South Lake Tahoe, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Discussion - Wx Hazards - Wx Special Statements

Weather Forecast Discussion

080
FXUS65 KREV 221947
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1147 AM PST Thu Jan 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Gusty northeast to east ridge winds return late Friday through
  Saturday night, with chilly breezes for lower elevations.

* Saturday will be the coldest day of the upcoming week, with
  hazardous wind chills near or below zero degrees for Sierra
  backcountry areas.

* A slow warming trend with valley inversions resumes next week,
  then a weak weather system brings chances for light showers
  mainly near the Sierra by mid-late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today continues a similar quiet weather pattern, although a
thinning of this morning`s thick cloud cover should allow
temperatures to warm up by a few degrees compared to yesterday.
For the first time in about 2 weeks, much of the freezing fog
around Mono Lake has diminished, with weather stations around the
Lee Vining area climbing above freezing for the first time since
the early January snow event.

Most of the region remains between weather systems through the
rest of today, except for far southern Mono County being clipped
by the outer edge of a closed low off the southern CA/Baja coast.
The effects will be minimal, with 10-20% chances for a few snow
flurries and sprinkles from Mammoth Lakes/Mammoth Mountain
southward through early this evening. This low will eventually
move inland across Baja/northwest Mexico this weekend with no
further weather impacts to the eastern Sierra.

Meanwhile, a back-door cold front will march southward across
eastern CA-western NV Friday afternoon and night. This will be
accompanied by an uptick in N-NE breezes across lower elevations,
followed by stronger NE-E Sierra ridge top winds overnight
through Saturday night, with peak gusts near 50 mph projected
during the day Saturday. When combined with the colder air mass,
wind chills for higher backcountry elevations could dip to near or
below zero degrees at times from Saturday morning through
Saturday night. Anyone planning recreation activities in the high
Sierra this weekend should have plenty of winter weather gear
handy to avoid frostbite or hypothermia.

For lower elevations, the main effect of this front will be on
Saturday with a notable temperature drop as daytime highs only
reach the lower-mid 40s, slightly below late January averages.
Lows for Saturday night plunge into the teens and single digits
for typically cooler valleys. N-NE winds won`t be particularly
strong with gusts generally 15-20 mph, but will add some extra
chill especially for the US-95 and US-6 corridors of Mineral/SE
Mono counties, where these winds will be more persistent. These
winds should mix out most of the haze and inversions Saturday,
but this will be short-lived.

From Sunday through the early next week, we`ll see a return of
valley inversions as light winds prevail, although this high
pressure ridge is less amplified compared to the mid-January
pattern, limiting the inversion strength. Temperatures slowly rise
each day starting Sunday, returning to the lower-mid 50s for
western NV valleys and 40s for Sierra communities by Tuesday.

The next weather system is projected to reach CA/NV around the
late Wednesday-Thursday time frame, but the majority of the
ensemble guidance favors a weaker system with light precip
amounts. Shower chances for the eastern Sierra/Tahoe regions
(leaning toward snow) and northeast CA (mainly rain) are currently
around 15-25%, dropping to less than 15% for western NV. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions and light winds will continue through much of
Friday with valley haze reducing slantwise visibility around the
western NV terminals. Dry conditions prevail except for a low
10-20% chance for -SHRA/-SHSN at KMMH thru 02Z this evening. Most
of the thicker mid-high level cloud cover thins out this
afternoon, but another band of clouds sweeps through tonight. This
will limit freezing fog chances to about 20% around KTRK mainly
between 10-15Z Friday, more of the patchy and shallower type.

A cold front brings a slight increase in N-NE breezes into
western NV Friday afternoon with gusts remaining below 20 kt. For
Friday night, a band of lower cloud cover may bring MVFR CIGS to
Sierra/Tahoe terminals and obscuration of higher terrain around
the western NV terminals. Sierra ridge wind gusts increase Friday
night with peak gusts to 45 kt on Saturday, producing areas of
turbulence near and west of the Sierra crest. MJD

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook

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