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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 061633

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1133 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026

   Valid 061700Z - 071200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   ...Morning Update...
   The forecast remains on track. Recent surface analysis placed a cold
   front from south-central CO through far eastern NM into the TX Hill
   Country. Marginal overnight humidity recoveries occurred for
   southeastern NM, however, West Texas did not experience good
   recoveries. Current surface observations depict RH values of 20-30
   percent across the region, gradually decreasing under clearing skies
   and afternoon heating. While ERCs have declined due to recent
   appreciable rainfall, localized fire weather concerns may emerge
   where dry and breezy conditions align with sporadic dry fuels. See
   the previous discussion for more information.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/06/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Mid-level split flow consolidates into a broader southwesterly 70-80
   knot jet over the Ozarks into the OH River Valley today ahead of an
   elongated upper trough stretching from the Upper Midwest to the
   Desert Southwest. At the surface, an advancing cold front extends
   southwestward from the Northeast into the Southern Plains. A
   deepening lee surface trough across eastern NM will promote dry,
   downslope westerly winds across portions of the southern NM and west
   TX under reinforcing southwesterly flow aloft.

   ...Southern New Mexico into West Texas...
   Southwesterly flow aloft and low-level westerly winds (south of an
   evolving lee surface low) will affect much of southern NM and West
   TX today. Enhanced downslope drying yielding minimum RH of 10-15%
   along with west winds of 15-25 mph are expected during peak boundary
   layer mixing today. However, marginal fuels will inhibit overall
   wildfire spread potential due to recent rainfall, although pockets
   of dry fuels could support localized elevated fire weather concerns
   particularly across the Cap Rock area.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 061840

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0140 PM CDT Wed May 06 2026

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   The ongoing forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion
   for more information.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/06/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper-level trough and associated mid-level speed max will shift
   into eastern CONUS Thursday. A cold front and attendant band of
   showers and thunderstorms will overspread much of the Southeast and
   Piedmont regions. Increasing westerly low-level flow south of the
   frontal boundary will bring fire weather concerns to portions of
   eastern FL Thursday. A building upper ridge across the western U.S.
   will promote warming temperatures and dry conditions for the region.


   ...Florida Peninsula...
   Enhanced westerly surface winds of 10-15 mph are expected across the
   FL Peninsula as a cold front approaches the FL/GA border Thursday.
   Inland temperatures in the low to mid 90s F will evolve within a
   dry, well mixed boundary layer by early Thursday afternoon. The warm
   temperatures, increasing westerly flow amid relative humidity in the
   25-35% range and drying fuels, will support an elevated fire weather
   concern for portions of the eastern FL Peninsula where Elevated
   Highlights have been introduced.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 062127

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0427 PM CDT Wed May 06 2026

   Valid 081200Z - 141200Z

   Upper troughing will extend along the eastern U.S. and persist
   through early next week as an upper-level low over eastern Canada
   remains anchored. This pattern will encourage unsettled weather and
   repeated chances for precipitation across portions of the Southeast
   to the Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, broader fire weather concerns may
   temporarily be dampened for much of the eastern U.S. through the
   duration of the forecast period, given a widespread transition to
   green-up and expected appreciable precipitation. 

   An upper ridge will prevail across the western U.S. through the
   forecast period. This pattern may result in a curing event, given
   above normal temperatures and dry conditions to persist for much of
   the Intermountain West. However, timely green-up phase of fuels and
   lighter winds should keep concerns low through early next week.
   Localized fire weather concerns may emerge in terrain-favored areas
   where stronger winds overlap dry fuels.

   Between western U.S. ridging and troughing to the east, broad
   northwesterly flow over the High Plains and Upper Midwest is
   expected to promote sporadic dry and windy conditions atop drying
   fuels. Uncertainty in medium-range guidance precludes critical
   probabilities at this time, however, fire weather potential should
   become more evident in future outlooks.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/06/2026
      




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