en Español

000
ABNT20 KNHC 210516
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Offshore of the East Coast of the United States (AL93):
A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area located a few hundred 
miles off the mid-Atlantic United States coast is producing some 
shower and thunderstorm activity primarily west and northwest of its 
center. Satellite imagery indicates that the low is still frontal. 
Over the next day or two, the low could gradually lose its frontal 
features while it moves slowly north-northeastward over the Gulf 
Stream, allowing the system to briefly develop subtropical 
characteristics. By the end of the week, the system is expected to 
accelerate northeastward away from the the eastern United States, 
and environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for 
additional subtropical or tropical development. 

Regardless of the status of the system, high winds, coastal 
flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along portions of the U.S. 
East Coast during the next few days. For more information, please 
consult statements and warnings from local National Weather Service 
offices and the Weather Prediction Center, along with the High Seas 
Forecasts and the Storm Warnings issued by the National Weather 
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Pierce/Pasch
  

614 
AXNT20 KNHC 210340
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Oct 21 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of The
Gambia near 13N17W and continues west-southwestward to 09N26W. 
The ITCZ extends from 09N26W to 07N50W. No significant convection
is noted near these boundaries.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough in the Bay of Campeche continues to produce
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, while drier
conditions are prevalent elsewhere. Strong high pressure north of
the area is forcing strong NW winds and rough seas in the SW Gulf,
while moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are
occurring in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure over the eastern U.S. will support 
moderate to fresh NE winds across the basin through the week, except 
for strong NW to N winds over the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz through 
Wed. The high combined with low pressure that is expected to develop 
near the Bahamas will support strong to near-gale NE winds and rough 
seas over the eastern Gulf Sat. These conditions will spread 
westward to the central Gulf Sat night through Sun night. Seas are 
expected to peak to 12 ft with these winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A few showers are noted in the lee of Cuba, over Hispaniola and
off Colombia. High pressure north of the area and a nearby frontal
boundary support moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 2-4 ft in 
the waters north of 20N. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade 
winds and seas of 3-5 ft are found from 11.5N to 16N and east of 80W.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail.

For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds N of 20N W of 85W will diminish
to moderate speeds by Wed as high pressure north of the basin 
weakens. Moderate to fresh SE winds will prevail across the
eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period, while 
gentle to moderate NE winds will continue W of 79W.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary cold front extends from Bermuda to the central
Bahamas and central Cuba. A few showers are occurring near this
boundary. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed moderate 
to fresh northerly winds behind the front. Seas in these waters 
are 8-11 ft. Farther east, a weak low pressure near 27N58W along 
an NW-SE oriented surface trough and a nearby broad upper-level 
trough combine to support scattered showers and thunderstorms 
north of 20N and between 40W and 60W. Moderate to fresh southerly 
winds and moderate seas are found east of the surface trough.

Meanwhile, well east of the Lesser Antilles, a surface trough is
producing scattered showers and thunderstorms from 13N to 18N and
between 35W and 55W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate
seas are present south of 10N and west of 50W. Finally, in the 
far NE Atlantic, a weak surface low near 26N22W supports scattered 
showers north of 22N and east of 25W, affecting portions of 
Western Sahara, Morocco and the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh 
easterly winds and moderate seas are found north of 25N and east 
of 35W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under a strong 
high pressure system positioned north of the Azores, sustaining 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and
large NE swell persist west of a stationary front that extends 
from 31N66W to the southeastern Bahamas and to east-central Cuba. 
Winds will diminish into Wed as the frontal boundary weakens. 
Lingering swell will slowly subside through Fri. A tightening 
pressure gradient will develop beginning late Fri as high pressure
builds southward over the western Atlantic and low pressure 
develops near, or NE of the Bahamas along a remnant frontal 
trough. This setup is expected to induce widespread near to gale-
force NE winds over the waters roughly NW of a line from near 
31N51W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba, including the 
Straits of Florida. Seas with these winds are expected to quickly 
build to rough to very rough. Mariners should monitor the latest 
marine forecasts, and have avoidance plans in place. 

$$
Delgado
  

en Español

245 
ABPZ20 KNHC 210511
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Oct 20 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico (EP94):
A low-pressure system located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec is producing a large area of showers and 
thunderstorms that continue to show signs of organization, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so. 
This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 
around 10 mph during the next few days, remaining well offshore of 
southern Mexico. For additional information, including Gale 
Warnings, see the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather 
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php 

$$
Forecaster Pierce/Pasch
  

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210316
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Oct 21 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure settled over 
Mexico will continue to funnel northerly gap winds of gale-force 
into the Gulf of Tehuantepec through tonight. Seas in these 
waters are rough. Fresh to strong winds will persist into Thu,
then increase to gales again Thu night into Fri night.

Gale Warning South of Southern Mexico (Invest EP94): A low-
pressure system located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec is producing a large area of showers and 
thunderstorms that are gradually becoming better organized, and a
tropical depression is forecast to form during the next day or 
so. This system is expected to move westward to west-
northwestward at 5 to 10 kt during the next few days, remaining 
well offshore of southern Mexico. A large area of fresh to strong
winds and rough seas surround this low center, and these winds
and seas are expected to increase over the next day or so. A Gale
Warning has been issued as a result, for Wed into Thu. There is
a high chance of tropical formation of this low within the next 
48 hours. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 1007 mb low pressure 
(EP94) near 10N97W, then onward to 06N105W. The ITCZ extends from
05N105W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 95W and 105W, and
from 05N to 08N between 130W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Elsewhere, 1007 mb low pressure, the remnant of Simon, is 
centered between Cabo Corrientes and the Revillagigedo Islands 
near 19N108W. is leading to moderate NW winds across Socorro
Island. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas 
prevail, except for slight seas in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, high pressure settled over Mexico is funneling 
northerly gap winds of gale-force into the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
this evening. Seas in these waters are rough. Winds will diminish
to strong by Wed, but will increase to gales again Thu night into
Sat. A low- pressure system located a few hundred miles south of 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large area of showers and 
thunderstorms that are gradually becoming better organized, and a
tropical depression is forecast to form during the next day or 
so. This system is expected to move westward to west- 
northwestward at 5 to 10 kt during the next few days, remaining 
well offshore of southern Mexico. There is a high chance of 
tropical formation of this low within the next 48 hours 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Rough seas coming from gale-force gap winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec continue to impact waters well offshore Guatemala. 
Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, rough seas well offshore Guatemala deriving 
from gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will decay tonight. 
Winds will pulse nightly to fresh in the Papagayo region. 
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail 
elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Special Features section above for information on a Gale
Warning issued in association with a low pressure system that has
a potential for tropical development. 

Elsewhere, fresh NW winds and rough seas are increasing behind a
cold front that extends from 30N124W to 25N130W. Moderate or 
weaker winds and moderate seas dominate the remainder of the 
basin. 

For the forecast, as the cold front moves to the southeast 
tonight, fresh to strong winds and very rough seas will impact 
waters north of 25N through Wed, with rough seas reaching as far
south as 20N Thu. A low- pressure system located a few hundred 
miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large area 
of showers and thunderstorms that are gradually becoming better 
organized, and a tropical depression is forecast to form during 
the next day or so. This system is expected to move westward to 
west- northwestward at 5 to 10 kt during the next few days, 
remaining well offshore of southern Mexico. A large area of fresh
to strong winds and rough seas surround this low center, and 
these winds and seas are expected to increase over the next day 
or so. A Gale Warning has been issued as a result, for Wed into 
Thu. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low 
within the next 48 hours. 

$$
Christensen
  

en Español

246 
ACPN50 PHFO 210511
TWOCP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM HST Tue Oct 20 2026

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Pierce/Pasch
NNNN