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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 250554

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1254 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN WYOMING
   INTO FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...

   ...Synopsis...
   Strong upper-level winds will remain across the northern CONUS
   today. A surface low/lee trough will develop in the central/northern
   Plains, extending southward through the High Plains as well. A
   strong cold front will move into the northern Plains into Thursday
   morning.

   ...Wyoming into far western Nebraska/South Dakota...
   Critical fire weather is expected by the afternoon as strong
   mid-level winds and an increasing surface pressure gradient promote
   20-25 mph winds (higher speeds within the terrain). RH will fall to
   around 15% amid downslope warming/drying.

   Adjacent portions of the northern Rockies and the central Plains
   will experience elevated fire weather. Winds will still be strong in
   the northern Rockies, but RH may not reach much below 20%. In the
   central Plains, a strengthening pressure gradient will increase
   winds to around 15 mph at least locally. RH will be 15-20% during
   the afternoon.

   ...Texas Panhandle/South Plains...
   The lee trough will promote increasing southerly surface winds by
   the afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph appear possible. On the western
   flank of northward returning moisture, RH will fall to 10-20%.

   ..Wendt.. 03/25/2026
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 250557

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1257 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE
   TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

   ...Synopsis...
   The strongest upper-level winds will persist within the northern
   tier states on Thursday. Some amplification of the upper ridge is
   expected in the West. Modest amplification of the upper trough over
   southeaster Canada is also expected. Cooler air will move into much
   of the CONUS by Friday morning.

   ...Central New Mexico...Texas Panhandle...northwest Oklahoma...
   A cutoff low currently off the southern California coast will move
   through the Southwest Wednesday and reach the southern Rockies/High
   Plains Thursday afternoon. This feature will not be overly strong,
   but will provide enhancement to the mid-level winds and help deepen
   a surface low in the High Plains. This will promote 20-25 mph
   surface winds. With very dry air remaining in the Southwest and
   moving eastward, localized single digit RH is possible. More
   broadly, 10-15% RH can be expected during the afternoon. Sustained
   critical fire weather is most likely in these areas.

   ...Central Oklahoma into Flint Hills...
   The exact degree of RH reductions within these areas remains
   uncertain due to some moisture returning northward. However, mostly
   clear skies are expected and warming temperatures (likely in the 90s
   F given the current frontal progression forecast) will support RH
   values of 20-30%. With the low-level jet centered over these
   regions, winds of 15-25 mph (and stronger gusts) will promote
   elevated to near critical fire weather conditions even with what
   could be marginal RH reductions. The cold front will eventually move
   southward and strong, gusty north winds will arrive in its wake.
   Timing of the front will be mid/late afternoon for Kansas with
   overnight into Friday morning for Oklahoma.

   ...Western Kansas...
   Uncertainty in terms of the duration of fire weather concerns is
   largest in this area. With the surface trough remaining here the
   longest, weaker winds are expected for at least part of the day.
   Ahead of the front, 15-20 mph may occur. Stronger northerly winds
   are expected behind the front. As the front moves southward through
   Wednesday into Thursday, some airmass modification appears probable
   and the temperature drop behind the front will be more gradual. This
   should allow for a secondary period of elevated to near critical
   fire weather during late afternoon/early evening.

   ...Eastern Great Basin into the Southwest...
   Ahead of a cold front, surface winds will increase across the
   eastern Great Basin to 15-25 mph (locally higher). Across the
   Southwest, weaker winds are expected due to the stronger mid-level
   winds displaced farther north. There, only 15 mph is anticipated.
   Elevated fire weather is forecast as fuels continue to dry.

   ..Wendt.. 03/25/2026


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 242141

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0441 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

   Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   An embedded short wave will propagate eastward within a largely
   zonal mid-level flow maxima across the northern CONUS amplifying
   before reaching the Great Lakes and Northeast by Days
   5-6/Saturday-Sunday. A more subtle mid-level perturbation moving
   into the Southern Plains on Day 3/Thursday along with a deepening
   lee surface cyclone and trailing cold front should support a broad
   fire weather threat across the Southwest and Southern Plains.
   Farther west, an upper-level ridge builds across the Western U.S.
   over the weekend, before a more progressive upper-level wave pattern
   evolves across the contiguous U.S. for next week, likely bringing
   much needed increasing chances for precipitation across the
   Intermountain West.

   ...Day 3/Thursday - Upper Colorado River Basin and Southern
   Plains...
   The approaching mid-level short wave and an evolving surface cyclone
   sliding southward into the southern High Plains will support a dry,
   downslope regime across much of the region. Alignment of breezy
   west-southwest winds, low humidity, well above normal temperatures
   south of the advancing cold front is most likely across eastern NM
   into the TX Panhandle where a 70% critical area remains. The
   surrounding 40% critical probability area was expanded into much of
   the Upper CO River Basin where accelerated drying of fuels has been
   observed amid successive days of record/near record setting high
   temperatures over the past several days across the West. The cold
   front will quickly sweep southward from NE Thursday morning,
   reaching well into TX by Thursday evening. This should pose at least
   an initial fire weather concern for potentially active fires with
   abrupt northward wind shifts expected. North-northeast winds behind
   the front will be strong, although colder temperatures and higher
   relative humidity should mitigate the overall fire weather threat
   overnight.

   ...Day 4/Friday - Central and Southern Plains...
   A dry, post-frontal environment should encompass portions of the
   central and southern Plains on Day 3/Friday. Despite cooler
   temperatures, gusty north-northeast winds and low relative humidity
   during peak heating amid very dry fuels will support at least an
   elevated fire weather threat across southern KS, OK, into portions
   of northwest TX and Panhandle regions, where a 40% critical
   probability area was introduced.

   ...Day 5/Saturday - Central Plains and Portions of the Southeast...
   A dry return flow pattern emerges across the Central Plains by Day
   5/Saturday as surface high pressure slides into the OH River Valley
   and lee troughing develops across the northern High Plains. This
   should support a corridor of pronounced southerly flow across
   portions of western KS/far eastern CO into NE and southern SD.
   Widespread rainfall associated with the cold frontal passage on Days
   3/Thursday is not expected with an expansive dry fuelscape remaining
   largely intact. Dry, post-frontal northeasterly flow should enhance
   fire weather concerns across portions of the Southeast where fuels
   remain dry amid ongoing drought. Slight expansions were made to both
   40% critical probability areas given latest model guidance
   consensus.

   ...Day 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday...
   Forecast guidance continues to suggest upper-level troughing
   developing across the West early next week. Initial surge of
   mid/upper level Pacific moisture within the increasingly southwest
   flow and daytime instability over higher terrain could bring
   thunderstorms back into the CO River Basin. However, deeper Pacific
   moisture along with the arrival of more pronounced and progressive
   mid-level trough could provide a better opportunity for more
   widespread rain and higher elevation snow to much of the West by Day
   8/Tuesday, temporarily reducing overall fire weather concerns.
   Similarly, increasing boundary layer moisture streaming northward
   into the southern and central Plains reduces predictability in
   overlap of breezy and dry conditions precluding introduction of
   critical probabilities.

   ..Williams.. 03/24/2026
      




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