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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 280529
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
WESTERN TEXAS...
...Synopsis...
As a low pressure system off the West Coast slowly approaches Baja
CA, a mid/upper shortwave trough over the Southwest will traverse
the High Plains encouraging strong westerly mid-level flow. Fire
weather conditions will continue for portions of western NM into the
southern Plains as a result of downslope warming and boundary layer
mixing. A deepening surface low will pass over the Great Lakes
region into southern Ontario, assisting in the breakdown of upper
ridging along the Eastern Seaboard. Increasing low-level southerly
flow ahead of an incoming trough and associated cold front will
allow for fire weather concerns to emerge in Upstate NY and western
VT amid a very dry airmass.
...Southern Plains...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue this
afternoon where a dry airmass and strong winds overlap a region of
receptive fuels. Widespread west to southwest winds of 15-20 mph
coupled with RH falling to 10-20 percent atop a dry fuelscape will
increase fire spread potential for any new and/or ongoing wildfires.
More intense wind belts of 20-25 mph aligning with RH reductions
close to 10 percent yield Critical fire weather conditions across
east-central and southeastern NM into adjacent portions of TX.
...Upstate New York and Western Vermont...
As surface pressure gradients tighten surrounding a surface low
positioned over central/eastern Ontario, southerly winds are
expected to reach 10-15 mph with localized/terrain enhanced 20 mph
corridors likely. Mid-upper level cloud cover will increase this
morning through the afternoon hours, potentially limiting deeper
mixing. However, RH of 25-35 percent (locally near 20 percent) are
still expected by early afternoon. These dry and breezy conditions
will align amid dry fuels to promote an Elevated fire weather threat
across upstate NY and western VT.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/28/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 280531
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper level shortwave trough will traverse the Midwest into
the Ohio Valley as an attendant surface low approaches the
Mid-Atlantic. A trailing cold front will progress east of the
Appalachians extending into the Southeast by Wednesday afternoon.
Dry westerly flow south of the advancing cold front is expected to
increase fire weather concerns for portions of southern GA and
northern FL where fuels remain dry. Enhanced mid-level westerly flow
ahead of an approaching Pacific trough will bolster a continued
downslope regime across the Southwest. With preceding days of
fire-effective weather conditions and receptive fuels, fire weather
concerns will persist over central NM to far eastern AZ on
Wednesday.
...Southwest...
Persistent westerly mid-level flow and developing lee-surface
troughing will promote dry and breezy conditions across eastern AZ
into central NM. While winds are fairly marginal compared to
previous days, widespread westerly winds of 15-20 mph and RH of less
than 15 percent amid dry fuels will support Elevated fire weather
conditions on Wednesday afternoon.
...Southern Georgia and northern Florida...
Beneath the upper level trough, a deepening surface low over the
Mid-Atlantic will enhance southwest to westerly surface winds across
much of the Southeast. An Elevated fire weather threat exists where
delayed Gulf moisture return amid an existing dry boundary layer is
expected to support minimum RH reductions of 25-35 percent (locally
less than 25 percent) across portions of southern GA into northern
FL by Wednesday afternoon. However, precipitation appears likely
along a southward progressing cold front through central GA. Fire
weather highlights may be adjusted in future outlooks as forecast
guidance aligns in the location/extent of the cold front and
rainfall amounts.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/28/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 272113
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0413 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026
Valid 291200Z - 051200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing moves into the eastern U.S. for the latter
part of the week while a cold front a parent surface low shifts off
the Eastern Seaboard by Day 4/Thursday. Dry westerly flow south of
the advancing cold front should bring a fire weather threat to
portions of southern GA and northern FL on Day 3/Wednesday where
fuels remain dry, although some rainfall is expected to temporarily
alleviate fire weather concerns on Day 4/Thursday. Farther west, a
Pacific upper-level trough advances towards Baja CA midweek. Robust
mid-level flow ahead of this trough will bolster a downslope regime,
allowing for continued fire weather concerns across portions of the
Southwest on Day 3/Wednesday. Widespread wetting rains are expected
across much of the Southern Plains as the Pacific trough moves into
the Southwest on Day 5/Thursday. Most of the eastern U.S. is
expected to receive rainfall through the week, reducing overall fire
weather concerns, although remaining dry pockets and thus receptive
fuels could remain particularly across central and northern Plains
and portions of the Southeast.
...Day 3/Wednesday...
...Southwest...
Enhanced mid-level flow will continue over the Southwest region
while a surface lee trough develops across the southern High Plains.
A modified, post frontal air mass filtering into OK, TX and eastern
NM will limit fire weather concerns across the southern High Plains,
with dry and breezy conditions impacting areas mainly along and west
of the central NM mountain ranges. 40% critical probabilities were
introduced across much of central and western NM into far eastern
AZ.
...Southeast...
Increasing west/southwest winds of 10-15 mph, south of a surface
trough migrating into the upper OH River Valley, should evolve
across portions of the Southeast on Day 3/Wednesday. Delayed Gulf
moisture return amid an existing dry boundary layer should support
minimum RH reductions of 20-30% across portions of southern GA into
northern FL by Wednesday afternoon. Fuels remain quite receptive
with ongoing active fires in the region. The dry and breezy
conditions along with a receptive fuel environment should yield
enhanced fire weather threat across southern GA and northern FL,
where 40% critical probabilities have been added.
..Williams.. 04/27/2026
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