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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 280604
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
Enhanced, zonal mid-level flow across the central/northern Rockies
will support lee troughing over portions of the High Plains today.
Farther east, surface high pressure will shift from the Midwest to
the East Coast in the wake of a mid-level trough moving across the
Northeast, with a tightened pressure gradient and strong low-level
jet developing between the surface high and lee troughing.
...Central/northern Great Plains...
The aforementioned surface pressure gradient and low-level jet
across the Great Plains will support strong southerly flow of 20-30
mph across much of the central/northern Great Plains. With dry,
receptive fuels and RH values forecast to fall to 15-20%, widespread
critical fire weather conditions are forecast from portions of the
Oklahoma Panhandle northeastward into portions of southeastern South
Dakota, southwestern Minnesota, and western Iowa. Strong 850 mb flow
of 30-40+ kts coupled with boundary layer mixing will promote
occasional gusts to 35-45 mph. Sustained southerly surface winds of
15-25 mph and reduced RH values of 20-25% will bring elevated fire
weather concerns to adjacent areas of the central/northern Great
Plains and western Corn Belt, except for portions of south-central
and southeastern Kansas that saw appreciable rainfall Thursday
evening.
...Southeast...
A dry and breezy post-frontal regime will bring widespread fire
weather concerns to much of the Southeast today, with sustained
northeasterly surface winds of 10-15 mph, low RH of 25-35%, and dry,
antecedent conditions supporting elevated fire weather concerns
across much of the region. Elevated conditions may be locally
tempered across portions of NC that saw more appreciable rainfall on
Friday. Critical conditions are expected across portions of southern
SC into southern GA and the central Florida Panhandle where a
corridor of enhanced northeasterly winds of 15-20 mph and RH values
as low as 20% are forecast.
...Central/northern High Plains...
Modest mid-level flow across the central/northern Rockies will
support a dry, downslope regime across portions of the central and
northern High Plains this afternoon. The return of above normal
temperatures coupled with sustained westerly winds of 20-25 mph amid
RH values of 10-15% will bring at least a few hours of critical fire
weather conditions to portions of southeastern Wyoming, especially
in the lee of the Laramie Mountains. Deep boundary layer mixing and
the previously mentioned mid-level flow will also support periodic
gusts of 30-35 mph across this region. Elevated fire weather
conditions are expected farther west across much of western Wyoming
and in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southeastern
Colorado where sustained winds of 15-25 mph are forecast to overlap
receptive fuels and reduced RH of 15-20%.
...Southern Great Basin and Arizona Strip...
A subtle, mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward along
the northwestern periphery of a building ridge. This feature will
support dry and breezy southwest flow across portions of the
southern Great Basin and northwestern Arizona. Southwest winds of
15-25 mph and RH values of 10-15% (locally lower) will bring
elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon amid increasingly
dry fuels.
..Chalmers.. 03/28/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 280735
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...Synopsis...
A persistent upper-level ridge will begin to slide southeastward to
the far southern Great Plains on D2/Sunday, while enhanced, zonal
flow persists across the northern Rockies. At the surface, high
pressure will move offshore of the Mid-Atlantic Coast, bringing
return flow to much of the southern Plains and Southeast. A cold
front will begin to push southward across the northern Great Plains
and Northwest.
...Portions of the central/northern High Plains...
Modest westerly, mid-level flow will persist across portions of the
central/northern Rockies on D2/Sunday, favoring a dry, downslope
regime across much of Wyoming. Westerly winds of 15-25 mph are
expected to overlap low RH values of 10-20%. With receptive fuels in
place across the region, this will bring elevated fire weather
concerns to much of southern and central Wyoming into extreme
northern Colorado and the extreme western Nebraska Panhandle.
Consideration was given to a localized area of Critical highlights
across portions of central/southeast Wyoming, but uncertainty
remains regarding a more widespread overlap of RH less than 15% and
20+ mph winds at this time. Regardless, localized critical
conditions appears possible, and trends will be monitored for the
possibility of a future upgrade.
Some high-res guidance suggests that locally elevated conditions may
occur in association with a brief period of stronger surface winds
(15-20 mph) funneling down the North Platte River Valley farther
east across western Nebraska. However, most current guidance
suggests that winds will largely remain less than 15 mph across this
region. Thus, elevated highlights were withheld at this time despite
minimum RH values forecast around 10-20%.
...Southern Great Basin...
Dry and breezy flow is forecast across portions of the southern
Great Basin Sunday afternoon ahead of a weak, mid-level shortwave
trough. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected where
southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph, very low RH of 15-20%, and
abnormally dry fuels align.
...Northeastern New Mexico...
While mid-level flow is forecast to remain rather weak across much
of the southern Rockies, a corridor of marginally enhanced westerly
flow aloft is forecast to support dry, downslope winds across
portions of northeastern New Mexico. Sustained westerly winds of
15-20 mph are forecast to overlap very low RH of 10-15% for at least
a few hours Sunday afternoon. With receptive fuels in place across
the region, this will bring elevated fire weather concerns to
portions of northeastern New Mexico.
...Southern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico...
Weak southwesterly flow aloft along the northwestern periphery of an
upper-level ridge is forecast to yield increasing mid/upper level
Pacific moisture, with PWATs forecast to range from 0.5-0.8" by
Sunday afternoon. While better moisture appears to be delayed until
later Sunday night and into Monday, latest guidance depicts the
development of weak instability (~50-150 J/kg MUCAPE) across
portions of southern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico late Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation totals are forecast to be light, with deep,
dry boundary layers and LCLs around 3 km AGL. This should support at
least some potential for isolated dry thunder atop dry, receptive
fuels.
..Chalmers.. 03/28/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 272156
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level ridge begins to slide eastward into the central U.S.
early next week while a mid-level trough moves into the Pacific
Northwest. A split jet flow emerges across the western U.S. by Day
5/Tuesday with more a more pronounced and progressive wave pattern
persisting across the northern CONUS through late next week. The
modest westerly flow aloft under the ridge and lee surface troughing
across the northern High Plains will support a fire weather threat
across WY into the NE Panhandle on Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday as strong
west winds align with dry fuels, above normal temperatures and low
relative humidity. Farther south, mid to upper-level Pacific
moisture ahead of an approaching upper trough and daytime
instability over higher terrain may support some thunderstorm
development and ignition potential across portions of AZ and NM on
Day 3-4/Sunday-Monday. Fire weather concerns shift eastward into the
Southern Plains on Day 5/Monday with the arrival of a more
pronounced short wave embedded within the weaker, southern jet
stream. Fire weather concerns should wane for the latter part of
next week across the West as another trough enters the Northwest
bringing cooler temperatures and precipitation to portions of
Intermountain West.
...Day 3-4/Sunday-Monday...
...Wyoming/Central High Plains and Southern Great Basin...
Dry and breezy conditions under deep layer westerly flow amid
abnormally warm temperatures, low RH and dry fuels should support a
fire weather threat across southern WY into the central High Plains
on Day 3/Sunday, where a 40% critical probability area remains. 40%
probabilities were also added to portions of the southern Great
Basin across far southeastern NV, southwestern UT and northwestern
AZ ahead of an embedded weak mid-level short wave where stronger
southwest winds, low RH and abnormally dry fuels align.
...Arizona and New Mexico...
The threat of dry thunderstorms has diminished particularly on
Sunday across southwestern NM and southeastern AZ based on latest
model guidance consensus, with injection of mid/upper Pacific
moisture within broader southwest flow delayed until Sunday night
into Monday. A more favorable thunderstorm environment evolves for
Monday across the Southwest, with a few lightning ignitions
possible, mainly across the higher terrain and higher fuel
landscapes of eastern AZ and western NM. Fuels are unusually dry
within a virtually snow free landscape that could be receptive to
ignitions.
...Day 5/Tuesday - Southern Plains...
Increasing west-southwesterly flow within the southern, subtropical
jet arrives into the Southwest and Southern Plains by Day 5/Tuesday
as a cold front trails southwestward into the region from a strong
surface across the Great Lakes. This will support a dry downslope
regime behind a dry line across portions of eastern NM and the TX
Panhandle. Breezy west winds, low RH and dry fuels supports at least
an elevated fire weather threat to the area, with an eventual wind
shift from a southward advancing cold front that could have further
impacts on existing or new wildfires. Thus 40% critical
probabilities remain for portions of the Southern Plains.
..Williams.. 03/27/2026
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