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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 061540
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1040 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 061700Z - 071200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...
Subtle expansions were made to the northeast corners of both the
Critical and Elevated areas. This was done in agreement with the
latest forecast guidance allowing for drier surface conditions to
advect slightly farther north and east ahead of the approaching cold
front. As of late morning, surface observations are already showing
sustained southwest winds of 15-25 mph with RHs dropping below 30%.
The frontal boundary, and associated change in wind direction from
south-southwest to northeast, is currently forecast to move south
through west-central Kansas and into the drawn areas around 8pm this
evening. Almost all of the highlighted area is expected to drop
below elevated criteria before the front becomes nearly stationary
near the Colorado/Oklahoma border late tonight.
..Stearns.. 04/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging over the West will begin to dampen today ahead
of an incoming mid-level trough shifting into the Pacific Northwest
and as a second, more subtle, mid-level shortwave trough traverses
eastward over the Southwest. Concurrently, longwave troughing will
persist across the Northeast, with a cold front progressing slowly
southward across the central Great Plains and Midwest.
...Portions of the central/southern High Plains...
Surface high pressure across the southern Great Plains in tandem
with a surface low forecast to strengthen over eastern Colorado will
promote a tightened pressure gradient across portions of the
central/southern High Plains today. Sustained south-southwesterly
surface winds of 20-25 mph are forecast to overlap very low RH of
10-15% for several hours this afternoon. With dry conditions across
the region on Sunday helping to further pre-condition already
receptive fuels, this combination of wind/RH is expected to support
Critical fire weather conditions across the western Oklahoma
Panhandle, northern Texas Panhandle, northeastern New Mexico,
southeastern Colorado, and southwestern Kansas. Meanwhile, sustained
15-20 mph surface winds overlapping low RH of 15-20% will promote
elevated fire weather concerns across adjacent areas of the
central/southern High Plains.
Latest guidance consensus continues to suggest that the
aforementioned, slow-moving cold front will approach the northern
portions of the drawn area after sunset before becoming largely
stationary. Areas that do see the passage of the cold front can
expect a shift to east-northeasterly winds and at least some
increase in relative humidity. The progression of this front will be
closely monitored with future outlook issuances.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 061742
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
GEORGIA...
A small Critical area was added over south-central Georgia where
afternoon northeasterly winds will approach 15-20 mph combined with
RHs of 20-30%. These weather conditions will also exist farther to
the south and west as well. However, recent accumulating rainfall
and anticipated additional precipitation over this area
today/tonight will preclude any extension in that direction with
this forecast issuance. This region will continue to be monitored
for necessary adjustments as the evolution of preceding
precipitation affects fuels receptivity. Over eastern Wyoming, brief
marginally elevated wind/RH remain in the forecast. Given the recent
snow cover and questionable fuel receptivity, the overall fire
environment is not expected to result in any highlights over the
central High Plains on Day 2/Tuesday.
..Stearns.. 04/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging over the West will continue to dampen on Day
2/Tuesday as an incoming trough over the Pacific Northwest moves
eastward along the Canadian border and a second mid-level shortwave
trough ejects eastward over the southern Great Plains. This will
favor largely zonal flow across much of the central/northern
Rockies. At the surface, a cold front will shift offshore of South
Florida, with high pressure in place across the Midwest. A surface
low will simultaneously shift eastward along the Canada/Montana
border.
...Portions of eastern Georgia into the Florida Panhandle...
Sustained northeasterly winds of 10-15 mph along the southern
periphery of a surface high positioned across the Great Lakes region
are forecast to overlap reduced RH values of 25-35% (locally lower)
during peak mixing Tuesday afternoon. With receptive fuels in place
across a region characterized by ongoing extreme/exceptional drought
and little to no precipitation accumulation over the past 24-48
hours, this is expected to promote a few hours of elevated to
locally critical fire weather conditions from eastern Georgia
southwestward into the central Florida Panhandle, including the
Apalachicola National Forest. Additional light rainfall is possible
tonight/tomorrow across portions of the northern Florida Peninsula
into the eastern Panhandle (in the vicinity of the southern portions
of the drawn area), and this will be monitored for future outlook
issuances.
...Portions of the central High Plains...
The aforementioned zonal flow across portions of the
central/northern Rockies is expected to promote dry, downslope flow
across portions of the central/northern High Plains. Latest guidance
indicates that sustained westerly winds of 15-20 mph may briefly
overlap reduced RH of 15-20% Tuesday afternoon across portions of
eastern Wyoming. While this may promote locally elevated fire
weather concerns across the region, Elevated highlights have been
withheld at this time given the expected temporary overlap of
elevated winds/RH. Trends will continue to be monitored.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 062041
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 141200Z
An upper-level trough will be progressing eastward along the
Canadian border with the base of the jet over the northern Plains on
Day 3/Wednesday. A cutoff upper-level low approaches the California
coast simultaneously on Day 3/Wednesday. However, it's not until Day
5/Friday into Day 6/Saturday that the center of the low finally
moves onshore as a result of another trough moving across the
northern Pacific. By Day 7/Sunday, this upper-level low also cuts
off, sending the first cutoff low northeastward across the Great
Plains and Midwest by Day 8/Monday. This scenario is likely to
result in multiple days of precipitation across much of the western
and central US, which would temporarily dampen fire weather threats.
Sporadic areas of little to no precipitation will be possible, but
difficult to pin point due to the highly dynamic pattern.
...Southeast (Day 3/Wednesday)...
With surface high pressure still to the north over the eastern Great
Lakes, continued offshore flow will likely contribute to at least
elevated fire weather conditions across eastern Georgia and southern
South Carolina. This regime will result in northeast 10-15 mph winds
combined with RHs down to 25-35% during the peak heating period.
...Southern Plains (Day 3/Wednesday and Day 7/Sunday)...
Another day of tightened surface pressure gradient supports
south-southwest winds up to 15 mph and RHs down to 10-15% over
portions of the southern High Plains on Day 3/Wednesday. Much of
this region is favored for accumulating precipitation as the
aforementioned low pressure system ejects eastward across the
central portions of the CONUS next weekend. However, the latest
forecast guidance indicates that some locations may struggle to
accumulate much rainfall. If this trend holds true, future areas of
critical probabilities may be needed as the forecast becomes more
clear.
...Great Basin/Southwest (Day 3/Wednesday through Day 5/Friday)...
The best chances for sporadic fire weather conditions under the
southerly flow will occur on Day 3/Wednesday through Day 5/Friday
across areas of the eastern Great Basin and Southwest. However,
recent cooler weather, precipitation, and resultant questionably
receptive fuels will preclude any probabilities at this time. While
this event could promote a brief period of drier fuel conditions
across this region, additional precipitation also appears likely
with the aforementioned low pressure system later in the week.
..Stearns.. 04/06/2026
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