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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 091618
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026
Valid 091700Z - 101200Z
...Morning Update...
No changes were made to the previous forecast. Poor overnight
humidity recoveries over the northeastern NM plains and current RH
hovering around 20 percent are expected to maintain Elevated fire
weather conditions this afternoon as southwesterly winds increase to
15 mph across the area. Forecast soundings portray a dry sub-cloud
layer beneath increased mid-level moisture, supportive of strong and
erratic wind gusts with any thunderstorms that manage to develop. In
addition to isolated convection, very sparse lightning ignitions
cannot be ruled out.
In parts of the Northeast, morning surface observations are
reporting widespread RH of 25-35 percent with increasing southerly
sustained winds up to 10 mph. Locally elevated fire weather is
possible this afternoon as winds are forecast to increase to 15 mph
(locally higher within the Hudson/Champlain Valleys). However,
increasing mid and high level clouds may dampen the fire
environment, and given questionable fuel receptivity, elevated
highlights have been withheld.
See the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Stearns.. 04/09/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026/
...Synopsis...
Largely zonal flow will persist across much of the Rockies today,
with upper-level ridging across much of the Intermountain West and a
closed upper-level low approaching the northern California
coastline. At the surface, a frontal boundary positioned across the
central Great Plains will shift northward as a warm front today
before moving back southward as cold front tonight. A trailing
dryline will also extend southward across the central/southern High
Plains.
...Portions of the southern High Plains...
A weak surface low positioned over southeastern Colorado is forecast
to favor sustained southwesterly winds around 15 mph across portions
of the southern High Plains behind the dryline. While passing
mid/high clouds may temper the overall fire environment to some
extent, minimum relative humidities are forecast in the 15-20% range
during peak mixing. With dry fuels across the region, this should
promote at least a few hours of elevated fire weather concerns for
northeastern New Mexico, the northwestern Texas Panhandle, and the
western Oklahoma Panhandle.
Increased mid-level moisture atop deep, dry boundary layers may also
support the development of isolated, high-based convection across
this region this afternoon. While little precipitation is expected
with any storms that do develop due to PWATs on the order of a half
inch or less and LCLs approaching 4 km AGL, erratic downburst winds
will be possible. With forecast soundings indicating the presence of
50-150 J/kg MLCAPE, a few lightning ignitions cannot be ruled out.
However, given the very isolated nature of storm development and the
potential for wetting rainfall on D2/Friday, dry thunderstorm
probabilities have been withheld.
...Portions of the Great Basin/Southwest...
Southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph (locally higher in terrain favored
areas) are forecast to coincide with low RH of 15-20% across much of
the southern Great Basin/Southwest. This combination of winds/RH may
promote locally elevated fire weather concerns, but recent cooler
weather, precipitation, and resultant marginal fuels are expected to
preclude widespread fire weather concerns at this time.
...Portions of the Northeast...
Surface high pressure shifting offshore of the Northeast coupled
with low pressure in the vicinity of James Bay will promote a
tightened pressure gradient and sustained 10-15 mph southerly winds
across portions of the Northeast this afternoon (locally higher
within the Hudson/Champlain/Connecticut River Valleys). While
minimum RH values are forecast around 25-35%, questionable fuels
preclude any introduction of Elevated highlights. This combination
of weather conditions may support fire spread within pockets of
drier fine fuels, however.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 091909
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...Afternoon Update...
No changes were made to the previous forecast. In eastern UT and
western CO, seasonably warm temperatures and low RH on Day
1/Thursday will promote short-term fuel preconditioning for Elevated
fire weather conditions on Day 2/Friday. While mid and high level
clouds are expected to increase across the risk area throughout the
day, very low RH of less than 15 percent and southerly winds of
15-25 mph (gusts up to 35 mph) atop dry fuels will maintain broader
fire concerns.
Farther east, portions of northern KY and southern OH may experience
locally elevated fire weather conditions for a few afternoon hours.
Ahead of an approaching cold front, westerly sustained winds of up
to 10 mph (gusts of 15-20 mph) combined with RH dropping to near 35
percent are expected to overlap a region of drying and potentially
receptive fuels. ERCs in northern KY are approaching the 97th
percentile as 10-hr and 100-hr fuel moistures are forecast to be
within the 10th percentile. While winds will shift out of the north
with the late afternoon cold front arrival, increasing moisture and
decreasing wind speeds into the evening hours should provide some
relief to the fire environment, precluding the introduction of
elevated highlights.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Stearns.. 04/09/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026/
...Synopsis...
A large upper-level trough approaches the California coast on
D2/Friday as another upper trough traverses the Great Lakes into the
Northeast. Simultaneously, upper ridging will persist across the
Rockies and eastern Great Basin, with zonal flow continuing across
the Great Plains. At the surface, a slow moving cold front will
progress southeastward across the Ohio River Valley and Northeast
with high pressure building into the Great Lakes/Midwest.
...Portions of the Great Basin...
A tightened surface pressure gradient will favor sustained southerly
winds of 15-25 mph across much of the eastern/southern Great Basin
on D2/Friday. Despite some mid/high cloud cover, RH values are
forecast to fall to 15-20% (locally down to 10%) during peak mixing
Friday afternoon. With preconditioned, drying fuels from
D1/Thursday, this combination of winds and RH is expected to support
elevated fire weather conditions across much of eastern Utah into
west-central/northwestern Colorado. Deep boundary layer mixing and
modestly strong mid-level flow (25-35 kts within the 700-500 mb
layer) will also support the potential for occasional gusts to 35
mph across this region. Expected precipitation arrival on Saturday
may provide relief to any ongoing or new fire starts.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 092212
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0512 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 171200Z
...Synopsis...
On Day 3/Saturday through Day 4/Sunday, an upper-level low is
forecast to move onshore of the northern California coast as an
upper-level ridge strengthens over the central and eastern CONUS. A
lee-surface low ejects off the Rockies on Day 5/Monday, slowly
shifting across the Midwest and Great Lakes region by Day
7/Wednesday. This scenario is likely to result in multiple days of
precipitation across much of the western and central US, which would
temporarily dampen fire weather threats. Continued upper-level
ridging through Day 6/Tuesday across the eastern CONUS should
promote above normal temperatures and drying conditions for much of
the region, though increased chances of precipitation return towards
the middle of next week as the upper trough shifts east.
...Ohio River Valley - Day 4/Sunday...
Increasing potential for 10-15 mph southerly winds and 30-40 percent
RH will present potential fire weather concerns across northeastern
AR into portions of the Ohio River Valley. Parts of this region
range from D2-D4 drought, and given widespread observed ERCs above
the 90th percentile, 40 percent probabilities for Critical fire
weather have been introduced. The expanse of the drawn area may be
adjusted in future outlooks as guidance evolves the northward extent
of gulf moisture advection.
...Southern/Central Plains - Day 4/Sunday through Day 6/Tuesday...
Fire weather conditions may return on Day 4/Sunday as a more potent
shortwave moves across the High Plains. With uncertainty in
precipitation accumulation and the extent of wetting rainfall
earlier in the forecast period, probabilities have been withheld on
Day 4/Sunday for now. Beneath the large upper trough, tight surface
pressure gradients Day 5/Monday-Day 6/Tuesday will further enhance
dry and windy conditions behind the dryline. 40 percent
probabilities of Critical fire weather have been introduced on both
days to account for these concerns.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Stearns.. 04/09/2026
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