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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 201546

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1046 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

   Valid 201700Z - 211200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN WYOMING...

   Visible satellite data depicts clear skies, with boundary-layer
   warming underway. Surface observations show temperatures reaching
   the 60s F in spots, with RH dipping to 20 percent, and westerly
   surface winds approaching 20 mph amid 25 mph gusts. Guidance
   consensus suggests that boundary-layer mixing will continue into the
   afternoon hours, resulting in overlapping widespread 15-20 percent
   RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds. As such, the
   current Elevated and Critical highlights across the northern High
   Plains into the northern Rockies have been maintained.

   ..Squitieri.. 03/20/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   A persistent upper-level ridge will remain centered over the
   Southwest today with modest northwest flow aloft across the
   central/northern High Plains. Surface high pressure over the
   Intermountain West coupled with lee troughing across the northern
   Great Plains will continue to favor a downslope wind regime, with
   dry and windy conditions forecast to support elevated to critical
   fire weather concerns across portions of the central and northern
   High Plains.

   ...Central/Northern High Plains...
   Record warm temperatures continue across much of the West amid an
   anomalously strong upper-level ridge centered across the Southwest.
   With high pressure remaining in place across the Intermountain West
   and lee troughing across the northern Great Plains, a continuing
   downslope wind regime is forecast to yield sustained
   west-northwesterly surface winds of 20-25 mph across portions of
   central/eastern Wyoming. Poor overnight RH recoveries have been
   noted via recent surface observations with further RH reductions to
   10-20% forecast this afternoon. Coupled with receptive fuels, this
   is expected to support critical fire weather conditions across
   central/eastern Wyoming today. Elevated fire weather concerns are
   also forecast across adjacent areas of the western Wyoming Basin and
   portions of southwestern South Dakota and western Nebraska where
   surface winds of 15-20 mph are expected to overlap minimum RH values
   of 10-20%. 

   Fuels remain more marginal farther to the north across much of
   southern Montana and portions of extreme southwestern North Dakota
   and northwestern South Dakota; however, continued warm/dry
   conditions have supported some drying of fine fuels along with
   recent fire activity. Given this, elevated fire weather conditions
   are expected this afternoon as RH values are forecast to range from
   15-25% amid stronger sustained westerly winds of 15-25 mph. 40+
   knots of 700 mb flow across this region coupled with deep boundary
   layer mixing may also support occasional wind gusts of 30-40 mph.

   ...Central Nevada into southern Oregon...
   Guidance continues to indicate localized potential for sustained
   southwesterly surface winds of 10-15 mph this afternoon as the
   surface pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold
   front. With RH values forecast to fall to 10-15%, localized elevated
   fire weather concerns may materialize across portions of southern
   Oregon into central Nevada, especially in areas that favor
   terrain-induced wind enhancements. However, widespread elevated
   conditions are not expected at this time given marginal early season
   fuel conditions and sporadic coverage of coincident elevated wind/RH
   criteria.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 201854

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0154 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN
   WYOMING...FAR NORTHWESTERN COLORADO...EXTREME WESTERN
   NEBRASKA...EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...

   Much of the previous forecast remains on track based on the latest
   guidance consensus. Elevated highlights were expanded farther east
   toward the mid-Mississippi Valley region, where 15-25 percent RH, 15
   mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, and highly receptive
   fuels, will overlap to support relatively robust wildfire spread
   potential. Elevated highlights were also trimmed from much of
   central Utah, where the latest guidance consensus has trended
   somewhat weaker with wind speeds, lessening the fire spread threat
   to a degree given marginally receptive fuels. Please see the
   previous forecast below for details on wildfire-spread potential
   across the Intermountain West to the central and southern Plains.

   ..Squitieri.. 03/20/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0229 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   A cold front will surge south through the northern/central Great
   Plains and northern Great Basin with a surface low developing
   southward in the lee of the Rockies. A widespread strengthening of
   surface winds ahead of this frontal system coupled with reduced RH
   values is forecast to support elevated to critical fire weather
   concerns from the southern/eastern Great Basin through the central
   Great Plains.

   ...Southern/eastern Great Basin to the central Great Plains...
   Forecast guidance continues to depict at least a temporary break
   down of the upper-level ridge centered over the Southwest on
   D2/Saturday as a shortwave trough crests the ridge and moves through
   the Pacific Northwest. Simultaneously, a surface low will develop
   southward in the lee of the Rockies while an associated cold front
   advances southward across much of the West and the Great Plains. The
   strongest sustained winds (20-30 mph) coupled with minimum RH values
   of 10-15% are forecast to support critical fire weather conditions
   across southeastern Wyoming and adjacent portions of western
   Nebraska, northwestern Colorado, extreme northeastern Utah, and
   extreme southwestern South Dakota. Modest westerly mid-level flow
   coupled with deep boundary layer mixing will also support the
   potential for occasional wind gusts of 30-35 mph across this area.

   Elsewhere within the Elevated highlights, a strengthening surface
   pressure gradient ahead of this frontal system will support
   widespread sustained surface winds of 10-20 mph. With continuing
   potential for record warm temperatures across much of the West
   aiding in the drying of fine fuels and forecast RH values of 10-20%
   (locally down to 5%) during peak heating, widespread elevated fire
   weather conditions are expected from the southern/eastern Great
   Basin eastward to the central Great Plains and from portions of West
   Texas northward to Wyoming. While much of the high elevations of the
   central Rockies are within the Elevated area, fuel conditions and
   snow cover will preclude any fire weather concerns in those areas.

   The southward moving cold front will then bring a shift to northerly
   winds for the central/northern High Plains and northern Great Basin.
   This front is anticipated to be dry, however, which may bring the
   potential for elevated fire weather conditions to temporarily
   persist after the frontal passage.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 202039

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0339 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

   Valid 221200Z - 281200Z

   Upper ridging is poised to overspread the CONUS through the extended
   (Days 3-8) period. Embedded mid-level impulses will traverse the
   upper ridge, encouraging a surface cold front to sweep across the
   CONUS (east of the Rockies) early in the week. Thereafter, surface
   lee troughing will become established across the Plains, promoting
   occasional bouts of dry downslope flow across portions of the High
   Plains.

   ...Day 3/Sunday...
   A surface low will encourage dry downslope flow across the southern
   High Plains as an approaching cold front sweeps southward across the
   central and southern Plains on Sunday. The best chance for
   critically dry and windy conditions will be across portions of the
   Texas Rolling Plains per latest guidance consensus. However, at
   least Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are expected across
   the remainder of the southern High Plains due to dry downslope flow,
   and across northern Oklahoma into Kansas behind the cold front.
   While temperatures (and thus RH) will be lower in Oklahoma/Kansas
   compared to points farther south, very strong northerly surface
   winds, potentially exceeding 30 mph in spots, will encourage rapid
   wildfire-spread potential given dry fuels.

   ...Day 4/Monday...
   The surface cold front will sweep across the East Coast while
   surface lee troughing continues across the High Plains on Monday. 40
   percent Critical probabilities remain in place across southern
   Virginia into northern South Carolina, where guidance consensus
   continues to show a dry and breezy post-cold-frontal environment
   over dry fuels. Dry downslope flow will also promote dry and windy
   conditions across southern Wyoming, warranting the continuation of
   40 percent Critical probabilities here as well.

   ...Day 6/Wednesday...
   The next chance for appreciable wildfire-spread potential will be on
   Wednesday across portions of Wyoming and immediate surrounding
   areas. A mid-level impulse will traverse the region, enhancing
   downslope flow and supporting dry/windy conditions for several hours
   Wednesday afternoon. 70 percent Critical probabilities were
   introduced given multiple preceding days of no rainfall and
   dry/windy conditions, which will further cure fuels that are already
   receptive to fire spread.

   ..Squitieri.. 03/20/2026
      




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