South Lake Tahoe, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Discussion - Wx Hazards - Wx Special Statements

Weather Forecast Discussion

705
FXUS65 KREV 060935
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
235 AM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

* Other than low chances for showers and thunder today and Monday,
  warm and mainly dry conditions persist through midweek.

* A cooling trend will bring near average October temperatures later
  in the week as an approaching trough brings increased winds with a
  low confidence rain potential.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure continues to influence our region from the Sierra
Crest east into the Great Basin region. Through the upcoming
week, little is going to change outside of the mostly continued
dry conditions, lighter westerly winds, and unseasonably warm
daytime temperatures.

* Although the region will remain mostly dry, weak short wave
  troughs lifting into the ridge will force pockets of energy and
  modest mid-level moisture into northeast California and the
  Sierra today and Monday. Taking advantage of higher terrain
  favored areas, shower and thunder chances increase to 10-20%
  during the afternoon hours today. Dont be surprised if a
  couple claps of thunder are heard in the eastern Sierra and
  portions of Mono County. HREF guidance shows the best chances
  (10-20%) for isolated storms staying mostly across northeast
  CA/northern Washoe County Monday afternoon.

* Outside the afternoon hours, winds will remain light and mostly
  diurnally driven less than 10 mph. During the afternoon look for
  those typical afternoon breezes to kick up with gusts 15-25 mph
  for most areas across western NV. Later in the week, a low
  pressure system lifting into the Pacific Northwest will drag an
  attendant cold front across northern CA into western NV as
  ensemble simulations project wind gusts to 25-35 mph on Friday,
  with higher Sierra ridges seeing gusts peaking close to 60 mph.

* Daytime highs in lower valleys will be at least 5-10 degrees
  above seasonal average for this time in October. Look for highs
  to stay in the mid to upper 80s for western NV valleys with
  some Sierra locations seeing highs topping in the low 80s. A
  true Indian Summer so to speak! Higher locations across Mono
  County will see the coolest highs that are projected to stay in
  the lower 70s through mid-week.

Although global ensemble simulations show increased shower
chances moving into northeast CA, and the far northwest corner of
Washoe County by late week, uncertainty remains high for any
definitive rainfall and temperature projections at this time.
Still, blended guidance shows a wide range of potential
temperature outcomes with simulations trending towards more
seasonal October temperatures by Friday accompanied with low
precipitation chances. Therefore, these nicer days are a good time
to finish up any last minute preparations for winter. Dont
worry, Im not asserting that the upcoming winter season will be
particularly harsh. Its always good to be prepared just in case.
-Amanda

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions prevail through at least the first few days of the
week with continued dry conditions and lighter westerly winds.
Winds will stay light and mostly terrain driven except becoming
breezy in the afternoon at the main terminals with gusts 20 kt or
less.

There will be some afternoon cumulus clouds today into Monday with a
low chance (10-20%) of showers and thunderstorms for the eastern
Sierra today and northeast CA on Monday. -Amanda

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

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