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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 241630
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026
Valid 241700Z - 251200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...
...Morning Update...
No changes were made to the previous forecast. Elevated and Critical
fire weather conditions are still expected this afternoon as a
surface low emerges in the lee of the southern Rockies, promoting
strong westerly to southwesterly downslope winds and decreasing RH
atop a dry fuelscape. The OUN sounding this morning features a 45-50
kt jet just above the surface, and nearby observations across OK,
northwest AR, and southwestern MO are already portraying gusty winds
of 30-40 mph mixing down to the surface. Passing high clouds are
present and will remain spotty this afternoon, though these likely
won't constrict fire weather concerns across the broader area.
Please see the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Barnes.. 02/24/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026/
...Synopsis...
...Southeast Colorado into southern High Plains vicinity...
Stronger mid-level flow across much of the central and parts of the
southern Rockies will promote a deepening lee trough during the
afternoon and evening today. A moderately strong pressure gradient
across the terrain will drive 20-25 mph (locally higher) downslope
winds across these regions. RH during the afternoon will fall to
near 10% in some locations with around 15% being more common.
Continued lack of precipitation and dry fuels will support Critical
fire weather in the lee of the terrain and as far east as the Texas
South Plains. Farther south into the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend, lighter
winds (15-20 mph) are expected, though locally stronger winds may
occur within the Davis Mountains. Here, elevated fire weather
concerns are expected.
...Northwest Texas...Oklahoma...Ozarks...
Ahead of a surface cold front, southerly/southwesterly winds will
increase to 15-20 mph. Winds within the lowest 2 km will also be
strong and lead to gusty winds (up to around 35 mph). RH of 20-30%
is possible by the afternoon. There is some uncertainty as to how
low RH will fall given the expected mid/high level cloud cover
increasing through the day. Even so, dry fine fuels will support an
Elevated fire weather threat.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 241908
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...
...20z Update...
Elevated and Critical fire weather highlights have been maintained
from the previous forecast. A tight pressure gradient in the lee of
the Rockies beneath northwesterly mid-level flow will promote strong
downslope winds atop a dry fuelscape. High-level cloud cover is
likely throughout the day, and surface dewpoints may rise some owing
to mid-level moisture infiltrating the area. However, given a narrow
corridor of 20-30 mph westerly surface winds (gusts up to 45 mph),
RH values hovering around 15%, and a prolonged period of hot, dry,
windy conditions, localized Critical fire weather remains likely for
southeastern NM. See the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Barnes.. 02/24/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026/
...Synopsis...
...Central/southern High Plains...
Moderately strong northwesterly mid-level winds will be maintained
across the central and southern Rockies on Wednesday. Lee troughing
will extend across much of the central/southern High Plains. Dry
downslope winds of 20-30 mph appear possible in portions of
east-central and southeast New Mexico as stronger upper-level winds
nudge farther south and align with the peak of the cross-terrain
surface gradient. With at least some connection to the mid-level
moisture plume on the West Coast, high-level cloud cover and a
modest increase in surface dewpoints are possible. Guidance is not
overly confident in RH lower than 15% for more than a short period.
However, the enhanced winds at the surface will still drive a period
of Critical fire weather during the afternoon.
Elsewhere within the High Plains, RH of around 20% should be more
common. While 15-20 mph will occur in most locations,
terrain-favored areas could see speeds of 20-25 mph.
...Edwards Plateau into parts of central Texas...
As a modest surface low evolves south and east during the day, winds
of 15-20 mph will be possible. During the afternoon RH of around
15-20% can be expected. Lack of stronger winds will preclude a
greater fire weather risk, but Elevated fire weather is probable.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 242144
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 041200Z
...Synopsis...
Mid-level flow will remain amplified over CONUS through nearly all
of the extended forecast period before an upper-level pattern change
early next week. The current pattern will prevail through Day
6/Sunday, aiding in continued Elevated fire weather conditions in
the Central and Southern Plains. Day 7/Monday - Day 8/Tuesday, a
transition to southwesterly flow aloft in the Southwest and Southern
Plains will evolve as a closed low develops off the western US
coast. Surface troughing and enhanced southerly surface flow may
bring modest Gulf moisture to the Plains region, limiting broader
fire weather concerns in the extended forecast period.
...Day 3/Thursday - South Central Texas...
As the surface low continues to shift south towards the Texas Gulf
Coast, a weak dry cold front will push into South Central Texas
through the afternoon bringing dry and breezy northerly surface
winds of 15-20 mph. With daytime RH values of 15-20%, and above
normal surface temperatures across the area on Day 2/Wednesday,
finer fuels will likely have dried out leading to potential
receptiveness to fire. 40% Critical probabilities have been
maintained.
Beneath strong mid-level flow, tight surface pressure gradients
across central Wyoming may support strong downslope winds and low RH
in the lee of the Laramie Range into far western Nebraska on Day
3/Thursday and Day 4/Friday. However, with the potential for light
precipitation across the area on Day 2/Wednesday, and model
uncertainties in overlap of stronger winds and low RH, fire weather
highlights have been withheld for now.
On Day 5/Saturday, mid-level flow slowly shifts zonal as surface
troughing pushes cooler air into the Central US while southerly flow
along the TX Gulf Coast advects moisture northward into the Southern
Plains. Some model spread exists past Day 6/Sunday in the extent of
surface moisture return, though given the agreement in the overall
resulting pattern, fire weather concerns appear fairly minimal and
localized through the extended forecast period.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Barnes.. 02/24/2026
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