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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 270645
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected this
afternoon across the southern High Plains. Early-morning surface
observations show that a very dry air mass resides over the
Southwest and southern High Plains with dewpoints in the 15-25 F
range for most locations. This air mass resulted in RH minimums
generally near 10% yesterday, and with no moisture recovery expected
over the next 24-48 hours, similar RH values are anticipated this
afternoon.
Gradient winds will generally increase to 15-20 mph across the
region through late morning and early afternoon before gradually
abating by early evening as a surface cyclone drifts towards the MS
Valley/Midwest region. Critical conditions appear most likely
roughly along the I-40 corridor and downwind of the Sacramento
Mountains. Here, residual belts of 20-30 mph low-level flow within
the boundary layer will help support sustained winds closer to 20
mph with gusts up to 30-35 mph. Given dry conditions over preceding
days and recent new fire activity, fuels will support some degree of
fire spread.
..Moore.. 04/27/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 270646
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
WESTERN TEXAS...
...Synopsis...
Critical fire weather conditions will continue into Tuesday across
parts of eastern NM and western TX. Early-morning water-vapor
imagery depicts a low-amplitude upper wave over central CA. This
feature will quickly progress eastward into the Southwest over the
next 48 hours, which will result in surface pressure falls and
increasing westerly gradient winds across the southern High Plains
Tuesday afternoon.
Latest forecast consensus is that wind speeds will generally
increase into the 15-20 mph range for most of the region. Given an
antecedent dry air mass and several preceding days of dry/windy
conditions, fuels will remain stressed through Tuesday and should
support some degree of fire spread. Additionally, increasing
downslope flow will maintain dry conditions with RH minimums in the
10-20% range likely. Critical fire weather conditions appear most
probable in the lee of the more prominent southern Rockies mountain
ranges where terrain enhancement of flow under the upper jet will
promote sustained winds closer to 20-25 mph.
..Moore.. 04/27/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 262117
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0417 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 041200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid-level wave and associated robust jet core will eject into the
southern and central Plains on Day 3/Tuesday. A resultant lee
surface tough evolves across the southern High Plains. The
deep-layer westerly flow will support dry and breezy conditions
across much of NM into western TX Tuesday. A broad upper-level
trough emerges across the eastern U.S. Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday
while a surface trough and cold front promote wetting rains for much
of the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast and portions of the
Southeast, reducing fire weather concerns. Farther west, an
upper-level trough, a stalled frontal boundary at the surface and
sufficient atmospheric moisture should promote widespread wetting
rains across portions of the central and southern High Plains
beginning Day 5/Thursday, lasting through Day 6/Friday. Some
locations across the southern and central High Plains have not
observed significant rainfall in the last 4 months where fuels
remain very dry and green up continues to be delayed.
...Day 3/Tuesday - Southern Plains...
A 50-60 knot mid-level jet at the base of a progressive upper-level
wave pushing into the central Plains will reinforce dry and breezy
westerly flow across much of NM and southern High Plains on Day
3/Tuesday, where a broad 40% critical probability area remains. A
drier air mass ushered in by Tuesday should support very low RH
during the day, likely 10% or below, across southeastern NM,
stretching into west TX. Poor RH recoveries tonight and Day 2/Monday
night leading up to Tuesday, should further precondition the
fuelscape to wildfire spread. 70% critical probabilities have been
introduced where forecast confidence is higher in overlap of low RH
and downslope enhanced west winds of 15-25 mph across southeastern
NM into west TX.
..Williams.. 04/26/2026
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