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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 231553
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1053 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026
Valid 231700Z - 241200Z
Much of the Elevated area was refined to account for the footprint
of recent precipitation across portions of South Carolina and
Georgia. The strong cold front and resultant associated downslope
flow over the lee side of the southern Appalachians required
expansion of the Elevated area farther west into portions of
northern Georgia as well. Higher recent rainfall accumulation to the
south of this area (where some of the windiest conditions are
expected) may allow for locally elevated conditions this evening as
the front passes.
..Stearns.. 03/23/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will modestly amplify in the Northeast today.
A cold front will push southward through the southern Appalachians.
Farther west, a weak lee trough will help to enhance surface winds
on the western flank of a surface high.
...Piedmont...
Dry, downslope winds off of the southern Appalachians will promote
elevated fire weather this afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will be
possible in the lee of the terrain. RH is not as certain, but 25-30%
appears probable. Values closer to 20% may occur locally.
...Central Plains...
An enhanced surface pressure gradient will develop as a weak lee
trough deepens on the westerly flank of a seasonably strong surface
high in the Upper Midwest. Surface winds of 15-20 mph are possible.
How low RH will drop during the afternoon is the biggest uncertainty
in this scenario. Copious mid/high-level cloud cover is expected.
Most guidance suggests RH will be only marginally below elevated
criteria. Furthermore, the strongest winds may be slightly displaced
from the lowest RH. Overall, locally elevated conditions are
expected given dry fuels, but broad, sustained elevated conditions
are much less certain.
...Southwest into central High Plains...
Very dry conditions will exist from the Southwest into southeast
Colorado. RH of 10-20% is expected by the afternoon. Winds in most
locations will be relatively weak. Terrain-enhanced wind could reach
up to 20 mph. Locally elevated to near critical conditions could
occur.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 231822
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes were made to the graphical forecast. Locally elevated
conditions will be likely over portions of northwest Nevada and
southeast Oregon where above normal surface temperatures will
promote deep boundary layer mixing. This will mix southwest winds of
10-20 mph to the surface combined with RHs of 15-25%. Similarly,
deep mixing promoted by warm temperatures will support northwest
flow aloft mixing to the surface over portions of the High Plains.
While RHs of 18-30% will not be quite as low over these areas, brief
and locally elevated conditions remain possible over portions of
portions of eastern Wyoming, southwest South Dakota, and much of the
Nebraska Panhandle.
..Stearns.. 03/23/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026/
...Synopsis...
The western upper-level ridge will amplify on Tuesday. With the
eastern surface high weakening and moving offshore, the surface
pressure gradient will weaken compared to previous days. Pockets of
marginally dry and breezy conditions may occur in central Plains and
the Midwest. A weak lee trough will also encourage localized dry and
windy conditions in the immediate lee of southern/central Rockies.
Given the marginal fire weather conditions expected, only localized
concerns are expected at this time.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 232123
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0423 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 311200Z
Daily high temperature records over much of the southern two-thirds
of the western US will continue to be broken during Day 1/Monday and
Day 2/Tuesday. On Day 3/Wednesday, a potent upper-level trough
approaches the Pacific Northwest and will significantly dampen the
amplitude of the existing ridge as it moves across the northern
CONUS border on Day 4/Thursday. The jet max will exit the Eastern
Seaboard on Day 5/Friday. The western US upper-level ridge is poised
to build back next weekend. Forecast guidance suggests that this
ridge will be nudged eastward by a robust trough moving across the
northern Pacific, but the timing and speed of the parent trough is
uncertain at this point. The latest forecast guidance does suggest
that a shortwave could move through the flow around Day 8/Monday. If
this does come to fruition, it could provide some precipitation
across portions of the Intermountain West starting on Day 7/Sunday.
On Day 3/Wednesday, as the ridge over the western US breaks down,
warm surface temperatures will support a deep boundary layer, mixing
strong westerly winds associated with the passing upper-level jet to
the surface. Forecast guidance indicates sustained west winds of
20-30 mph will combine with RHs of 10-20% at the surface for several
hours during the afternoon. This warrants a 70% area for much of
east-central Wyoming while 40% probabilities cover portions of
northern Colorado, extreme northeast Utah, eastern Idaho, southern
Montana, southwest South Dakota, and western Nebraska where surface
winds will be slightly weaker and/or RHs slightly higher. A very
small potential for a thunderstorm or two will be possible over the
western slopes of Colorado during peak heating. If convection does
initiate, very little precipitation will be realized at the ground
level.
On Day 4/Thursday, a cold front, supported by the aforementioned
passing upper-level trough, is expected to surge south across the
central and southern Plains. A 70% probability was added over the
area of greatest certainty covering much of the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles and portions of east-central New Mexico. The 40%
probability area was expanded slightly east due to forecast guidance
advecting drier conditions farther across the southern Plains while
the western extent was expanded to include extreme eastern Arizona
and across much of New Mexico. Uncertainty in the timing and
evolution of this front will likely necessitate adjustments to the
risk area.
On Day 6/Saturday, northerly winds behind the cold front passing
through the Southeast CONUS late on Day 5/Friday will likely produce
downslope flow, contributing to lower RHs and gusty surface winds
once again. However, precipitation between now and then is likely
across portions of the area. Where rainfall may accumulate will
likely dictate the extent of any fire weather concerns over this
region. Thus, the drawn 40% area is likely to evolve over the coming
days as this precipitation influences fuels receptivity to ignition
over this region. Additionally, a 40% area was drawn over a good
portion of the central Plains for Day 6/Saturday. The surface
pressure gradient will tighten across this area as a result of a
surface high located over the mid-Mississippi River Valley and a
strengthening surface low over Wyoming, resulting in strong
southerly winds from Kansas to South Dakota.
..Stearns.. 03/23/2026
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