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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 090715
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN
WYOMING INTO FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...
...Synopsis...
Broad upper ridging will overspread the central and eastern CONUS
today, with a pronounced mid-level impulse poised to crest the ridge
over the central Plains. An elongated surface low will form over the
central Plains, with dry northwesterly flow overspreading parts of
the central Plains within a post-cold frontal regime, and dry
downslope flow occurring ahead of a surface trough over the southern
High Plains. Over both areas, the dry and windy surface conditions
will foster wildfire-spread potential.
...Central High Plains...
Guidance differs somewhat regarding how dry the surface airmass will
become by afternoon peak heating behind the cold front over the
central High Plains. Nonetheless, RH may dip as low as 15-20 percent
amid 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds, atop drying
fuels. Even if RH does not reach Critical thresholds, the stronger
post-cold frontal winds atop dry fuels should compensate to support
wildfire spread.
...Southern High Plains...
By afternoon peak heating, dry downslope flow, in combination with a
very deep and dry boundary layer, will support RH dipping into the
10-15 percent range as sustained west-southwesterly surface winds
exceed 20 mph for several hours. The current guidance consensus
still depicts the best corridor for Critical conditions over
northeastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and
immediate surrounding areas. Given guidance consistency in such
conditions and continued drying fuels, Critical highlights have been
maintained.
..Squitieri.. 02/09/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 081917
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS....
...19z Update...
Widespread elevated and a few hours of critical fire-weather
conditions are likely Monday afternoon across portions of the
southern High Plains. Downslope winds of 20-25 mph are expected
during the afternoon. Stronger gusts to 30 mph are also possible
from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle and western OK. At the same
time, low RH below 20% is expected for a few hours during the
afternoon. Given little recent rainfall, some dry fuels are present
and will likely support fire-weather concerns Monday.
Across the central High Plains, more transient surface winds and the
arrival of the cold front during the afternoon will limit the
duration of elevated fire-weather potential across CO/NE/WY.
However, dry fuels and the overlap of gusty winds and low humidity
should still be sufficient for a few hours of elevated concerns. See
the prior discussion for more information.
..Lyons.. 02/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will overspread the Great Lakes as another upper
trough impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). The
progression of the northern U.S. trough will encourage surface low
development over the central Plains Monday afternoon, with dry
downslope flow over portions of the High Plains. Widespread Elevated
conditions are expected across parts of the central High Plains into
Nebraska immediately behind a surface cold front accompanying the
aforementioned surface low. 15-20 mph sustained west-northwesterly
surface winds will overlap with 20-25 percent RH atop dry fuels for
at least a few hours.
Farther south across the southern High Plains, dry downslope flow
will be stronger compared to points farther north. By afternoon peak
heating, southwesterly surface winds may sustain over 25 mph amid
10-15 percent RH, warranting Critical highlights given dry fuels.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 082155
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 161200Z
Active mid-level flow will continue to intensify this week as
troughing gradually deepens over the West. Episodic troughing will
overspread the Southwest and Plains through midweek. Gusty downslope
winds are possible in the lee of the Rockies and southern Plains.
This will continue into next weekend when more substantial troughing
appears likely to emerge over the central US. While fire-weather
conditions will remaining localize initially, the increase in
westerly flow overlapped with unusually warm/dry conditions should
increase fire-weather concerns later in the forecast cycle.
...Southwest and Plains...
A southern stream shortwave trough will move from the southern
Rockies and over the Southwest and far southern Plains D3/Tuesday
and D4/Wednesday. This trough will support a weak lee low bolstering
some gusty westerly winds over parts of eastern NM and west TX ahead
of a weak cold front. Some localized fire-weather concerns are
possible given dry fuels and above normal temperature, though the
area extent is uncertain.
More substantial troughing is expected to develop later into the
week and into next weekend as strong flow aloft continues to move
southward. Lee troughing will increase westerly surface winds across
parts of the High Plains D5/Thursday potentially supporting some
potential for more active fire-weather conditions. However, ensemble
spread increases substantially. Additionally, the increase in
troughing will coincide with the potential for precipitation. Given
this uncertainty, no probabilities will be drawn for now despite the
expectation of a general increase in fire-weather potential next
week.
..Lyons.. 02/08/2026
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