|
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 161706
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
Valid 161700Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into Western Oklahoma...
Strong northwesterly surface winds of 20-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph
are expected across portions of the southern Plains through this
afternoon. A dry, post frontal air mass will support relative
humidity as low as 15% across western OK and adjacent portions of
the TX/OK Panhandles. The alignment of dry and windy conditions
along with receptive fuels will promote critical fire weather
conditions through this afternoon. Critical highlights were slightly
extended to the south and southwest into portions of far
northwestern TX given latest short term model guidance and current
surface observations.
...Northeastern Colorado into Northwestern Kansas...
Elevated highlights were extended northwestward into much of eastern
CO and the CO Front Range. Cloud cover had remained minimal through
the mid-morning hours. Current observed wind speeds of 30-40 mph
with gusts 50-60 mph will persist through the afternoon. These winds
will combine with very dry air (dew points in the single digits and
minimum relative humidity as low as 15%) to promote an enhanced fire
weather threat across the area despite temperatures only rising into
the 30s and 40s, with receptive fuels in place.
...Southeast...
A very dry air mass is in place across the Southeast with dew points
currently in the single digits. Surface low pressure across the
Great Lakes will promote light south-southwesterly winds across the
region, although speeds are likely to remain limited to 10 mph or
less. Colder temperatures with highs in the 40s will be a mitigating
factor in a larger fire weather threat across the region today, but
localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible where winds
approach 15 mph and RH falls to around 20% this afternoon.
..Williams.. 01/16/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026/
...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level jet maximum will progress southward along the
Rockies/western edge of broad-scale eastern-CONUS troughing
throughout the day. As a surface low pressure system colocated with
the trough center moves eastward out of Wisconsin, a strong cold
front will continue to push eastward and southward across much of
the Great Plains and into the Midwest. Low relative humidity,
receptive fuels, and strong post-frontal surface winds will support
Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of the Texas and
Oklahoma panhandles, into western Oklahoma.
...Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into Western Oklahoma...
Post-frontal conditions in the vicinity of the Texas and Oklahoma
panhandles into western Oklahoma will result in surface wind speeds
of 20-25 MPH, gusting as high as 35-40 MPH. Relative humidity will
broadly range from 15-30%, with the higher values corresponding with
cooler post-frontal temperatures near the border with Kansas. With
seasonal ERCs largely above the 90th percentile, widespread Elevated
and a smaller area of Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast
for this afternoon. A slight westward expansion of the Critical
highlights is introduced in this forecast to reflect greater
confidence in the location of the strongest surface winds per recent
HREF guidance. Though surface temperatures in far southeastern
Colorado into southwestern Kansas will be cooler (near 40F), surface
winds will be much stronger, warranting at least Elevated
highlights.
...Northeastern Colorado into Northwestern Kansas...
Seasonal ERCs are well above the 90th percentile across the region,
with sustained surface winds of 40+ MPH (gusting 50-60 MPH)
expected. However, surface temperatures are expected to remain
cooler (mid 30s F) given a lack of downslope component to the winds.
Forecast middle and upper-level cloud cover will further suppress
surface warming during the afternoon. Though fire-weather concerns
may develop, several limiting factors should limit the spatial and
temporal extent of any potential Elevated highlights.
|
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 162001
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...Central/Southern Texas to the Gulf Coast...
Breezy north and northeast winds behind a strong cold front, along
with a markedly drier but cooler air mass in place will support
elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the Southern
Plains Saturday. North-northeast winds of around 15 mph (localized
20 mph) coinciding with relative humidity falling to below 15% in
some areas should align with receptive fuels (with above normal fuel
loading) to promote elevated fire weather conditions across
central/southern TX Saturday. A locally critical fire weather threat
will exist where sustained winds reach 20 mph near and east of the
Balcones Escarpment in south-central TX. However, cooler
temperatures in the upper 40s to 50s should mitigate a more
significant fire weather threat across the area.
...Central and Southern Plains...
Strong, albeit weaker than D1/Friday, northwesterly surface flow
under a pronounced mid-level jet is expected across the central High
Plains and southern Plains Saturday. Relative humidity will fall
below 15% within a very dry, polar continental air mass particularly
from the NE Panhandle, eastern CO, southward into the TX/OK
Panhandles. Temperatures struggling to rise above freezing should
somewhat mitigate a more significant fire weather threat.
..Williams.. 01/16/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026/
...Synopsis...
As a cold front advances into the Gulf late Friday into Saturday,
post-frontal gusty winds, low relative humidity, and receptive fuels
will warrant Elevated highlights across portions of central and
southern Texas.
...Portions of Central Texas to the Gulf Coast...
Post-frontal winds out of the north-northeast during the afternoon
on Saturday are expected to reach 15 MPH (gusting to 20), with
relative humidity between 15 and 20%. Current ERC fuels guidance has
fuels exceeding the maximum seasonal values across the region,
warranting at least Elevated fire-weather highlights.
...Central High Plains...
Strong post-frontal winds will continue across portions of the
Central High Plains -- particularly eastern Wyoming/Colorado into
western Kansas/Nebraska. These winds will be collocated with low
relative humidity and receptive fuels. However, surface temperatures
are expected to largely remain near or even below freezing during
the day Saturday. Some fire-weather concerns may be present during
the afternoon, though the near-freezing surface temperatures
preclude highlights at this time.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 162157
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 241200Z
...Synopsis...
A large scale troughing pattern across the eastern U.S. is likely to
remain in place through much of next week, with occasional embedded
mid-level short waves and cold fronts translating southeastward
within the broad west-northwest flow. Above normal temperatures and
dry conditions are likely to persist across much of the
Intermountain West under an upper-level ridge through at least the
middle of next week. Ensemble and longer term guidance depicts a
de-amplifying wave pattern emerging for the latter part of next week
which could allow more opportunities for rainfall across the West
but with appreciable timing/spatial uncertainty of cold fronts/dry
return flow events across the central/southern Plains. Precipitation
associated with a cold front and vigorous mid-level trough is
expected across much of the Southeast on Day 3/Sunday, temporarily
mitigating fire weather threat through at least mid week.
...Day 3/Sunday - Southern Plains...
Dry southwest flow is expected to develop across the southern Plains
as surface high pressure moves towards the TX Gulf Coast. Downslope
warming and drying along with breezy southwest surface winds could
bring a fire weather threat back to portions of northwest TX and
southern OK, where a 40% critical probability area was introduced.
Farther north, post-frontal winds from the northwest will impact the
central Plains, but cooler temperatures and uncertainty in RH
reductions could limit a broader fire weather concern.
..Williams.. 01/16/2026
|
|
