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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 271627
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026
Valid 271700Z - 281200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO WESTERN TEXAS...
Some slight expansion of Critical Highlights were made across
central and southeastern NM into far west TX, primarily for wind
prone areas in the lee of the Sandia Manzano Mountains and Guadalupe
Mountains in southeastern NM and far west TX. A robust 55-65 knot
mid-level jet remains over the Southwest and Southern Plains, while
current surface analysis shows a trough and associated cold front
extending southwestward from a surface low approaching the Upper
Midwest. Dry, downslope-enhanced westerly flow corridors of 15-20
mph south of the cold front will support an enhanced fire weather
threat across portions eastern NM and western TX through the
afternoon. The persistent downslope regime inhibited overnight RH
recoveries, with minimum RH reductions of around 10% likely across
southeastern NM into far west and northwestern TX by afternoon peak
heating. These fire-effective weather conditions and receptive fuels
will promote a higher potential for wildfire spread.
..Williams.. 04/27/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026/
...Synopsis...
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected this
afternoon across the southern High Plains. Early-morning surface
observations show that a very dry air mass resides over the
Southwest and southern High Plains with dewpoints in the 15-25 F
range for most locations. This air mass resulted in RH minimums
generally near 10% yesterday, and with no moisture recovery expected
over the next 24-48 hours, similar RH values are anticipated this
afternoon.
Gradient winds will generally increase to 15-20 mph across the
region through late morning and early afternoon before gradually
abating by early evening as a surface cyclone drifts towards the MS
Valley/Midwest region. Critical conditions appear most likely
roughly along the I-40 corridor and downwind of the Sacramento
Mountains. Here, residual belts of 20-30 mph low-level flow within
the boundary layer will help support sustained winds closer to 20
mph with gusts up to 30-35 mph. Given dry conditions over preceding
days and recent new fire activity, fuels will support some degree of
fire spread.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 271936
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
WESTERN TEXAS...
...Southern Plains...
Deep layer westerly flow under a mid-level jet over the Southwest
and Southern Plains aided by enhanced downslope drying is still
expected to promote a broad fire weather threat across much of NM,
south-central CO and west TX Tuesday. Widespread west to southwest
winds of around 15 mph coupled with RH falling to 10-20% amid dry
fuels will increase fire spread potential amid receptive fuels. More
intense wind belts of 20-25 mph aligning with RH reductions close to
10% will yield critical fire weather conditions across east-central
and southeastern NM into adjacent portions of TX. Minor adjustments
to Critical and surrounding Elevated Highlights were made given
latest forecast guidance.
...Upstate New York and Western Vermont...
Increasing low-level southerly flow ahead of surface trough and cold
front will evolve across the Northeast Tuesday. Mid and upper-level
cloud cover from convection across the Midwest/Ohio River Valley
today will overspread the region tonight into Tuesday. Despite the
cloud cover, tightening surface pressure gradients will support a
modest southerly wind of 10-15 mph, with localized/terrain enhanced
20 mph corridors likely. The stronger southerly winds along with RH
reductions of 25-35% (locally 20%) are expected by early afternoon.
These dry and breezy conditions will align with receptive fuels to
promote an enhanced fire weather concern across upstate NY and
western VT, where Elevated Highlights have been introduced.
..Williams.. 04/27/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026/
...Synopsis...
Critical fire weather conditions will continue into Tuesday across
parts of eastern NM and western TX. Early-morning water-vapor
imagery depicts a low-amplitude upper wave over central CA. This
feature will quickly progress eastward into the Southwest over the
next 48 hours, which will result in surface pressure falls and
increasing westerly gradient winds across the southern High Plains
Tuesday afternoon.
Latest forecast consensus is that wind speeds will generally
increase into the 15-20 mph range for most of the region. Given an
antecedent dry air mass and several preceding days of dry/windy
conditions, fuels will remain stressed through Tuesday and should
support some degree of fire spread. Additionally, increasing
downslope flow will maintain dry conditions with RH minimums in the
10-20% range likely. Critical fire weather conditions appear most
probable in the lee of the more prominent southern Rockies mountain
ranges where terrain enhancement of flow under the upper jet will
promote sustained winds closer to 20-25 mph.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 272113
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0413 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026
Valid 291200Z - 051200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing moves into the eastern U.S. for the latter
part of the week while a cold front a parent surface low shifts off
the Eastern Seaboard by Day 4/Thursday. Dry westerly flow south of
the advancing cold front should bring a fire weather threat to
portions of southern GA and northern FL on Day 3/Wednesday where
fuels remain dry, although some rainfall is expected to temporarily
alleviate fire weather concerns on Day 4/Thursday. Farther west, a
Pacific upper-level trough advances towards Baja CA midweek. Robust
mid-level flow ahead of this trough will bolster a downslope regime,
allowing for continued fire weather concerns across portions of the
Southwest on Day 3/Wednesday. Widespread wetting rains are expected
across much of the Southern Plains as the Pacific trough moves into
the Southwest on Day 5/Thursday. Most of the eastern U.S. is
expected to receive rainfall through the week, reducing overall fire
weather concerns, although remaining dry pockets and thus receptive
fuels could remain particularly across central and northern Plains
and portions of the Southeast.
...Day 3/Wednesday...
...Southwest...
Enhanced mid-level flow will continue over the Southwest region
while a surface lee trough develops across the southern High Plains.
A modified, post frontal air mass filtering into OK, TX and eastern
NM will limit fire weather concerns across the southern High Plains,
with dry and breezy conditions impacting areas mainly along and west
of the central NM mountain ranges. 40% critical probabilities were
introduced across much of central and western NM into far eastern
AZ.
...Southeast...
Increasing west/southwest winds of 10-15 mph, south of a surface
trough migrating into the upper OH River Valley, should evolve
across portions of the Southeast on Day 3/Wednesday. Delayed Gulf
moisture return amid an existing dry boundary layer should support
minimum RH reductions of 20-30% across portions of southern GA into
northern FL by Wednesday afternoon. Fuels remain quite receptive
with ongoing active fires in the region. The dry and breezy
conditions along with a receptive fuel environment should yield
enhanced fire weather threat across southern GA and northern FL,
where 40% critical probabilities have been added.
..Williams.. 04/27/2026
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