|
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 301645
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026
Valid 301700Z - 311200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WYOMING...
...Morning Update...
Fire weather concerns remain on track for a large portion of the
central and southern High Plains and Four Corners region. Elevated
highlights have been slightly expanded northward into the Big Horn
Basin to account for westerly downslope winds of 20-30 mph
(localized 40+ mph gusts) and RH dropping to less than 20 percent
atop a dry fuelscape. However, duration of the strongest winds is
expected to be limited. Critical fire weather conditions are
expected across central and eastern WY where record high
temperatures, sustained surface westerly winds of 25-30 mph, and RH
less than 15 percent amid poor overnight humidity recovery.
There is potential in the central to southeastern TX Panhandle for
mixed wet/dry thunderstorms to form along the dryline this
afternoon. A resurgence of moisture as the dryline retreats should
increase surface RH, limiting impacts to wildfire spread from
potential ignitions. This precludes the introduction of an Isolated
Dry Thunderstorm area.
Please see the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 03/30/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will persist over the CONUS today, with an embedded
mid-level impulse poised to traverse the Rockies, supporting surface
low development over the Plains. Gradient/downslope flow will
encourage widespread 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds amid
15-20 percent RH over the Four Corners region, and across the
central and southern High Plains. Elevated highlights have been
maintained given the presence of dry fuels. Critical highlights also
remain in place over central and eastern Wyoming, where surface
winds could sustain over 25 mph for at least a few hours this
afternoon.
Isolated high-based thunderstorms are also possible across portions
of eastern Arizona into western New Mexico in association with the
passage of a mid-level impulse. Given the expectation of a deep and
dry boundary layer, lightning over drying fuels with little to no
rainfall accumulation may occur, warranting isolated dry
thunderstorm highlights.
|
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 301922
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...20z Update...
Expected increased mid-level moisture, steep low-level lapse rates,
and resultant instability east of the dryline in the eastern TX
Panhandle and far western OK has prompted the introduction of an
Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area. A few lightning ignitions from
high-based thunderstorms are a concern within the dry fuelscape, and
outflow winds could promote problematic fire weather conditions
throughout the afternoon and early evening.
Elevated fire weather highlights have been maintained across the
southern High Plains as sustained westerly winds of 10-15 mph and 15
percent RH overspread dry fuels. However, increasing mid and
high-level clouds may limit deeper mixing. See the previous
discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 03/30/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level impulse will overspread the Desert Southwest tomorrow
(Wednesday), with surface low development expected over the southern
Plains. This surface low will encourage dry downslope flow across
portions of the southern High Plains tomorrow afternoon, resulting
in 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. These
conditions will overspread dry fuels, warranting the introduction of
Elevated highlights.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 292051
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026
Valid 311200Z - 061200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will progress from the western U.S. into the
Great Plains by D5/Thursday, with a more amplified trough entering
the central CONUS by the weekend. Dry and breezy conditions
developing ahead of a surface cold front under increasingly
southwest flow aloft should maintain a fire weather threat across
the southern High Plains D3/Tuesday. The active trough pattern will
bring cooler temperatures and much needed rain and higher elevation
snow to much of the western U.S. Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday with
precipitation expanding eastward east of the Continental Divide
through the remainder of the week. This should reduce fire weather
concerns overall, with exceptions across the central and southern
High Plains where precipitation will be limited where pockets of
dry/receptive fuels are likely to remain.
...Day 3-6/Tuesday-Thursday - Southern High Plains and far West
Texas...
Increasing southwesterly flow aloft and surface lee troughing across
the southern High Plains will support downslope enhanced winds and
low relative humidity across eastern NM and portions of western
TX/TX Panhandle on Tuesday. Slight modifications were made to the
existing 40% critical probability area, with some uncertainty still
present in timing of a surface cold front across southern KS into
the TX Panhandle. The fire weather threat shifts southward into
southeastern NM and western TX Wednesday as a mid-level trough and
associated jet eject into the Southern Plains. Deeper boundary layer
moisture and associated rainfall should remain to the east of the
southern High Plains, allowing dry and receptive fuels to persist.
Strong westerly mid-level winds and lee surface troughing will
continue to support dry, downslope favored flow across the southern
High Plains for both D5/Thursday and D6/Friday. Initial 40% critical
probabilities have been introduced for much of eastern NM and
western TX for Thursday and Friday, with possible inclusion of 70%
critical probabilities in future outlooks amid the strong mid-level
flow.
..Williams.. 03/29/2026
|
|
