|
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 140600
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO...EASTERN
COLORADO...PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN KANSAS...AND WEST
TEXAS...
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move out of the Pacific Northwest into the
Northern Rockies today, with strong westerly flow overspreading the
Rockies into the Central Plains. A lee cyclone is expected to
develop across eastern WY/CO and shift into Nebraska deepening
rapidly. Mass response with the deepening cyclone will result in
tightening of westerly surface gradients across the central/southern
High Plains and an extended period of Elevated to Critical (and
locally Extremely Critical) fire weather concerns.
Across the Front Range in Colorado and in the lee of the high
terrain in New Mexico, surface winds will be further enhanced in the
downslope regimes. Within these regions, relative humidity
reductions 10-15% will overlap sustained west to southwesterly winds
20-30 mph. Locally Extremely Critical fire weather conditions will
be possible in more favored downslope regions in the lee of the
Colorado Rockies, where winds may approach 40-50 mph at times.
Guidance continues to support the notion that Critical fire weather
conditions will spread further east into western Nebraska and
northwestern Kansas, where several fires are ongoing. As such a
broad Critical area was maintained from far western Texas into
western New Mexico/western Colorado to southwestern Wyoming and
eastward into western Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. Within these
regions, there will be potential for rapid fire spread with Elevated
to Critical conditions extending into the evening hours.
Broader Elevated concerns will extend into central NE/KS/OK and
southwest Texas where surface winds 10-20 mph will overlap relative
humidity reductions to around 15-25%.
..Thornton.. 03/14/2026
|
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 140631
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS...
...Synopsis...
Behind a departing low pressure system on D2/Sunday, strong
northwesterly flow will continue across the southern High Plains.
Elevated to Critical fire weather is likely to be ongoing at the
start of the period, continuing overnight from D1/Saturday.
Through the afternoon on Sunday, a cold front will shift southwards
across southern Kansas into the OK/TX Panhandles and eastern New
Mexico, bringing a shift from westerly to northerly winds which may
pose a risk with any ongoing fires. Ahead of the front, relative
humidity reductions around 10-15% will overlap sustained westerly
winds 20-25 mph. Though relative humidity may initially improve post
cold frontal passage, a secondary period of Elevated to Critical
conditions appears likely across the OK/TX Panhandles into the
afternoon/evening where relative humidity will drop near 15% again
overlapping north to northwesterly winds 20-25 mph. A large Critical
area was maintained with this outlook from central/eastern New
Mexico into Western Texas where highest confidence in Critical
conditions remains.
Broader Elevated fire weather concerns will extend into portions of
central Texas and Oklahoma, where afternoon relative humidity around
20-25% will overlap with sustained winds around 20 mph. Elevated
conditions will also extend into much of northern and western New
Mexico where fuels are expected to experience drying over the D1/D2
period.
..Thornton.. 03/14/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 132157
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0457 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 211200Z
Progressive zonal flow continues across the central US this weekend
transitioning into a higher amplitude pattern early next week
characterized by deep troughing over the East and a strong ridge
over the West. On Day 3/Sunday, an upper-level trough will dig
southward into the central and southern Rocky Mountains. This trough
will track through the Great Lakes region by the end of Day 4/Monday
before lifting northeast on Day 5/Tuesday. Simultaneously, a robust
upper-level ridge will amplify over the western CONUS. By
mid-to-late week, the upper high is forecast over southern Arizona,
with much above normal geopotential heights over much of the western
CONUS.
On Day 3/Sunday, strong northwest flow on the backside of the
upper-level trough will maintain a corridor of strong winds and
persistent dry air across almost all of New Mexico and much of west
Texas. Both of the 40% and 70% probability areas were expanded to
account for the stronger upper-level jet max overhead and the
tightening surface pressure gradient associated with the advancing
cold front. Elevated to critical conditions will be ongoing in the
morning across portions of the southern High Plains. Additionally,
portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and northeast New Mexico
may see two periods of elevated/critical conditions interrupted by
the frontal passage. The wind shift from westerly to northerly is of
concern, especially with any ongoing wildfires. Meanwhile, the
central and northern Plains will see a transition to much more
stable, post-frontal conditions with significantly cooler
temperatures, allowing for a brief few days of relief from recent
critical conditions.
On Day 4/Monday, breezy and dry conditions are expected to persist
across eastern New Mexico under northerly flow. While the airmass
remains dry, surface temperatures will be cooler and surface winds
are likely to remain below elevated thresholds. The 40% area was
expanded slightly over south Texas where northerly winds will
precede and overlap with dry air behind the cold front.
On Day 5/Tuesday, warmer temperatures return to the High Plains with
north to northwest upper-level flow over much of the central US.
With resultant increased boundary-layer mixing, another day of
widespread critical conditions will be possible over portions of the
southern Plains. Additionally, the post-frontal environment over
Georgia, Florida, and portions of the Carolinas, where fuels are
driest, will provide opportunity for locally elevated conditions.
This area will continue to be watched closely over the coming days.
Record temperatures and dry conditions will continue to cure fuels
over the course of several consecutive days across the southern half
of the western CONUS through the outlook period. Regardless of
winds, high vapor pressure deficits and low RH would suggest
extended burn periods in areas with receptive fuels.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/13/2026
|
|
