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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 011628

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1128 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026

   Valid 011700Z - 021200Z

   ...Morning Update...
   The previous forecast remains on track. Mostly clear skies across
   the FL Peninsula this morning will promote sufficient boundary layer
   mixing into a drier airmass aloft. However, mid/high cloud cover is
   expected to expand over the region as a digging northern stream
   trough increases moisture aloft later this afternoon. Inland RH
   values are expected to drop to 30-35 percent at peak heating while
   westerly winds hover around 10 mph (gusts up to 15 mph) atop drought
   stressed fuels, supportive of Elevated fire weather conditions.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/01/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Broad mid-level troughing, with multiple embedded perturbations
   should gradually deepen over the eastern US today as ridging builds
   across the Great Basin. West of the ridge, a closed low will develop
   offshore and slowly move inland over the Pacific Northwest. Strong
   westerly flow is expected over much of the Gulf Coast and eastern US
   as a frontal boundary slowly sags southward. Widespread
   precipitation is forecast along and north of the front which should
   greatly limit fire-weather potential outside of FL.

   ...FL...
   South of the slow-moving front across the Gulf Coast and northern
   FL, enhanced westerly flow is expected over the central and eastern
   Peninsula this afternoon. While not overly strong (10-15 mph gusts),
   the breezy conditions should develop beneath clear skies, a
   relatively dry air mass with RH values of 30-35% and surface
   temperatures near 90F. Widespread receptive fuels (ERCs in the
   90-97th percentiles) will support elevated fire weather conditions.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 011931

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0231 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026

   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...Afternoon Update...
   Recent guidance has trended towards a more accelerated cold frontal
   progression across the northern Plains on Saturday afternoon,
   resulting in minor adjustments to the Elevated risk area. While the
   cold front will be dry, increasing cloud cover along and behind the
   front will allow RH to remain somewhat marginal between 25-35
   percent in southeastern MT and south-central ND. In far northeastern
   WY and northwestern SD, a much drier airmass will exist for a few
   hours ahead of the front, with RH between 10-20 percent before
   rising as the front passes. However, the driest air and stronger
   winds do not overlap, precluding the introduction of critical
   highlights at this time. Very strong northerly winds of 15-25 mph
   (gusts up to 30 mph) are likely for several hours following the
   frontal passage, supportive of Elevated fire weather conditions. 

   In FL, Elevated highlights have been expanded slightly to account
   for a broader region of sustained west-southwest winds of 10-15 mph
   and RH of less than 35 percent. An eastward progressing shortwave
   will phase with an amplifying upper trough over the Eastern
   Seaboard, cultivating an elongated surface low to develop east of
   the Carolinas coastline. A strong 30-50 kt 700-850 mb jet is
   expected to develop over central FL in the wake of the departing
   low, yet expansive high cloud cover and increasing mid/low clouds
   along the incoming front may prevent deeper mixing. However, in
   sporadic areas that experience partly cloudy skies, wind gusts of up
   to 30 mph across central FL could mix down to the surface,
   exacerbating any new/existing fires. Wetting rainfall behind the
   frontal passage should provide relief to the fire environment into
   the overnight hours.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/01/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Mid-level troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern US
   Saturday as southwesterly flow aloft also strengthens. This will
   drive a cold front into the Gulf, though gusty winds and dry
   conditions are expected ahead of it over parts of FL. To the west of
   the upper trough, northwesterly flow will persist over the Plains
   ahead of a ridge over the Great Basin. A dry cold front will move
   southward across the northern Plains supporting dry and breezy
   conditions into parts of the Dakotas/MT.

   ...FL...
   Another day of dry and breezy conditions is expected for portions of
   central and southern FL. Surface winds should be somewhat stronger
   than Friday as the upper trough over the eastern US deepens and flow
   aloft increases. Surface gusts of 10-20 mph are possible amid RH
   below 35%. Area fuels remain quite dry with little recent rainfall
   and ERC values above the 95th percentile. Fire-weather concerns
   should end with the frontal passage and some light rainfall possible
   into the evening and overnight.

   ...Northern Plains...
   On the backside of the broader eastern US trough, a subtle shortwave
   will support a weak surface cyclone along a cold front moving out
   southern Canada. Gusty northwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected
   with the front. With little surface moisture in place, afternoon RH
   values below 20% are likely. Combined with dry fuels, the dry/breezy
   conditions will likely support a few hours of elevated fire weather
   concerns across southwestern ND, northwestern SD and southeastern
   MT, where recent rainfall has been minimal and fuels remain dry.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 012137

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0437 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026

   Valid 031200Z - 091200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   An amplifying upper trough across the eastern U.S. and deepening
   surface low near the Carolina Coast will send a cold front and
   associated rainfall southeastward over the weekend. This will
   provide a temporary fire weather reprieve not only to Florida but to
   much of the Southeast and portions of the Mid Atlantic where fuels
   have been exceptionally dry. A deepening surface low traversing
   south-central Canada should bring stronger west-northwest winds and
   low RH to portions of the northern Plains on Day 3/Sunday. Dry and
   breezy conditions return to the Southwest Day 3/Sunday and Southern
   High Plains Day 4-5/Monday-Tuesday as upper-level troughing
   gradually shifts into the region.

   ...Days 3-5/Sunday-Tuesday...
   ...Northern Plains...
   Beneath an upper level shortwave trough, a surface low will begin to
   deepen on Day 3/Sunday as it traverses south-central Canada. Surface
   pressure gradients should tighten across much of the northern
   Plains, promoting dry and breezy conditions ahead of a southward
   progressing cold front and increasing cloud cover. 40% Critical
   probabilities have been introduced to account for these conditions
   amid very dry fuels.

   ...Southern Plains...
   Increasing southwesterly flow aloft should overspread the Southwest
   and Southern Plains as a lee surface trough develops across the
   southern Plains early next week. This will support dry and breezy
   conditions across the Southwest on Day 3/Sunday, with downslope
   drying and enhanced winds evolving in the southern High Plains Day
   4/Monday and Day 5/Tuesday. Preceding widespread rainfall in
   addition to ongoing green up across the region should limit the
   impact of an otherwise enhanced fire weather concern across portions
   of the southern Plains and Southwest. However, in areas that did not
   receive appreciable rainfall, fire weather concerns will reemerge
   for east-central NM into parts of the TX Panhandle on Day 4/Monday
   where 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Dry and
   breezy conditions continue on Day 5/Tuesday for the southern Plains
   as the upper trough moves overhead and a surface low develops over
   Oklahoma. A cold front will traverse the region during the
   morning/afternoon, though guidance ambiguity in timing of the front
   arrival precludes the introduction of critical probabilities at this
   time.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/01/2026
      




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