ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 081920

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0120 PM CST Thu Jan 08 2026

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   The Elevated area was expanded in the Big Bend and into northwest
   Texas, while it was adjusted from Del Rio to Laredo into the western
   Hill Country based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance.
   West-northwest sustained winds of 15-25 mph and minimum RH of 15-25%
   are likely from the Big Bend into northwest Texas and the western
   Hill Country during the afternoon and early evening. Winds will
   shift to north-northwest as another cold front drops south across
   Texas during the evening and overnight. Locally elevated to elevated
   conditions are expected in the evening across the western Hill
   Country/vicinity and shifting southwards into portions of south
   Texas overnight, mostly focused closer to the Rio Grande.

   Gusty and dry north-northeast winds are expected again across
   southern California, but recent precipitation has left fuel moisture
   above normal and well above critical thresholds.

   ..Nauslar.. 01/08/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level trough will gradually traverse the central CONUS today,
   supporting the development of a weak surface low over the Sabine
   River Valley, with a surface cold front sweeping across the southern
   Plains tomorrow (Friday). To the west of the aforementioned low and
   ahead of the surface cold front, dry downslope flow is expected
   across much of western Texas Friday afternoon for at least a few
   hours. 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds will overlap with
   15-20 percent RH. Elevated highlights have been added to account for
   these conditions. There are questions regarding how appreciable
   rainfall accumulations will be in west-central Texas, where Elevated
   highlights may need adjustments in future outlooks.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 072120

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0320 PM CST Wed Jan 07 2026

   Valid 091200Z - 151200Z

   A longwave trough will begin to progress out of the western US on
   D2/Thursday, with a surface low developing across the Oklahoma/Texas
   Panhandles into western Kansas. Widespread rain/thunderstorm
   activity can be expected across some portions of the central/eastern
   Southern Plains into the Mississippi/Missouri River Valley. Less
   precipitation is likely across portions of western Texas, where fire
   concerns are possible D3/Friday.

   ...D3/Friday - Southwestern/West-Central Texas...
   Model guidance has been consistent in forecasting a steep gradient
   in precipitation amounts across the Southern Plains but has wavered
   on overall amounts and exactly where this will be. Confidence is
   moderate that portions of western Texas into western Oklahoma will
   receive little to no precipitation. Latest fuels guidance suggests
   grass loading is high with freeze cured grasses present and ERCs
   around the 80th percentile within these regions. Strong and dry post
   frontal northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains behind the
   departing low on D3/Friday. Relative humidity reductions to 15-20
   percent are expected to overlap sustained northwesterly flow around
   20 mph across portions of north-central and southwestern Texas. A 40
   percent area was maintained with this outlook, given some continued
   uncertainty in where the gradient of higher precipitation will be.
   Another factor would be the duration of any Critical conditions as
   relative humidity increases with colder air coming in behind the
   departing cold front. Depending on how much precipitation occurs, a
   Critical area may be warranted for the upcoming transition from D3
   to D2. 

   Beyond D3/Friday, the trough will progress eastward, with heights
   rising across the Southern Plains. The front will have ushered
   moisture largely offshore, with dry conditions remaining across much
   of the Southern Plains. A few localized areas of breezy/dry
   conditions will be possible D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday before lighter
   winds return.

   ..Thornton/Elizalde-Garcia.. 01/07/2026