South Lake Tahoe, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Discussion - Wx Hazards - Wx Special Statements

Weather Forecast Discussion

196
FXUS65 KREV 021010
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
210 AM PST Fri Jan 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Drying out today, ridge winds increasing tonight.

* A stronger storm will bring periods of heavier Sierra snow and
  valley rain late tonight through early Monday, with possible
  flooding concerns in northeast CA.

* Additional storms could bring more snow chances to the Sierra,
  with rain and snow in lower elevations by mid-late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Our region is attracting system after system, with today being the
lone break in the action. Ridge winds will begin to increase this
evening into the overnight, when the next round of showers arrives.

Snow levels are hovering around 7500 feet near Colfax, CA this
morning, and with winds out of the south, that is not surprising.
Snow levels will be falling ahead of sunrise this morning to near
6500 feet, then increasing again this afternoon around 7000 feet,
only to fall generally to around 6500 feet again tonight, or so
the guidance indicates. That is when the southerly breezes
advecting warmer air make things interesting for Saturday, as snow
levels are projected to bounce to 7500 feet again during the
early morning hours and into the afternoon. Then, as though we
hadn`t already done this, snow levels fall Saturday night to
around 6000 feet. Temperatures will follow this trend, with a cool
day today leading into a slight warm up on Saturday, followed by
more cooling on Sunday. A caveat here is the recent guidance was
struggling to accurately depict snow levels with the Christmas
storm due to the influences of warmer sourced moisture interfacing
with a cold air region sourced trough. Whether the modeling
solutions will accurately reflect this system remains to be seen,
but this forecaster is encouraging caution when interpreting the
snow levels.

As for the showers, Saturday will see mostly rain with the higher
snow levels, and since we have added to the snowpack recently, we
are watching the rain on snow potential for the above mentioned snow
levels on the specified days and timeframe. Areal flooding is
possible, should the rain showers become heavier in nature. There
is a bit of uncertainty on exactly when the snow levels will fall
for Saturday, and timing will be critical. If the heaviest
showers arrive as rain, there may be minor flooding on area
streams such as the Susan and Feather rivers. However, should the
heavier showers arrive when the snow levels fall, it may fall as
wet snow, which would mitigate much of the flooding concern. This
will be closely monitored as the system draws nearer. Snow levels
addressed above will delineate who will receive snow, who will
see mostly rain, and the in-betweeners that will see a mix of
precipitation types through Saturday.

Sunday, the snow levels nudge closer to 5500 feet, and look to fall
to valley floors for early Monday morning. The piece of the puzzle
we will still need to solve will be where the moisture will be when
these colder temperatures arrive. Many ensemble solutions hint that
the bulk of the snow showers will be ongoing across the Sierra, with
limited spillover into western Nevada valleys. So, while the Monday
morning commute looks cold, we still need to work out where and if
there will be moisture to go with the cold air that would
produce snow on valley floors.

Beyond the beginning of the week, there exists more chances for new
systems to approach the region. For now, eyes are trained on the
horizon as a colder midweek system takes aim. HRICH

&&

.AVIATION...


* VFR conditions for western Nevada terminals, with increasing
  southerly winds of 10-15 kts possible by 21z. KTRK may see some
  patchy FZFG filter in after 12z, although a thick layer of cloud
  will need to move or erode.

* Gusty southerly winds increase around 00z to gusting 60 kts
  along ridges. LLWS will be present, especially for KTVL, KTRK
  and KMMH. The LLWS will mix down to western Nevada terminals
  after 06z Saturday. Expect turbulence and terrain obscurations
  to develop across the Sierra late Friday into Saturday. HRICH


  &&

.AVALANCHE...

A winter storm will bring periods of potentially significant snow
and windy conditions to all avalanche center terrain starting early
Saturday morning through Monday morning.

* Snow Levels: Starting around 6500-7000 ft and fluctuating through
  the day Saturday only to settle at a similar elevation Saturday
  night. Snow levels have been shifting during this forecast period,
  lowering confidence on actual snow levels and timing.

* Snow/SWE amounts: 1-3 feet with locally up to 4 feet for Mono
  County. SWE totals between 1.5" and 3", with a few sites receiving
  up to 4".

* Snow-Liquid Ratios (SLR): Higher density 7-10:1 Saturday, then
  becoming less dense with SLR`s increasing to 10:1 and possibly
  up to 13:1 with colder air and lower snow levels from early
  Sunday morning through Monday.

* Snowfall Rates: Steady at 0.5-1"/hour with periodic bursts of up
  to 2-3"/hour through the weekend, particularly across higher
  peaks.

* Ridge top winds: Gusts 70-90 mph, with stronger gusts up to 100
  mph for Sunday. HRICH

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM PST Monday
     NVZ002.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 1 PM PST Sunday NVZ004.

CA...Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Monday afternoon
     CAZ071.

     Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM PST Monday
     CAZ072-073.

&&

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook

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