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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 271640

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1040 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

   Valid 271700Z - 281200Z

   ...Morning Update...
   Changes were made to the previous forecast to extend the Elevated
   fire risk along the southern Colorado Front Range. This morning, low
   RH values of 10-20% are present in the lee of the Rockies with
   sporadic gusts up to 40 mph extending to the Laramie Range. As the
   area approaches peak heating, deep mixing coupled with westerly
   downslope flow will support sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph and
   terrain-induced isolated gusts of 35-45 mph, supporting Elevated to
   locally critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. In central
   to east-central New Mexico, sustained winds are forecast to be much
   lighter than previous days. This morning, a few gusts of 20-30 mph
   were observed in Albuquerque and east of the Sandia Manzano
   Mountains. RH is expected to drop to 10-20% for a few hours this
   afternoon with sustained winds of 15-20 mph. These conditions
   overlapping dry fuels should support Elevated Fire Weather
   conditions today. 

   For parts of the northern Missouri Valley into the Corn Belt and
   Midwest, locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible for a
   few hours this afternoon. Morning surface RH values are gradually
   dropping between 30-40% and will likely decrease to 20-30% by peak
   heating. Ahead of an advancing cold front, broad sustained
   west-southwesterly surface winds of 10-20 mph are expected, possibly
   up to 30 mph in a localized area of northeastern Nebraska and
   northwestern Iowa. Given recent precipitation across the region,
   sporadic fine fuels may be receptive to fire, keeping fire weather
   concerns fairly localized. See the previous discussion for more
   information.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia/Wendt.. 02/27/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Mid-level ridging will remain in place across the western CONUS with
   northwesterly mid-level flow downstream of this feature. This will
   support another day of dry, downslope flow in the lee of the Rockies
   ahead of a southward surging cold front.

   ...Portions of eastern Wyoming into northeastern Colorado and the
   Nebraska Panhandle...
   Strong northwesterly flow in the mid-levels will lead to the
   enhancement of lee troughing across the central and northern High
   Plains as high pressure builds to the West. This will support a
   strong cross-terrain pressure gradient that will yield dry downslope
   flow in the lee of the central Rockies and Laramie Range, with
   sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph and isolated gusts of 35-45 mph
   expected (locally higher in terrain-favored areas). Deep, boundary
   layer mixing coupled with the dry downslope flow will simultaneously
   favor afternoon RH values falling into the 15-20% range (locally as
   low as 10%). With multiple days of strong, dry downslope winds
   preceding D1/Friday, fuels are expected to be receptive to fire.
   Given these factors, elevated to locally critical fire weather
   conditions are likely for at least a few hours across portions of
   eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle and southward toward the
   Palmer Divide this afternoon. 

   ...Portions of central into east-central New Mexico...
   Lower RH values of 10-15% are likely to extend farther south into
   portions of southeastern New Mexico and western Texas; however,
   winds are expected to remain light. The one exception will be across
   portions of central into east-central New Mexico where a band of
   modest northwesterly mid-level flow will support dry, downslope
   winds in the lee of the Sandia Manzano Mountains. Sustained westerly
   surface winds of 15-20 mph are expected to overlap very low RH
   values of 10-20% for at least a few hours this afternoon. Given
   warm, dry antecedent conditions, this overlap is expected to support
   Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon.

   ...Northern Plains into the Midwest...
   A southward advancing surface cold front will promote a strong
   surface pressure gradient across portions of the northern Plains
   into the western Corn Belt this afternoon. Widespread 20-30 mph
   sustained northwesterly surface winds ahead of this front are
   expected to overlap RH values of 20-30%. Farther south and east,
   lighter southwesterly winds of 10-20 mph are expected to overlap RH
   of 20-30% ahead of a surface pressure trough from southwestern
   Missouri into western Illinois. Given that fuels are expected to be
   only modestly receptive across the region, Elevated fire weather
   concerns should remain localized.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 270735

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0135 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

   Valid 281200Z - 011200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   ...Synopsis...
   Longwave mid-level troughing centered over eastern Canada will
   gradually shift eastward through Day 2/Saturday, yielding weakening
   flow aloft across much of the central/northern High Plains
   downstream of mid-level ridging across the Southwest. Meanwhile, a
   surface cold front will surge southward across the central Great
   Plains. 

   ...Portions of southeastern Wyoming...
   Continuing northwesterly flow across the central/northern Rockies
   will support another day of dry, downslope flow in the lee of the
   Laramie Range. Compared to prior days, however, weakening mid-level
   flow will support only a localized area of stronger sustained
   surface winds of 15-25 mph (locally higher in terrain favored
   areas). Meanwhile, RH values are not expected to drop quite as low
   as previous days, with most guidance depicting min RH values of
   15-25% for only a brief period of time. Given the weakening
   upper-level support and expectation for only a localized corridor of
   higher sustained surface winds to briefly overlap low RH values,
   elevated fire weather conditions are likely to remain localized.

   ...Portions of the Florida Peninsula...
   Dry fuels amid persistent drought across the Florida Peninsula may
   heighten localized fire weather concerns as scattered thunderstorms
   pass through the region on Day 1/Friday into Day 2/Saturday. Areas
   that do not see sufficient rainfall may see potential ignitions from
   lightning interacting with areas of drier fuels.

   ..Chalmers/Lyons.. 02/27/2026


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 262142

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0342 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

   Valid 281200Z - 061200Z

   Mid-level flow will remain amplified over CONUS through Day
   3/Saturday before the ridge over the Southwest slowly shifts east
   Day 4/Sunday - Day 5/Monday. On Day 3/Saturday, continued downslope
   flow in southeastern Wyoming will bring dry and breezy conditions
   atop curing fuels. Throughout the day, 700 mb winds will decrease
   and northwesterly flow aloft will gradually move eastward,
   minimizing upper-level support for stronger sustained winds atop the
   lowest RH. Therefore, 40% Critical probabilities have been withheld
   for now. Dry fuels and a drought ridden landscape across the FL
   Peninsula may heighten localized fire weather concerns as scattered
   thunderstorms pass through the region on Day 2/Friday into Day
   3/Saturday. Areas that do not see sufficient rainfall may have
   holdovers from potential lightning ignitions. 

   Zonal flow aloft evolves in the Southwest on Day 4/Sunday as surface
   troughing pushes cooler air into the Central US. Depending on the
   extent of the arctic airmass, moisture advection via southerly flow
   along the TX Gulf Coast into the southern High Plains may be
   limited. Increasing heights and northwesterly flow aloft will
   promote warm, dry air across the Southwest. Locally elevated fire
   weather conditions may arise in areas with stronger terrain-driven
   wind. 

   Day 5/Monday - Day 8/Thursday, a transition to southwesterly flow
   aloft in the Southwest and southern High Plains will evolve as a
   closed low develops off the West Coast and treks across the Great
   Basin. Surface troughing and enhanced southerly surface flow may
   bring modest Gulf moisture to the Plains region. Despite model and
   ensemble uncertainties in the overlap of strong winds and low RH in
   the Southwest (and to some extent, parts of the southern High
   Plains), elevated fire weather conditions may emerge as a result of
   the overall synoptic pattern.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia/Thornton.. 02/26/2026
      




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