ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 271640

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1040 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

   Valid 271700Z - 281200Z

   ...Morning Update...
   Changes were made to the previous forecast to extend the Elevated
   fire risk along the southern Colorado Front Range. This morning, low
   RH values of 10-20% are present in the lee of the Rockies with
   sporadic gusts up to 40 mph extending to the Laramie Range. As the
   area approaches peak heating, deep mixing coupled with westerly
   downslope flow will support sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph and
   terrain-induced isolated gusts of 35-45 mph, supporting Elevated to
   locally critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. In central
   to east-central New Mexico, sustained winds are forecast to be much
   lighter than previous days. This morning, a few gusts of 20-30 mph
   were observed in Albuquerque and east of the Sandia Manzano
   Mountains. RH is expected to drop to 10-20% for a few hours this
   afternoon with sustained winds of 15-20 mph. These conditions
   overlapping dry fuels should support Elevated Fire Weather
   conditions today. 

   For parts of the northern Missouri Valley into the Corn Belt and
   Midwest, locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible for a
   few hours this afternoon. Morning surface RH values are gradually
   dropping between 30-40% and will likely decrease to 20-30% by peak
   heating. Ahead of an advancing cold front, broad sustained
   west-southwesterly surface winds of 10-20 mph are expected, possibly
   up to 30 mph in a localized area of northeastern Nebraska and
   northwestern Iowa. Given recent precipitation across the region,
   sporadic fine fuels may be receptive to fire, keeping fire weather
   concerns fairly localized. See the previous discussion for more
   information.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia/Wendt.. 02/27/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Mid-level ridging will remain in place across the western CONUS with
   northwesterly mid-level flow downstream of this feature. This will
   support another day of dry, downslope flow in the lee of the Rockies
   ahead of a southward surging cold front.

   ...Portions of eastern Wyoming into northeastern Colorado and the
   Nebraska Panhandle...
   Strong northwesterly flow in the mid-levels will lead to the
   enhancement of lee troughing across the central and northern High
   Plains as high pressure builds to the West. This will support a
   strong cross-terrain pressure gradient that will yield dry downslope
   flow in the lee of the central Rockies and Laramie Range, with
   sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph and isolated gusts of 35-45 mph
   expected (locally higher in terrain-favored areas). Deep, boundary
   layer mixing coupled with the dry downslope flow will simultaneously
   favor afternoon RH values falling into the 15-20% range (locally as
   low as 10%). With multiple days of strong, dry downslope winds
   preceding D1/Friday, fuels are expected to be receptive to fire.
   Given these factors, elevated to locally critical fire weather
   conditions are likely for at least a few hours across portions of
   eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle and southward toward the
   Palmer Divide this afternoon. 

   ...Portions of central into east-central New Mexico...
   Lower RH values of 10-15% are likely to extend farther south into
   portions of southeastern New Mexico and western Texas; however,
   winds are expected to remain light. The one exception will be across
   portions of central into east-central New Mexico where a band of
   modest northwesterly mid-level flow will support dry, downslope
   winds in the lee of the Sandia Manzano Mountains. Sustained westerly
   surface winds of 15-20 mph are expected to overlap very low RH
   values of 10-20% for at least a few hours this afternoon. Given
   warm, dry antecedent conditions, this overlap is expected to support
   Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon.

   ...Northern Plains into the Midwest...
   A southward advancing surface cold front will promote a strong
   surface pressure gradient across portions of the northern Plains
   into the western Corn Belt this afternoon. Widespread 20-30 mph
   sustained northwesterly surface winds ahead of this front are
   expected to overlap RH values of 20-30%. Farther south and east,
   lighter southwesterly winds of 10-20 mph are expected to overlap RH
   of 20-30% ahead of a surface pressure trough from southwestern
   Missouri into western Illinois. Given that fuels are expected to be
   only modestly receptive across the region, Elevated fire weather
   concerns should remain localized.