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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 201659
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
Valid 201700Z - 211200Z
Broad northwesterly flow aloft ahead of an approaching mid-level
short wave will persist over the Southern Rockies. A deepening
surface low currently across the northern High Plains is still
expected to drop southward into southeastern CO by late afternoon.
Resultant downslope flow in the lee of the Rockies is supporting
current RH values below 10 percent across south-central CO. The dry
conditions and receptive fuels will combine with west winds of 15-20
mph to bring a elevated fire weather conditions to locations in the
lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southern CO through this
afternoon. A broader east-northwest wind field of 15-20 mph across
northeastern CO, southwestern NE, and northwest KS along with RH
reductions in the 15-20 percent range amid receptive fuels will
support an elevated fire weather threat today. Veering winds
associated with an advancing cold front will move into northeast CO
and vicinity by late afternoon, allowing for colder temperatures and
rising RH within northerly flow to diminish fire weather concerns
this evening.
..Williams.. 01/20/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026/
...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough and accompanying speed maximum will
cross the central Rockies during the afternoon, while an attendant
surface low tracks south-southeastward along the northern/central
High Plains. Related downslope flow will yield 10-15 percent RH
across much of the central High Plains, where around 20 mph
sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are
expected. These dry/windy conditions will favor elevated to locally
critical fire-weather conditions over northeastern CO, southwestern
NE, and northwest KS. A separate corridor of elevated fire-weather
conditions is expected in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
in southern CO, with locally critical conditions possible within the
gap flow areas. Between these two corridors, recent snowfall should
limit fire-weather concerns.
Elsewhere, modestly breezy northeasterly surface winds are expected
amid a dry antecedent air mass across parts of the western and
central FL Peninsula, where locally elevated fire-weather conditions
are possible.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 201948
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Central High Plains...
Broad northwesterly flow over the southern Rockies and lee surface
trough development across the central High Plains is expected
Wednesday. This will support localized dry and breezy downslope
westerly winds along the foothills and adjacent high plains of CO
Front Range and Sangre De Cristo Mountains into north-central NM.
Elevated fire weather conditions are likely to be limited to favored
terrain gaps where sustained winds of around 15 mph with higher
gusts align with RH in the 15-20% range and receptive fuels.
Farther north, another cold front moves into the Central Plains
Wednesday, bringing gusty northwest winds of 15-20 mph to far
northeastern CO and western NE. Increasing cloud cover, cooler
temperatures and RH reductions between 20-25% should limit overall
fire weather threat. Nonetheless, the breezy winds along with fuels
that remain quite receptive could bring a localized and brief
elevated fire weather threat to southeast WY, far northeastern CO
and southwestern NE Wednesday.
..Williams.. 01/20/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026/
...Synopsis...
Fire-weather concerns are minimal on Wednesday, as a cold air mass
begins to infiltrate the central U.S.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 202153
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
Valid 221200Z - 281200Z
Fire weather concerns are likely to remain minimal through early
next week across most of the contiguous U.S. An arctic air mass will
begin filtering into the northern U.S. on Day 3/Thursday, reaching
the Gulf and Atlantic Coast by Day 4/Friday, while an upper-level
trough facilitates bringing increasing East Pacific and Gulf
moisture into the Southwest and Southern Plains. A broad swath of
mixed precipitation, including significant snow accumulations, will
encompass much of the southern U.S. Day 4/Friday through Day
8/Tuesday mitigating fire weather concerns, particularly across the
southern High Plains where fuels remain dry. The FL Peninsula and
portions of the central Plains are likely to receive minimal
precipitation, aiding in keeping fuels on the drier side through the
weekend.
..Williams.. 01/20/2026
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