South Lake Tahoe, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Discussion - Wx Hazards - Wx Special Statements

Weather Forecast Discussion

638
FXUS65 KREV 121106
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
306 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Mostly fair weather is expected today with a few stray showers
  with either light rain or snow.

* Lighter winds and warmer temperatures will prevail on Friday and
  Saturday with low precipitation chances may return to NE CA as
  early as Saturday evening.

* Increased risk of winter storms return Sunday through the
  middle of next week potentially resulting in widespread travel
  impacts for the Sierra and for the lower valleys.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The upper low sits just off of the Bay Area as seen in nighttime
microphysics satellite imagery. This setup has resulted in stray
light rain and snow showers early this morning. The latest hi-res
model runs display the low slowly moving inland today weakening
and becoming more of an open wave. Therefore, expect brief and
light showers with minimal to no accumulations as the low runs out
of moisture to generate precipitation. Otherwise, we will be
mostly dry.

An upper level ridge from the Eastern Pacific will move inland
tonight. As the ridge progresses warmer temperatures and lighter
winds are expected by Friday. Furthermore, this will allow for
areas of freezing fog to develop in usual locations like the
Martis Valley. Harder to tell in valleys of western NV, at least
expect low clouds, but isolated areas of fog are possible in the
lowest valleys near water sources near sunrise on Friday morning.
Also expect warmer temperatures on Friday and Saturday; with
seasonal temperatures Friday and a few degrees above normal
Saturday.

The next longwave upper trough approaches on Saturday. Models
continue to push the system back towards Sunday and Monday. Still
by Saturday evening NE CA has a 10-30% chance of light rain/snow.
Chances of precipitation will continue to increase on Sunday along
the NE CA, the Sierra and the Sierra Front, but liquid amounts are
trending on the lighter side below 0.25" mountains, below 0.01"
far western NV. Accumulating snow could be potentially starting
in the Sierra by Sunday afternoon, but again light amounts.
Pretty much due to the low staying in the Eastern Pacific and
taking its time to make landfall. Details from Monday and beyond
become muddled due to a series of systems swinging through the
Sierra and into the Great Basin. However, what we know is that we
are going into a wet and cold period with gusty winds at times,
especially for ridgetops, as well as potentially significant
accumulations of snow across the Sierra. How much and where
specifically? We will have to wait for a few more model runs to
have a better understanding of the pattern once the hi-resolution
modeling starts processing this series of winter systems.

-HC

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions and generally light winds prevail over western NV
through tomorrow afternoon. There is a 10-20% chance for stray
light rain showers through 00Z that may reduce flight categories
briefly to MVFR. For the Sierra, low clouds dominate resulting in
MVFR to LIFR conditions along with periods of stray light snow
showers. KMMH starts with VFR conditions, but periods of low
clouds through the day may bring it down to MVFR. FZFG is likely
at KTRK and KTVL this morning through 16-18Z and again tonight
with a 40% chance of developing after 08Z through 16-18Z. Mountain
obscurations persist through this evening and slowly dissipate
tonight.

-HC

&&


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook

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