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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 250601
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...Synopsis...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across
portions of the Southwest and the southern High Plains.
Early-morning surface observations depict dewpoints in the low to
mid teens with poor overnight RH recovery (RH values also in the
teens) across much of eastern AZ, NM, and southern CO. No
appreciable moisture recovery is anticipated for today, which will
maintain very dry conditions with RH minimums in the single digits
to low teens across the region.
Aloft, a low-amplitude upper wave will progress eastward across the
southern Rockies and into the southern Plains through peak heating.
This will promote slight deepening of a lee trough across KS/OK with
a resultant strengthening of westerly flow across the Southwest and
southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance depicts high
probability for sustained winds near 15 mph with occasional gusts
upwards of 25-30 mph possible. While localized/transient critical
conditions are possible (mainly across south-central NM and
southwest TX), most areas will likely see several hours of elevated
fire weather conditions this afternoon.
Fuels across the greater Southwest/southern High Plains region have
been slowly drying after preceding days of warm and windy
conditions. ERC values were recently estimated to be near the 85th
percentile, which is corroborated by small to moderate new fire
starts (10-100 acre fires) across NM and CO over the past 24 hours.
Consequently, fuels are sufficiently dry to support the Elevated
fire weather threat across the southern High Plains. Elevated
wind/RH conditions will likely expand as far east as northwest
TX/southwest OK, but fuel receptiveness generally declines with
eastward extent due to rainfall over the past week.
..Moore.. 04/25/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 250624
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected Sunday afternoon
across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. West to
southwesterly low-level winds are forecast to strengthen in response
to a steadily deepening lee cyclone across eastern CO Sunday
afternoon and evening. Latest ensemble guidance depicts reasonably
high probability for sustained 20-25 mph winds with some
deterministic solutions suggesting winds upwards of 30 mph are
possible. The approach of a mid-level jet during the late
afternoon/early evening hours may support enhanced downward momentum
transfer through a deeply-mixed boundary layer, which could manifest
at the surface as 40-50 mph wind gusts.
Dry conditions will prevail across the southern High Plains given an
antecedent dry air mass (dewpoints were in the low teens per 06 UTC
observations), and the expectation for increasing downslope
warming/drying. Forecast consensus is that RH minimums will reach
the mid teens Sunday afternoon, but given preceding days of
single-digit RH minimums and little to no moisture recovery
expected, RH values will most likely fall into the 5-15% range
across eastern NM and western TX.
The combination of very strong winds and dry conditions will support
widespread critical conditions. Localized areas of extremely
critical conditions appear possible across eastern NM and far
western TX; however, ensemble probabilities for sustained 30+ mph
winds remain limited - likely owing to the late arrival of the
mid-level jet just past peak heating. Regardless, receptive fuels
are already in place across much of the region based on increasing
ERC values and recent fire activity, and will support the fire
weather concern.
..Moore.. 04/25/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 242124
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0424 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level short wave trough enters the Southwest on Day
3/Sunday while an attendant jet max pushing into the southern High
Plains, bringing an enhanced fire weather threat to the region where
fuels remain receptive. Lingering strong southwesterly flow aloft
and a departing surface low across the Midwest, will continue to
bring dry and breezy conditions to portions of the southern High
Plains on Day 4/Monday. The broader troughing pattern across the
western U.S. should bring some relief to much of the Intermountain
West in the form of cooler temperatures and precipitation. Mid/upper
troughing shifts into the eastern U.S. by mid to late week, bringing
much needed additional rainfall to much of the Appalachians,
Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, although some pockets of lingering dry
fuels could exist by the end of next week.
...Day 3-5/Sunday-Tuesday - Southwest and Southern Plains...
A strong mid-level jet and parent trough entering the Southwest and
incipient surface cyclogenesis over the central High Plains will
bring an expansive wind event to portions of the Southwest and
Southern Plains on Day 3/Sunday. Enhanced downslope drying with west
winds of 15-25 mph behind a demarcating dry line will likely bring a
critical fire weather threat to much of southern and eastern NM, TX
Panhandle and West TX where some modifications to the 40% and 70%
critical probabilities were made. Latest forecast guidance does
suggest the potential for a corridor of Extremely Critical fire
weather conditions, including southwest winds of 30-35 mph over
receptive fuels, emerging across portions of southern and eastern NM
by Sunday afternoon.
Lingering fire weather concerns should be concentrated across the
Southwest and Southern Plains through Day 5/Tuesday as persistent
westerly flow aloft and dry conditions persist, as upper-level
troughing begins to shift into the central U.S. 40% critical
probabilities were introduced for both Day 4/Monday and Day
5/Tuesday for portions of NM and West TX to account for dry, fire
effective westerly winds encompassing portions of the Southern
Plains. Longer term model guidance indicates a lower latitude
mid-level wave moving into the Southwest and northern Mexico by the
Day 7-8/Thursday-Friday time frame. A corresponding surface low
across southern TX could bring much of eastern NM and the Southern
Plains much needed rainfall owing to more favorable Gulf moisture
return trajectories.
..Williams.. 04/24/2026
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