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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 161607
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1007 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 161700Z - 171200Z
...Southern and Central Plains...
Increasing westerly flow aloft and associated strengthening surface
lee troughing across the central/southern High Plains will support
dry and breezy conditions across portions of eastern CO, eastern NM
and OK/TX Panhandles through this afternoon. Sustained
south/southwest winds approaching 20 mph coinciding with minimum RH
between 15 and 20 percent will promote elevated fire weather
conditions amid a receptive fuelscape. Boundary layer decoupling
could be delayed across the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest KS
supporting a lingering fire weather threat into the late evening
hours, where surface wind reductions will be gradual under an
accelerating low-level jet. In addition, poor RH recoveries of 30%
or less under increasing cloud cover are possible overnight leading
into Day 2/Tuesday. A slight eastward extension of Elevated
highlights was made across the TX Panhandle and far northwestern OK
based on latest model guidance and surface observations.
..Williams.. 02/16/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will overspread the Mississippi Valley as a
pronounced mid-level trough impinges on the Rockies today. As this
occurs, strong surface lee troughing will encourage widespread 15+
mph sustained southerly winds over the central and southern High
Plains for much of the afternoon. Elevated highlights have been
maintained over areas devoid of recent precipitation (hence dry
fuels), and where RH will dip below 20 percent for several hours.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 161957
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHWARD
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...Central High Plains...
A rapidly deepening surface low across the northern and central High
Plains under pronounced westerly flow aloft, will support downslope
drying and strong winds across the Central Plains Tuesday. Extremely
Critical and particularly dangerous fire weather conditions remain
likely across portions of northeastern CO, southwestern NE and far
northwestern KS where sustained west winds of up to 40 mph and very
low relative humidity as low as 10 percent align. Very dry,
receptive fuels exist across the area with the potential for fast
moving wildfires if ignitions occur. The Extremely Critical
highlighted area was shifted slightly to the southeast based on
latest short term model guidance. A broader region of Critical
Highlights across the Central Plains was expanded eastward into
central NE and central KS to account for critical fire weather
conditions likely to occur as a dry cold front moves through the
region late Tuesday.
...Southern High Plains...
The arrival of a 110-120 knot mid-level jet streak into eastern NM
and the TX Panhandle along with steady surface pressure falls in
response of a strengthening lee surface trough across the High
Plains will promote a broad area of elevated to critical fire
weather conditions across the Southern High Plains Tuesday.
Southwest winds of 25-35 mph along with RH as low as 15 percent will
align with dry fuels to support an increasing wildfire spread
potential. Expanded Elevated and Critical highlights farther
eastward into central KS and western OK with the fire weather threat
lingering into the evening hours as a dry cold front pushes through
the region. A low-level thermal ridge stretching from central TX
into the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK could support a narrow
corridor of marginally lower RH Tuesday afternoon at or below 15
percent. However, expansive mid and upper-level cloud cover as well
as blowing dust is expected to reduce boundary layer mixing to a
degree, which should temper overall fire weather conditions at least
through the early afternoon hours.
..Williams.. 02/16/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026/
...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough, accompanied by a near 120 kt 500 mb
jet streak, will overspread the central into southern High Plains
tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting rapid surface low deepening over the
central/northern Plains by afternoon. Combined isallobaric and
downslope flow along the High Plains will result in a strong
westerly surface wind field amid a drying boundary layer, atop dry
fuels, promoting potentially dangerous conditions favorable for
rapid wildfire spread.
...Central High Plains...
By afternoon peak heating, as a surface low deepens over the central
to northern High Plains, sustained westerly surface winds should
strengthen to at least the 25-35 mph range as RH drops to at least
15-20 percent over most locales, necessitating Critical highlights.
Guidance consensus depicts a belt of 30+ mph sustained surface
winds, with higher gusts, over northeastern Colorado into
southwestern Nebraska, and extreme northwestern Kansas, with RH
likely dipping to at least 15 percent. Currently, guidance suggests
that the primary mid-level jet and accompanying cloud cover should
pass this region to the south. As such, adequate boundary layer
mixing should support the aforementioned surface conditions, and
when also considering the very dry fuels in place (i.e. 90th
percentile ERCs), the addition of Extremely Critical highlights
appears warranted. Even if RH does not dip below 20 percent, the
combination of such strong winds and critically dry fuels should
compensate to support volatile wildfire-spread conditions.
...Southern High Plains...
Sustained west-southwesterly surface winds in the 25-40 mph range
should become established across much of the southern High Plains
Tuesday afternoon as the 120 kt mid-level jet streak overspreads the
region. Considerable cloud cover should accompany the jet streak,
lending uncertainty to the degree of RH reductions over the southern
High Plains. Some guidance hints at RH only dipping to 25-35 percent
over extreme eastern New Mexico into the western Texas Panhandle.
Even so, the strength of the anticipated surface wind field atop
cured fuels devoid of recent precipitation alone warrants the
introduction of at least Critical highlights. RH should drop to at
least 20 to perhaps 15 percent along the Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma
border, promoting high-end Critical fire weather conditions. If
confidence increases in further RH reductions over this area,
Extremely Critical highlights may need to be introduced in future
outlooks.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 162156
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 241200Z
...Synopsis...
Strong and persistent westerly flow aloft and surface troughing
across the Central Plains should keep a fire weather threat in place
over portions of the Southern Plains Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday.
Troughing shifts into the eastern U.S. over the weekend while
upper-level ridging builds into the central U.S. by early next week.
An initial surge of drier, northerly flow east of the Continental
Divide could bring fire weather concerns to the portions of the
southern Plains on Day 6/Saturday and perhaps the Southeast and FL
on Day 7/Sunday.
...Day 3/Wednesday...
Critical fire weather conditions are likely across the southern High
Plains on Day 3/Wednesday as a mid-level jet overspreads the region
while a surface cyclone deepens in eastern CO. Less cloud cover
should yield a better boundary layer mixing environment overall
across the Southern Plains. A corridor of strong southwesterly flow,
relative humidity perhaps below 10 percent and dry fuels are
expected from southeastern NM northeastward into southeastern CO and
southwestern KS. 70 percent Critical probabilities were appreciably
expanded, encompassing much of the Southern Plains for Wednesday.
Enhanced westerly winds south of a surface low over the Upper
Midwest are likely across the Corn Belt region on Wednesday,
although some precipitation Wednesday morning could mitigate a
broader fire weather threat. Minimal rainfall over the past several
weeks has contributed to drier fuels but uncertainty in rainfall
coverage and magnitude precludes introduction of Critical
probabilities at this time.
...Day 4/Thursday - Southern Plains...
Strong mid-level flow will continue over the southern/central Plains
while a deepening surface low moves into the Midwest Day 4/Thursday.
As a result, dry and breezy conditions should be maintained across
much of the Southern Plains. Extended 40 percent critical
probabilities eastward into OK with some uncertainty in the degree
of boundary layer drying and surface RH reductions limiting
confidence in a 70 percent Critical area.
...Day 5/Friday - Southeastern New Mexico and Far West Texas...
Model guidance depicts another mid-level short wave trough and
attendant jet max ejecting into the Southern Plains on Day 5/Friday
while a surface cyclone evolves across eastern NM. This would
support stronger westerly, downslope flow into southeastern NM and
far west TX. 40 percent critical probabilities have been added.
...Day 6-8/Saturday-Monday...
A more active wave pattern likely emerges across CONUS by the
weekend, with upper-level troughing shifting into the East by early
next week. Emergent Northwest flow aloft should aid in ushering in a
cooler air mass into much of the eastern U.S. Potential for dry,
post frontal flow and related fire weather threat exists
particularity across portions of TX Day 6/Saturday and the
Southeast/FL by Day 7/Sunday, but timing uncertainty of the front
limits predictability for the weekend. This precludes introduction
of probabilities at this time.
..Williams.. 02/16/2026
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