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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 230555
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough and its accompanying mid-level jet streak will
move into the central CONUS today. Simultaneously, a surface trough
and cold front will advance through the central Plains and Upper
Midwest. The most acute fire weather risks are centered over the
central and southern High Plains, specifically behind and ahead of
the cold front. Within this corridor, intense southwesterly winds
will switch to the northwest following the frontal passage. When
coupled with low humidity and exceptionally dry fuels, these factors
will result in Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions.
...Southern and Central Plains...
Wind speeds just off the surface are expected to intensify from
eastern NM into the TX Panhandle by this afternoon, driven by
surface cyclogenesis over southern KS and northwest OK. Given that
the dryline is forecast to remain east of the Caprock through the
morning, moisture recovery will be lackluster across eastern NM and
the western TX Panhandle. With only minimal upper level clouds today
facilitating robust vertical mixing, expect RHs down to 10% or less,
while sustained westerly winds reach 20-25 mph.
The Critical area was expanded to include portions of northeast CO
and southwest NE. At least a few hours of critical conditions are
possible in northwest 15-20 mph winds behind the front before higher
RHs move over the area late in the day. Isolated pockets of
Extremely Critical conditions remain possible within the gap-flow
corridors of southeast CO and other terrain-influenced areas
stretching from eastern CO into the western TX Panhandle. In these
localized areas, sustained winds of 30 mph will likely overlap with
single-digit RHs.
To the north, an Elevated fire weather threat will persist across
the central Plains (including the remainder of eastern CO, western
KS, and much of NE) as dry, post-frontal northwesterly winds benefit
from downslope enhancement. This threat also encompasses portions of
the High Plains where the arrival of dry post-frontal air may cause
existing wildfires or dormant lightning holdovers from Wednesday to
flare up under the sustained dry and breezy regime. Precipitation
accumulation overnight will continue to be closely monitored over
portions of eastern South Dakota where elevated wind/RH conditions
are likely, but fuels are currently expected to become unreceptive.
..Stearns/Williams.. 04/23/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 230557
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...Synopsis...
On Day 2/Friday, upper level ridging across the eastern U.S. will
begin to flatten, transitioning to a fairly zonal flow regime over
much of the southern CONUS. Meanwhile, a large-scale upper trough
will persist over the north-central U.S. along the Canadian border.
Expect very breezy and continued dry conditions through the end of
the work week over the Southwest and southern and central High
Plains.
...Southwest and Southern Plains...
The aforementioned westerly winds aloft will mix down to the surface
during peak heating, leading to strong westerly downslope flow
(sustained at 15-20 mph) and critically low RH (10-15%) that will
overlap very dry fuels on Day 2/Friday. Following several preceding
days of heightened fire weather conditions, the environment will be
further exacerbated across portions of the Southwest and southern
Plains. Winds look to be particularly strong near the Palmer Divide
in east-central CO; this area will be monitored for meeting Critical
thresholds if trends in forecast guidance continue. Increasing
clouds cover later in the day on Day 2/Friday is expected over much
of the region, which will likely work to mitigate some of the fire
weather threat before sunset.
..Stearns/Williams.. 04/23/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 222112
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0412 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 301200Z
...Synopsis...
A large scale upper trough will persist over the central U.S. and
Canada border through Day 5/Sunday. Upper ridging across the eastern
U.S. will begin to flatten on Day 3/Friday transitioning to fairly
zonal flow through the weekend. Much of the Piedmont into the
Southeast will remain fairly dry until a low-amplitude trough enters
the southwestern U.S on Day 4/Saturday and traverses the High Plains
early next week. This pattern change could bring some relief to the
central/southern Plains into portions of the Southeast Day
5/Sunday-Day 7/Tuesday. However, in areas that do not see
appreciable rainfall, fire weather concerns are expected to linger.
Towards the end of the forecast period, an additional low-amplitude
trough is forecast to move onshore the southwestern CONUS. Given the
overall pattern, fire weather conditions should persist where fuels
remain receptive.
...Day 3-5/Friday-Sunday...
As upper troughing persists across the northern U.S., strong zonal
flow over the Southwest will promote very breezy and continued dry
conditions this weekend. With preceding days of fire weather
conditions, strong westerly downslope flow and critically low RH
atop very dry fuels will further exacerbate the fire environment,
supportive of 40% Critical probabilities across portions of the
southern Plains into the Southwest on Day 3/Friday and Day
4/Saturday.
A strong mid-level disturbance is forecast to cross over the High
Plains on Day 5/Sunday, resulting in lee cyclogenesis over portions
of western KS and northwestern OK. Behind an emerging dryline,
westerly downslope flow is expected to promote very strong winds and
critically low RH overlapping a dry fuelscape. Both 40% and 70%
Critical probabilities have been maintained over the southern Plains
and parts of West TX to encompass the expansive fire weather threat.
As the upper trough shifts east across the Midwest, a dry airmass
will persist over eastern AZ into NM early next week. While a brief
reprieve in winds is forecast for the Southwest on Day 6/Monday,
breezy conditions may return in advance of an approaching secondary
upper trough. Guidance ambiguity precludes the introduction of
probabilities at this time, however, highlights may be introduced in
future outlooks as a result of the overall upper pattern.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/22/2026
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