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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 061633
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 061700Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Morning Update...
The forecast remains on track. Recent surface analysis placed a cold
front from south-central CO through far eastern NM into the TX Hill
Country. Marginal overnight humidity recoveries occurred for
southeastern NM, however, West Texas did not experience good
recoveries. Current surface observations depict RH values of 20-30
percent across the region, gradually decreasing under clearing skies
and afternoon heating. While ERCs have declined due to recent
appreciable rainfall, localized fire weather concerns may emerge
where dry and breezy conditions align with sporadic dry fuels. See
the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026/
...Synopsis...
Mid-level split flow consolidates into a broader southwesterly 70-80
knot jet over the Ozarks into the OH River Valley today ahead of an
elongated upper trough stretching from the Upper Midwest to the
Desert Southwest. At the surface, an advancing cold front extends
southwestward from the Northeast into the Southern Plains. A
deepening lee surface trough across eastern NM will promote dry,
downslope westerly winds across portions of the southern NM and west
TX under reinforcing southwesterly flow aloft.
...Southern New Mexico into West Texas...
Southwesterly flow aloft and low-level westerly winds (south of an
evolving lee surface low) will affect much of southern NM and West
TX today. Enhanced downslope drying yielding minimum RH of 10-15%
along with west winds of 15-25 mph are expected during peak boundary
layer mixing today. However, marginal fuels will inhibit overall
wildfire spread potential due to recent rainfall, although pockets
of dry fuels could support localized elevated fire weather concerns
particularly across the Cap Rock area.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 061840
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
The ongoing forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion
for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough and associated mid-level speed max will shift
into eastern CONUS Thursday. A cold front and attendant band of
showers and thunderstorms will overspread much of the Southeast and
Piedmont regions. Increasing westerly low-level flow south of the
frontal boundary will bring fire weather concerns to portions of
eastern FL Thursday. A building upper ridge across the western U.S.
will promote warming temperatures and dry conditions for the region.
...Florida Peninsula...
Enhanced westerly surface winds of 10-15 mph are expected across the
FL Peninsula as a cold front approaches the FL/GA border Thursday.
Inland temperatures in the low to mid 90s F will evolve within a
dry, well mixed boundary layer by early Thursday afternoon. The warm
temperatures, increasing westerly flow amid relative humidity in the
25-35% range and drying fuels, will support an elevated fire weather
concern for portions of the eastern FL Peninsula where Elevated
Highlights have been introduced.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 062127
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0427 PM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 141200Z
Upper troughing will extend along the eastern U.S. and persist
through early next week as an upper-level low over eastern Canada
remains anchored. This pattern will encourage unsettled weather and
repeated chances for precipitation across portions of the Southeast
to the Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, broader fire weather concerns may
temporarily be dampened for much of the eastern U.S. through the
duration of the forecast period, given a widespread transition to
green-up and expected appreciable precipitation.
An upper ridge will prevail across the western U.S. through the
forecast period. This pattern may result in a curing event, given
above normal temperatures and dry conditions to persist for much of
the Intermountain West. However, timely green-up phase of fuels and
lighter winds should keep concerns low through early next week.
Localized fire weather concerns may emerge in terrain-favored areas
where stronger winds overlap dry fuels.
Between western U.S. ridging and troughing to the east, broad
northwesterly flow over the High Plains and Upper Midwest is
expected to promote sporadic dry and windy conditions atop drying
fuels. Uncertainty in medium-range guidance precludes critical
probabilities at this time, however, fire weather potential should
become more evident in future outlooks.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/06/2026
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