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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 011630
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026
Valid 011700Z - 021200Z
...17z Update...
The Elevated fire weather risk area was trimmed back slightly in the
northern TX Panhandle to account for widespread cloud cover and
subsequent higher afternoon RH. Farther south, cloud cover is less
expansive in southeastern NM where RH is already falling to 20
percent RH. As southwesterly winds increase to 20-30 mph (gusts 40+
mph) this afternoon amid near 90th percentile ERCs, locally critical
fire weather conditions are possible within the dry fuelscape. See
the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states today, with a
surface low expected to develop in Kansas by afternoon. Gradient
flow due to surface low intensification, along with some downslope
component of flow, will foster windy and modestly dry conditions
across the southern High Plains. The latest guidance consensus shows
widespread west-southwesterly surface winds exceeding 20 mph amid 20
percent RH across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, warranting
Elevated highlights. Widespread clouds and potential showers will
hinder widespread Critical conditions, though locally Critical
conditions are possible.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 011853
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WESTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS....
...Afternoon Update...
Critical fire weather highlights have been maintained where strong
southwesterly winds sustained at 20+ mph will align with 10-15
percent RH atop dry fuels. Farther south, within the lee of the NM
Guadalupe Mountains, guidance is indicating a couple of afternoon
hours of sustained winds greater than 20 mph and RH of 10-15
percent. However, given the narrow window of time and increasing
coverage of high clouds throughout the day, critical highlights have
been withheld for now. See the previous discussion for more
information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026/
...Synopsis...
A second mid-level trough will impinge on the central Rockies
tomorrow (Thursday), resulting the development of another surface
low over the central Plains. Both gradient and downslope flow will
promote dry and windy conditions supportive of wildfire spread
across portions of the central and southern High Plains. By
afternoon peak heating, widespread 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly
surface winds will overlap with 15 percent RH for several hours,
warranting Elevated highlights across the central and southern High
Plains. Critical highlights have been introduced where guidance
consensus depicts the highest likelihood of 20+ mph sustained winds
overlapping very dry fuels.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 012117
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0417 PM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 091200Z
...Synopsis...
A progressive large scale mid/upper trough will traverse the Great
Plains on D3/Friday and shift northeast, bringing cooler
temperatures, higher elevation snow, and much needed rain to parts
of northern Rockies and northern High Plains. This should reduce
broader fire weather concerns across portions of the High Plains
into the Midwest. However, fire weather concerns will remain for
areas that do not see appreciable rainfall on Day 2/Thursday and Day
3/Friday in the central and southern High Plains. An upper ridge
builds back across the western U.S. thereafter, bringing warm and
dry weather through the remainder of the forecast period.
...Day 3/Friday - Southern High Plains and West Texas...
A cold front associated with an emerging surface low will progress
southward across the central and southern High Plains on Day
3/Friday. Tightening surface pressure gradients in the lee of the
Sangre de Critso and Sandia Manzano Mountains of NM will promote
strong downslope westerly winds of 15-20 mph with coincident RH of
10-15 percent ahead of the dry cold front. The aforementioned front
will pass through the TX Panhandle and eastern NM in the late
afternoon, bringing sustained northerly winds of 20+ mph, while only
increasing RH to 20-30 percent. These weather conditions should be
monitored closely with any new ignitions or ongoing wildfires, as it
could be problematic for fire spread. However, increasing high cloud
cover throughout the day may alleviate some fire concerns.
Additionally, dry and breezy conditions return to far southern NV
and the Low/High Desert of CA on Day 3/Friday. Sustained northerly
winds of 20-30 mph and 10-15 percent RH could promote localized
wildfire spread potential.
Upper ridging builds back in this weekend across the western U.S.,
persisting through early next week. Given the overall pattern,
locally elevated fire weather conditions may arise as dry conditions
prevail across parts of the central and southern High Plains.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/01/2026
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