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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 060727
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 AM CST Fri Feb 06 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will build over the Plains states as a highly
amplified mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic today. Surface
high pressure and an accompanying cool airmass will overspread much
of the U.S. from the Plains eastward, limiting significant
wildfire-spread concerns, except over the northern Florida Peninsula
this afternoon. The passage of a surface trough will encourage 10-15
mph sustained westerly surface winds as RH dips into the 25-35
percent range. Given the lack of recent rainfall over northern parts
of the Peninsula, Elevated highlights have been introduced.
..Squitieri.. 02/06/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 060739
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 AM CST Fri Feb 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...Synopsis...
Predominantly upper ridging will prevail over the central U.S.
tomorrow (Saturday). However, an embedded mid-level impulse will
traverse the ridge over the central Rockies and overspread the
central Plains by afternoon. Surface lee troughing will encourage
dry downslope flow over portions of the Colorado/Wyoming border into
western Nebraska, and northeast New Mexico into the northern Texas
Panhandle by afternoon peak heating. Over both of these areas, 15+
mph sustained westerly surface winds should overlap with 25 percent
RH for at least a few hours. Given the lack of recent precipitation
over these areas, fuels should be dry enough to support some
wildfire-spread potential, warranting the introduction of Elevated
highlights.
..Squitieri.. 02/06/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 052153
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CST Thu Feb 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 131200Z
...Synopsis...
A gradual breakdown of the highly amplified ridge across the western
U.S. is expected through the weekend, with troughing becoming more
established across the West by the middle of next week. An embedded
mid-level short wave within the devolving ridge along with deepening
lee surface troughing across the central/northern Plains will
present an increased fire weather threat across portions of the
central and southern Plains on Day 3/Saturday. Fire weather concerns
could persist for portions of the Southern Plains early next week as
surface troughing and subsequent stronger southwest flow affects the
region.
...Day 3/Saturday...
Dry and breezy conditions within a favorable downslope regime are
likely across portions of the central High Plains Day 3 Saturday,
where westerly winds align with low RH and persistently dry fuels.
Farther south, dry southwest flow south of a deepening lee surface
trough across the central Plains should support a fire weather
threat to portions of northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. 40%
critical probabilities were maintained for these areas for Saturday.
An exiting mid-level trough and dry, post-frontal flow is expected
across the Mid Atlantic/Carolinas region Saturday. However, recent
precipitation and colder temperatures should mitigate a more
significant fire weather threat.
...Day 5/Monday - Southern High Plains...
Fire weather concerns could linger across the southern central High
Plains into early next week as surface lee troughing expands across
the central Plains in the shadow of increasing mid-level flow over
the central Rockies. However, increasing ensemble member spread and
uncertainty regarding the northern extent of return Gulf moisture
into the southern Plains precludes introduction of critical
probabilities at this time.
..Williams.. 02/05/2026
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