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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 200550
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...Synopsis...
The remnants of a significant mid-level trough will remain over the
western CONUS today. Given the colder weather and precipitation
across some areas of the CONUS, the Southwest will be the region of
primary concern today. However, by mid-afternoon today, 500 mb winds
will struggle to reach 40 mph over much of the Southwest. Meanwhile,
northwest mid-level flow continues over the Pacific Northwest while
the jet max formerly over the southern Plains continues to progress
eastward with a cold front surging offshore of the eastern US.
...Southwest...
Near-normal surface temperatures for this time of year and a
well-mixed boundary layer in place over the Southwest will
contribute to south/southwesterly surface winds of 10-20 mph and
minimum RHs of 10-20%. These weather conditions in place over
receptive fuels (ERCs hovering around 80-90th percentile) will yield
Elevated, with some locally critical, fire weather conditions today
from around 10 AM local time to around sunset.
..Stearns.. 05/20/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 200551
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
On Day 2/Thursday, a shortwave trough and associated mid-level jet
streak will transit through the Intermountain West. There is some
uncertainty given trends in the recent forecast guidance as to how
far south this feature will dig and the timing of when it will
progress over the central/southern Rockies. A cold front will
continue to progress south/eastward over the Eastern Seaboard.
...Southwest...
Conditions on Day 2/Thursday will be somewhat similar to Day
1/Wednesday with southwesterly surface winds of 10-20 mph and brief
afternoon RHs of 10-20%. Given the uncertainty associated with the
aforementioned shortwave trough, marginally elevated conditions
outside of a synoptically-supported fire weather environment, and
more sparsely continuous fuels, no highlighted areas were introduced
with this forecast issuance.
...Maine...
One location that will miss out on much of any accumulating
precipitation with the aforementioned cold front passage is the
northeastern corner of the CONUS. With this offshore flow (sustained
winds of 10-15 mph) in place at the surface, RHs will also dip down
near 25-35% behind the front on Day 2/Thursday. Additionally, heavy
dead fuels will remain near the 80-90th percentile. However, well
established green up at this point will preclude any highlighted
areas.
..Stearns.. 05/20/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 192124
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0424 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 271200Z
A shortwave trough and associated mid-level jet streak located over
the Intermountain West on Day 3/Thursday will gradually drift across
the High Plains and Upper Midwest Day 4/Friday before entering
south-central Canada this weekend. Longwave ridging will build
across the West on Day 5/Saturday, sliding towards the Central U.S.
as extended guidance introduces the potential for a robust upper
trough to enter the Pacific Northwest early next week. An Atlantic
ridge over the Eastern Seaboard is likely to persist through the
forecast period, with multiple rounds of mid-level perturbations
promoting repeat opportunities for precipitation. The overall upper
pattern suggests dampened fire weather conditions on a broader scale
through the forecast period, with the exception of localized breezy
conditions across parts of the West.
With minimal to no rainfall forecast across the Intermountain West
and portions of the Desert Southwest through early next week, and a
subsequent warming/drying trend beneath the upper ridge, fire
weather concerns may emerge where drying fuels and locally enhanced
winds align.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/19/2026
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