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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 011628
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026
Valid 011700Z - 021200Z
...Morning Update...
The previous forecast remains on track. Mostly clear skies across
the FL Peninsula this morning will promote sufficient boundary layer
mixing into a drier airmass aloft. However, mid/high cloud cover is
expected to expand over the region as a digging northern stream
trough increases moisture aloft later this afternoon. Inland RH
values are expected to drop to 30-35 percent at peak heating while
westerly winds hover around 10 mph (gusts up to 15 mph) atop drought
stressed fuels, supportive of Elevated fire weather conditions.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026/
...Synopsis...
Broad mid-level troughing, with multiple embedded perturbations
should gradually deepen over the eastern US today as ridging builds
across the Great Basin. West of the ridge, a closed low will develop
offshore and slowly move inland over the Pacific Northwest. Strong
westerly flow is expected over much of the Gulf Coast and eastern US
as a frontal boundary slowly sags southward. Widespread
precipitation is forecast along and north of the front which should
greatly limit fire-weather potential outside of FL.
...FL...
South of the slow-moving front across the Gulf Coast and northern
FL, enhanced westerly flow is expected over the central and eastern
Peninsula this afternoon. While not overly strong (10-15 mph gusts),
the breezy conditions should develop beneath clear skies, a
relatively dry air mass with RH values of 30-35% and surface
temperatures near 90F. Widespread receptive fuels (ERCs in the
90-97th percentiles) will support elevated fire weather conditions.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 011931
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...Afternoon Update...
Recent guidance has trended towards a more accelerated cold frontal
progression across the northern Plains on Saturday afternoon,
resulting in minor adjustments to the Elevated risk area. While the
cold front will be dry, increasing cloud cover along and behind the
front will allow RH to remain somewhat marginal between 25-35
percent in southeastern MT and south-central ND. In far northeastern
WY and northwestern SD, a much drier airmass will exist for a few
hours ahead of the front, with RH between 10-20 percent before
rising as the front passes. However, the driest air and stronger
winds do not overlap, precluding the introduction of critical
highlights at this time. Very strong northerly winds of 15-25 mph
(gusts up to 30 mph) are likely for several hours following the
frontal passage, supportive of Elevated fire weather conditions.
In FL, Elevated highlights have been expanded slightly to account
for a broader region of sustained west-southwest winds of 10-15 mph
and RH of less than 35 percent. An eastward progressing shortwave
will phase with an amplifying upper trough over the Eastern
Seaboard, cultivating an elongated surface low to develop east of
the Carolinas coastline. A strong 30-50 kt 700-850 mb jet is
expected to develop over central FL in the wake of the departing
low, yet expansive high cloud cover and increasing mid/low clouds
along the incoming front may prevent deeper mixing. However, in
sporadic areas that experience partly cloudy skies, wind gusts of up
to 30 mph across central FL could mix down to the surface,
exacerbating any new/existing fires. Wetting rainfall behind the
frontal passage should provide relief to the fire environment into
the overnight hours.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026/
...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern US
Saturday as southwesterly flow aloft also strengthens. This will
drive a cold front into the Gulf, though gusty winds and dry
conditions are expected ahead of it over parts of FL. To the west of
the upper trough, northwesterly flow will persist over the Plains
ahead of a ridge over the Great Basin. A dry cold front will move
southward across the northern Plains supporting dry and breezy
conditions into parts of the Dakotas/MT.
...FL...
Another day of dry and breezy conditions is expected for portions of
central and southern FL. Surface winds should be somewhat stronger
than Friday as the upper trough over the eastern US deepens and flow
aloft increases. Surface gusts of 10-20 mph are possible amid RH
below 35%. Area fuels remain quite dry with little recent rainfall
and ERC values above the 95th percentile. Fire-weather concerns
should end with the frontal passage and some light rainfall possible
into the evening and overnight.
...Northern Plains...
On the backside of the broader eastern US trough, a subtle shortwave
will support a weak surface cyclone along a cold front moving out
southern Canada. Gusty northwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected
with the front. With little surface moisture in place, afternoon RH
values below 20% are likely. Combined with dry fuels, the dry/breezy
conditions will likely support a few hours of elevated fire weather
concerns across southwestern ND, northwestern SD and southeastern
MT, where recent rainfall has been minimal and fuels remain dry.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 012137
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 091200Z
...Synopsis...
An amplifying upper trough across the eastern U.S. and deepening
surface low near the Carolina Coast will send a cold front and
associated rainfall southeastward over the weekend. This will
provide a temporary fire weather reprieve not only to Florida but to
much of the Southeast and portions of the Mid Atlantic where fuels
have been exceptionally dry. A deepening surface low traversing
south-central Canada should bring stronger west-northwest winds and
low RH to portions of the northern Plains on Day 3/Sunday. Dry and
breezy conditions return to the Southwest Day 3/Sunday and Southern
High Plains Day 4-5/Monday-Tuesday as upper-level troughing
gradually shifts into the region.
...Days 3-5/Sunday-Tuesday...
...Northern Plains...
Beneath an upper level shortwave trough, a surface low will begin to
deepen on Day 3/Sunday as it traverses south-central Canada. Surface
pressure gradients should tighten across much of the northern
Plains, promoting dry and breezy conditions ahead of a southward
progressing cold front and increasing cloud cover. 40% Critical
probabilities have been introduced to account for these conditions
amid very dry fuels.
...Southern Plains...
Increasing southwesterly flow aloft should overspread the Southwest
and Southern Plains as a lee surface trough develops across the
southern Plains early next week. This will support dry and breezy
conditions across the Southwest on Day 3/Sunday, with downslope
drying and enhanced winds evolving in the southern High Plains Day
4/Monday and Day 5/Tuesday. Preceding widespread rainfall in
addition to ongoing green up across the region should limit the
impact of an otherwise enhanced fire weather concern across portions
of the southern Plains and Southwest. However, in areas that did not
receive appreciable rainfall, fire weather concerns will reemerge
for east-central NM into parts of the TX Panhandle on Day 4/Monday
where 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Dry and
breezy conditions continue on Day 5/Tuesday for the southern Plains
as the upper trough moves overhead and a surface low develops over
Oklahoma. A cold front will traverse the region during the
morning/afternoon, though guidance ambiguity in timing of the front
arrival precludes the introduction of critical probabilities at this
time.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/01/2026
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