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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 090715

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0115 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN
   WYOMING INTO FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN NEW
   MEXICO INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
   OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...

   ...Synopsis...
   Broad upper ridging will overspread the central and eastern CONUS
   today, with a pronounced mid-level impulse poised to crest the ridge
   over the central Plains. An elongated surface low will form over the
   central Plains, with dry northwesterly flow overspreading parts of
   the central Plains within a post-cold frontal regime, and dry
   downslope flow occurring ahead of a surface trough over the southern
   High Plains. Over both areas, the dry and windy surface conditions
   will foster wildfire-spread potential.

   ...Central High Plains...
   Guidance differs somewhat regarding how dry the surface airmass will
   become by afternoon peak heating behind the cold front over the
   central High Plains. Nonetheless, RH may dip as low as 15-20 percent
   amid 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds, atop drying
   fuels. Even if RH does not reach Critical thresholds, the stronger
   post-cold frontal winds atop dry fuels should compensate to support
   wildfire spread.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   By afternoon peak heating, dry downslope flow, in combination with a
   very deep and dry boundary layer, will support RH dipping into the
   10-15 percent range as sustained west-southwesterly surface winds
   exceed 20 mph for several hours. The current guidance consensus
   still depicts the best corridor for Critical conditions over
   northeastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and
   immediate surrounding areas. Given guidance consistency in such
   conditions and continued drying fuels, Critical highlights have been
   maintained.

   ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2026
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 081917

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0117 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
   PLAINS....

   ...19z Update...
   Widespread elevated and a few hours of critical fire-weather
   conditions are likely Monday afternoon across portions of the
   southern High Plains. Downslope winds of 20-25 mph are expected
   during the afternoon. Stronger gusts to 30 mph are also possible
   from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle and western OK. At the same
   time, low RH below 20% is expected for a few hours during the
   afternoon. Given little recent rainfall, some dry fuels are present
   and will likely support fire-weather concerns Monday.

   Across the central High Plains, more transient surface winds and the
   arrival of the cold front during the afternoon will limit the
   duration of elevated fire-weather potential across CO/NE/WY.
   However, dry fuels and the overlap of gusty winds and low humidity
   should still be sufficient for a few hours of elevated concerns. See
   the prior discussion for more information.

   ..Lyons.. 02/08/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level trough will overspread the Great Lakes as another upper
   trough impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). The
   progression of the northern U.S. trough will encourage surface low
   development over the central Plains Monday afternoon, with dry
   downslope flow over portions of the High Plains. Widespread Elevated
   conditions are expected across parts of the central High Plains into
   Nebraska immediately behind a surface cold front accompanying the
   aforementioned surface low. 15-20 mph sustained west-northwesterly
   surface winds will overlap with 20-25 percent RH atop dry fuels for
   at least a few hours.

   Farther south across the southern High Plains, dry downslope flow
   will be stronger compared to points farther north. By afternoon peak
   heating, southwesterly surface winds may sustain over 25 mph amid
   10-15 percent RH, warranting Critical highlights given dry fuels.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 082155

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0355 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026

   Valid 101200Z - 161200Z

   Active mid-level flow will continue to intensify this week as
   troughing gradually deepens over the West. Episodic troughing will
   overspread the Southwest and Plains through midweek. Gusty downslope
   winds are possible in the lee of the Rockies and southern Plains.
   This will continue into next weekend when more substantial troughing
   appears likely to emerge over the central US. While fire-weather
   conditions will remaining localize initially, the increase in
   westerly flow overlapped with unusually warm/dry conditions should
   increase fire-weather concerns later in the forecast cycle.

   ...Southwest and Plains...
   A southern stream shortwave trough will move from the southern
   Rockies and over the Southwest and far southern Plains D3/Tuesday
   and D4/Wednesday. This trough will support a weak lee low bolstering
   some gusty westerly winds over parts of eastern NM and west TX ahead
   of a weak cold front. Some localized fire-weather concerns are
   possible given dry fuels and above normal temperature, though the
   area extent is uncertain.

   More substantial troughing is expected to develop later into the
   week and into next weekend as strong flow aloft continues to move
   southward. Lee troughing will increase westerly surface winds across
   parts of the High Plains D5/Thursday potentially supporting some
   potential for more active fire-weather conditions. However, ensemble
   spread increases substantially. Additionally, the increase in
   troughing will coincide with the potential for precipitation. Given
   this uncertainty, no probabilities will be drawn for now despite the
   expectation of a general increase in fire-weather potential next
   week.

   ..Lyons.. 02/08/2026
      




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