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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 
2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical 
Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2026. During the off-season, 
Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions 
warrant.

$$
Forecaster Bucci
NNNN
    

000
AXNT20 KNHC 151939 CCA
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Dec 15 2025

Corrected Atlantic Ocean section

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: An arctic cold front extends from
near 31N63W to the central Bahamas and to the Straits of Florida.
Strong high pressure is building in behind the front. A 
tightening pressure gradient between the front and the high 
pressure has initiated gale-force northwest to north winds over 
the waters west of the front to 73W north of 30N. Seas with these
winds are in the range of 10 to 16 ft (3 to 5 M). These gale 
conditions are expected to persist until early this afternoon as 
the front quickly moves southeastward. Otherwise, widespread 
strong to near-gale force northerly winds producing very rough seas 
in northwest to north swell are expected behind the front. Large 
north swell will reach the islands of the northeast Caribbean late 
Tue night into early Wed as it merges with easterly trade wind swell 
moving through the regional waters. Seas will begin to gradually 
subside from NW to SE Wed through Wed night. Please read the latest 
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more 
information.

East Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large, long-period north
to northeast swell continues to affect most of the eastern 
tropical and subtropical Atlantic. Seas of 12 ft or greater are 
currently from 08N to 21N between 26W and 51W, and from 10N to 
21N east of 24W, where peak seas are 13 ft, per recent satellite 
altimeter data. Global wave models show northerly swell of 14 to 
16 seconds mixing with northeast swell of 9 to 10 seconds across 
this area. With persistent fresh to strong northeast trade winds, 
the area of 12 ft or greater seas will expand westward to near 50W
this morning Mon before they slowly subside from  NE to SW going 
into Tue. For information east of 35W please read the latest High 
Seas Forecast issued by Meteo- France at website: 
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2. For 
information west of 35W, please read the latest High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 07N12.5W and 
continues southwestward to 04N22W, where it transitions to the 
ITCZ to 03N31W to 04N40W to 04N45W and to near 03.5N51W. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 02N to 08N 
east of 18W to just inland the coast of Africa. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 23W-28W,
within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 28W-34W and within 30 nm 
of the ITCZ between 18W-20W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An arctic cold front continues to push southward across the 
southern half of the basin as a large and strong area of high 
pressure, consisting of multi-high centers, over the eastern United 
States gradually shifts east-southeastward. The cold front has moved 
to along a position from just south of the Florida Keys to 23N90W 
and to inland Mexico near Tampico. The very tight pressure gradient 
between the front and the high pressure is resulting in fresh to 
strong northeast winds across the basin, except for north to 
northeast 25 to 30 kt winds in the far west-central Gulf along the 
coast of Mexico from just north of Tampico to near 24N. Mostly 
moderate northeast winds are south of the front. Seas are in the 
range of 7 to 11 ft, with the exception of higher seas of 8 to 12 ft 
in the west-central Gulf from north to northeast swell. Lower seas 
of 6 to 8 ft in northeast to east swell are over the NW Gulf, and 
seas of 4 to 7 ft are over the central and eastern Bay of Campeche. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will continue to
move south exiting the Gulf tonight. Strong northerly winds
and rough seas will follow the front. High pressure will dominate
the Gulf region in the wake of the front Tue through Thu. The 
next cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf Thu evening,
and reach from near Tampa Bay to southeastern Texas Fri evening
before lifting northward and dissipating. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong arctic cold front is moving through the western 
Atlantic, with a large area of strong high pressure building in 
behind. The pressure gradient across the area has weakened 
slightly over the past 24 hours. Recent scatterometer satellite 
data passes indicate that gentle to moderate trade winds are north
of about 16N over the central part of the basin while moderate to
fresh trade winds are south of 15N over the eastern part of the 
basin, and mostly gentle trade winds are north of 15N. Moderate to
fresh northeast winds are over the western half of the basin. 
Seas are in the range of 4 to 7 ft are over the majority of the
sea, with the exception of higher seas of 6 to 8 ft from 11N to 
15N between 72W and 81W. Lower seas of 3 to 5 ft are north of 
18N west of 81W and in the Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise, a trough 
is analyzed over the northwestern Caribbean from near 20N87W to 
near the northeast tip of Honduras. Scattered showers moving 
southwestward are near the trough. Numerous moderate to isolated 
strong convection is confined to the far southwestern section of 
the sea, south of about 12N and west of Colombia due to the 
combination of low-level convergence of the trade winds along with 
instability provided by the close proximity of the eastern Pacific 
Ocean monsoon trough that extends eastward across southern Costa 
Rica and across Panama.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds and moderate seas will prevail
over the south-central Caribbean through Tue as Atlantic high 
pressure remains well NE of the region. Elsewhere, fresh to 
locally strong trade winds and rough seas in large E swell will 
persist over the tropical Atlantic waters, through the Atlantic 
passages and into the eastern part of the basin through Tue. A 
strong cold front that is presently moving across the western 
Atlantic will enter the northwestern Caribbean this evening, 
accompanied by increasing winds and building seas. This front is 
expected to reach from central Cuba to northern Belize Tue morning, 
then will stall and gradually dissipate through Wed. High pressure 
will build into the W Atlantic Wed through Fri to bring a return to 
fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...Corrected

Please see the Special Features section for more information on 
an ongoing gale warning for a portion of the northwest Atlantic 
waters, and for an ongoing significant swell event in the eastern
Atlantic.

An arctic cold front continues to move southeastward across the
western Atlantic this morning, extending from near 31N63W to the
central Bahamas and to the Straits of Florida. Outside of the 
areas of northerly gales immediately behind the front, strong to 
near-gale force northwest to north winds and very rough seas 
follow the front. Seas northeast of the Bahamas have build to 
the range of 10 to 15 ft as noted in recent altimeter satellite
data passes. A trough precedes the front along a position from
near 31N62W to 25N70W and to east-central Cuba. The combination of 
jet stream dynamics aloft and the trough is resulting in a large
area of moderate to heavy rain along with embedded showers and
isolated thunderstorms north of about 27N and between 56W and 64W.
This area of precipitation is lifting north-northeastward. 
Isolated showers are near the trough, and over the eastern Straits
of Florida. Some of this activity may be accompanied by strong 
wind gusts.

Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are along the trough.
Gentle to moderate northeast winds are spreading southeastward 
across the central and southeastern Bahamas. Seas of 9 to 13 ft are 
within 60 nm of the South Florida coast. Much lower seas of 2 to 4 
ft are within the Bahamas Islands.

A 1032 mb high pressure is well north of the discussion area near
36.5N32W. A tight pressure gradient between the high pressure and
relatively lower pressure across the tropics to its south is 
sustaining fresh to strong trade winds over the waters south of 
about 25N and east of 60W. Seas of 8 to 13 ft prevail with these 
trade winds as noted above in the Special Features section.

For the forecast W of 55W, gale-force winds north of 30N and west 
of the front will diminish today. Otherwise, the front will be 
followed by strong to near gale-force northerly winds and quickly 
building seas through this evening. The front will reach from 
31N57W to the central Bahamas and through the Straits of Florida 
by this evening, stall from near 30N55W to the SE Bahamas and 
central Cuba by Tue morning, then slowly dissipate through Wed 
afternoon. Large north swell will build across the regional 
waters behind the front through Tue before subsiding. The Bermuda 
high pressure will dominate the regional waters Thu through Fri. 

$$
Aguirre
  

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 
2025 Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather 
Outlook will resume on May 15, 2026 for the eastern North Pacific 
and on June 1, 2026 for the central North Pacific. During the 
off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as 
conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs
NNNN
    

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151959
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Dec 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
the high pressure over Mexico and the eastern north Pacific 
monsoon trough is sustaining gale-force northerly winds across 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec which are forecast to continue through 
Tue morning. Winds may peak around 45 night overnight. By Tue 
afternoon, the high pressure will begin to shift eastward and 
weaken. Rough seas will are expected with the strongest winds, 
peaking around 16 ft tonight. Please read the latest High Seas 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08.5N78W to 07N95W. The ITCZ 
continues from that point to 08N111W to 07.5N125W. A surface 
trough is analyzed from 15N128W to 06N126W. The ITCZ then 
resumes W of the trough from 07N127.5W to beyond 06N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10.5N between
77W and 86W, from 10N to 12N between 109W and 112W, from 07.5N to
10N between 116W and 120W, and from 09N to 12N between 124W and
127W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please 
see the Special Feature section for more details.

A 1027 mb high center is analyzed just N of the area near 
31N129W. Its associated ridge extends to near the Revillagigedo 
Islands per ASCAT scatterometer data. The related pressure 
gradient is allowing for gentle to moderate northwest to north 
winds and slight to moderate seas over the Mexican offshore 
waters N of 17N, except locally fresh in the central Gulf of
California per the ASCAT data due to a locally tight pressure
gradient between the ridging and troughing along the eastern
shore of the Gulf of California. Light and variable winds and 
slight seas prevail elsewhere from 12N to 17N outside of the 
Tehuantepec area.

For the forecast, gale-force winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
will prevail through Tue morning. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to 
moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail through the middle 
of the week. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas will 
develop mainly just beyond the offshore waters of Baja 
California Norte by the middle part of the week. Moderate to 
fresh winds will pulse near Cabo Corrientes during the middle of 
the week. Fresh to at least strong gap winds and rough seas may 
return in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the end of the week into 
next weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast winds prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo 
region as high pressure builds in N of the Caribbean with lower 
pressures along the monsoon trough over southern Costa Rica and 
Panama. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas are elsewhere N 
of 08N. S of 08N, gentle to moderate southerly winds and 
moderate seas prevail, except slight seas nearshore Colombia and 
eastern Panama. Active convection is present near Panama and 
Costa Rica as described above with locally higher winds and seas 
possible.

For the forecast, building high pressure N of the Caribbean and
lower pressures near the monsoon trough will continue to support
pulsing fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas 
across the Gulf of Papagayo through midweek, possibly returning 
Fri night into next weekend. Rough seas in the far offshore 
waters of Guatemala will persist through Tue due to a Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gale-force gap event. Moderate to fresh northerly 
winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama this week. Gentle to 
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail 
elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1027 mb high center is analyzed just N of the area near 31N129W.
Its associated ridge extends to near the Revillagigedo Islands 
per ASCAT scatterometer data. The pressure gradient between the 
high and relatively lower pressures associated to a trough that 
extends in the W-central waters as described above is bringing 
moderate to fresh trade winds from 09N to 20N and W of 120W or 
so, locally strong near the northern portion of the trough as
seen on recent ASCAT data. Rough seas prevail over these waters 
in mixed long period swell along with shorter period wind 
generated seas. Moderate southerly winds and moderate seas are 
occurring S of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Mainly gentle to 
moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of 
the open waters.

For the forecast, the surface trough in the W-central waters will
move westward through the early part of the week while 
weakening. High pressure will build further over the northern 
waters into the middle portion of the week leading to a 
tightening of the pressure gradient that will cause fresh to 
strong easterly winds and rough seas over much of the tradewind 
belt west of 120W. Over the eastern part of the area, fresh to 
strong easterly winds and rough seas associated with the gale- 
force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will spread 
westward to near 106W from 08N to 12N through Tue. Seas will
build to rough near 30N140W this evening through Tue night in W-NW
swell. Meanwhile, a tight pressure gradient will develop 
offshore southern California leading to fresh to locally strong 
winds and rough seas in the N-central waters mid-week. Marine
conditions should improve overall during the upcoming weekend as
the pressure gradient slackens.
 
$$
Lewitsky
  

No Storms to Report