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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 270732
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...Synopsis...
Mid-level ridging will remain in place across the western CONUS with
northwesterly mid-level flow downstream of this feature. This will
support another day of dry, downslope flow in the lee of the Rockies
ahead of a southward surging cold front.
...Portions of eastern Wyoming into northeastern Colorado and the
Nebraska Panhandle...
Strong northwesterly flow in the mid-levels will lead to the
enhancement of lee troughing across the central and northern High
Plains as high pressure builds to the West. This will support a
strong cross-terrain pressure gradient that will yield dry downslope
flow in the lee of the central Rockies and Laramie Range, with
sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph and isolated gusts of 35-45 mph
expected (locally higher in terrain-favored areas). Deep, boundary
layer mixing coupled with the dry downslope flow will simultaneously
favor afternoon RH values falling into the 15-20% range (locally as
low as 10%). With multiple days of strong, dry downslope winds
preceding D1/Friday, fuels are expected to be receptive to fire.
Given these factors, elevated to locally critical fire weather
conditions are likely for at least a few hours across portions of
eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle and southward toward the
Palmer Divide this afternoon.
...Portions of central into east-central New Mexico...
Lower RH values of 10-15% are likely to extend farther south into
portions of southeastern New Mexico and western Texas; however,
winds are expected to remain light. The one exception will be across
portions of central into east-central New Mexico where a band of
modest northwesterly mid-level flow will support dry, downslope
winds in the lee of the Sandia Manzano Mountains. Sustained westerly
surface winds of 15-20 mph are expected to overlap very low RH
values of 10-20% for at least a few hours this afternoon. Given
warm, dry antecedent conditions, this overlap is expected to support
Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon.
...Northern Plains into the Midwest...
A southward advancing surface cold front will promote a strong
surface pressure gradient across portions of the northern Plains
into the western Corn Belt this afternoon. Widespread 20-30 mph
sustained northwesterly surface winds ahead of this front are
expected to overlap RH values of 20-30%. Farther south and east,
lighter southwesterly winds of 10-20 mph are expected to overlap RH
of 20-30% ahead of a surface pressure trough from southwestern
Missouri into western Illinois. Given that fuels are expected to be
only modestly receptive across the region, Elevated fire weather
concerns should remain localized.
..Chalmers/Lyons.. 02/27/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 270735
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026
Valid 281200Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Longwave mid-level troughing centered over eastern Canada will
gradually shift eastward through Day 2/Saturday, yielding weakening
flow aloft across much of the central/northern High Plains
downstream of mid-level ridging across the Southwest. Meanwhile, a
surface cold front will surge southward across the central Great
Plains.
...Portions of southeastern Wyoming...
Continuing northwesterly flow across the central/northern Rockies
will support another day of dry, downslope flow in the lee of the
Laramie Range. Compared to prior days, however, weakening mid-level
flow will support only a localized area of stronger sustained
surface winds of 15-25 mph (locally higher in terrain favored
areas). Meanwhile, RH values are not expected to drop quite as low
as previous days, with most guidance depicting min RH values of
15-25% for only a brief period of time. Given the weakening
upper-level support and expectation for only a localized corridor of
higher sustained surface winds to briefly overlap low RH values,
elevated fire weather conditions are likely to remain localized.
...Portions of the Florida Peninsula...
Dry fuels amid persistent drought across the Florida Peninsula may
heighten localized fire weather concerns as scattered thunderstorms
pass through the region on Day 1/Friday into Day 2/Saturday. Areas
that do not see sufficient rainfall may see potential ignitions from
lightning interacting with areas of drier fuels.
..Chalmers/Lyons.. 02/27/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 262142
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 061200Z
Mid-level flow will remain amplified over CONUS through Day
3/Saturday before the ridge over the Southwest slowly shifts east
Day 4/Sunday - Day 5/Monday. On Day 3/Saturday, continued downslope
flow in southeastern Wyoming will bring dry and breezy conditions
atop curing fuels. Throughout the day, 700 mb winds will decrease
and northwesterly flow aloft will gradually move eastward,
minimizing upper-level support for stronger sustained winds atop the
lowest RH. Therefore, 40% Critical probabilities have been withheld
for now. Dry fuels and a drought ridden landscape across the FL
Peninsula may heighten localized fire weather concerns as scattered
thunderstorms pass through the region on Day 2/Friday into Day
3/Saturday. Areas that do not see sufficient rainfall may have
holdovers from potential lightning ignitions.
Zonal flow aloft evolves in the Southwest on Day 4/Sunday as surface
troughing pushes cooler air into the Central US. Depending on the
extent of the arctic airmass, moisture advection via southerly flow
along the TX Gulf Coast into the southern High Plains may be
limited. Increasing heights and northwesterly flow aloft will
promote warm, dry air across the Southwest. Locally elevated fire
weather conditions may arise in areas with stronger terrain-driven
wind.
Day 5/Monday - Day 8/Thursday, a transition to southwesterly flow
aloft in the Southwest and southern High Plains will evolve as a
closed low develops off the West Coast and treks across the Great
Basin. Surface troughing and enhanced southerly surface flow may
bring modest Gulf moisture to the Plains region. Despite model and
ensemble uncertainties in the overlap of strong winds and low RH in
the Southwest (and to some extent, parts of the southern High
Plains), elevated fire weather conditions may emerge as a result of
the overall synoptic pattern.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Thornton.. 02/26/2026
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