ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Lorenzo, located in the central tropical Atlantic.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Lorenzo are issued under WMO 
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Lorenzo are issued under WMO 
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NNNN
    

000
AXNT20 KNHC 132105
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Oct 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Lorenzo is centered near 15.2N 41.7W at 13/2100
UTC or 1030 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving NW at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Max seas are 17 ft.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring
from 12N-17N between 38W-42W. A motion toward the northwest with
a gradual slowdown is expected through Tue, followed by a turn 
to the north on Tue night. Little change in strength is forecast
during the next day or so, but some gradual intensification is 
possible later in the week.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Lorenzo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave has emerged off of the coast of West Africa
along 17W, south of 18N. Scattered moderate and isolated
convection is noted from 06N-15N east of 20W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, south of 12N, 
moving westward around 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
noted from 08N-11N between 25N-30N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W, south of 18N,
moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 11N-13N between 53W-55W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 12N17W and extends to 08N20W to 07N25W to 08N31W. 
The ITCZ extends from 09N48W to 11N62W. Convection is described
above in the Tropical Wave section.

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from coastal Nicaragua
near 12N84W to 10N76W over coastal Colombia. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is occurring south of 14N west of
80W in the SW Caribbean. 

GULF OF AMERICA...

Other than a trough over the southwest Gulf, weak ridging
dominates the basin, supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds
and 1 to 3 ft seas. No significant shower or thunderstorm
activity is observed at this time.

For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the basin through the work week,
resulting in gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
over much of the Gulf. Winds are expected to increase to fresh 
speeds over the eastern and central Gulf Thu night through Fri 
night as the pressure gradient tightens some across the area. Winds
will veer to the SE and S toward the end of the week as high pressure
over the SE of the United States moves westward into the western 
Atlantic. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A vigorous mid-latitude upper-level trough extends from central 
Florida to the northeast Yucatan Peninsula. A plume of showers
and thunderstorms are active east of the front flowing from the
far southwest Caribbean off Costa Rica and western Panama toward
Cuba, Jamaica, and Haiti. A few showers and thunderstorms are
also active across the southern Windward Islands. High pressure
centered over the central Atlantic is supporting moderate E winds
across the eastern Caribbean where seas are 2 to 4 ft. Gentle
breezes are noted elsewhere with 1 to 3 ft seas.

For the forecast, a cold front will move across Cuba and the
northwest Caribbean Tue through Thu. Moderate to locally fresh 
winds and moderate seas are expected in the wake of the front. 
Unsettled weather conditions will persist along and ahead of the 
frontal boundary. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient will 
support moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas 
over much of the basin through the work week. Tropical Storm 
Lorenzo will remain east of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Lorenzo in the central Atlantic.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 240 nm east
of a cold front reaching from 30N73W to central Cuba. 1016 mb 
high pressure is centered near 24N61W. Fresh to strong winds and
seas to 8 ft are near this cold front north of 30N. A few 
showers are along a trough extending from 30N54W to 26N53W. Fresh
to strong NE winds and rough seas are evident along this trough 
as well. Farther east, weak 1014 mb low pressure is near 28N36W, 
and another 1016 high pressure area is near 24N33W. Strong winds
and rough seas extend within 270 nm of the center of Lorenzo.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and generally 4 to 6 ft seas
prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from 31N70W to 
western Cuba by Tue morning, from near Bermuda to central Cuba by
Wed morning, and from 31N60W to eastern Cuba by Thu morning. 
Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected on either side 
of the front across the waters N of 27N by Tue night. These 
marine conditions will shift eastward with the front through late
in the week. 

$$
Christensen
  

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 13 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of Southern Mexico:
A broad trough of low pressure located a couple hundred miles 
south-southwest of Guatemala is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  Little development is expected during the next 
couple of days while the system meanders well offshore.  
Environmental conditions appear more conducive for development 
during the latter half of the week, and a tropical depression could 
form while the system drifts northward then northwestward near or 
just offshore of the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



Forecaster Hagen
    

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132009
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Oct 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 1008 mb low pressure 
near 12N92W to 09N127W. The ITCZ extends from 09N127W to beyond 
09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 08N between
78W and 83W, and from 12N to 14N between 93W and 95W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A sharp trough extends from the lower Colorado River valley into
the Gulf of California. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong
SW winds across the northern Gulf waters. To the west, the 
gradient between this low and high pressure to the northwest is 
leading to moderate NW winds offshore Baja California Norte, with
related NW swell generating seas of up to 8 ft impacting the 
waters around Guadalupe Island and the offshore areas beyond 120
nm off Baja California Norte. Elsewhere over Mexican offshore 
waters, light to gentle winds and moderate seas dominate.

For the forecast, the trough over the northern Gulf of California will 
support fresh to strong SW winds over the northern Gulf through
tonight. Northerly swell near Guadalupe Island off Baja 
California Norte will subside through this evening, but build 
back into the region Tue night into Wed following a weak cold 
front moving into Baja California and the Gulf of California. To 
the south, broad low pressure is developing off Guatemala. Little
development is expected over the next few days while the low 
drifts to off southern Mexico, but strong northerly gap winds 
will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting Tue. These 
higher winds may eventually aide in environmental conditions that
are more conducive for tropical development of the low later in 
the week. There is a medium chance that a tropical depression 
forms while the system moves to offshore southern Mexico toward 
the end of the week or this weekend. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A few showers and thunderstorms are active along the
coast from Nicaragua to Guatemala, north of 1008 mb low pressure
area centered near 12N92W. Gentle to moderate SW winds prevail 
with seas of 5 to 7 ft from Costa Rica to Guatemala, and 4 to 5 
ft from Panamanian offshore waters southward to Ecuador. 

For the forecast, the low pressure off Guatemala will remain
stationary through the early part of the week, and little
development is expected. Environmental conditions area likely to
become more conducive for tropical development of the low later 
in the week, and there is a medium chance that a tropical 
depression forms while the system moves N or NW offshore 
Guatemala or southern Mexico toward the end of the week or this 
weekend. At a minimum, there may be fresh winds and rough seas 
off El Salvador and Guatemala Thu and Fri as the low moves 
through the region. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad ridging prevails north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, with
moderate to locally fresh N winds across these waters. Seas are 
5 to 7 ft in this region, except for 8 to 9 ft north of 25N 
between 115W and 125W, where N swell is propagating. Elsewhere, gentle
to moderate southerly winds are south of the ITCZ along with 
seas of 5 to 7 ft. Moderate south to southwest winds and seas of 
5 to 7 ft are south of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the swell north of 25N between 115W and 125W 
will subside late today. A cold front will move southeastward 
across the waters north of 20N Tue through Thu. A new round of 8 
to 10 ft swell will follow the front over the waters north of 25N
tonight through Wed night. Looking ahead, high pressure building
north of the area behind the front will support moderate fresh 
NE winds north of 10N and west of 130W Thu and Fri. Farther 
south, weak low pressure is likely to form along the monsoon 
trough between 115W and 120W through Wed.

$$
Christensen
  

No Storms to Report