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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 241625
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 241700Z - 251200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO FRONT
RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
...Southwest and Southern/Central Plains...
No changes to Critical highlights were made across CO. Poor
overnight relative humidity recoveries were noted in surface
observations across the central and southern High Plains, even more
so across the central and southeastern NM where RH failed to reach
25%. A lee surface cyclone across eastern CO and southward extending
trough into the central High Plains, coupled with modest deep layer
westerly flow will contribute to dry and breezy conditions through
the afternoon. Downslope drying and enhanced winds from the west and
southwest of 15-25 mph are likely across the central and southern
High Plains, with the driest boundary layer conditions during peak
heating across eastern CO where single digit RH values are likely.
These atmospheric conditions combined with very dry fuels will bring
critical fire weather conditions to portions of central and much of
eastern CO today. Locally critical thresholds are possible (20 mph
west winds and RH of 10-15%) in favored terrain gaps and in the
immediate lee of the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains
across eastern NM.
A slight westward extension of broader Elevated highlights across
much of the Southwest was incorporated into portions of the Grand
Canyon and AZ Strip areas. Above average ERC values remain across
the northwestern AZ, with several days of drying contributing to
increased fuel receptivity. Southwest winds of 15-20 mph and
relative humidity in the 15-20% range will bring an elevated fire
weather threat to the area this afternoon.
See previous discussion for additional forecast details.
..Williams.. 04/24/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026/
...Synopsis...
The upper-level ridge situated over the eastern U.S. is expected to
dampen, giving way to a predominantly zonal flow pattern across the
southern tier of the CONUS. Simultaneously, a broad upper-level
trough will remain anchored over the north-central U.S. near the
international border. This setup will maintain a very breezy and
persistently arid environment through the conclusion of the work
week across the Southwest and the central/southern High Plains.
...Southwest and Southern/Central Plains...
Critical fire weather conditions have been highlighted for the
Colorado Rockies and the neighboring High Plains, where latest
forecast guidance indicates a high likelihood of potent winds
coupled with low humidity. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis over
eastern Colorado will further enhance downslope winds along the
Front Range, while southwesterly winds prevail across the eastern
plains. Robust vertical mixing during peak heating is forecast to
descend 15-25 mph sustained winds to the surface. When combined with
relative humidity levels falling to 10-15% (and locally into the
single digits), these conditions will impact exceptionally dry fuels
already stressed by a multi-day stretch of fire weather activity.
While increasing cloud cover late in the day may offer some minor
mitigation of the threat before dusk, the fire environment remains
heightened. Consequently, Elevated highlights include much of the
Southwest and include the Four Corners region through western
Colorado. In these areas, westerly winds of 15-20 mph and humidity
levels below 20% will coincide with ERCs reaching the 75th to 90th
percentile.
...Carolinas...
As the eastern CONUS ridge breaks down, breezy westerly surface
winds (remaining under 10 mph sustained) can be expected over much
of the Carolinas today. While these conditions will not meet
criteria for elevated conditions, continued offshore flow will
likely result in RHs falling below 20% amid above-normal
temperatures over already dry fuels, keeping the fire environment
primed.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 240557
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...Synopsis...
A broad, large-scale upper level trough will be anchored near the
international border over the central US through the weekend. To the
east, the prevailing upper-level ridge will collapse on Day
2/Saturday as an approaching mid-level shortwave trough triggers
widespread precipitation over the Midwest and Appalachians. This
change is expected to provide some relief to the critically dry
fuels over these regions. However, for areas bypassed by appreciable
rainfall (especially east of the southern Appalachians), the fire
risk posed by lingering drought conditions will persist.
...Southern Plains into portions of the Southwest...
Zonal flow aloft will remain in place across the Southwest on
Saturday, sustaining very breezy and dry conditions. Following
several consecutive days of heightened fire weather, the fuel
environment remains highly stressed, especially over northern
extents of the drawn area. Westerly downslope winds of 15-20 mph
will coincide with relative humidity values of 10-20% over receptive
fuels, further aggravating the fire risk. Consequently, an Elevated
area exists for Day 2/Saturday across much of New Mexico, southeast
Arizona, and portions of west Texas where fuels are receptive. While
the dryline is expected to surge farther east across
southwest/central Texas, fuel conditions near and south/east of
Midland appear to be less receptive overall. However, this event
will work to dry fuels over this region and may promote future risk
across this area.
..Stearns/Moore.. 04/24/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 232110
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0410 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 011200Z
...Synopsis...
A large scale upper trough will persist over the central U.S. and
Canada border through Day 4/Sunday. An upper ridge over the eastern
U.S. will break down as a mid-level shortwave approaches on Day
3/Saturday and widespread precipitation chances return, bringing
much needed relief to exceptionally dry fuels across the Piedmont
and Southeast. A secondary shortwave trough will move into the
Southwest on Day 4/Sunday with increasing southwest flow aloft,
inducing lee cyclogenesis over the central Plains. This pattern
change will bring widespread chances for precipitation across
portions of the High Plains into the Upper Midwest and Mid-South
through Day 6/Tuesday. However, in areas that do not see appreciable
rainfall, fire weather concerns are expected to linger. Towards the
end of the forecast period, an additional low-amplitude trough is
forecast to approach the southwestern U.S. Given the overall
pattern, fire weather conditions should persist where fuels remain
receptive.
...Day 3/Saturday and Day 4/Sunday - Southern Plains into portions
of the Southwest...
As upper troughing persists across the north-central U.S., strong
zonal flow over the Southwest will encourage very breezy and
continued dry conditions on Day 3/Saturday. With preceding days of
Critical fire weather conditions, westerly downslope flow of 15-20
mph and 10-15 percent RH atop dry fuels will further exacerbate the
fire environment, supportive of 40% Critical probabilities on Day
3/Saturday. A strong mid-level disturbance is forecast to cross over
the High Plains on Day 4/Sunday, resulting in lee cyclogenesis over
portions of eastern CO and western KS. Behind an emerging dryline,
westerly downslope flow is expected to promote very strong winds and
critically low RH overlapping a dry fuelscape. Both 40% and 70%
Critical probabilities have been maintained to encompass the
expansive fire weather threat.
As the upper trough shifts east across the Midwest, a dry airmass
will persist over the Southwest and southern Plains early next week.
Breezy conditions may emerge in advance of an approaching upper
trough later in the forecast period, albeit model guidance varies in
the timing and strength of the overall upper pattern. Thus, guidance
ambiguity precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/23/2026
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