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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 311658
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025
Valid 311700Z - 011200Z
...Southeast and Florida...
Elevated highlights were removed for portions of southern GA and the
FL Panhandle as light winds less than 10 mph and marginal fuel
dryness limits a broader fire weather threat for this area. Elevated
highlights continue for the eastern FL Peninsula, much of GA and the
Carolinas as dry conditions with RH falling as low as 20-25 percent
this afternoon amid a dry continental air mass. See previous
discussion for more details.
...Central/Southern High Plains...
Dry, downslope flow continues across the southern and central High
Plains, supporting low relative humidity in the 15-25% range this
afternoon within the region. However, relatively weak northwest flow
aloft and a diffuse surface pressure gradient will present a more
localized elevated fire weather threat just leeward of the
central/southern Rockies this afternoon. West-northwest winds of 15
mph and RH dropping to around 15% are expected, but marginal fuel
dryness should limit a more substantial wildfire potential.
..Williams.. 12/31/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025/
...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough will progress south-southeastward
while amplifying over the Northeast today, supporting surface
troughing along the East Coast as surface high pressure overspreads
the Midwest. Dry offshore flow should occur by afternoon peak
heating from the Carolinas to the Florida Peninsula. 10 mph
sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 25-35 percent RH will
encourage localized wildfire-spread potential amid dry fuels, with
Elevated highlights remaining in place. Surface lee troughing across
the Plains will encourage breezy downslope conditions along the
central and southern High Plains, though RH appears too high for
Elevated conditions at this time.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 311956
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Southern Plains...
A subtle mid-level impulse arriving to the southern Rockies along
with an incipient lee trough/low development across eastern CO and
the TX/OK Panhandles will support increasing west to southwest winds
across much of central and northwestern TX/eastern NM Thursday.
Westerly surface winds will be maximized across eastern NM and far
west TX by Thursday afternoon, but also accompanied by a
considerable rise in relative humidity and cloud cover as Pacific
moisture intrudes in from the Southwest. Brief and localized
elevated fire weather conditions where west-southwest winds of 15
mph amid a narrow corridor of relative humidity of 15-20% (locally
10%) align are possible across portions of the TX Panhandle and
Northwest TX, prior to the influx of increased lower-level moisture
through the afternoon.
..Williams.. 12/31/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025/
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge over the Plains states will gradually flatten through
the day tomorrow (Thursday) as a mid-level impulse impinges on the
southern Rockies. Similar to Day 1, some dry downslope flow is
possible along the lee of the Rockies, over the central and southern
High Plains, with RH dipping below 20 percent in spots. Still,
forecast surface wind fields should not be overly strong, so
wildfire-spread potential should remain localized over the High
Plains. Likewise, modestly dry conditions will persist along the
Southeast Atlantic coastline, but the lack of an appreciable surface
wind field precludes fire weather highlights, though wildfire-spread
potential will locally be non-zero.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 312152
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025
Valid 021200Z - 081200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid-level impulse and associated wind maxima moving into the
Southern Plains along with a surface cyclone across the TX/OK Red
River Valley should bring elevated winds to much of southern NM, and
western/central TX on Day 3/Friday. As the mid-level trough and
surface low move eastward into the Southeast, richer boundary layer
moisture should bring more widespread, needed rainfall to the
region. Low amplitude ridging across the central U.S. will persist
through early next week, reintroducing well above normal
temperatures maintaining dry conditions across the Great Plains. Lee
trough development across the Great Plains could present an
increased fire weather threat across portions of the Southern Plains
on Day 6/Monday.
...Day 3/Friday - Texas...
Breezy west/northwest winds supported by a deepening surface low
across northern TX under a mid-level jet max are expected across NM
and much of western and central TX Day 3/Friday. Limited RH
reductions should reduce a higher end fire weather threat, but clear
skies aiding in a well-mixed boundary layer with efficient downward
momentum of higher wind gusts to the surface, expanding drought and
above normal fuel loading supports introduction 40% critical
probabilities for portions of the TX Permian Basin and central TX
for Friday.
...Day 6/Monday - Southern High Plains...
Another mid-level wave amid broad southwesterly flow and associated
deepening lee trough across the Plains is expected to promote a dry
return flow and broader downslope event across portions of the
Southern High Plains on Day 6/Monday. Although some light
precipitation is possible across the TX/OK Panhandle on Day
3/Friday, much of the region should remain dry and relatively warm
through the weekend, contributing to drying of fuels. 40% critical
probabilities were added to far eastern NM and the TX Panhandle/Cap
Rock areas to highlight this potential.
...Days 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday..
Longer term ensemble model guidance evokes a decreasing forecast
certainty in overall synoptic evolution for the middle of next week
within a perhaps more active wave pattern. Increasing uncertainty in
timing of next upper-level trough/lee trough evolution across the
central U.S. around midweek precludes introduction of critical
probabilities across the southern/central Plains where a more
receptive fuelscape is likely.
..Williams.. 12/31/2025
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