South Lake Tahoe, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Discussion - Wx Hazards - Wx Special Statements

Weather Forecast Discussion

608
FXUS65 KREV 011946
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1246 PM PDT Sun Jun 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Gusty southwest winds and dry air will continue into Monday,
  leading to localized critical fire weather conditions and
  hazardous recreation on regional lakes today.

* Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible each afternoon
  through Tuesday, mainly across Mono, Alpine, and Mineral Counties.

* Temperatures begin a gradual cooling trend today, with highs
  returning to near, but still above, seasonal normals by midweek
  along with improved overnight humidity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and a handful of thunderstorms are starting to pop up
in southern Mono and Mineral counties this afternoon. With a low
pressure dropping down off the coast of northern California, and a
low pressure centered over the Baja California coast, this has
primed the area for some deviant storm motion. Diffluence aloft
will allow for storms to continue to develop in southern Mono
today. Model soundings have DCAPE ranging between 850-950 J/kg,
with some soundings having over 1000 J/kg. Thus, the environment
is primed for brief, heavy downpours, gusty outflow winds, small
hail, and lightning. Showers and thunderstorms will start to
dissipate around sunset.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has much of our area, including
northern Lassen and Washoe counties, in general thunder for today.
Model guidance has trended down on possible showers in Lassen
county today but it`s not completely out of the question.

Aforementioned model soundings still show a relatively dry
surface layer. The 500 hPa pressure gradient is also a bit pinched
today, increasing wind gusts. In fact, afternoon wind gusts will
peak today at gusts up to 40 mph. Boaters and recreators across
area lakes, including Pyramid Lake, Mono Lake, Walker Lake, and
Washoe Lake, will see choppy lake conditions today. Thus, there is
a Lake Wind Advisory out until 9pm tonight. Dry conditions, the
threat for lightning, and gusty winds has resulted in critical
fire weather conditions across much of the area. A Red Flag
Warning remains in effect for W NV and the Eastern Sierra through
11pm tonight.

Afternoon shower potential (10-20%) continues through Wednesday
of this week, but primarily confined to Mono-Mineral counties. As
the trough off the PacNW coast drops down through early week,
afternoon high temperatures begin to drop. However, they will
still be above normal. Looking towards the weekend, we start to
warm back up, bringing the return of widespread Moderate HeatRisk.
Light winds and higher humidities return this week, reducing fire
weather concerns. Additionally, our normal zephyr afternoon
breezes return through this week.

-Giralte


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions prevail for all terminals today, except KMMH where
possible -TSRA may bring visibilities down to MVFR due to brief
heavy rainfall. Wind gusts areawide today range from 25-35 kts.
Erratic, gusty outflows from thunderstorms that develop today
(between 01/21Z-02/03Z) will primarily impact KMMH, but could
push north to influence KTVL, KMEV, and KCXP. Additionally, light
LLWS and mountain turbulence is likely today, but will be
primarily along the Sierra.

-Giralte

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire weather conditions peak today across the area due to
heightened winds and wider (in areal coverage) chances for showers
and thunderstorms today. Min RHs remain dry with locations across
W NV in the single digits and teens. Higher elevations along the
Sierra will see min RHs of 15-25%. Overnight recoveries in far W
NV Basin and Range will be poor (20-35%).

Afternoon wind gusts peak today, with gusts up to 40 mph areawide.
Combined with isolated dry lightning, holdovers and lightning
starts may be quick to run. Fire weather concerns start to decay
starting tomorrow, as humidities rise and lighter winds return.

-Giralte

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ420-421-429.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening NVZ001-003-004.

CA...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ274.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening CAZ071-073.

&&

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook

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