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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 191625
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
Valid 191700Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...Morning Update...
Critical highlights were shifted farther south into the Red River
Valley and North Texas for the Day 1 update. Poor overnight moisture
recovery across the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma combined with
west-northwesterly 20-25 mph winds (30-40 mph gusts) and 10-15
percent RH by peak heating will promote Critical fire weather
conditions this afternoon and evening. The observed OUN sounding
portrayed 50 knot winds just above the surface, so as daytime mixing
occurs, the region could see stronger localized wind gusts. A cold
front will pass over the Oklahoma Panhandle/NW Oklahoma late this
morning and afternoon gradually shifting winds northerly, bringing
in cooler temperatures and higher dewpoints leading to a reprieve in
fire weather conditions. Elevated highlights have also been extended
across Eastern New Mexico to account for observed westerly downslope
winds of 20-25 mph and 15-20 percent RH atop receptive fuels.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 02/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026/
...Synopsis...
The first in a series of mid-level impulses, embedded within a
broader upper troughing pattern, will overspread the central Plains
today, encouraging a surface low to track from the central Plains
toward the Great Lakes region. As this occurs, the combination of
dry downslope flow from the southern Rockies, and gradient flow
driven by the surface low, should promote warm, dry and windy
conditions ahead of a southward-surging cold front. Across the Texas
Panhandle into Oklahoma and Missouri, 20-25 mph sustained
west-northwesterly winds may coincide with 15 percent RH for at
least a few hours this afternoon. Critical highlights have been
maintained since these surface meteorological conditions will
overspread dry fuels. Some areas from north-central Texas into
Missouri have received appreciable rainfall accumulations over the
past week. Nonetheless, finer fuels have more recently experienced
dry conditions, potentially increasing their receptiveness to
wildfire spread. Farther south across western Texas, surface winds
should only peak in the 15-20 mph range, amid 20 percent RH,
warranting Elevated highlights.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 191938
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN
TEXAS...
...Southern High Plains...
An embedded mid-level short wave impulse and attendant 90+ kt jet
will eject into the Southern Plains Friday. The strong westerly flow
along with subsequent lee surface trough development will support
dry, downslope flow across much of Southern High Plains.
West-southwest winds of 20-25 mph with relative humidity dropping
into 15-20% range across eastern NM and west TX will yield critical
fire weather conditions for the region. Warmer and drier conditions
are expected across the Trans Pecos and TX Big Bend areas, where
afternoon relative humidity will likely fall below 10% by peak
heating. Expanded Critical Highlights into portions far west TX
where sustained westerly winds of around 20 mph, very low relative
humidity and receptive fuels align to support wildfire spread.
..Williams/Garcia.. 02/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026/
...Synopsis...
The next in a series of mid-level impulses embedded in broader upper
troughing will overspread the southern Plains, resulting in surface
low development across the southern High Plains tomorrow (Friday).
As the low tracks eastward, dry westerly flow will promote wildfire
spread conditions. The latest guidance consensus depicts 20-25 mph
sustained westerly surface winds coinciding with 15 percent RH by
afternoon peak heating, warranting the introduction of Critical
highlights.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 182143
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
Valid 201200Z - 261200Z
...Synopsis...
An embedded mid-level short wave and attendant jet arrives to the
Southern Plains by Day 3/Friday along with a related lee surface
trough evolving across eastern NM/TX Panhandle. Dry and breezy
conditions across the Southern Plains should keep a heightened fire
weather threat in place. As upper-level troughing shifts eastward, a
dry cold front sweeps across the Southern Plains bringing dry
northerly flow and fire weather concerns to southern TX Day
4/Saturday. Widespread rainfall across much of the Southeast should
temporarily alleviate fire weather concerns over the weekend.
Rainfall should be limited farther south across the Gulf Coast and
FL, with particular concern for southern FL where dry-post frontal
northerly flow could increase the fire weather threat for Day
6/Monday.
...Day 3/Friday - Southern Plains...
A pronounced mid-level jet and surface lee troughing across the
southern High Plains should support dry and breezy downslope
conditions across much of the region on Day 3/Friday. A corridor of
stronger west winds across northeastern NM and the western TX
Panhandle coinciding with enhanced downslope drying, will likely
yield Critical fire weather conditions for the area on Day 3/Friday
amid increasingly dry fuels and recent wildfires. A 70% critical
probability area has been added due to higher confidence in model
guidance. Farther south, dry westerly flow will keep the fire
weather threat elevated for much of eastern NM and western TX.
...Day 4/Saturday - Southern Texas...
Post frontal northerly winds behind a prominent dry cold front moves
into TX Day 4/Saturday. Heightened fire weather concerns should
exist across portions of central and southern TX where 40% critical
probabilities have been expanded.
...Day 6/Monday - Florida...
Deep layer northwesterly flow develops across the Southeast and FL
behind a surface cold front underlying an amplifying upper-level
trough across the Northeast. Widespread wetting rainfall from Day
5/Sunday is expected to remain north of the Gulf Coast, with minimal
precipitation across FL. The dry northerly flow along with dry fuels
should increase the fire weather threat particularly across the
southern FL Peninsula where 40% Critical probabilities have been
added.
...Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday...
Fire weather concerns could reemerge across portions of the central
and southern High Plains via dry return flow and increasing westerly
winds aloft as the upper-level ridge across the Intermountain West
breaks down. However, timing uncertainty of surface trough/cyclone
features limits predictability in the longer term with no inclusion
of critical probabilities at this time.
..Williams.. 02/18/2026
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