ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Shower and thunderstorm activity is currently limited and 
disorganized in association with a tropical wave over the central 
tropical Atlantic. Although upper-level winds are generally 
favorable for development, environmental dry air is likely to limit 
development over the next couple of days. However, a tropical 
depression could still form early next week as the system moves 
westward at around 10 mph across the central tropical Atlantic. This 
system is likely to be near the Lesser Antilles by the middle to 
latter part of next week, and interests there should monitor its 
progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.



Forecaster Hagen
    

920 
AXNT20 KNHC 051811
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Sep 5 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1805 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 35.7W from 17N southward
to 06N, with a a broad 1011 mb low near 11.8N35.7W along the axis,
drifting W at less than 5 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is seen from 11N to 16N between 35W and 40W. Shower
and thunderstorm activity is currently limited and disorganized 
in association with a tropical wave over the central tropical 
Atlantic. Although upper-level winds are generally favorable for 
development, environmental dry air is likely to limit development 
over the next couple of days. However, a tropical depression could
still form early next week as the system moves westward at around
10 mph across the central tropical Atlantic. This system is 
likely to be near the Lesser Antilles by the middle to latter part
of next week, and interests there should monitor its progress. 
There is a medium chance of formation within the next 2 days, and 
a high chance within the next 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC 
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Refer to the Special Features section above on an eastern 
Atlantic tropical wave (AL91) that is likely to become a tropical
depression by this weekend.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 66W from Puerto Rico 
to central Venezuela, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted along the wave from 13N to 16.5N between 65W
and 67W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W, then extends 
west-southwestward through a 1011 mb low pressure near 11.8N35.7W
to 08.5N48.5W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection 
is present south of the monsoon trough from 05N to 11N between 21W
and 30W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N
between 40W and 49W. 

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
numerous strong convection across the Caribbean waters S of 13.5N,
near Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A trough persists from the northeast Gulf to the central Gulf, 
anchored by 1012 mb low pressure near 27N86W. Scattered moderate 
convection is associated with this trough from 27N to 29N between
83W and 86.6W. An upper level trough is supporting numerous to 
isolated strong convection over the SE Gulf. Outside of 
convection, light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail 
over the Gulf.
  
For the forecast, a trough persists from the northeast Gulf to 
the central Gulf, anchored by 1012 mb low pressure near 27N86W. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are associated with these 
features. Farther south, an upper trough is supporting numerous 
thunderstorms over the far southeast Gulf. Otherwise, a weak 
pressure gradient over the basin will lead to moderate or weaker 
winds and generally slight seas into early next week. A cold front
will move into the northern Gulf late Sun, then stall early next 
week over northern waters. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough sections above for
information on convection being caused by those features. 
Convergent trades are coupling with an upper- level trough in the 
vicinity to trigger isolated moderate convection across waters 
near Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti. A tradewind 
dominant regime prevails over the basin, with generally moderate 
easterly winds, fresh over the central basin, and gentle in the 
NW. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in the central Caribbean, 3 to 5 ft in the
east and SW, and 1 to 3 ft in the NW. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic 
ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support moderate to 
fresh easterly trade winds along with moderate seas across much of
the central Caribbean into early Sun. Fresh to locally strong 
winds are expected to pulse off Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela
tonight and Sat night. In addition, moderate to locally fresh E 
winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail in the Gulf of 
Honduras through Sat night. Looking ahead, there is a medium 
chance low pressure currently in the eastern Atlantic may develop 
into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours, and a high chance 
it will develop through the next seven days at it moves westward. 
At a minimum, this feature may bring strong winds and rough seas 
to the Atlantic waters east of the Leeward Islands by the middle 
of next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about the potential 
for tropical cyclone development in the tropical Atlantic.

A stationary front extends from 31N73.5W to the northern Bahamas. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted along the front including 
the northern Bahamas. Farther east, a weak 1019 mb low pressure 
centered near 25.5N60.5W is causing scattered moderate convection 
from 20N to 29N between 57W and 64.5W. Refer to the Monsoon 
Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for 
additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. 

Light to gentle E winds are west of the stationary front. While
moderate SE winds are found ahead of the front. A large dome of 
1027 mb high at the central Atlantic is supporting moderate with 
locally fresh E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas north of 10N between 25W 
and 60W. In the far eastern Atlantic, E of 25W, fresh to locally 
strong NE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front 
will meander from 31N75W to the northern Bahamas into the start of
next week, bringing showers and thunderstorms to that region, 
along with locally hazardous winds and seas. Elsewhere, the 
Bermuda ridge will dominate weather through the forecast period, 
bringing gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. 

$$ KRV
  

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 5 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems: 
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Kiko, located in the East Pacific basin well east-southeast of the 
Hawaiian Islands.  Kiko is expected to cross into the central 
Pacific basin tonight or early Saturday morning.

1. Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could develop in the central 
portion of the eastern Pacific well to the south of the Baja 
California Peninsula during the early portion of next week. Some 
slow development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves 
generally westward over the open waters of the East Pacific. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



Forecaster Roth/Papin
    

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051525
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Sep 5 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Kiko: Hurricane Kiko is centered near 14.2N 137.1W at 
05/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum 
central pressure is 962 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 
kt with gusts to 120 kt. Seas are peaking near 32 ft. Numerous 
moderate to strong convection is noted from 12N to 16N between 
135W and 140W. Kiko is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are 
expected during the next 48 hours followed by weakening by early 
next week. Swells generated by Hurricane Kiko could begin 
reaching the Hawaiian Islands towards the end of this weekend. 
These swells could cause life- threatening surf and rip currents.
Please consult products by the National Weather Service in 
Honolulu, Hawaii.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Kiko
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov 
for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 07N to 16N with axis near 105W, 
moving west at approximately 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate to 
strong convection is from 11N to 17N between 104W and 108W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 16N109W, then resumes 
SW of Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena from 17N119W to 15N131W. 
scattered moderate convection is within 200 nm on either side of
the boundary and E of 110W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena is analyzed near 24.5N 
115.0W, with maximum sustained winds of 30 kt with gusts to 40 
kt, and minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Rough seas prevail
within the area of strongest winds. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker winds are ongoing N of Punta Eugenia and S of Cabo San 
Lazaro along with moderate seas. The outer circulation of Lorena
is supporting moderate to fresh SE to S winds along the Gulf of 
California with moderate seas over the southern half of the gulf
and slight winds N of 28N. Light to gentle winds prevail 
elsewhere along with moderate seas in SW swell.

For the forecast, the low related to Post-Tropical Cyclone 
Lorena will dissipate later today, and winds and seas 
diminishing tonight. Elsewhere, fresh SE to S winds over the Gulf
of California will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds this 
evening. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast for the remainder 
Baja California waters as well as the S and SW Mexican offshore 
waters through late Mon. Moderate to fresh NW winds may develop 
offshore Baja California Mon night into Tue as the remnants of a 
frontal boundary approaches from the west, thus increasing the 
pressure gradient across the region. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate or weaker winds are ongoing across both the Central
America offshore waters and the offshores between Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands. Seas are moderate in SW swell. Otherwise, 
heavy showers and scattered tstms are ongoing from coastal 
Colombia to the offshore waters of Nicaragua N of 05N.

For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in S
to SW swell will continue across the region through Tue night. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on 
Hurricane Kiko.

Aside from Kiko, a weak subtropical ridge anchored by a 1022 mb 
high NW of the area cover the waters N of 20N and W of 125W. 
The ridge supports moderate or weaker winds across the 
subtropical waters along with moderate seas. Otherwise, a 
tropical wave near 103W is supporting fresh SW winds S of the 
monsoon along with rough seas per recent altimeter data.

For the forecast, Hurricane Kiko is near 14.2N 137.1W at 8 AM
PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained 
winds are 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt, and the minimum central 
pressure is 962 mb. Kiko will move to 14.5N 138.5W this evening, 
15.0N 140.3W Sat morning, 15.7N 142.2W Sat evening, 16.4N 144.2W 
Sun morning, 17.5N 146.2W Sun evening, and 18.5N 148.4W Mon 
morning. Kiko will weaken to a tropical storm near 20.7N 152.8W 
by early Tue. Elsewhere, conditions will significantly 
improve across the region Sat evening as Kiko's strong winds move
W of the area. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast N of the 
monsoon and W of 110W Sat night into Tue night. Otherwise, a 
tropical wave with an associated low will reach near 120W by Sun
morning, enhancing winds to fresh speeds S of the monsoon and 
supporting rough seas as the wave continues a westward track.

$$
ERA
  

No Storms to Report