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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 151632
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 151700Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS
AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
A 70-80 knot mid-level jet at the base of a progressive trough
across the central U.S. is moving into the Southern Plains. At the
surface, a powerful cold front and associated tighter pressure
gradients extend southwestward into the Southern Plains from a
strong low over the lower MO River Valley. A slight extension of
Critical highlights were made into portions of the TX Hill Country
based on latest model guidance.
...New Mexico, Western Texas and Far Southwestern Oklahoma...
Very poor relative humidity recoveries of 15-25% were observed this
morning across much of NM and West TX, with current relative
humidity values now between 10-15%. The favorable downslope
environment and very dry boundary layer ahead of the advancing cold
front will continue to support Critical fire weather conditions
across much of West TX and NM as the day progresses, including
west-northwest winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts and relative
humidity in the single digits in some locations. Localized Extremely
Critical fire weather conditions are still possible across portions
of central New Mexico primarily along and east of the Manzano Range
under the mid-level jet max, where fuels are marginally drier.
However, duration and extent of northwest winds of 30-40 mph with
higher gusts and alignment of relative humidity below 15% should be
limited as cooler temperatures and improvements in relative humidity
ensue this afternoon as the cold front moves through the region.
Expect abrupt northerly wind shifts as the cold front quickly
advances southward across the Southern Plains through today.
Although brief improvements in relative humidity have been apparent
behind the front through this morning, a very dry, post-frontal air
mass with dewpoints around 0 F amid daytime boundary layer mixing
could result in a secondary drop of relative humidity back into the
15-20% range this afternoon. This should be most apparent across
Northwest TX where the driest post-frontal conditions and higher
winds of 25-35 mph align and active fires have been observed.
..Williams.. 03/15/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026/
...Synopsis...
A strengthening and dynamic low pressure system will move eastward
through the Missouri/Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes today. On the
backside of this low, strong westerly gradients will support
enhancement of westerly surface flow ahead of a southward moving
cold front across the southern High Plains. Behind the front, a
shift to strong north to northwesterly flow is likely. Multiple
periods of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be
possible across much of New Mexico into western and southwestern
Oklahoma.
...New Mexico, Western Texas and Far Southwestern Oklahoma...
Overnight recoveries across New Mexico and western Texas are
expected to be poor. As of 05z, observed relative humidity is in the
single digits to teens, with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s
and continued gusty winds. Forecast maximum overnight relative
humidity through the morning ranges around 25-30%. It is likely that
Elevated to Critical conditions will be ongoing at the start of the
new D1 period this morning. Through the afternoon ahead of the cold
front across New Mexico and southwest/west Texas, increasing
west-northwest winds at 20-30 mph will overlap relative humidity
reductions to around 10-15%. Localized Extremely Critical fire
weather conditions are possible across portions of central New
Mexico along and east of the Sandia Manzano Range under a 80-90 knot
mid-level jet max at the base of an advancing trough. The resultant
enhanced downslope regime where west-northwest winds of 30-40 mph
with higher gusts coincide with relative humidity falling to around
10% should align with receptive fuels (ERC in the 80-90th percentile
range) to support this localized Extremely Critical threat, although
uncertainty in cloud cover and coverage precludes introduction of
Extremely Critical Highlights for this update.
Behind the cold front passage across the Texas Panhandle into
southwestern Oklahoma, temperatures cool and relative humidity will
briefly improve with a shift in the winds from westerly to
northerly. Deteriorating fire weather conditions will reemerge a few
hours later as surface dewpoints fall close to 0 F across the
southern High Plains. This will result in 15% or lower relative
humidity by peak afternoon heating amid 25-35 mph north/northwest
winds. This could have a considerable impact on active wildfires in
receptive fuels should they occur, particularly across Northwest TX
where the driest post-frontal conditions and higher winds align. The
overall fire weather threat shifts into Southern TX/Lower Rio Grande
Valley region Sunday evening, potentially lingering into the
overnight hours.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 150553
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...Synopsis...
Post frontal northerly flow will shift into southern/central Texas
for D2/Monday, with Elevated fire weather conditions expected. Dry
return flow will bring Elevated fire weather concerns across eastern
New Mexico into western Texas as a high builds across the southern
Plains and moves into the lower Mississippi River Valley.
...Eastern New Mexico into west Texas...
Across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, south to southeast
winds 10-15 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around
15-20%. An Elevated was maintained with this outlook to support this
threat. Fuels in this region are expected to be critically dry after
multiple days of dry/wind conditions.
...Southern/Central Texas...
Behind the southward advancing cold front, relative humidity
reductions to around 15-25% (locally around 10% in south Texas) will
overlap sustained north winds at 10-20 mph across portions of the
south Texas Brush Country to the Rio Grande Valley and across the
Middle Texas Coast. The D3 40 percent was maintained and expanded
across the coast with this update. Fuels across the south Texas
Brush Country are critically dry, with ERCs forecast to be around
the 75-90th percentile. Fuels across the middle Texas coast region
are more marginal but are forecast to be around the 50-75th
percentile by D2/Monday.
..Thornton.. 03/15/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 142150
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0450 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 221200Z
...Synopsis...
An intense mid-level trough and associated widespread precipitation
will lift out the eastern U.S. by midweek while an anomalous
upper-level ridge and corresponding hot and dry conditions evolves
across the Southwest. Dry post-frontal flow will continue to bring a
fire weather threat to far southern TX on D3/Monday, with a
subsequent dry return flow event emerging across the Southern Plains
D4/Tuesday. Abnormally high temperatures and dry conditions will aid
in drying fuels across much of the Southwest through next week.
...Day 3/Monday - Southern High Plains and Southern Texas...
Post-frontal northerly winds and low relative humidity will support
a fire weather threat across southern TX from D2/Sunday into
D3/Monday. A 40% probability was expanded northward based on latest
model guidance. A modest dry return flow event is expected to
commence across eastern NM and West TX as high pressure settles into
the MS River Valley. Breezy south winds and low daytime relative
humidity (including limited overnight recoveries from the D2/Monday
period) should support elevated fire weather concerns across
portions of eastern NM and western TX where a 40% critical
probability has been introduced.
...Day 4/Tuesday - Southern Plains...
Broad northwest flow aloft along with expanding lee surface
troughing across the central/northern Plains will promote an
expanded region of southwesterly winds across the Southern Plains on
D4/Tuesday. The dry and breezy conditions along with rebounding
temperatures should bring at least elevated fire weather conditions
to much of western TX and eastern NM, with an expansion of 40%
critical probabilities made into western OK.
...Day 5/Wednesday - Central High Plains...
Persistent northwest flow aloft and surface troughing across the
Plains should support dry and breezy downslope conditions across
southeastern WY, northeastern CO and portions of the NE Panhandle on
D5/Wednesday. The effects of light precipitation early next week
should be transient across southeastern WY and vicinity, with near
record high temperatures returning to the central High Plains by
midweek. 40% critical probabilities have been added where receptive
fuels are expected to remain.
...Days 6-8/Thursday-Saturday...
Record high temperatures across much of the West are expected under
an amplifying and highly anomalous upper-level ridge. Very dry
conditions are expected, but lighter winds should mitigate a broader
fire weather threat later next week. The primary impact will be a
potential rapid drying of fuels across the West and High Plains
regions.
..Williams.. 03/14/2026
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