South Lake Tahoe, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Discussion - Wx Hazards - Wx Special Statements

Weather Forecast Discussion

938
FXUS65 KREV 130903
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
103 AM PST Sat Dec 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry weather, light winds, and unseasonably warm temperatures
  continue through this weekend.

* Hazy skies and minor reductions in air quality possible each
  morning across lower urban valleys along with patchy freezing
  fog in Sierra basins.

* A pattern change is expected to take place Tuesday, bringing
  increased winds and slight chances for precipitation primarily
  to the Sierra and northeast California.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Freezing fog is locked in again over Lake Tahoe and its surrounding
Sierra valleys this morning. We do have scattered cirrus moving in
this morning, although it may not be enough to tone back the fog
very much. However, daytime heating after sunrise today may be
enough to mix out the fog, although similar to yesterday there may
still be low stratus that linger just above the surface of the lake
this afternoon. Light winds this afternoon may not be enough to
fully mix out the low clouds over the lake. Other than that, today
and Sunday we`re going to be under a ridge that will keep us dry and
relatively warm for December.

The pattern starts to change next week with an initial brush by
shortwave Monday evening with a 20-30% chance of light rain across
northeast CA and Surprise Valley. Once that passes by, the main
system moves in Tuesday afternoon and lasts until Wednesday
afternoon. The wave of precip will work its way from north to south,
sweeping across the Sierra. Blended guidance has a 60% chance of the
storm total QPF exceeding 0.5" along the Sierra crest and up to a
40% chance of at least 1" of snow. The snow levels are expected to
hover around 9000-9500` during this storm, so just the highest peaks
have the greatest chance(40%) to see any snow.

When it comes to wind, the 700mb jet will max out around 60kt
Tuesday night causing Sierra ridges to potentially gust up to 100
mph. One thing we`ll monitor as time gets closer are the winds along
the Sierra Front early Wednesday morning. Indicators for downslope
winds aren`t really showing up as of right now, but once the hi-res
models start picking up on it we`ll have a better idea. But
regardless, the way it`s looking right now is gusts up to 35 mph
early Wednesday morning along the Sierra Front and 25-30 mph
elsewhere.

After Wednesday, confidence is increasing that the storm door will
remain open the rest of the week. Deterministic and ensemble models
are showing another atmospheric river type of storm moving in
Thursday and then again next weekend. CW3E`s GEFS IVT plume confirms
this as well, with a high probability of Pacific moisture extending
down to 37 deg N latitude. Looking further ahead, EC, CMC, and GFS
ensemble clusters continue to show a trough setting up off the west
coast towards the end of the month with slightly cooler upper level
temperatures. So there`s still a chance, albeit low, of a white
Christmas this year for the Sierra. We`ll monitor that as time gets
closer.

-Justin

&&

.AVIATION...

FZFG is locked in again this morning over KTRK and KTVL and should
burn off just after sunrise. Otherwise, light sfc winds and VFR
conditions continue through Sunday. Slantwise VIS restriction is
also a concern for western NV terminals due to haze from morning
valley inversions.

-Justin

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

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