South Lake Tahoe, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Discussion - Wx Hazards - Wx Special Statements

Weather Forecast Discussion

106
FXUS65 KREV 042013
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
113 PM PDT Mon May 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Showers and thunderstorms, with high Sierra snow showers, will
  continue into the evening.

* Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday
  afternoon, but chances and coverage decrease from today.

* Warmer and drier weather prevails Wednesday through weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Deepening cumulus and a few thunderstorms in far E Lassen/N Washoe
County, and across Mono, S.Lyon, and Mineral counties is noted in
latest satellite and radar obs. Farther east, a cluster of
thunderstorms in W Nye County is moving into Mineral County along an
eastward-propagating outflow boundary. This feature will move into
an increasingly unstable environment in W Nevada, maintaining
thunderstorm development along the outflow boundary as it moves
downstream towards the Reno/Tahoe region. While DCAPE values (200-600
J/kg) are marginal, a sharpening density current -- or temperature
difference between the ambient air ahead of the outflow boundary and
rain-cooled air behind it -- will pose a risk of strong to locally
severe wind gusts in W Nevada along/south of US-50, especially in
wind-prone locales. There is some uncertainty in how far west the
outflow boundary extends, but latest CAM guidance suggests that it
will reach the Reno/Tahoe Basin area between 4-6 PM PDT. Should this
occur, be prepared for stormy conditions during the evening commute.

Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to wane post-sunset,
but a few lingering showers and storms will be possible overnight
south of I-80 along a southward-advancing deformation zone.
Meanwhile, higher Sierra peaks (above 8000 ft) will receive 1-4" of
snowfall by Tuesday AM, with a 30-50% chance of 6" along the Sierra
crest in Mono County. Snowfall should remain above major open
passes, so travel impacts will be minimal, if any.

The low pressure responsible for our stormy weather the last few
days will translate southeastward Tuesday, shifting the focus for
showers and thunderstorms to areas south of I-80 Tuesday afternoon.
High pressure will overspread the region from midweek onward,
resulting in dry conditions and warmer temperatures as we head into
the weekend.

-Salas

&&

.AVIATION...

The primary concern today will be showers and thunderstorms with a
widespread 30-40% chance of a thunderstorm within 10 miles of all
terminals. Thunderstorm impacts -- especially sudden, strong wind
shifts -- are most likely at KRNO-KCXP-KMEV and KTRK-KTVL between
23Z and 02Z. Other impacts include frequent lightning, small hail,
and brief downpours/MVFR conditions. Thunderstorm activity wanes
after 03Z with some lingering showers and isolated storms overnight.

-Salas

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook

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