South Lake Tahoe, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Discussion - Wx Hazards - Wx Special Statements

Weather Forecast Discussion

057
FXUS65 KREV 230858
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
158 AM PDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Cooler than average temperatures with overall dry conditions
  continue through Tuesday.

* There is a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms
  in the eastern Sierra from the Tahoe Basin southward through
  tomorrow.

* Temperatures return to seasonal averages by mid-week, then rise to
  above average by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper longwave trough continues to be in the area, but it is very
slowly moving east. Therefore, temperatures will start to warm up
today. It will still be below average for late June. The presence
of the low pressure system along with building instability in the
Sierra from the Tahoe Basin and southward, keeps the possibility
of showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow. We are still
looking at a 10-20% chance for this activity to develop in the
afternoon generally between 2PM to 7PM, give or take an hour or
two in the evening. The main concern with any storm will be gusty
and erratic outflow winds up to 45 mph, and brief periods of heavy
rain.

By midweek, the trough finally starts leaving the area as it moves
east. Afternoon temperatures will reach seasonal values, while
our chances for precipitation drop below 5% in the Sierra. I
would not rule out a stray shower/thunderstorm or two though,
especially over the crest in Mono county. The departure of the
trough and the approach of another shortwave trough in Oregon does
mean that winds return. However, not like last week at the moment.
Westerly winds return, especially for mountain ridges and slopes.
Gusts up to 30 mph are likely, especially the farther north you
go. Most populated areas only have a 10-30% chance of exceeding
35 mph.

The winds will continue during the second half of the week but
become more widespread. This likely means elevated fire weather
conditions as minimum relative humidity for western NV drops back
to below 15%. Furthermore, afternoon temperatures will hover in
the low 90s. Towards the end of the week and weekend, temperatures
will rise to above average again. Afternoon highs per NBM guidance
indicate western NV and northeast California valleys in the mid
to upper 90s, and Sierra communities in the upper 70s to upper
80s. At least we cool down about 30 degrees or more each night
bringing some relief.

-HC

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue along with light and VRB winds. Winds
become generally from the north and east with speeds up to 10 kts
and gusts up to 20 kts after 18Z. Winds subside around 03Z. Storm
chances continue around 10-20% for Sierra terminals this afternoon
and tomorrow. There is less than 10% chance for FG/FZFG through
15Z for KTRK. Chances for FG may increase tonight, if rain or storms
develop in the Martis Valley this afternoon.

-HC

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook

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