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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 251623
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Valid 251700Z - 261200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN WYOMING INTO
FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...
No significant changes to the previous fire outlook were necessary.
Robust mid-level westerly flow on the apex of a ridge across the
Intermountain West along with lee troughing across the
central/northern High Plains, will support a broad westerly wind
field across portions of the Northern Rockies, WY and into NE and
northwestern KS through this afternoon. The corridor of strongest
winds of 20-25 mph amid low relative humidity of 15-20% will promote
critical fire weather conditions across much of eastern WY into the
western NE Panhandle. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are
expected across portions of the Great Basin where abnormally warm
temperatures, relative humidity of around 15% and west-southwest
winds of 15-20 mph align this afternoon. However, marginal fuel
dryness should limit a broader fire weather threat across the Great
Basin.
..Williams.. 03/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026/
...Synopsis...
Strong upper-level winds will remain across the northern CONUS
today. A surface low/lee trough will develop in the central/northern
Plains, extending southward through the High Plains as well. A
strong cold front will move into the northern Plains into Thursday
morning.
...Wyoming into far western Nebraska/South Dakota...
Critical fire weather is expected by the afternoon as strong
mid-level winds and an increasing surface pressure gradient promote
20-25 mph winds (higher speeds within the terrain). RH will fall to
around 15% amid downslope warming/drying.
Adjacent portions of the northern Rockies and the central Plains
will experience elevated fire weather. Winds will still be strong in
the northern Rockies, but RH may not reach much below 20%. In the
central Plains, a strengthening pressure gradient will increase
winds to around 15 mph at least locally. RH will be 15-20% during
the afternoon.
...Texas Panhandle/South Plains...
The lee trough will promote increasing southerly surface winds by
the afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph appear possible. On the western
flank of northward returning moisture, RH will fall to 10-20%.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 251943
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
...Central and Southeastern New Mexico...Texas Panhandle...northwest
Oklahoma...
A pronounced surface low south of a strong cold front will develop
across the Southern High Plains Thursday while a subtle mid-level
short wave ejects into the southern High Plains by Thursday
afternoon. Dry, downslope favored flow with west to southwest winds
of 15-25 mph ahead of the advancing cold front will overlap with
very low relative humidity of around 10% across much of eastern NM,
the TX Panhandle into northwestern OK. In addition, record breaking
temperatures in the middle to upper 90s F will aid in rapid drying
of finer fuels through the afternoon. Farther south, single digit
relative humidity and downslope enhanced, albeit more localized,
winds of 15-20 mph along and east of the Sacramento Mountains
warranted a southward expansion of critical fire weather highlights
into southeastern NM. The cold front pushing south across the
southern Plains will bring an abrupt northerly wind shift to the
region through early Friday, with potential impacts to existing
wildfires or potential new ignitions.
...South-central Kansas...
A very dry boundary layer will be in place across southern KS before
the cold front arrives by late Thursday afternoon. The cold front
and impinging mid-level short wave, along with some mid-level
moisture should support development of high-based showers and
thunderstorms across southern KS by late Thursday afternoon and
evening. Minimal precipitation over a very receptive fuelscape
preceded by likely record high temperatures near 100 F should
support a higher ignition efficiency across the area. Therefore,
isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced, with westward
expansion into southwestern KS and even extreme northern OK
potential needed in subsequent outlooks.
..Williams.. 03/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026/
...Synopsis...
The strongest upper-level winds will persist within the northern
tier states on Thursday. Some amplification of the upper ridge is
expected in the West. Modest amplification of the upper trough over
southeaster Canada is also expected. Cooler air will move into much
of the CONUS by Friday morning.
...Central New Mexico...Texas Panhandle...northwest Oklahoma...
A cutoff low currently off the southern California coast will move
through the Southwest Wednesday and reach the southern Rockies/High
Plains Thursday afternoon. This feature will not be overly strong,
but will provide enhancement to the mid-level winds and help deepen
a surface low in the High Plains. This will promote 20-25 mph
surface winds. With very dry air remaining in the Southwest and
moving eastward, localized single digit RH is possible. More
broadly, 10-15% RH can be expected during the afternoon. Sustained
critical fire weather is most likely in these areas.
...Central Oklahoma into Flint Hills...
The exact degree of RH reductions within these areas remains
uncertain due to some moisture returning northward. However, mostly
clear skies are expected and warming temperatures (likely in the 90s
F given the current frontal progression forecast) will support RH
values of 20-30%. With the low-level jet centered over these
regions, winds of 15-25 mph (and stronger gusts) will promote
elevated to near critical fire weather conditions even with what
could be marginal RH reductions. The cold front will eventually move
southward and strong, gusty north winds will arrive in its wake.
Timing of the front will be mid/late afternoon for Kansas with
overnight into Friday morning for Oklahoma.
...Western Kansas...
Uncertainty in terms of the duration of fire weather concerns is
largest in this area. With the surface trough remaining here the
longest, weaker winds are expected for at least part of the day.
Ahead of the front, 15-20 mph may occur. Stronger northerly winds
are expected behind the front. As the front moves southward through
Wednesday into Thursday, some airmass modification appears probable
and the temperature drop behind the front will be more gradual. This
should allow for a secondary period of elevated to near critical
fire weather during late afternoon/early evening.
...Eastern Great Basin into the Southwest...
Ahead of a cold front, surface winds will increase across the
eastern Great Basin to 15-25 mph (locally higher). Across the
Southwest, weaker winds are expected due to the stronger mid-level
winds displaced farther north. There, only 15 mph is anticipated.
Elevated fire weather is forecast as fuels continue to dry.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 252159
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0459 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis...
An eastward translating upper-level trough will exit the eastern
U.S. by the weekend, with a broad surface high pressure settling
into the OH River Valley by Day 5 Sunday. A building ridge across
the West will continue to support near record heat across much of
the Southwestern U.S. through the end of the week as a trough
impinges upon the West Coast by early next week. At the surface, a
strong cold front should elevated fire weather concerns across
portions of the central and southern Plains on Day 3/Friday as dry,
post-frontal flow impacts this region. Dry southerly flow returns on
Day 4/Saturday across much of the southern and central Plains as
surface high pressure pushes into the eastern U.S. and lee troughing
evolves in the northern High Plains. Mid and upper-level moisture
entering the Southwest ahead of the next trough could bring
high-based showers and thunderstorms to portions of NM and AZ over
the weekend, increasing opportunities for ignitions over
unseasonably dry fuels.
...Day 3/Friday - Central and Southern Plains...
Broad post-frontal flow from the north-northeast will encompass
portions of the central and southern Plains on Day 3/Friday. The
gusty north-northeast winds accompanying a very dry air mass
centered across portions of eastern KS, southwestward into OK and
the TX Panhandle should support a fire weather threat across this
region. A northeastward expansion of the existing 40% probabilities
was warranted based on latest model guidance and receptive fuels in
place.
...Day 4/Saturday - Southern/Central Plains and Southeast...
Fire weather impacts from the dry post-frontal environment will
extend into portions of the Southeast by Day 4/Saturday. Appreciable
northeast winds amid low daytime relative humidity and dry fuels
supports continuation of the 40% critical probabilities for portions
of the Carolinas, GA, southern TN and northwestern AL.
...Day 5/Sunday - Arizona and New Mexico...
Increasing mid and upper-level moisture from the Pacific and
emerging daytime instability should support high-based convection
across portions of the Southwest. Exceptionally warm and dry
conditions preceding and leading up to this event has aided in fuel
receptivity to spread. As such, introduced a 10% probability for
isolated dry thunderstorms for portions of eastern AZ and western
NM, where drier fuels exist. Farther north, warming temperatures and
an increasingly dry boundary layer should align with breezy west
winds across portions of southeastern WY into western NE and far
northeastern CO where minimal precipitation is expected to fall over
the next few days. Dry fuels should largely still be in place by Day
5/Sunday across much of the High Plains so introduced 40% critical
probabilities where the dry fuels coexist with breezy west winds and
dry conditions. The high-based convection and dry thunderstorm
threat could linger into early next week as the trough enters the
western U.S. but generally cooler temperatures and higher relative
humidity could reduce overall fire weather threat.
..Williams.. 03/25/2026
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