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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 171650

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1150 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

   Valid 171700Z - 181200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST
   OKLAHOMA...

   The Critical area over the southern Plains was expanded to include a
   slightly larger portion of central Texas and into nearby areas of
   southwestern Oklahoma. Forecast guidance is indicating that this
   region will experience at least a few hours of slightly stronger
   westerly winds, sustained at 15-25 mph with minimum RHs near 10-20%.
   Surface observations over this area are already indicating a
   tightening pressure gradient with sustained southwest winds up to
   15-20 mph and RHs dropping into the mid-teens. Over central Wyoming,
   the latest forecast guidance shows that much of central portions of
   the state are not expected to reach elevated criteria with RH
   struggling to fall below 30%. Thus, portions of the Elevated area
   were trimmed toward the south commensurate with the spatial extent
   of the lowest RHs in this area. All other areas remain on track.

   ..Stearns/Williams.. 03/17/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected today
   across the High Plains and southern Plains. Very dry conditions are
   prevalent across the central CONUS in the wake of a strong frontal
   passage (dewpoints in the single digits to low teens over the Plains
   are near/below the 10th percentile for mid-March). Surface high
   pressure over the southern CONUS will continue to shift east through
   the day as a lee trough deepens along the High Plains. The resulting
   pressure gradient winds across the southern Plains and off downslope
   flow the western slopes of the Rockies will promote elevated to
   critical fire weather conditions over regions with recent wildfire
   activity. 

   ...Southern Plains...
   Forecast guidance continues to show strengthening southwest winds
   through the afternoon across central TX to central OK as the
   pressure gradient strengthens with the deepening surface trough
   along the High Plains. Relative humidity reductions will be most
   pronounced (and possibly as low as 10-15%) from western TX into
   southwest OK under the low-level thermal ridge. Model consensus
   suggests winds through this corridor will increase to 15-20 mph;
   however, guidance typically under-mixes the boundary layer in dry
   return flow regimes with higher RH values and weaker winds than
   actually observed. Based on this, the expectation is that winds
   under the thermal ridge will likely be sustained near 20 mph, which
   will increase the probability of sustained critical fire weather
   conditions. A targeted critical risk area has been introduced across
   this region.

   ...Central to southern High Plains...
   Westerly 15-20 mph winds off the central to southern Rockies will
   support several areas of elevated fire weather conditions from
   central and southeast WY southward into West TX. Forecast guidance
   show reasonably good agreement in RH reductions down to 20% with
   areas of 15% possible. Solutions that typically over-mix in these
   regimes (notably the RAP and HRRR) hint that 20-25 mph winds are
   possible across southeast WY into far northeast CO and parts of the
   NE Panhandle where active wildfires have been ongoing in recent
   days. Confidence in sustained critical conditions across this
   corridor is limited due to spread in guidance and poor ensemble
   agreement, but given the very dry conditions, observed trends will
   be monitored for the need for Critical highlights.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 171913

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0213 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
   WYOMING...EXTREME WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND EXTREME NORTHERN
   COLORADO...

   A Critical area has been introduced over portions of southeast
   Wyoming, extreme western Nebraska, and extreme northern Colorado. In
   this area, forecast guidance indicates sustained west-northwest
   winds of 20-25 mph combined with RHs of 10-18% by mid-afternoon. The
   strongest winds will be near and east of the leeward slopes of the
   Laramie Mountains. In this area, the duration of critical wind/RH
   will likely approach 5 or more hours during peak heating.

   The Elevated area was expanded to the east and south across the
   northern and central Colorado plains and farther into the
   southwestern South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle. The limiting
   factors for expansion farther west and north are cloud cover and
   existing marginal fuel receptiveness. However, given the persistent
   pattern and resultant anomalous temperatures expected over much of
   the region, this area will be watched closely for potential
   expansion as fuels continue to dry.

   ..Stearns/Williams.. 03/17/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Elevated fire weather conditions will persist across portions of the
   central High Plains on Wednesday. An anomalously strong upper ridge
   will gradually build across the Southwest over the next 48 hours,
   which will establish a northwesterly flow regime over the central
   CONUS. With stronger mid-level flow displaced towards the northern
   Rockies, lee troughing will become most pronounced across central MT
   to eastern WY Wednesday morning through the afternoon. Confidence is
   fairly high (80%) in sustained winds between 15-25 mph across
   central WY into the NE Panhandle and far northeast CO. A resumption
   of westerly downslope flow will support RH reductions into the
   20-25% range based on ensemble consensus. Drier/more well-mixed
   solutions hint at RH reductions as low as the 10-15% range, which
   would support a swath of critical fire weather conditions (mainly
   across central to southeast WY). However, confidence in this
   potential is limited based on modest ensemble probabilities (around
   40-50% probability of RH reductions below 15%). Regardless,
   antecedent drought conditions and preceding dry/windy conditions on
   Tuesday will maintain dry fuels (and/or help cure fine fuels in
   areas that recently received precipitation) to support the fire
   weather threat Wednesday afternoon.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 172128

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0428 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

   Valid 191200Z - 251200Z

   The synoptic pattern will remain fairly consistent throughout much
   of the forecast period, dominated by a persistent upper-level ridge
   centered over the California/Arizona border. A shortwave trough will
   crest the ridge, moving through the Pacific Northwest on Day
   5/Saturday before crossing the northern Plains and Great Lakes
   region Day 6/Sunday into Day 7/Monday. Recent forecast guidance
   suggests this passing shortwave may dampen the amplitude of the
   upper-level ridge more than previously indicated, potentially
   shifting the corridor of stronger mid-level flow further south late
   in the period.

   On Day 3/Thursday through Day 5/Saturday, moderate northwest flow
   aloft will remain in place over much of the central High Plains.
   Record warm temperatures are likely as the ridge builds across the
   western US, leading to deep boundary-layer mixing and resultant dry,
   windy conditions across portions of southeast Wyoming, the northern
   Colorado plains, and western Nebraska. A 70% area was introduced for
   Day 3/Thursday, reflecting high confidence in sustained westerly
   winds of 20-30 mph overlapping with RH values of 10-15% during peak
   heating. While the signal for critical winds is lower on Day
   4/Friday or Day 5/Saturday, these areas will be monitored for future
   changes.

   On Day 5/Saturday and Day 6/Sunday, current guidance suggests the
   potential for critical conditions over portions of the southern and
   central Plains. Given the consistency in model solutions favoring
   the southern Plains, a 40% area was added over the Texas and
   Oklahoma Panhandles and adjacent states for Day 5/Saturday. This
   area will likely require spatial expansion in subsequent updates as
   confidence in the wind field extent increases. Another 40% area was
   added for Day 6/Sunday to account for strengthening pre-frontal
   southwesterly flow across portions of Texas.

   Record temperatures and dry conditions will continue to desiccate
   fuels over several consecutive days across the southern half of the
   western US through the outlook period. Independent of wind speeds,
   high vapor pressure deficits and low RH values suggest extended burn
   periods across these areas where fuels become increasingly receptive
   to ignition.

   ..Stearns/Williams.. 03/17/2026
      




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