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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 241625

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1125 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

   Valid 241700Z - 251200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO FRONT
   RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...

   ...Southwest and Southern/Central Plains...
   No changes to Critical highlights were made across CO. Poor
   overnight relative humidity recoveries were noted in surface
   observations across the central and southern High Plains, even more
   so across the central and southeastern NM where RH failed to reach
   25%. A lee surface cyclone across eastern CO and southward extending
   trough into the central High Plains, coupled with modest deep layer
   westerly flow will contribute to dry and breezy conditions through
   the afternoon. Downslope drying and enhanced winds from the west and
   southwest of 15-25 mph are likely across the central and southern
   High Plains, with the driest boundary layer conditions during peak
   heating across eastern CO where single digit RH values are likely.
   These atmospheric conditions combined with very dry fuels will bring
   critical fire weather conditions to portions of central and much of
   eastern CO today. Locally critical thresholds are possible (20 mph
   west winds and RH of 10-15%) in favored terrain gaps and in the
   immediate lee of the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains
   across eastern NM.

   A slight westward extension of broader Elevated highlights across
   much of the Southwest was incorporated into portions of the Grand
   Canyon and AZ Strip areas. Above average ERC values remain across
   the northwestern AZ, with several days of drying contributing to
   increased fuel receptivity. Southwest winds of 15-20 mph and
   relative humidity in the 15-20% range will bring an elevated fire
   weather threat to the area this afternoon.

   See previous discussion for additional forecast details.

   ..Williams.. 04/24/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   The upper-level ridge situated over the eastern U.S. is expected to
   dampen, giving way to a predominantly zonal flow pattern across the
   southern tier of the CONUS. Simultaneously, a broad upper-level
   trough will remain anchored over the north-central U.S. near the
   international border. This setup will maintain a very breezy and
   persistently arid environment through the conclusion of the work
   week across the Southwest and the central/southern High Plains.

   ...Southwest and Southern/Central Plains...
   Critical fire weather conditions have been highlighted for the
   Colorado Rockies and the neighboring High Plains, where latest
   forecast guidance indicates a high likelihood of potent winds
   coupled with low humidity. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis over
   eastern Colorado will further enhance downslope winds along the
   Front Range, while southwesterly winds prevail across the eastern
   plains. Robust vertical mixing during peak heating is forecast to
   descend 15-25 mph sustained winds to the surface. When combined with
   relative humidity levels falling to 10-15% (and locally into the
   single digits), these conditions will impact exceptionally dry fuels
   already stressed by a multi-day stretch of fire weather activity.

   While increasing cloud cover late in the day may offer some minor
   mitigation of the threat before dusk, the fire environment remains
   heightened. Consequently, Elevated highlights include much of the
   Southwest and include the Four Corners region through western
   Colorado. In these areas, westerly winds of 15-20 mph and humidity
   levels below 20% will coincide with ERCs reaching the 75th to 90th
   percentile.

   ...Carolinas...
   As the eastern CONUS ridge breaks down, breezy westerly surface
   winds (remaining under 10 mph sustained) can be expected over much
   of the Carolinas today. While these conditions will not meet
   criteria for elevated conditions, continued offshore flow will
   likely result in RHs falling below 20% amid above-normal
   temperatures over already dry fuels, keeping the fire environment
   primed.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 240557

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1257 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A broad, large-scale upper level trough will be anchored near the
   international border over the central US through the weekend. To the
   east, the prevailing upper-level ridge will collapse on Day
   2/Saturday as an approaching mid-level shortwave trough triggers
   widespread precipitation over the Midwest and Appalachians. This
   change is expected to provide some relief to the critically dry
   fuels over these regions. However, for areas bypassed by appreciable
   rainfall (especially east of the southern Appalachians), the fire
   risk posed by lingering drought conditions will persist.

   ...Southern Plains into portions of the Southwest...
   Zonal flow aloft will remain in place across the Southwest on
   Saturday, sustaining very breezy and dry conditions. Following
   several consecutive days of heightened fire weather, the fuel
   environment remains highly stressed, especially over northern
   extents of the drawn area. Westerly downslope winds of 15-20 mph
   will coincide with relative humidity values of 10-20% over receptive
   fuels, further aggravating the fire risk. Consequently, an Elevated
   area exists for Day 2/Saturday across much of New Mexico, southeast
   Arizona, and portions of west Texas where fuels are receptive. While
   the dryline is expected to surge farther east across
   southwest/central Texas, fuel conditions near and south/east of
   Midland appear to be less receptive overall. However, this event
   will work to dry fuels over this region and may promote future risk
   across this area.

   ..Stearns/Moore.. 04/24/2026


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 232110

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0410 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

   Valid 251200Z - 011200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A large scale upper trough will persist over the central U.S. and
   Canada border through Day 4/Sunday. An upper ridge over the eastern
   U.S. will break down as a mid-level shortwave approaches on Day
   3/Saturday and widespread precipitation chances return, bringing
   much needed relief to exceptionally dry fuels across the Piedmont
   and Southeast. A secondary shortwave trough will move into the
   Southwest on Day 4/Sunday with increasing southwest flow aloft,
   inducing lee cyclogenesis over the central Plains. This pattern
   change will bring widespread chances for precipitation across
   portions of the High Plains into the Upper Midwest and Mid-South
   through Day 6/Tuesday. However, in areas that do not see appreciable
   rainfall, fire weather concerns are expected to linger. Towards the
   end of the forecast period, an additional low-amplitude trough is
   forecast to approach the southwestern U.S. Given the overall
   pattern, fire weather conditions should persist where fuels remain
   receptive.

   ...Day 3/Saturday and Day 4/Sunday - Southern Plains into portions
   of the Southwest...
   As upper troughing persists across the north-central U.S., strong
   zonal flow over the Southwest will encourage very breezy and
   continued dry conditions on Day 3/Saturday. With preceding days of
   Critical fire weather conditions, westerly downslope flow of 15-20
   mph and 10-15 percent RH atop dry fuels will further exacerbate the
   fire environment, supportive of 40% Critical probabilities on Day
   3/Saturday. A strong mid-level disturbance is forecast to cross over
   the High Plains on Day 4/Sunday, resulting in lee cyclogenesis over
   portions of eastern CO and western KS. Behind an emerging dryline,
   westerly downslope flow is expected to promote very strong winds and
   critically low RH overlapping a dry fuelscape. Both 40% and 70%
   Critical probabilities have been maintained to encompass the
   expansive fire weather threat. 

   As the upper trough shifts east across the Midwest, a dry airmass
   will persist over the Southwest and southern Plains early next week.
   Breezy conditions may emerge in advance of an approaching upper
   trough later in the forecast period, albeit model guidance varies in
   the timing and strength of the overall upper pattern. Thus, guidance
   ambiguity precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/23/2026
      




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