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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 170622
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...
...Synopsis...
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected today
across the High Plains and southern Plains. Very dry conditions are
prevalent across the central CONUS in the wake of a strong frontal
passage (dewpoints in the single digits to low teens over the Plains
are near/below the 10th percentile for mid-March). Surface high
pressure over the southern CONUS will continue to shift east through
the day as a lee trough deepens along the High Plains. The resulting
pressure gradient winds across the southern Plains and off downslope
flow the western slopes of the Rockies will promote elevated to
critical fire weather conditions over regions with recent wildfire
activity.
...Southern Plains...
Forecast guidance continues to show strengthening southwest winds
through the afternoon across central TX to central OK as the
pressure gradient strengthens with the deepening surface trough
along the High Plains. Relative humidity reductions will be most
pronounced (and possibly as low as 10-15%) from western TX into
southwest OK under the low-level thermal ridge. Model consensus
suggests winds through this corridor will increase to 15-20 mph;
however, guidance typically under-mixes the boundary layer in dry
return flow regimes with higher RH values and weaker winds than
actually observed. Based on this, the expectation is that winds
under the thermal ridge will likely be sustained near 20 mph, which
will increase the probability of sustained critical fire weather
conditions. A targeted critical risk area has been introduced across
this region.
...Central to southern High Plains...
Westerly 15-20 mph winds off the central to southern Rockies will
support several areas of elevated fire weather conditions from
central and southeast WY southward into West TX. Forecast guidance
show reasonably good agreement in RH reductions down to 20% with
areas of 15% possible. Solutions that typically over-mix in these
regimes (notably the RAP and HRRR) hint that 20-25 mph winds are
possible across southeast WY into far northeast CO and parts of the
NE Panhandle where active wildfires have been ongoing in recent
days. Confidence in sustained critical conditions across this
corridor is limited due to spread in guidance and poor ensemble
agreement, but given the very dry conditions, observed trends will
be monitored for the need for Critical highlights.
..Moore.. 03/17/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 170644
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...Synopsis...
Elevated fire weather conditions will persist across portions of the
central High Plains on Wednesday. An anomalously strong upper ridge
will gradually build across the Southwest over the next 48 hours,
which will establish a northwesterly flow regime over the central
CONUS. With stronger mid-level flow displaced towards the northern
Rockies, lee troughing will become most pronounced across central MT
to eastern WY Wednesday morning through the afternoon. Confidence is
fairly high (80%) in sustained winds between 15-25 mph across
central WY into the NE Panhandle and far northeast CO. A resumption
of westerly downslope flow will support RH reductions into the
20-25% range based on ensemble consensus. Drier/more well-mixed
solutions hint at RH reductions as low as the 10-15% range, which
would support a swath of critical fire weather conditions (mainly
across central to southeast WY). However, confidence in this
potential is limited based on modest ensemble probabilities (around
40-50% probability of RH reductions below 15%). Regardless,
antecedent drought conditions and preceding dry/windy conditions on
Tuesday will maintain dry fuels (and/or help cure fine fuels in
areas that recently received precipitation) to support the fire
weather threat Wednesday afternoon.
..Moore.. 03/17/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 162124
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0424 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 241200Z
The large scale pattern will remain fairly consistent throughout the
forecast period. While an upper-level trough moves off the Northeast
US coast on Day 3/Wednesday, a persistent upper level high will
center over the California/Arizona border. A shortwave trough will
round the ridge, moving across the Pacific Northwest on Day
6/Saturday before crossing the northern Plains and Great Lakes
region Day 7/Sunday into Day 8/Monday.
On Day 3/Wednesday through Day 6/Saturday, moderate northwest flow
aloft will remain in place over much of the central High Plains.
Record warm temperatures will be likely as the ridge continues to
build across the western US, leading to deep boundary layer mixing
and resultant dry and windy conditions in portions of southeast
Wyoming, the northern Colorado plains, and extreme western Nebraska.
On Day 6/Saturday and Day 7/Sunday, current forecast guidance is
suggesting some potential of critical conditions over portions of
the southern Plains. However, the likelihood and placement of these
conditions will be dependent upon surface features not yet resolved.
While continued breezy, dry, and warm weather in the meantime would
support conditions conducive to fire activity over this region as
the ridge nudges eastward next weekend, confidence in where and when
the weather risk will be highest is not yet high enough to introduce
any probabilities.
Record temperatures and dry conditions will continue to cure fuels
over the course of several consecutive days across the southern half
of the western US through the outlook period. Regardless of winds,
high Vapor Pressure Deficits and low RHs would suggest extended burn
periods across these areas given receptive fuels.
..Stearns/Williams.. 03/16/2026
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