ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 311840

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0140 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

   Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...Afternoon Update...
   The Elevated risk area was trimmed to account for expected higher RH
   and precipitation chances in the northern TX Panhandle. Strong
   southwesterly winds of 20-25 mph (gusts up to 40 mph) combined with
   20-25 percent RH atop a dry fuelscape will maintain an Elevated fire
   weather concern. However, widespread cloud cover and scattered light
   rainfall could dampen fire weather conditions across parts of the
   area. East-central and southeastern NM may experience locally
   critical fire weather conditions where RH will decrease to 15-20
   percent for a couple of hours within a region of 90th percentile
   ERCs. See the previous discussion for more information.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 03/31/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states tomorrow
   (Wednesday), resulting in rapid surface low development across the
   central Plains. Strong gradient flow will support widespread 20-25
   mph sustained westerly surface winds west of a dryline. While
   Critical highlights were considered, widespread cloudiness will
   dampen boundary-layer mixing to a degree, with RH expected to stay
   above Critical thresholds (i.e. 20-25 percent RH). Given the
   presence of dry fuels and stronger winds, Elevated highlights have
   been introduced.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 312202

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0502 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

   Valid 021200Z - 081200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Amplified upper-level flow will progress from the western U.S. into
   the Great Plains initiating a lee-surface low in eastern CO/western
   KS on D3/Thursday. The negatively tilted shortwave trough will
   traverse the northern High Plains on D4/Friday and shift northeast,
   bringing cooler temperatures, much needed rain, and higher elevation
   snow to much of the western U.S., with precipitation expanding
   eastward east of the Continental Divide through the remainder of the
   week. This should reduce broader fire weather concerns across parts
   of the High Plains into the Midwest. However, fire weather concerns
   will remain for areas that do not see appreciable rainfall on Day
   3/Thursday and Day 4/Friday in the central and southern High Plains.
   An upper ridge builds back across the western U.S. thereafter,
   bringing warm and dry weather through the end of the forecast
   period.

   ...Day 3-4/Thursday-Friday - Southern High Plains and far West
   Texas...
   Strong westerly mid-level winds and lee surface troughing will
   continue to support dry, downslope favored flow across the southern
   High Plains for both D3/Thursday and D4/Friday. With the
   intensification of a surface low and deepening upper trough, a tight
   surface pressure gradient will develop in southeastern CO and
   northeastern NM on Day 3/Thursday. 70% Critical fire weather
   probabilities have been introduced for this region to account for
   south-southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph and RH of 10-20 percent atop
   receptive fuels. For Day 4/Friday, 40% probabilities of Critical
   have been maintained across the southern High Plains, though will
   likely need to be adjusted as confidence increases in the location
   and timing of a cold frontal passage in the TX Panhandle. Model
   guidance is hinting at a potential downslope wind event in the
   northern CO Front Range on Day 4/Friday, but have withheld from
   introducing highlights until there is better ensemble member
   agreement. 

   Upper ridging builds back in this weekend across the western U.S.,
   persisting through early next week. Given the overall pattern,
   locally elevated fire weather conditions may arise as dry conditions
   prevail across parts of the central and southern High Plains.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 03/31/2026