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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 141702
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 141700Z - 151200Z
No changes were made to the drawn Elevated and Isolated Dry Thunder
areas. As was previously mentioned, vegetation green up across
portions of the northern Plains is subduing otherwise critical fire
weather conditions, especially in Montana where sustained winds are
likely to exceed 30 mph once again today. Similarly, across portions
of the southern Plains, the greenness gradient (generally south and
east of the TX Panhandle) dominates the eastern extent of the
Elevated area. The latest forecast guidance maintains limited
precipitable water content amid a dry sub-cloud environment over
much of the TX and OK Panhandles. Thus, the threat of dry
thunderstorms remains in place this afternoon with potential
continuing at least a couple of hours after sunset over the eastern
TX Panhandle.
..Stearns.. 05/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1209 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough and associated stronger mid-level westerly
flow will push into the northern Plains while upper ridging slides
over the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a dry cold front extending
south of a central Canadian surface low will permit a breezy post
frontal environment, bringing widespread fire weather concerns to
the northern/central Plains. Farther south, tightening surface
pressure gradients east of the CO/NM higher terrain will promote
enhanced downslope flow and deep layer mixing. Increasing mid-level
moisture and subtle forcing associating with an approaching short
wave impulse could aid in high-based thunderstorm development across
portions of the OK/TX Panhandles.
...Northern Plains...
Strong post frontal westerly winds of 15-25 mph and RH of 20-30%
amid dry fuels will support an Elevated fire weather threat across
the Dakotas. Farther west, more pronounced deep-layer westerly flow
will yield sustained west winds of 30-45 mph across central and
eastern MT during peak afternoon heating. Limited RH reductions,
light precipitation over the last 24 hours, and green up across
southern MT should mitigate an otherwise critical fire weather
environment. Ahead of an eastward progressing cold front, strong
southerly winds of 20-25 mph (gusts up to 40 mph) will persist
through the afternoon hours across northwestern IA into western MN.
Despite modest RH values of 25-35%, a mixed fuelscape of partial
green up and sporadic dry fuels combined with very strong winds
could support fire spread. Thus, Elevated highlights have been
expanded to encompass this threat.
...Southwest and Southern High Plains...
Westerly downslope flow of 15-20 mph amid RH of 15-20% will support
Elevated fire weather concerns from far southeastern AZ into much of
southeastern NM and the southern Plains where delayed green up has
allowed fuels to remain receptive. Ascent associated with the
arrival of the mid-level perturbation alongside afternoon heating
and resultant instability should support showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the OK/TX Panhandles and adjacent CO/KS areas
this afternoon. Forecast soundings depict PWATs of 0.6-0.8" with a
prominent dry sub-cloud layer up to 3 km. This should limit
appreciable precipitation at the surface, allowing the threat of dry
thunderstorms to evolve. Gusty outflow winds and some lightning
ignitions are possible in existing dry fuels where an IsoDryT risk
has been maintained.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 141956
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...
The Critical area and coincident Elevated area located over southern
NM, portions of western TX, and far southwestern OK were both
expanded primarily to the west. This was in agreement with the
timing of the latest forecast guidance indicating stronger southwest
winds over the region. Across the far northern Plains and into the
Great Lakes region, the latest forecast guidance indicates strong
westerly winds aloft, continued well above normal surface
temperatures, and a resultant deeply mixed boundary layer.
Accordingly, the Elevated area was expanded eastward to account for
stronger winds over much of MN and northern WI. Additionally,
ongoing convection, potentially leading to ignitions, on Day
1/Thursday followed by dry and windy conditions on Day 2/Friday
could amplify this risk. Over the central High Plains in the
vicinity of Wyoming, the Elevated area was expanded to include
portions of northwestern CO as well as far southwestern SD and much
of the NE Panhandle.
..Stearns.. 05/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1211 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026/
...Synopsis...
Broadly zonal flow aloft with an embedded shortwave will traverse
the Upper Midwest on Friday. At the surface, a continued post
frontal environment beneath a departing deep surface low in Ontario
will promote strong westerly winds within a dry airmass across the
northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A mid-level impulse and emerging
lee surface low across the southern Plains will further enhance
downslope drying and breezy surface winds, supporting fire weather
concerns across southeastern NM into the TX Panhandle.
...Northern Plains...
Deep westerly flow aloft and tightening surface pressure gradients
beneath a departing Canadian surface low will encourage widespread
dry and breezy conditions. Westerly winds of up to 20 mph and RH
values of 25-30% support fire weather concerns across the region.
Adjustments to the Elevated risk may be needed in future outlooks as
precipitation continues into the early morning hours of Day
1/Thursday across portions of eastern MT.
...Southern Plains...
South of a developing lee surface low over western OK, enhanced
downslope winds of 15-20 mph will align with RH reductions to less
than 15% across southeastern NM into the southern TX Panhandle.
Elevated highlights have been introduced where these conditions
overlap dry and receptive fuels. Furthermore, a narrow region of
likely 20-25 mph winds and 10-15% RH (single digits locally) has
prompted the introduction of Critical highlights across the Caprock
and upper Rolling Plains.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 142203
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0503 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 221200Z
Nearly zonal flow will be in place across much of the eastern US on
Day 3/Saturday. Meanwhile, a trough will move over the Intermountain
West. By Day 5/Monday, this trough will center over the central
Rockies, before ejecting to the north and east across the central
Plains. This will present multiple consecutive days of likely
Critical fire weather over portions of the Southwest and southern
Plains. The pattern then flattens as next week progresses, leading
to less certainty of potential fire weather concerns given the
colder air across much of the CONUS in the wake of the trough.
...Southwest/Southern Plains/Southern Great Basin...
On Day 3/Saturday through Day 5/Monday, the aforementioned
significant middle-level trough will promote multiple consecutive
days of Elevated to Critical fire weather across much of the
Southwest and adjacent southern Plains and southern Great Basin.
Warm and dry antecedent conditions amid the above normal
temperatures associated with the recent ridging will precondition
the area for potential ignitions. Southwest to westerly winds
sustained at 20-30 mph will combine with single digit to low teen
RHs for several hours. Current forecast guidance suggests that
overnight RHs will struggle to rise above 30% over much of the
region, suggesting burn periods well into the nighttime hours.
On Day 6/Tuesday, as the trough begins to recede to the north,
stronger winds aloft will linger over New Mexico and combine with
dry surface conditions to promote some threat of critical weather
conditions over the region for yet another day.
...California...
On Day 4/Sunday, northwest flow on the back side of the trough as it
digs over the Great Basin will lead to strong (20 mph sustained)
northerly winds combined with afternoon RHs in the teens over the CA
Central Valley. Thus, given the anticipated dry fine fuels in place
amid the warm and dry antecedent conditions, the 40% probs were
maintained to account for the potential fire weather threat.
..Stearns.. 05/14/2026
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