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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 161550
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 161700Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS
COAST...
As a potent cold front traverses the region today, extensive
mid-to-high level cloud cover is expected to limit diurnal heating
across much of the southern Plains Elevated risk area. The Critical
risk area across southern coastal Texas will remain largely clear of
cloud debris until late afternoon, allowing for maximum insolation
and fuel drying.
While guidance suggests localized near-critical conditions farther
north into central Texas and Oklahoma, driven by strong
northwesterly flow aloft, the threat is tempered by a significant
drop in temperatures to 10-20 degrees below normal and the
aforementioned shading. However, the pressure gradient remains
tight; a corridor of sustained northwest surface winds of 15-20 mph,
coupled with RH values of 15-20%, warrants an expansion of the
Elevated area. This expansion now includes central Oklahoma,
northeast Texas, and a westward shift into portions of central Texas
to account for the overlap of wind and low-level moisture recovery
lags. All other outlook areas remain unchanged.
..Stearns/Williams.. 03/16/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026/
...Synopsis...
Dry, post frontal northerly flow will overspread the southern Plains
this afternoon bringing a period of Elevated to Critical fire
weather concerns across eastern New Mexico/far west Texas and from
central Oklahoma to the middle and lower Texas Coast.
...New Mexico and far west Texas...
Dry southeasterly return flow around 15-20 mph will overlap relative
humidity reductions to 15-20 percent across portions of eastern New
Mexico into far western Texas this afternoon. Fuels within this
region remain critically dry and multiple days of windy/dry
conditions and will support maintaining an Elevated area.
...South Central Oklahoma to the Lower Texas Coast...
As the cold front shifts offshore, dry northerly flow will
overspread an area from south-central Oklahoma down to the
middle/lower Texas coast. The driest conditions are expected across
the lower Texas coast, where a Critical was maintained with this
outlook. Relative humidity around 10-15% will overlap north to
northeast winds 15-20 mph across this region. This in addition to
dry fuels will support increased fire spread potential. Confidence
has increase that Elevated conditions will extend across the middle
Texas coast and north into south-central Oklahoma, which was added
with this outlook as several new fires emerged across this region on
Sunday.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 161834
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
The Elevated area over the southern Plains was adjusted slightly
eastward to align with the latest forecast guidance. Locally
critical conditions will be possible over portions of the Texas
Panhandle and southwestern Oklahoma during the Day 2/Tuesday time
frame. Additionally, this lack of moisture recovery will effectively
extend the burn period and pre-condition fuels prior to the arrival
of the strongest synoptic winds on Day 2/Tuesday afternoon.
Farther west and north, an additional Elevated fire weather area has
been introduced across north-central New Mexico, the eastern
Colorado plains, and adjacent segments of the central High Plains.
This region will experience sustained west-to-northwest winds near
15-20 mph with RHs of 15-20%. While northern portions of this risk
area may struggle to meet strict RH thresholds, the proximity to the
upper-level jet suggests these areas will see the highest wind
magnitudes, likely compensating for the marginal humidity.
..Stearns/Williams.. 03/16/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026/
...Synopsis...
A period of Elevated fire weather concerns will return on D2/Tuesday
across the southern Plains. Westerly flow aloft will overspread the
northern/central Rockies, with lee troughing strengthening across
the northern/central High Plains. Strengthening southwest winds will
extend into the Southern Plains where a residual dry air mass will
promote an increasing fire weather threat for southeastern NM, west
TX and western OK. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20%
will overlap sustained south southwesterly winds 10-15 mph. A
corridor of near Critical to Critical conditions may be possible
within this broader Elevated. For now, confidence in coverage of
critical winds is too low to include an area at this time, given low
combined probabilities from ensemble guidance from the HREF.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 162124
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0424 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 241200Z
The large scale pattern will remain fairly consistent throughout the
forecast period. While an upper-level trough moves off the Northeast
US coast on Day 3/Wednesday, a persistent upper level high will
center over the California/Arizona border. A shortwave trough will
round the ridge, moving across the Pacific Northwest on Day
6/Saturday before crossing the northern Plains and Great Lakes
region Day 7/Sunday into Day 8/Monday.
On Day 3/Wednesday through Day 6/Saturday, moderate northwest flow
aloft will remain in place over much of the central High Plains.
Record warm temperatures will be likely as the ridge continues to
build across the western US, leading to deep boundary layer mixing
and resultant dry and windy conditions in portions of southeast
Wyoming, the northern Colorado plains, and extreme western Nebraska.
On Day 6/Saturday and Day 7/Sunday, current forecast guidance is
suggesting some potential of critical conditions over portions of
the southern Plains. However, the likelihood and placement of these
conditions will be dependent upon surface features not yet resolved.
While continued breezy, dry, and warm weather in the meantime would
support conditions conducive to fire activity over this region as
the ridge nudges eastward next weekend, confidence in where and when
the weather risk will be highest is not yet high enough to introduce
any probabilities.
Record temperatures and dry conditions will continue to cure fuels
over the course of several consecutive days across the southern half
of the western US through the outlook period. Regardless of winds,
high Vapor Pressure Deficits and low RHs would suggest extended burn
periods across these areas given receptive fuels.
..Stearns/Williams.. 03/16/2026
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