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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 070756
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains today,
resulting in surface lee troughing and associated downslope across
the High Plains during the afternoon hours. RH should dip to or just
below 20 percent by afternoon peak heating, from western Texas to
the Nebraska Panhandle. Pockets of occasional 15 mph sustained
west-southwesterly surface winds may overlap with the aforementioned
RH across parts of the Texas and Nebraska Panhandles, promoting
locally Elevated conditions. Otherwise, surface conditions should
remain generally below Elevated criteria over much of the southern
High Plains.
..Squitieri.. 01/07/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 070809
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic flow will overspread the central CONUS tomorrow
(Thursday), with an embedded mid-level trough impinging on the
central/southern Plains as the mid-level trough (discussed in the
Day 1 Outlook) approaches the Great Lakes. A surface low will
quickly deepen while traversing the Mississippi Valley, resulting in
strong westerly isallobaric surface flow across the southern High
Plains. While 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds should
become common, RH may only dip to 25 percent. Furthermore, several
areas across portions of the Plains may experience appreciable
rainfall accumulations early Thursday morning, which may dampen
fuels. Given uncertainties in fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread
and potentially higher RH, fire weather highlights have been
withheld this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 01/07/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 062142
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 141200Z
A longwave trough will begin to progress out of the western US on
D3/Thursday, with a surface low developing across the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles into western Kansas. As this occurs, southerly flow will
increase with moisture advection into the western portion of the
Southern Plains and into the Mississippi and Missouri River Valleys.
Widespread rain/thunderstorm activity can be expected across some
portions of the central/eastern Southern Plains into the
Mississippi/Missouri River Valley. Less precipitation is likely
across portions of western Texas into western Oklahoma, where fire
concerns are possible D4/Friday and 5/Saturday.
...(D4/Friday - D5/Saturday) Southwestern/West-Central Texas...
Model guidance has been consistent in forecasting a steep gradient
in precipitation amounts extending from central
Oklahoma/north-central Texas, with the heaviest amounts eastward.
Confidence is increasing that portions of western Texas into western
Oklahoma will receive little to no precipitation. Latest fuels
guidance suggests grass loading is high with freeze cured grasses
present and ERCs around the 80th percentile. Strong and dry post
frontal northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains behind the
departing low. Overlap of relative humidity reductions to 15-20
percent are expected to overlap sustained northwesterly flow around
20 mph. A 40 percent area was included at this time given some
uncertainty still in where the gradient of higher precipitation will
be. Should precipitation totals exceed or not meet expectation,
some reduction or expansion of this area may be needed in upcoming
outlooks.
Lingering Elevated to Critical conditions may be possible again
across portions of southwestern Texas into far southwestern Oklahoma
on D5/Saturday. For now confidence is too low to include any areas
at this time.
..Thornton/Elizalde-garcia.. 01/06/2026
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