ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 281846

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1246 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   An elevated area was added across portions of the Southeast,
   southern Appalachians, and North Carolina. In the wake of a strong
   surface-cold front, a drier and windier airmass will overspread the
   Southeast. Although meteorologically elevated fire weather
   conditions will take hold across much of the area, the recent influx
   of Gulf moisture ahead the strong cold front has tempered the
   seasonally adjusted ERC percentiles, especially farther west across
   Mississippi and Alabama. As such, for this forecast period,
   highlights will focus on regions where seasonally adjusted ERC
   percentiles are the highest. The totality of the Southeast will need
   to be monitored for an increase in fire weather concerns through
   much of the upcoming week.

   Elsewhere, across the Southern Plains the very dry low-level airmass
   will remain firmly entrenched beneath northwest flow aloft. The
   result will be minimum afternoon relative humidity percentages
   falling into the teens with maximum surface winds between 10-15 mph
   (and locally higher gusts). This will support a continued elevated
   risk of fire weather conditions.

   ..Marsh.. 12/28/2025

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025/

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level trough will impinge on the East Coast tomorrow (Monday),
   resulting in northwesterly upper flow overspreading the Plains
   states through the Day 2 period. Northwesterly flow will also
   prevail at the surface over the Plains as surface high pressure
   settles over the region. Sustained surface north-northwesterly winds
   should peak around 15 mph by afternoon, amid 40 F surface
   temperatures and 15-25 percent RH. Given drying fuels, the
   aforementioned meteorological conditions should support low-end
   Elevated conditions. The best chance for these conditions will be
   across the eastern Texas Panhandle into northwest Texas and western
   Oklahoma, where Elevated highlights have been introduced.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 272134

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0334 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

   Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

   The mid-level ridge across the central United States will finally be
   suppressed to the south by the start of this forecast period as a
   strong cyclone evolves across the Great Lakes. This strong cyclone
   will drive a cold front southward into the Gulf of America and
   through the Southeast, ushering in a cold, dry continental airmass
   across much of the eastern US. Despite the cooler airmass, elevated
   to locally critical fire weather conditions may develop across
   portions of the Southern Plains on Monday (D3) and Tuesday (D4).

   On Monday the dry airmass will be fully entrenched across the Plains
   as a strong surface anticyclone takes hold from the Northern Plains
   into the Southern Plains. The result will be minimum afternoon
   relative humidity will be lower than on Sunday, falling into the
   teens and twenty percent range. Winds, however, will be considerably
   weaker than on Sunday, with maximum gusts likely in the 10-20 mph
   range. The result will be elevated to locally critical fire
   conditions for at least a couple of hours during the afternoon.

   On Tuesday the center of the surface anticyclone will slide east of
   the Plains resulting in winds turning to the west and southwest.
   This will set the stage for a potential dry return flow regime
   across western Oklahoma. Minimum relative humidity will once again
   be in the teens in the presence of potentially gusty afternoon
   winds. This may once again result in elevated to locally critical
   fire weather concerns. 

   Through the rest of the forecast period, the large-scale pattern
   across the CONUS will consist of a northwest flow regime owing to a
   western ridge and eastern trough. The northwest flow pattern will
   limit appreciable moisture return into the eastern US, such that any
   embedded disturbance within the larger-scale flow pattern could
   result in elevated fire weather concerns. However, the subtlety of
   any of these features is such that the timing of any such feature is
   below the scale of predictability at these time ranges.

   ..Marsh.. 12/27/2025