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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 041526
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 041700Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes were made to the previous forecast. As was previously
mentioned, rainfall over portions of Texas yesterday and last night
has dampened any fire weather threat there today. Farther west over
portions of southern New Mexico and southeastern Arizona, the
duration, coverage, and magnitude of surface wind is likely to
remain below elevated thresholds according to the latest forecast
guidance. See below for additional details.
..Stearns.. 04/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026/
...Synopsis...
A potent mid-level trough and attendant surface low will progress
northeastward across the Great Lakes region today, with upper-level
ridging building across the West. A trailing cold front will
progress east-southeastward across the Mississippi/Ohio River
Valleys and southern Texas, with high pressure building into the
Great Plains. Cooler temperatures and improving minimum RH values
are expected to preclude widespread fire weather concerns.
...Portions of the Texas Rollings Plains into southern New Mexico
and southeastern Arizona...
High resolution guidance continues to depict the potential for
locally elevated fire weather concerns from portions of the Texas
Rolling Plains into southern New Mexico/southeastern Arizona where
sustained northeasterly to easterly surface winds around 15 mph may
briefly overlap reduced RH below 20%. The best chance for locally
elevated fire weather conditions appears to be across the Lowland
Desert of southwestern New Mexico into the San Simon Valley of
southeastern Arizona where terrain effects may locally enhance
sustained winds amid low RH values of 15-20%. Uncertainty in the
duration and areal extent of winds above 15 mph precludes the
addition of Elevated highlights at this time.
Farther east across portions of the Texas Rolling Plains, recent and
ongoing precipitation is expected to limit widespread fire weather
concerns. Locally elevated conditions will be possible for areas
that did not see appreciable rainfall accumulation over the last 48
hours, however.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 040614
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will be in place across the West on D2/Sunday,
with longwave upper-level troughing across the Great
Lakes/Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will remain in place
across the central Great Plains while a cold front progresses
eastward across the East Coast and Southeast. A second cold front
will simultaneously move southward across the northern Great Plains.
...Portions of the Southern High Plains...
A tightened pressure gradient on the western periphery of the
aforementioned surface high will favor sustained 15-20 mph
south-southeasterly return flow across the southern High Plains.
With no appreciable moisture return and only limited mid/high cloud
cover expected, diurnal heating/mixing are forecast to result in RH
values dropping to 10-20% across much of southern High Plains. This
combination of winds and RH atop dry, receptive fuels should promote
elevated fire weather conditions for at least a few hours Sunday
afternoon. Trends will be monitored for a potential southward
expansion of Elevated highlights; however, uncertainty owing to
greater mid/high cloud cover and more marginal RH values precludes
such an expansion at this time.
..Chalmers.. 04/04/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 032053
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 111200Z
Upper-level ridging will be in place across the western US on Day
3/Sunday with an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes region.
Meanwhile, a significant cold front will be moving across the
Eastern Seaboard, having left accumulated precipitation across much
of the central and eastern US. An incoming trough over the Pacific
Northwest will flatten the ridge slightly on Day 5/Tuesday. This
will contribute to near-zonal flow across the southern half of the
CONUS on Day 6/Wednesday as the incoming trough moves along the
Canadian border. Also on Day 6/Wednesday, a cutoff upper-level low
approaches the central California coast, contributing to
precipitation over the southern half of the western US through Day
8/Friday as it moves inland.
...Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday...
A tightened surface pressure gradient will result in sustained
south-southwest winds of up to 20 mph over portions of the southern
High Plains. This combination of wind with RHs down to 10-15%,
supports the introduction of 40% probabilities over this area.
...Day 5/Tuesday and Day 6/Wednesday...
One area that the latest guidance leaves out of accumulating
precipitation is just east of central and southern Appalachian
Mountains. While uncertainty remains among the latest forecast
guidance, the potential for offshore flow will be possible early to
mid-next week. This area will be watched closely for potential
inclusion as the timing of northerly winds and the consistency of
preceding precipitation (especially on Day 1/Friday and Day
3/Sunday) becomes more clear.
While some potential for critical conditions will exist across
portions of the Great Basin and surrounding areas as the upper-level
ridge breaks down on Day 5/Tuesday, preceding precipitation and
resultant questionably receptive fuels will preclude any
probabilities over that area with this issuance. Another day of
tightened surface pressure gradient supports south-southwest winds
of up to 20 mph and RHs down to 10-15% over portions of the southern
High Plains again on Day 6/Wednesday. Much of this region is favored
for accumulating precipitation by late next week.
..Stearns.. 04/03/2026
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