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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 261639
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 261700Z - 271200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...Southern Plains...
A stalled frontal boundary across northwest TX and the TX Panhandle
introduced extensive cloud cover and much higher relative humidity
north of the boundary overnight. Current satellite and surface
observation trends show a gradual erosion of the cloud cover across
southern KS and the OK/TX Panhandles. Latest short term model
guidance suggests a limited northeastward extent and onset of the
overall fire weather threat as a warm front evolves this afternoon.
This should restrict duration and northeast extent of fire-effective
weather conditions across the northeastern TX and adjacent OK
Panhandles. Thus, critical and elevated highlights have been trimmed
across portions of western OK and the TX/OK Panhandles for this
forecast update.
Extremely Critical fire weather conditions, including southwest
winds of 30-40 mph, with localized gusts near 60 mph, are still
expected across portions the southern High Plains today. The winds,
aided by an intense mid-level jet and associated lee surface cyclone
development across southeastern CO, will combine with surface RH
reductions of 10-20% to promote an extremely critical fire weather
threat across portions of eastern NM into far western TX Panhandle
this afternoon. A broader critical fire weather concern is still
expected across much of the southern High Plains into central and
southern NM, with no additional highlight changes.
..Williams.. 04/26/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026/
...Synopsis...
Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected
today across portions of the southern High Plains. Early-morning
water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude upper wave traversing
the lower CO River Valley. This feature will migrate across the
Southwest through the day as an attendant mid-level jet noses into
the southern High Plains by peak heating. This will promote steady
deepening of a lee cyclone across eastern CO/western KS through the
day, resulting in strengthening west/southwest winds across the
southern High Plains. Consensus from latest guidance and ensemble
output is that widespread 20-25 mph sustained winds are likely
across the region with gusts upwards of 35-45 mph possible. A swath
of 30-35 mph winds will likely emerge across eastern NM into far
western TX under the approaching mid-level jet and within the lee of
the Sacramento and southern Sandia Manzano Mountains, and will
support a corridor of extremely critical fire weather conditions.
A dry air mass has been in place across the Southwest/southern High
Plains over the past several days with afternoon RH minimums largely
in the single digits to low teens. Increasing downslope
warming/drying will promote further RH reductions this afternoon.
Although most guidance depicts afternoon RH minimums in the low to
mid teens, RH values will most likely fall into the 5-10% range
again today.
Although some light precipitation is ongoing early Sunday morning
across northeast NM and parts of the TX Panhandle, MRMS QPE suggests
little rainfall is reaching the surface. Given preceding days of
dry/windy conditions and increasing ERC values (largely near the
85th percentile), receptive fuels will be in place and will support
the fire weather concern.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 261936
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO
WESTERN TEXAS...
...Southwest and Southern High Plains...
Strong mid-level flow of 55-65 knots will linger over the Southwest
and Southern Plains in the wake of a departing upper-level short
wave, while a surface cyclone presses northeastward into the Upper
Midwest by late Monday. As a result, downslope enhanced drying
within broad west-southwest flow will impact this region Monday,
promoting an enhanced fire weather threat within a persistent dry
fuelscape. West winds of 15-20 mph combined with drier conditions
relative to today (minimum 5-15% RH by peak heating) are most likely
across two corridors in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
into the TX Panhandle and downwind of the Sacramento/Guadalupe
Mountains, where Critical Highlights were introduced.
..Williams.. 04/26/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026/
...Synopsis...
Dry and breezy conditions will persist across portions of the
southern High Plains on Monday, supporting another day of Elevated
to Critical fire weather concerns. The upper wave currently
approaching the Southwest is forecast to quickly eject across the
Plains and into the Midwest late Sunday into Monday. As this occurs,
a surface cyclone will migrate into the upper MS River Valley by
Monday evening with a trailing cold front pushing south across the
Southern Plains. Ahead of the front, 15-20 mph westerly winds will
be common across the southern High Plains and into portions of OK
and TX.
Little to no moisture recovery will support another day of 5-15% RH
minimums over a region with dry fuels. Consequently, widespread
elevated fire weather conditions appear likely. Although the primary
synoptic low will be increasingly displaced from the region through
late afternoon, residual strong winds within the boundary layer will
likely support areas of 20-25 mph winds with gusts upwards of 30
mph. Based on latest ensemble guidance, a corridor of sustained 20
mph winds appears likely roughly along portions of the I-40 corridor
from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. Given this ensemble signal
and some recent fire activity within this corridor, Critical
highlights were introduced.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 262117
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0417 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 041200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid-level wave and associated robust jet core will eject into the
southern and central Plains on Day 3/Tuesday. A resultant lee
surface tough evolves across the southern High Plains. The
deep-layer westerly flow will support dry and breezy conditions
across much of NM into western TX Tuesday. A broad upper-level
trough emerges across the eastern U.S. Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday
while a surface trough and cold front promote wetting rains for much
of the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast and portions of the
Southeast, reducing fire weather concerns. Farther west, an
upper-level trough, a stalled frontal boundary at the surface and
sufficient atmospheric moisture should promote widespread wetting
rains across portions of the central and southern High Plains
beginning Day 5/Thursday, lasting through Day 6/Friday. Some
locations across the southern and central High Plains have not
observed significant rainfall in the last 4 months where fuels
remain very dry and green up continues to be delayed.
...Day 3/Tuesday - Southern Plains...
A 50-60 knot mid-level jet at the base of a progressive upper-level
wave pushing into the central Plains will reinforce dry and breezy
westerly flow across much of NM and southern High Plains on Day
3/Tuesday, where a broad 40% critical probability area remains. A
drier air mass ushered in by Tuesday should support very low RH
during the day, likely 10% or below, across southeastern NM,
stretching into west TX. Poor RH recoveries tonight and Day 2/Monday
night leading up to Tuesday, should further precondition the
fuelscape to wildfire spread. 70% critical probabilities have been
introduced where forecast confidence is higher in overlap of low RH
and downslope enhanced west winds of 15-25 mph across southeastern
NM into west TX.
..Williams.. 04/26/2026
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