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Tropical Atlantic & Pacific Basin Outlooks & Discussions
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic - Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 091114
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Weather Discussion
Atlantic - Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico
000
AXNT20 KNHC 090830
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Sep 9 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave has its axis near 20W north of 03N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 10N to 17N and E of 23W.
A tropical wave has its axis near 53W from 02N to 18N, moving
westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are noted along
the wave axis.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 64W from 19N
southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 60W and 64W.
A central western tropical wave has its axis near 84W, south of
19N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant
convection is noted with this wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N17W, and continues
southwestward to 10N32W. The ITCZ continues from 10N32W to
09N51W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section
above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
from 05N to 10N between 33W and 40W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A stationary front extends across the eastern waters. Scattered
showers are in the vicinity of the front. Gentle to moderate winds
are noted over the SW Gulf as well as south of the Florida
panhandle. Light too gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Slight seas
dominate the Gulf waters.
For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf
through the weekend, producing a weak pressure gradient. This
will support mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas over
much of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas
off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to a
diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each
night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Strong to near gale force winds, and rough seas, prevail over the
south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate
seas cover the remainder of the Caribbean waters, except for light
to gentle winds in the lee of Cuba.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge and the
Colombian low will support strong winds, locally to near-gale
force, through Wed night before diminishing modestly through Fri.
Rough seas will prevail over these waters with the persistent
strong winds. Fresh to strong winds will pulse tonight in the
Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight
to moderate seas will prevail. Large easterly swell will accompany
a tropical wave into the Tropical N Atlantic waters early Wed
through Thu morning.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extends from 31N62W to central Florida.
Moderate winds are found N of the front. A surface trough extends
from 29N61W to E Cuba. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted N of 27N within 180 nm E of the trough. Light
to gentle winds are elsewhere N of 25N and W of 60W. The remainder
of the waters are dominated by high pressure, anchored by a 1025
mb high centered near 31N45W. Light to gentle winds are over the
waters S of the monsoon trough and E of 30W. Moderate to fresh
winds dominate the remainder of the discussion waters. Moderate to
rough seas prevail E of 40W, and S of 20N between 40W and 61W.
Moderate winds are elsewhere over the discussion waters.
For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure extending from
the central Atlantic westward along about 26N to the NW Bahamas
will gradually shift northeastward and strengthen through mid
week. This will cause winds to increase slightly S of 21N through
Thu. A stationary front will linger over the NW waters through mid
week before lifting northward.
$$
AL
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Tropical Weather Outlook
Eastern Pacific
en Español
442
ABPZ20 KNHC 091123
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Sep 9 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lowell, located a few hundred miles north-northwest of the
Hawaiian Islands.
Central Portion and West Portion of the East Pacific (EP96):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better
organized in association with an elongated area of low pressure
located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula. Further development is expected, and
a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two
while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Central Portion and West Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles
south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula this
weekend or early next week. Some gradual development is possible
thereafter, and a tropical depression could form early next week
while the system moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Evans/Kelly
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Tropical Weather Discussion
Eastern Pacific
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090948
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Sep 9 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a 1007 mb low pressure,
Invest EP96, centered near 16N112W or several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula, continue to show signs of organization. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is from 12N to 20N between 109W
and 116W. Although the system does not have a closed surface
circulation yet, further development is expected and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while
it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. There is a
high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next two
and seven days.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 84W north of 03N through Costa Rica,
Nicaragua and E Honduras. The wave is moving westward at 10 to
15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convecton is from 02N to 08N
E of 90W.
A tropical wave has its axis along 98W north of 01N. It is
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection extends from 00N to 17N between 90W and 108W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N85W to 07N100W to Invest
EP96 1007 mb low pressure near 16N112W to 13N127W and beyond
09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is active
from 12N to 18N between 122W and 131W, and from 01N to 09N W of
125W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A 1007 mb low pressure, Invest EP96, centered near 16N112W has
high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next two
and seven days. Fresh to strong winds in the N semicircle of the
low are affecting the Revillagigedo Islands along with moderate
to rough seas. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec fresh to strong winds
are pulsing and seas have remain moderate. Clusters of showers
and thunderstorms are active across the SW Mexican offshores
associated with Invest EP96 and a trailing tropical wave near
98W. Farther north, a weak pressure gradient across the region
due to the presence of the remnant low of Marie to the west of
the Baja California Norte is supporting mainly light to gentle
winds off the Baja Peninsula, and moderate or weaker winds and
slight seas in the Gulf of California.
For the forecast, regardless of development, the EP96 will
continue to affect the Revillagigedo Islands with fresh to strong
winds and moderate to rough seas through this evening. The
trailing tropical wave is forecast to provide mainly moderate to
fresh SE winds to the SW Mexican offshores today through Thu.
Otherwise, fresh to strong N to NE gap winds will continue to
pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Fri.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of
Papagayo region with moderate seas to 6 ft in southwest swell.
Gentle to moderate S to SE winds are across the offshores between
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands along with moderate seas.
Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds along with slight to moderate
seas are elsewhere.
For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
fresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate to rough seas across
the Gulf of Papagayo region through Sun night. Meanwhile,
moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected over the waters
between Ecuador and the Galapagos today through Wed night, then
diminishing some afterward. Moderate or lighter winds are
expected elsewhere.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
See the Special Features for further info on Invest EP96 with
high potential of development.
The remnant low of Marie is centered 27N128W and has an
estimated pressure of 1003 mb. A recent scatterometer pass
confirm the continuation of strong to near-gale force winds
within the E semicircle of the low. Seas to 14 ft are ongoing
within 390 nm E semicircle of the low per recent altimeter data,
with surrounding swell of 8 ft or greater extending over the
waters north of 20N and west of 124W. Farther south, SW swell to
8 ft originating in the Southern Hemisphere is reaching the
equator between 100W and 130W, and mixing with northerly swell.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft
are over the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. This
swell area is forecast to expand eastward through today as the
primary swell direction becomes northwest to north. Seas from
this swell are expected to be 7 to 9 ft.
For the forecast, aside from the Special Feature indicating the
potential of tropical cyclone development from Invest EP96, an
area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles
south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula this
weekend or early next week. Some gradual development is possible
thereafter, and a tropical depression could form early next week
while the system moves generally west-northwestward. Chance of
tropical cyclone development is low within the next two days and
medium within the next seven days.
$$
Ramos
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Tropical Weather Discussion
Central Pacific
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en Español
000
ACPN50 PHFO 091123
TWOCP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM HST Wed Sep 09 2026
For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lowell, located a few hundred miles north-northwest of the
Hawaiian Islands.
Central Portion and West Portion of the East Pacific (EP96):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better
organized in association with an elongated area of low pressure
located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula. Further development is expected, and
a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two
while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Central Portion and West Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles
south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula this
weekend or early next week. Some gradual development is possible
thereafter, and a tropical depression could form early next week
while the system moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Evans/Kelly
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