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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 301623
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Valid 301700Z - 011200Z
No changes to the previous outlook. A weak but consistent westerly
wind, south of nearly stationary frontal boundary draped over
northern FL, will continue across the FL Peninsula through today. A
subtle thermal trough will evolve across the FL Peninsula today,
resulting in a relative temperature maximum across east-central FL.
High temperatures in the lower 90s under partly cloudy skies should
support minimum RH reductions in the 30-35% range today. Coupled
with west winds of around 10 mph amid drought affected and receptive
fuels, an elevated fire weather threat exists across the central and
eastern portions of the FL Peninsula through the afternoon. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms associated with a nearly stationary
frontal boundary will remain across northern FL through today. A few
lightning ignitions and gusty outflow winds, potentially impacting
existing wildfires, will be the primary concern.
..Williams.. 04/30/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1201 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level Pacific low will move onshore the Baja Peninsula
and transition into an eastward projecting shortwave. Downstream, a
robust westerly 50-70 kt jet will emerge across central TX extending
into the Southeast this afternoon. Ample Pacific moisture transport
will encourage widespread wetting rains and a reduced fire weather
threat across much of the central and southern High Plains. Broad
upper troughing will become established over the Northeast, anchored
by a persistent closed upper-level low over southern Ontario. In the
Southeast, a weak, southward propagating weak cold front is expected
to stall over southern GA and northern FL, increasing precipitation
chances to where extensive drought and receptive fuels remain.
Conversely, high pressure ahead of this front will promote a warm,
dry airmass over Central FL where fire weather concerns reemerge
amid a very dry fuelscape.
...Central Florida...
Surface high pressure will maintain warm and dry conditions for much
of the FL Peninsula this afternoon ahead of a slow-moving,
quasi-stationary cold front draped across the Gulf Coast and
northern FL. A few thunderstorms are possible along this boundary,
mainly along and north of the Interstate 10 corridor. Lightning
ignitions are possible in areas that do not see sufficient rainfall,
and resultant gusty/erratic outflow winds from thunderstorms could
further exacerbate any new/ongoing fires. South of the front, an
Elevated fire weather threat exists where westerly winds of up to 10
mph will partially overlap a region of 25-35 percent RH amid drought
stressed fuels.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 301923
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...Florida Peninsula...
Westerly flow south of a cold front over the northern Gulf Coast and
northern FL, will bring elevated fire weather concerns to the
central FL Peninsula Friday. Sufficient boundary layer mixing
despite the presence of a few clouds should support minimum RH of
30-35% (locally 25%) in most inland locations in central/eastern FL,
where temperatures reach into the lower 90s. West winds of around 10
mph combined with low RH and dry, receptive fuels (ERCs in the
90-97th percentiles) will generate elevated fire weather conditions,
where Elevated Highlights have been slightly expanded based on
latest forecast guidance.
..Williams.. 04/30/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1202 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026/
...Synopsis...
A ridge of high pressure will shift east over the Great Basin as a
closed low develops offshore the Pacific Northwest. An amplifying
upper trough across the Eastern Seaboard will dig southward and
amalgamate with a subtropical shortwave traversing the Gulf Coast
region, further enhancing westerly flow aloft for much of the
Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic. Widespread precipitation over the
southern Plains on Friday is expected to provide much needed relief
to an extensively dry fuelscape. Prolonged dry and breezy conditions
across the Florida Peninsula will continue fire weather concerns
where drought-stressed fuels exist.
...Central Florida...
Ahead of a stalled frontal boundary draped over northern FL, steady
westerly flow and a relatively dry airmass amid receptive fuels will
pose a fire weather threat on Friday afternoon for the FL Peninsula.
In response to increasing subtropical moisture aloft, high cloud
cover will build across the Peninsula throughout the afternoon.
However, some breaks in the clouds should allow for deeper mixing
into a dry boundary layer. Elevated highlights have been introduced
where RH values are expected to drop between 25-35 percent at peak
heating while westerly winds increase to 10 mph atop dry fuels.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 302119
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0419 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 081200Z
...Synopsis...
An amplifying upper trough across the eastern U.S. and deepening
surface low near the Carolina Coast will lead to dry and breezy
conditions south of a cold front, increasing the fire weather threat
across FL on Day 3/Saturday. The cold front and associated rainfall
will finally advance southeastward over the weekend, providing a
temporary fire weather reprieve not only to Florida but to much of
the Southeast and portions of the Mid Atlantic. A cold front
sweeping southeastward under broader northeasterly flow should bring
stronger west-northwest winds and low RH to portions of the northern
Plains on Day 3/Saturday. Dry and breezy conditions return to the
Southwest Day 4/Sunday and Southern High Plains Day
5-6/Monday-Tuesday as upper low gradually shifts into the region.
...Day 3/Saturday...
...Florida...
Stronger west winds of 15 mph (locally 20 mph) ahead of a cold front
advancing southeastward from the northern Gulf Coast will bring a
fire weather threat to the FL Peninsula on Day 3/Saturday. RH
reductions could be limited to 35% locally due to increasing cloud
cover but fuels remain very receptive amid expanding drought where
40% critical probabilities remain.
...Northern Plains...
A mid-level short wave will translate southeastward into the
Northern Plains from the southern Canadian Prairies on Day
3/Saturday. At the surface, a cold front extending southwestward
from a parent low across ND will sweep into the eastern MT and
Dakotas. Dry and breezy conditions ahead of the cold front combined
with dry fuels could allow for heightened fire weather concerns
across southwestern ND, northwestern SD and southeastern MT, where
recent rainfall has been minimal and fuels remain dry. 40% critical
probabilities were introduced to account for this fire weather
threat.
...Days 4-6/Sunday-Tuesday - Southwest and Southern Plains...
Increasing southwesterly flow aloft should overspread the Southwest
and Southern Plains as a lee surface trough develops across the
southern Plains early next week. This will support dry and breezy
conditions across the Southwest on Sunday, with downslope drying and
enhanced winds evolving in the Southern High Plains Monday and
Tuesday. However, preceding widespread rainfall in the tonight and
Day 2/Friday time frame in addition to ongoing green up across the
region should limit the impact of an otherwise enhanced fire weather
concern.
..Williams.. 04/30/2026
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