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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 250554
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN WYOMING
INTO FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...
...Synopsis...
Strong upper-level winds will remain across the northern CONUS
today. A surface low/lee trough will develop in the central/northern
Plains, extending southward through the High Plains as well. A
strong cold front will move into the northern Plains into Thursday
morning.
...Wyoming into far western Nebraska/South Dakota...
Critical fire weather is expected by the afternoon as strong
mid-level winds and an increasing surface pressure gradient promote
20-25 mph winds (higher speeds within the terrain). RH will fall to
around 15% amid downslope warming/drying.
Adjacent portions of the northern Rockies and the central Plains
will experience elevated fire weather. Winds will still be strong in
the northern Rockies, but RH may not reach much below 20%. In the
central Plains, a strengthening pressure gradient will increase
winds to around 15 mph at least locally. RH will be 15-20% during
the afternoon.
...Texas Panhandle/South Plains...
The lee trough will promote increasing southerly surface winds by
the afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph appear possible. On the western
flank of northward returning moisture, RH will fall to 10-20%.
..Wendt.. 03/25/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 250557
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
...Synopsis...
The strongest upper-level winds will persist within the northern
tier states on Thursday. Some amplification of the upper ridge is
expected in the West. Modest amplification of the upper trough over
southeaster Canada is also expected. Cooler air will move into much
of the CONUS by Friday morning.
...Central New Mexico...Texas Panhandle...northwest Oklahoma...
A cutoff low currently off the southern California coast will move
through the Southwest Wednesday and reach the southern Rockies/High
Plains Thursday afternoon. This feature will not be overly strong,
but will provide enhancement to the mid-level winds and help deepen
a surface low in the High Plains. This will promote 20-25 mph
surface winds. With very dry air remaining in the Southwest and
moving eastward, localized single digit RH is possible. More
broadly, 10-15% RH can be expected during the afternoon. Sustained
critical fire weather is most likely in these areas.
...Central Oklahoma into Flint Hills...
The exact degree of RH reductions within these areas remains
uncertain due to some moisture returning northward. However, mostly
clear skies are expected and warming temperatures (likely in the 90s
F given the current frontal progression forecast) will support RH
values of 20-30%. With the low-level jet centered over these
regions, winds of 15-25 mph (and stronger gusts) will promote
elevated to near critical fire weather conditions even with what
could be marginal RH reductions. The cold front will eventually move
southward and strong, gusty north winds will arrive in its wake.
Timing of the front will be mid/late afternoon for Kansas with
overnight into Friday morning for Oklahoma.
...Western Kansas...
Uncertainty in terms of the duration of fire weather concerns is
largest in this area. With the surface trough remaining here the
longest, weaker winds are expected for at least part of the day.
Ahead of the front, 15-20 mph may occur. Stronger northerly winds
are expected behind the front. As the front moves southward through
Wednesday into Thursday, some airmass modification appears probable
and the temperature drop behind the front will be more gradual. This
should allow for a secondary period of elevated to near critical
fire weather during late afternoon/early evening.
...Eastern Great Basin into the Southwest...
Ahead of a cold front, surface winds will increase across the
eastern Great Basin to 15-25 mph (locally higher). Across the
Southwest, weaker winds are expected due to the stronger mid-level
winds displaced farther north. There, only 15 mph is anticipated.
Elevated fire weather is forecast as fuels continue to dry.
..Wendt.. 03/25/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 242141
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0441 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
...Synopsis...
An embedded short wave will propagate eastward within a largely
zonal mid-level flow maxima across the northern CONUS amplifying
before reaching the Great Lakes and Northeast by Days
5-6/Saturday-Sunday. A more subtle mid-level perturbation moving
into the Southern Plains on Day 3/Thursday along with a deepening
lee surface cyclone and trailing cold front should support a broad
fire weather threat across the Southwest and Southern Plains.
Farther west, an upper-level ridge builds across the Western U.S.
over the weekend, before a more progressive upper-level wave pattern
evolves across the contiguous U.S. for next week, likely bringing
much needed increasing chances for precipitation across the
Intermountain West.
...Day 3/Thursday - Upper Colorado River Basin and Southern
Plains...
The approaching mid-level short wave and an evolving surface cyclone
sliding southward into the southern High Plains will support a dry,
downslope regime across much of the region. Alignment of breezy
west-southwest winds, low humidity, well above normal temperatures
south of the advancing cold front is most likely across eastern NM
into the TX Panhandle where a 70% critical area remains. The
surrounding 40% critical probability area was expanded into much of
the Upper CO River Basin where accelerated drying of fuels has been
observed amid successive days of record/near record setting high
temperatures over the past several days across the West. The cold
front will quickly sweep southward from NE Thursday morning,
reaching well into TX by Thursday evening. This should pose at least
an initial fire weather concern for potentially active fires with
abrupt northward wind shifts expected. North-northeast winds behind
the front will be strong, although colder temperatures and higher
relative humidity should mitigate the overall fire weather threat
overnight.
...Day 4/Friday - Central and Southern Plains...
A dry, post-frontal environment should encompass portions of the
central and southern Plains on Day 3/Friday. Despite cooler
temperatures, gusty north-northeast winds and low relative humidity
during peak heating amid very dry fuels will support at least an
elevated fire weather threat across southern KS, OK, into portions
of northwest TX and Panhandle regions, where a 40% critical
probability area was introduced.
...Day 5/Saturday - Central Plains and Portions of the Southeast...
A dry return flow pattern emerges across the Central Plains by Day
5/Saturday as surface high pressure slides into the OH River Valley
and lee troughing develops across the northern High Plains. This
should support a corridor of pronounced southerly flow across
portions of western KS/far eastern CO into NE and southern SD.
Widespread rainfall associated with the cold frontal passage on Days
3/Thursday is not expected with an expansive dry fuelscape remaining
largely intact. Dry, post-frontal northeasterly flow should enhance
fire weather concerns across portions of the Southeast where fuels
remain dry amid ongoing drought. Slight expansions were made to both
40% critical probability areas given latest model guidance
consensus.
...Day 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday...
Forecast guidance continues to suggest upper-level troughing
developing across the West early next week. Initial surge of
mid/upper level Pacific moisture within the increasingly southwest
flow and daytime instability over higher terrain could bring
thunderstorms back into the CO River Basin. However, deeper Pacific
moisture along with the arrival of more pronounced and progressive
mid-level trough could provide a better opportunity for more
widespread rain and higher elevation snow to much of the West by Day
8/Tuesday, temporarily reducing overall fire weather concerns.
Similarly, increasing boundary layer moisture streaming northward
into the southern and central Plains reduces predictability in
overlap of breezy and dry conditions precluding introduction of
critical probabilities.
..Williams.. 03/24/2026
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