestern OK, with Elevated highlights
extended into central TX based on latest model guidance and slightly
drier conditions.
..Williams.. 03/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026/
...Synopsis...
Behind a departing low pressure system on D2/Sunday, strong
northwesterly flow will continue across the southern High Plains.
Elevated to Critical fire weather is likely to be ongoing at the
start of the period, continuing overnight from D1/Saturday.
Through the afternoon on Sunday, a cold front will shift southwards
across southern Kansas into the OK/TX Panhandles and eastern New
Mexico, bringing a shift from westerly to northerly winds which may
pose a risk with any ongoing fires. Ahead of the front, relative
humidity reductions around 10-15% will overlap sustained westerly
winds 20-25 mph. Though relative humidity may initially improve post
cold frontal passage, a secondary period of Elevated to Critical
conditions appears likely across the OK/TX Panhandles into the
afternoon/evening where relative humidity will drop near 15% again
overlapping north to northwesterly winds 20-25 mph. A large Critical
area was maintained with this outlook from central/eastern New
Mexico into Western Texas where highest confidence in Critical
conditions remains.
Broader Elevated fire weather concerns will extend into portions of
central Texas and Oklahoma, where afternoon relative humidity around
20-25% will overlap with sustained winds around 20 mph. Elevated
conditions will also extend into much of northern and western New
Mexico where fuels are expected to experience drying over the D1/D2
period.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 142150
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0450 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 221200Z
...Synopsis...
An intense mid-level trough and associated widespread precipitation
will lift out the eastern U.S. by midweek while an anomalous
upper-level ridge and corresponding hot and dry conditions evolves
across the Southwest. Dry post-frontal flow will continue to bring a
fire weather threat to far southern TX on D3/Monday, with a
subsequent dry return flow event emerging across the Southern Plains
D4/Tuesday. Abnormally high temperatures and dry conditions will aid
in drying fuels across much of the Southwest through next week.
...Day 3/Monday - Southern High Plains and Southern Texas...
Post-frontal northerly winds and low relative humidity will support
a fire weather threat across southern TX from D2/Sunday into
D3/Monday. A 40% probability was expanded northward based on latest
model guidance. A modest dry return flow event is expected to
commence across eastern NM and West TX as high pressure settles into
the MS River Valley. Breezy south winds and low daytime relative
humidity (including limited overnight recoveries from the D2/Monday
period) should support elevated fire weather concerns across
portions of eastern NM and western TX where a 40% critical
probability has been introduced.
...Day 4/Tuesday - Southern Plains...
Broad northwest flow aloft along with expanding lee surface
troughing across the central/northern Plains will promote an
expanded region of southwesterly winds across the Southern Plains on
D4/Tuesday. The dry and breezy conditions along with rebounding
temperatures should bring at least elevated fire weather conditions
to much of western TX and eastern NM, with an expansion of 40%
critical probabilities made into western OK.
...Day 5/Wednesday - Central High Plains...
Persistent northwest flow aloft and surface troughing across the
Plains should support dry and breezy downslope conditions across
southeastern WY, northeastern CO and portions of the NE Panhandle on
D5/Wednesday. The effects of light precipitation early next week
should be transient across southeastern WY and vicinity, with near
record high temperatures returning to the central High Plains by
midweek. 40% critical probabilities have been added where receptive
fuels are expected to remain.
...Days 6-8/Thursday-Saturday...
Record high temperatures across much of the West are expected under
an amplifying and highly anomalous upper-level ridge. Very dry
conditions are expected, but lighter winds should mitigate a broader
fire weather threat later next week. The primary impact will be a
potential rapid drying of fuels across the West and High Plains
regions.
..Williams.. 03/14/2026
|
|
