828
FXUS66 KSTO 232048
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1248 PM PST Sun Nov 23 2025


.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Dry conditions prevail this week, with periods of breezy
   offshore flow and morning Valley fog

 - Seasonable temperatures and dry weather favored for
   Thanksgiving Day

 - Potential for unsettled weather to return this weekend, but
   confidence is very low on details, impacts, and timing

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Today-Friday...
GOES-WEST imagery reveals lingering dense fog at the time of this
writing. As we move into the afternoon, fog will continue to lift
and dissipate. Visibility and cloud decks at Valley airports have
shown steady improvements so our Dense Fog Advisory was allowed to
expire at 11AM this morning. With upper level ridging dominating
the pattern, coupled with recent rains and clear night skies,
similar foggy conditions are expected tomorrow (Monday) morning.
Will likely issue another Dense Fog Advisory for the Valley/Delta
later this afternoon. Outside of the morning fog, seasonable high
temperatures with periods of offshore winds are expected to
continue through the week. Some morning frost is possible in the
Redding area through Tuesday morning as well.

...This Weekend...
Cluster analysis and ensemble guidance continue to suggest the
potential for the upper level ridge to break down and for low
pressure to develop and approach the West Coast. Confidence is
very low on details, impacts, and timing, but there is a chance
for unsettled weather to return to the region this weekend (or as
early as Saturday). There is quite a spread in possible outcomes
but we will be keeping a close eye on how this trends. Latest
model runs keep any activity confined to the higher elevations and
very light, possibly even non-impactful at this time. Be sure to
check back for updates and for local forecast information at
weather.gov/sto.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mostly VFR conditions through around 06z Sunday, then
visibilities in the Valley will gradually decrease over the next
several hours. MVFR conditions through about 10z, then 60-80%
chance for IFR to LIFR conditions in the southern Sacramento and
northern San Joaquin Valleys, and a 20-50% chance for the same in
the central and northern Sacramento Valley. Variable winds
generally less than 12 kts across interior NorCal for the next 24
hours.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$