South Lake Tahoe, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Discussion - Wx Hazards - Wx Special Statements

Weather Forecast Discussion

596
FXUS65 KREV 301917
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1217 PM PDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* There are low chances for showers and storms this afternoon in
  Mono and Mineral counties. Otherwise, temperatures start to
  increase this weekend.

* Areas of smoke and haze may locally impact visibility and air
  quality the next several days due to fires west of the crest and
  in northern Washoe County.

* Thunderstorm chances return for much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

As of this writing, some cumulus clouds are starting to bubble up
along the higher terrain of Mono, Mineral, and Alpine counties.
Model soundings show about 0.5 inches of PWAT today, providing
just enough moisture, combined with the instability from daytime
heating, to get some isolated showers and thunderstorms today
(10-15% chance). However, this will be localized to Mono and
Mineral counties, with some showers possibly creeping into the
south of the Tahoe Basin. Storm chances will be similar in
probability and areal coverage Sunday.

As the weekend progresses, a high pressure starts to build over
southern Utah and northern Arizona. As this strengthens, afternoon
high temperatures are expected to rise into the low to mid 90s for
valley locations and mid 80s for Sierra communities through early
next week. As of now, Monday looks to be the warmest day in the
next week.

A shortwave low pressure off the coast of California throws some
uncertainty into the forecast, starting Tuesday. The
aforementioned high pressure will continue to build over the Four
Corners, helping to shuttle in monsoonal moisture. However, we`re
not expecting nearly as much moisture as we had earlier this week;
models are putting us at around 0.5-0.7 inches of PWAT. Due to
the increase in moisture, we can expect widespread chances
(20-40%) for afternoon showers and thunderstorms Tuesday. However,
as that low pressure tracks inland, and possibly northward, it
becomes negatively tilted. Model soundings are showing inverted-V
profiles, which hints at the possibility for dry thunderstorms.
Additionally, any storms that do develop will be fast-moving, due
to the jet associated with the inverted trough. Thus, concerns for
fire weather increase. The wrench in this whole thought process,
though, is the increase in moisture from the high pressure.

TLDR, storm chances increase Tuesday across much of the area and,
as of now, will be more hybrid in nature. This will bring the risk
for localized heavy rainfall, small hail, and gusty outflow winds. Stay
tuned for more details as we get closer.

-Giralte

&&

.AVIATION...

* Smoke filtering in from the Garnet Fire may bring periods of
  visibility reduction at KMMH. The Buffalo Fire in northern
  Washoe County may also bring visibility reductions to portions
  of western NV. Any other restrictions to visibility will be
  primarily slantwise due to haze aloft.

* Drier conditions for the weekend, with a 10-15% chance for a
  stray storm to form in Mono/Mineral Counties, impacting KMMH.
  Storm chances expand once again next week.

-Giralte/McKellar

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook

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