|
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 261624
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026
Valid 261700Z - 271200Z
...Morning Update...
No changes were made to the previous forecast. In southeastern
Wyoming, westerly surface winds are currently sustained at 25-35 mph
across the plains, gusting up to 50 mph near the higher terrain.
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected as RH values will
steadily decrease to below 20% by peak heating, though sustained
winds are expected to hover around 15-25 mph (gusting up to 40 mph)
this afternoon before increasing once again this evening. In
south-central Texas, northerly winds are increasing behind an
incoming dry cold front. Surface RH values below 20% and gusty
post-frontal winds of 15-20 mph atop dry fine fuels will support
Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. See the previous
discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Thornton.. 02/26/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026/
...Synopsis...
...Portions of South-Central Texas...
A weak, dry cold front will bring RH values of 10-20% to portions of
south-central Texas this afternoon as a modest surface low shifts
south and east across Texas. A moderately strong pressure gradient
on the western/southwestern periphery of the low will support
sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph (locally higher in
terrain-favored areas). With warm, dry antecedent conditions
yielding receptive fine fuels, this combination of winds and RH will
support Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon.
...Portions of the Central and Southern High Plains...
A low pressure system pushing eastward across southern Canada today
will couple with building high pressure across portions of western
Wyoming and northwestern Colorado to yield a strengthening
cross-terrain surface pressure gradient over portions of the Central
Rockies. This setup will favor dry, northwesterly downslope winds of
15-25 mph with locally higher gusts and RH values of 10-20% atop
receptive fuels. These conditions will support Elevated fire weather
conditions from portions of northeastern New Mexico northward to
southeastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle.
...Central and Southeastern Montana...
Similar to areas farther south across the central High Plains, a
strong, cross-terrain surface pressure gradient will support at
least a few hours of strong downslope winds. However, given recent
light precipitation and forecast RH values of 20-30%, any elevated
fire weather concerns are expected to remain local.
|
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 261806
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...19z Update...
No changes were made to the previous forecast. An overlap of
northwesterly 35-45 mph sustained surface winds and RH values of
10-20% will likely exist for a few hours on Friday afternoon for
southeastern WY, northeastern CO, and the western NE Panhandle. With
multiple days of strong, dry downslope winds preceding Day 2/Friday
atop a drought-ridden landscape, fuels are likely to be receptive to
fire. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected for central NM
into the lee of the Sandia Manzano Mountains as very low RH values
of 10-20% and sustained westerly winds of 15-20 mph coalesce atop a
region of potentially drier fine fuels. While broad forecast ERC
values within the risk area are between the 50th-70th percentiles,
recent fires in the landscape and antecedent days of dry/windy
conditions maintain fire weather concerns.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Thornton.. 02/26/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026/
...Synopsis...
...Portions of eastern and southeastern Wyoming into northeastern
Colorado and the Nebraska Panhandle...
Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected
Friday as strong mid-level flow and a 40-kt northwesterly 700 mb jet
will support strong northwesterly downslope winds in the lee of the
Laramie Range. Guidance is in generally good agreement regarding
20-30 mph sustained surface winds with gusts up to 35-45 mph
(locally higher in terrain-favored areas) overlapping RH values of
15-20%. Some guidance indicates even lower RH values of 10-15%
across this area, but uncertainty regarding how low RH values will
drop precludes the addition of a Critical area at this time.
...Portions of central and east-central New Mexico...
Lower RH values of 10-15% are expected to be more common from
northeastern Colorado southward into eastern New Mexico. Winds are
expected to remain generally light across this region, with the
exception being across portions of central into east-central New
Mexico where a belt of modest northwesterly mid-level flow is
expected to support dry, downslope winds in the lee of the Sandia
Manzano Mountains. Elevated highlights have been added where
sustained northwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph (locally higher)
are expected to overlap RH values of 10-20% Friday afternoon.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 252153
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 051200Z
...Synopsis..
Mid-level flow will remain amplified over CONUS through the weekend
before an upper-level pattern change early next week. The current
pattern will prevail through Day 5/Sunday, aiding in continued
Elevated fire weather conditions in the Central and Southern Plains.
Day 6/Monday - Day 8/Wednesday, a transition to southwesterly flow
aloft in the Southwest and Southern Plains will evolve as a closed
low develops off the West Coast. Surface troughing and enhanced
southerly surface flow may bring modest Gulf moisture to the Plains
region, limiting broader fire weather concerns in the extended
forecast period.
...Day 3/Friday - Southeastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle
and northeastern Colorado...
Strong mid-level flow and a coincident 700mb 40-50 kt jet may
support strong downslope winds and low RH in the lee of the Laramie
Range into the Central High Plains on Day 3/Friday. As the surface
trough strengthens across the northern High Plains, a tight pressure
gradient east of the Rockies will enhance westerly surface winds of
25-35 mph (gusts up to 50 mph near the Laramie Range) and decreased
RH values of 15-20% at peak heating. With multiple days of strong,
dry downslope winds preceding Day 3/Friday, fuels are likely to be
receptive to fire. 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced
to account for this.
On Day 4/Saturday, mid-level flow slowly shifts zonal as surface
troughing pushes cooler air into the Central US while southerly flow
along the TX Gulf Coast advects moisture northward into the Southern
Plains. Dry fuels and a drought ridden landscape across the FL
Peninsula may heighten localized fire weather concerns as scattered
thunderstorms pass through the region on Day 3/Friday and Day
4/Saturday. Areas that do not see sufficient rainfall may have
holdovers from potential lightning ignitions.
Some model spread exists on Day 5/Sunday and Day 6/Monday in the
overall extent of surface moisture return and southern expanse of
the backdoor cold front, but there is some concern for dry and gusty
surface winds across Eastern New Mexico ahead of the front. Given
these uncertainties, Critical probabilities have been withheld for
now.
By Day 7/Tuesday and Day 8/Wednesday, the frontal boundary should
weaken across Texas and redevelop northward allowing low-level
moisture to advect northward into the Central Plains. Considering
the overall resulting pattern, fire weather concerns appear fairly
minimal and localized through the extended forecast period.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Thornton.. 02/25/2026
|
|
