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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 251647
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1047 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 251700Z - 261200Z
Increasing westerly flow aloft entering the central U.S. along with
a deepening lee trough extending southward into the Southern Plains
will promote enhanced downslope winds across the portions of the
central and southern High Plains through this afternoon. Increased
but still diffuse boundary layer moisture ushered in from the
Pacific within deep-layer southwest flow will limit RH reductions to
20-25% across the TX Panhandle and vicinity. However, west-southwest
winds of 15 mph (locally 20 mph) amid dry fuels and abnormally warm
temperatures in the 70s and lower 80s should still support elevated
fire weather conditions for the area through the afternoon. Only
minor adjustments were made to existing Elevated highlights.
..Williams.. 12/25/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025/
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will prevail over the central CONUS as a mid-level
trough over the Interior West de-amplifies, with embedded
perturbations impinging on the Rockies today. This will support the
eastward progression of a surface low over the northern Plains,
which in turn will lead to dry downslope flow along the lee of the
Rockies. By afternoon widespread 10-15 mph sustained westerly
surface winds will generally coincide with 15-25 percent RH.
Elevated highlights are in place across portions of the Texas
Panhandle and immediate surrounding areas, where the best overlap of
15+ mph winds, 15-20 percent RH, and dry fuels should occur.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 251941
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...Colorado Front Range...
Deep layer westerly flow should support modest downslope winds of
15-20 mph (locally 20-30 mph in favored gaps) across the CO Front
Range Friday. Relative humidity dropping into the 10-15% range, dry
fuels and the breezy west winds should bring an elevated fire
weather threat to the area Friday afternoon. However, additional
upper-level cloud cover in the lee of the Rockies could inhibit
boundary layer mixing and wind speeds across flatter terrain to a
degree, confining stronger winds and overall fire weather threat
closer to the Front Range. Elevated highlights were extended
northward to cover this increased fire potential.
...Southern High Plains...
A drier air mass should be in place across the southern High Plains
for Friday, aided by a persistent downslope regime. A surface low
progressing eastward into the Ohio River Valley will result in a
lower surface pressure gradient magnitude across the southern
Plains. Although slightly lower wind speeds are expected overall,
sustained west-southwest winds of around 15 mph are likely across
the TX/OK Panhandles and northeastern NM. These winds should align
with minimum RH close to 15% and dry fuels to promote an elevated
fire weather threat.
..Williams.. 12/25/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025/
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will gradually shunt eastward from the Plains to the
Midwest on Friday as an upper trough impinges on the Rockies. At the
surface, lee troughing will intensify over the Plains, leading to
another day of at least modestly dry downslope flow along the High
Plains. Similar to Day 1, Elevated highlights have been introduced
for the Texas Panhandle and surrounding areas. Here, 15+ mph
sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 20 percent RH,
atop fuels that continue to cure given dry air and longer term lack
of rainfall.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 252128
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid-level jet moving into the Southwest along with lee troughing
across the Central Plains will support dry downslope flow and
potential fire weather concerns across portions of the southern High
Plains Day 3/Saturday. A positively tilted upper trough should move
and deepen into the eastern U.S. through early next week. A
corresponding strong cold front will erode the recent abnormally
warm temperatures across much of the central and eastern CONUS
through Day 6/Tuesday. Dry, post-frontal flow could support an
increased fire weather threat mainly across the Southern Plains
where minimal rainfall is expected. An evolving upper-level ridge
should bring warming temperatures and dry conditions to the West
through midweek.
...Day 3/Saturday - Southern High Plains...
Fire weather threat is likely to remain across portions of the TX/OK
Panhandles and adjacent areas owing to persistent westerly flow
aloft and breezy west-southwest winds in response to lee troughing
across the Central Plains. Some uncertainty exists regarding
magnitude of surface drying with additional cloud cover hindering
boundary layer mixing. However, with multiple preceding days of
abnormally warm temperatures and multi-week rainfall deficits, fuels
could remain receptive to spread within the breezy west-southwest
winds despite limited RH reductions. Thus, a 40 percent critical
area remains for the TX/OK Panhandles into southeast CO.
..Days 4-8/Sunday-Thursday...
Primary effective fire weather feature will be a cold front sweeping
across much of the central/eastern CONUS early next week beginning
Day 4/Sunday. Latest model guidance still depicts some inhibiting
factors that could reduce fire weather impacts. Expansive cloud
cover and some precipitation in addition to rapidly falling
temperatures within post frontal flow could limit a more significant
fire weather threat across much of the South and Southeast. Less
expected rainfall across the Southern Plains could support pockets
of drier fuels but uncertainty in rainfall distribution precludes
introduction of critical probabilities for Sunday and Monday.
..Williams.. 12/25/2025
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