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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 220715
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...Synopsis...
In the midst of a dry and breezy post-frontal airmass across much of
the Southeast/Gulf Coast, Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather
conditions are anticipated this afternoon across portions of Texas,
southeastern Louisiana/southern Mississippi, and much of the Florida
peninsula. While the meteorological conditions affect a much larger
area than the present highlights, recent wetting rainfall owing to
the aforementioned front will serve to temper fire-weather concerns
elsewhere.
...Mississippi/Louisiana...
While there is some ensemble spread in the range of expected
relative humidity values across southeastern Louisiana into far
southern Mississippi, meteorological conditions will support
Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions owing to dry
and breezy offshore flow. Fuels in the area are very dry, and there
has been little in the way of recent wetting rainfall. The highest
likelihood for Critical conditions appears to be in far southeastern
Mississippi/Louisiana, where winds could reach 15-20 MPH. However,
uncertainty in the duration and magnitude of those winds precludes
additional highlights at this time.
...Southeast/Florida Peninsula...
Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather concerns are forecast this
afternoon across much of the Florida Peninsula. Though relative
humidity could be as low as 25%, with winds of around 15 MPH out of
the north-northwest, rainfall during the early morning hours should
serve to temper fuels. Given the precipitation and seemingly
localized nature of Critical conditions, additional highlights were
withheld (though considered).
...Far Southern Texas...
Relative humidity as low as 10-15% and winds around 15 MPH will
support Elevated fire-weather concerns across far southern Texas.
There has been little in the way of recent wetting rainfall, with
fuels guidance (ERCs) suggesting fuels are more than receptive to
wildfire ignition.
..Halbert.. 02/22/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 220716
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
...Synopsis...
Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast for much of the
Florida peninsula on Monday owing to a dry and breezy post-frontal
airmass overlapping drought-stricken fuels. Further west, dry and
breezy southerly flow in far eastern New Mexico into the
Texas/Oklahoma panhandles will support Elevated fire-weather
conditions.
...Florida Peninsula/Southern Georgia...
Relative humidity as low as 20%-25% (with poor overnight RH
recovery) and winds of 15-20 MPH out of the northwest will overlap
with drought-stricken fuels across much of the Florida peninsula on
Monday. This will result in widespread Critical fire-weather
conditions, particularly in central/southern Florida.
...Eastern New Mexico/Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles...
Dry and breezy southerly/southwesterly flow will develop across much
of eastern New Mexico into the TX/OK Panhandles on Monday afternoon.
Relative humidity as low as 10-15% and winds of 15-20 MPH are
forecast to overlap with previously cured fuels, supporting at least
Elevated fire-weather concerns.
..Halbert.. 02/22/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 212048
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 231200Z - 011200Z
An active fire weather pattern is expected across portions of the
Florida Peninsula and the Southern/Central Plains through much of
the extended forecast period. For Day 3/Monday, a mid/upper-level
ridge is forecast over the Southwest with a mid/upper-level trough
over the Southeast. Thereafter, the Southwest ridge is forecast to
flatten while broad troughing (and enhanced mid-level flow) develops
across much of the CONUS. At the surface, portions of Florida will
remain in a very dry post-frontal regime Day 3/Monday while episodic
lee surface trough strengthening occurs across the Central Plains
Day 3/Monday through at least Day 8/Saturday.
...Day 3/Monday: Florida Peninsula and Southern Georgia...
Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are probable early
Day 3/Monday morning across portions of the Florida Peninsula due to
very poor overnight RH recoveries and lingering post-frontal
breeziness. Although daytime temperatures will be relatively cool
behind the front, critical conditions appear likely across portions
of the Florida Peninsula (where 70% probabilities for Critical fire
weather conditions have been introduced) due to the combination of
low-to-extremely-low minimum RH values, strong northerly
post-frontal winds, and receptive fuels owing to ongoing drought
conditions.
...Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday: Southern/Central Plains...
Relatively dry southerly/southwesterly return flow is forecast to
increase across the southern Plains Day 3/Monday as lee troughing
strengthens, which should promote Elevated fire weather conditions
across portions of eastern New Mexico, the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandles, and far western Oklahoma.
Fire weather conditions are forecast to become more widespread Day
4/Tuesday across the southern Plains as strong mid-level flow
remains in place and the lee surface cyclone and associated pressure
gradient strengthens further while developing southward. While
critical fire weather conditions are most likely behind the dry line
across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle where
strong downslope flow is expected, confidence is currently too low
to introduce 70% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions.
Additionally, 40% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions
were expanded into portions of Oklahoma based on the latest ensemble
guidance, where a dry return flow regime is forecast.
Confidence is a bit lower Day 4/Tuesday across the Central Plains,
with ensemble guidance offering differing solutions for the
evolution of a developing surface cyclone in the lee of the Laramie
Range. While critical probabilities were not introduced with this
outlook, fire weather conditions are possible depending on the
evolution/strength of the cyclone.
Run-to-run model variability has increased somewhat for Day
5/Wednesday, with impactful differences in the strength and
positioning of the surface low through the day over the Southern
Plains. In turn, this decreases confidence in critical fire weather
highlights across the area. Nevertheless, the 40% probability for
Critical fire weather conditions was maintained as at least elevated
fire weather conditions appear likely across much of the area.
...Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday: Southern/Central Plains...
Ensemble model spread begins to increase Day 6/Thursday and into the
next weekend, which precludes introduction of Critical probabilities
beyond Day 5/Wednesday. Nonetheless, the mid/upper-level pattern
continues to favor broad troughing across the CONUS, with enhanced
mid-level flow and multiple short-wave impulses crossing the central
United States. This flow pattern coupled with ongoing drought
conditions (and little-to-no forecast rainfall) suggest fire weather
conditions will likely linger across portions of the plains through
at least Day 8/Saturday.
..Elliott.. 02/21/2026
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