ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
NNNN
    

461 
AXNT20 KNHC 140959
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Jun 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W, south of 16N, and
just SW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving westward around 10 kt. 
A few showers are observed near the wave axis.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W, from the Mona
Passage south of 18N to western Venezuela, moving westward at
10-15 kt. A few showers are observed near the wave axis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68.5W, south of 17N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are present near the
wave axis, with a large cluster of deep thunderstorms ahead of the
wave over NW Venezuela and portions of Colombia.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W, south of 18N,
extending across eastern Honduras, Nicaragua and western Costa 
Rica, into the eastern Pacific. The wave is moving westward at 
around 10 kt. A few showers near the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 08N30W. The
ITCZ extends from 08N30W to 06N35W, then resumes W of a tropical
wave near 05N39W to the coast of Brazil at 02N51W. No significant
convection is evident along the monsoon trough or ITCZ, except
near the coast of Brazil from the Equator to the ITCZ, W of 48W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An upper level trough extends from the central United States 
southward across Texas and NE Mexico, and the adjacent Gulf 
waters, and is providing unstable conditions to the east of the 
trough. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the
northern Gulf waters. At the surface, a surface trough is 
analyzed in the SW Gulf west of the Yucatan Peninsula with 
scattered thunderstorms south of 22N. The rest of the Gulf is 
mainly influenced by the western periphery of the Atlantic 
subtropical ridge, extending westward across Florida and into the 
central Gulf. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower 
pressures in Mexico result in moderate to fresh SE winds over much
of the western and central Gulf waters. Seas in the area 
described are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 
slight seas prevail, locally 3-5 ft in the Straits of Florida. 

For the forecast, Atlantic ridging will extend westward across 
the Gulf through the next several days. Fresh northeast to east 
winds are expected each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan
Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough 
develops daily and moves westward. Moderate to fresh southeast 
winds are forecast elsewhere in the western and south- central 
Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds across the remainder of the 
basin. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern portion of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough
extends from Costa Rica into the SW Caribbean through a 1010 mb
low pressure area near 11N81W to the coast of Colombia near
10.5N75W. Scattered thunderstorms are present near the low.

The pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high
pressure centered just east of Bermuda and lower pressure over 
Colombia and the SW Caribbean continues to support fresh to 
locally strong easterly trade winds across the eastern and 
central Caribbean, and near the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these 
waters are 5-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight
to moderate seas are prevalent, except locally fresh winds through
the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N 
of the basin and relatively lower pressures in the Caribbean and 
in northern South America will maintain fresh to strong trades and
moderate to rough seas over most of the central and west-central 
Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to fresh 
to strong speeds near the Gulf of Honduras during the evening and 
overnight hours, with greater coverage of these winds expected to 
begin on Mon, with passage of a tropical wave. Moderate to fresh 
winds will prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba and the SW
Caribbean where gentle to moderate winds are expected through 
early next week. Mostly fresh trades will remain over the Tropical
N Atlantic zones through early next week. Moderate to locally 
rough seas with these winds will gradually subside through 
tonight. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information on
tropical waves present in the basin. 

The broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic dominates
the tropical Atlantic waters. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support moderate to
fresh easterly winds south of 22N and west of 40W, including
through the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. In
the eastern Atlantic, moderate to locally strong N-NE winds and 
seas of 6-9 ft are noted north of 20N and east of 20W. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging will be the main 
feature controlling the wind regime across the region into next 
week, keeping fairly benign marine conditions. Pulsing fresh to 
locally strong winds are expected north of Hispaniola to near 22N 
during each late afternoon and at night through early next week. 

$$
Lewitsky
  

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Dalila, located in the eastern Pacific basin off the coast of 
southwestern Mexico.

1. Offshore of Central America and Southeastern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, has 
formed just off the Pacific coast of Costa Rica and is producing 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for gradual development of the low, and a tropical 
depression could form by the middle of next week while moving 
westward or west-northwestward just offshore the coasts of El 
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Berg
    

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140940
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Jun 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Dalila is centered near 15.9N 103.9W at 14/0900
UTC, moving northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt. Seas of 12 ft and greater extend outward to 135 
nm to the northeast, and near the Mexican coast, and up to 330 
nm across the southeast quadrant. Peak seas are estimated at 17 
ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection extend from 13N to 20N
between 97W and 108W, including along the Mexican coast. A 
northwest general motion is expected to continue through today. A
gradual turn toward the west is expected tonight and Sunday. On 
the forecast track, the center of Dalila is forecast to move 
parallel to, but offshore of, the southwestern coast of Mexico. 
Some additional strengthening is expected today. Weakening is 
forecast to begin Sunday. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest T.S.
Dalila NHC Forecast Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 13N98W, then resumes 
west of T.S. Dalila near 12N111W to 06N136W. The ITCZ extends 
from 06N136W to beyond 06N140W. Aside from the convection 
associated with T.S. Dalila, scattered to numerous moderate to 
strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 81W and 91W, 
and from 06N to 11N between 108W and 124W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on 
Tropical Storm Dalila, located a few hundred miles southwest of 
Acapulco, Mexico.

Broad cyclonic flow associated with Dalila dominates the SW
Mexican offshore waters. Elsewhere, a broad and weak ridge 
extends from a 1029 mb high centered well NW of the area near 
39N138W to just west of Guadalupe Island. This continue to 
support gentle to moderate NW winds across the offshore waters of
Baja California where seas are 5 to 7 ft in NW swell. Light to 
gentle winds are ongoing in the Gulf of California with seas less
than 3 ft, except in the entrance of the Gulf where seas are 3 
to 5 ft. Light to gentle winds are also across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec with seas to 10 ft in mixed swell. 

For the forecast, T.S. Dalila will move NW today and gradually 
strengthen to 55 kt. Dalila will move to 16.7N 105.0W this 
afternoon, 17.6N 107.1W Sun morning, 18.0N 109.3W Sun afternoon, 
18.1N 111.2W Mon morning, weaken to a remnant low near 18.0N 
113.0W Mon afternoon, and 17.8N 115.2W Tue morning. Dalila will 
dissipate early Wed. Moderate-sized cross-equatorial southerly 
swell will mix with seas generated from Dalila to impact the 
waters between Tehuantepec and Cabo Corrientes through Sun. 
Elsewhere, high pressure well northwest of the area will support 
generally moderate to locally fresh N-NW winds across the Baja 
California offshore waters through Wed. NW to N swell will build
into the Baja waters Sun through Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A tropical wave moving from Honduras to Costa Rica is generating
heavy showers and tstms across the Nicaragua and Costa Rica
offshore waters, with gusty winds and rough seas likely ongoing.
Winds elsewhere are moderate or weaker. Seas across most of
Central America offshores are 7 to 10 ft in SW swell. Between
Ecuador and the Galapagos, seas 5 to 8 ft in SW swell.

For the forecast, large SW swell will persist through most of 
the weekend, then subside early next week. Tropical Storm Dalila
located southwest of Acapulco, Mexico will move NW through today
then turn more W-NW and weaken Sun into Mon. SW swell from this 
system will continue to impact the waters of El Salvador and 
Guatemala through today. Showers and thunderstorms are expected 
to remain active across the Central America waters over the 
weekend and into early next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on 
Tropical Storm Dalila, located a few hundred nautical miles 
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.

Broad and weak ridging dominates the waters north of 13N, 
centered on a 1029 mb high near 39N138W. This pattern is 
supporting mostly moderate N to NE winds north of 10N and west 
of 120W, with 5 to 7 ft seas in a mix of N and S swell. Southerly
swell of 8 to 10 ft is gradually subsiding between 90W and 115W.
Elsewhere moderate to fresh SW winds persist south of the 
monsoon trough between 100W and 115W. Seas are 5 to 6 ft in S 
swell elsewhere west of 120W.

In the forecast, little change is expected west of 120W except
for increased NW swell north of 28N and east of 130W today 
through Wed. Conditions east of 120W and associated with T.S. 
Dalila are described in the Special Features section above, and 
will be dominated by large SW swell through tonight, and mixed E
to SE swell generated by Dalila. Dalila is forecast to die off by
Tue afternoon.

$$
Ramos
  

No Storms to Report