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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 030653

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0153 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Behind the departing eastern US trough, strong northwesterly flow
   aloft will develop over the central CONUS north of a cut off low
   over the West Coast. A shortwave trough embedded within the
   northwest flow will move south out of Canada, deepening a surface
   cyclone near the international border. A cold front tied to the low
   will also move south with dry conditions and strong winds associated
   with it.

   ...Northern Plains...
   An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to deepen as it moves
   out of southern Canada into the northern US today and tonight. At
   the surface, an associated low will intensify as it traverses
   south-central Canada. The low is forecast to deepen as it moves
   eastward across southern Canada, promoting dry and breezy conditions
   ahead of a southward progressing cold front. Gusty winds of 20-30
   mph are expected, along with RH below 25%. Widespread dry and breezy
   conditions over a dry fuelscape should promote elevated fire-weather
   potential. Some brief locally critical conditions are also possible
   given the stronger gusts over parts of western ND and eastern MT.
   However, high clouds and marginal RH value should limit the areal
   and temporal extent of the more critical conditions.

   ...Southern Plains...
   Dry and breezy southerly flow is expected over parts of western OK
   and the TX Panhandles south of a shortwave trough. South/southwest
   gusts of 20-25 mph are possible during the afternoon. Afternoon RH
   values are expected to decrease to below 20% near a deepening lee
   cyclone. This could support some localized fire-weather concerns in
   pockets of dry fuels that have not received recent rainfall nor
   transitioned to green up. Notably, a very small region of the far
   northeastern TX Panhandle, eastern OK Panhandle, and northwestern OK
   have not seen measurable precipitation in the last 30 days with
   minimal (if any) transition to green up where high fuel loading
   exists. However, high cloud cover throughout the afternoon and the
   confined nature of the receptive fuels should limit broader
   fire-weather concerns. Still, the gusty winds and dry conditions
   will likely support drying of fuels into Days 2 and 3.

   ..Lyons.. 05/03/2026
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 030659

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0159 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   CORRECTED FOR MISSPELLED WORD

   ...Synopsis...
   Split mid-level flow will continue over the US Monday as the cut off
   low over the Southwest merges with a strengthening sub tropical jet
   stream. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will move out of the southern
   Rockies and over the Plains deepening a lee cyclone. This will
   promote dry and breezy conditions over parts of the southern Plains
   supporting elevated fire-weather potential.

   ...Southern Plains...
   Dry westerly flow is expected over parts of the southern Plains
   Monday as the southern stream upper trough begins to move into the
   Southwest. The deepening lee low will support strong west/southwest
   surface winds across parts of eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles.
   Warm temperatures and dry downslope westerly winds of 15-20 mph and
   15-20 percent RH will overlap a confined region of dry fuels,
   exacerbated by drying from the previous day. This should support
   several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions west of a
   developing dryline.

   ...Northern Plains/Midwest...
   Gusty post-frontal winds are likely Monday across the northern
   Plains and upper Midwest. However, cooler surface temperatures and
   cloud cover suggest weaker mixing and higher RH. Still, some pockets
   of drier air could support brief localized fire-weather concerns in
   pockets of dry fuels given stronger northwest winds.

   ..Lyons.. 05/03/2026


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 022127

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0427 PM CDT Sat May 02 2026

   Valid 041200Z - 101200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper low will move onshore the West Coast on Day 3/Monday, then
   transition to an open wave as it traverses the Southwest on Day
   4/Tuesday. Concurrently, an upper trough will sag into the Midwest
   and Great Lakes region before merging with southern stream troughing
   over the Mid-South on Day 5/Wednesday. This pattern will provide
   additional precipitation to the central Plains and portions of the
   Eastern U.S. through mid-week, dampening broader fire weather
   concerns. An upper ridge is expected to build across the Pacific
   Northwest on Day 5/Wednesday, likely resulting in above normal
   temperatures and dry conditions to prevail through the forecast
   period for much of western CONUS. 

   Fire weather conditions reemerge for portions of the southern Plains
   on Day 3/Monday as a deepening surface low tightens surface pressure
   gradients across eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. Downslope
   westerly winds of 15-20 mph and 15-20 percent RH will overlap a
   confined region of dry fuels, maintaining 40% Critical
   probabilities. Due to recent precipitation, probabilities were
   trimmed to exclude areas that received appreciable rainfall. Dry and
   breezy conditions may persist for parts of the Southern Plains into
   West Texas on Day 4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday as southwesterly flow aloft
   amplifies. However, guidance ambiguity in the placement of the upper
   trough and timing of an approaching cold front precludes the
   introduction of critical probabilities at this time. 

   As the upper trough traverses the Mid-South, increasing
   southwesterly flow and poor moisture return should promote dry and
   breezy conditions across the Mid-Atlantic on Day 4/Tuesday. However,
   critical probabilities have been withheld due to recent appreciable
   rainfall, marginal fuels, and expected moisture return overnight Day
   4/Tuesday into Day 5/Wednesday.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/02/2026
      




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