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Tropical Atlantic & Pacific Basin Outlooks & Discussions
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic - Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NNNN
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Tropical Weather Discussion
Atlantic - Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico
985
AXNT20 KNHC 261040
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Jul 26 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is analyzed over the eastern Atlantic near 25W,
from 17N southward, moving west at 10 kt. No significant
convection is evident near this wave.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 47W, from 20N southward,
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
depicted from 14N to 17N between 47W and 50W.
A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 60W, from 19N southward,
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 12N to 16N between 55W and 60W.
A Caribbean tropical wave is along 73W from 19N southward, moving
west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from
17N to 19N between 70W and 75W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and extends to
14N20W to 10N40W. The ITCZ continues from 08N50W to 10N55W.
Convection is described above in the Tropical Wave section.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
An upper trough extends across the western Gulf, supporting
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the western Bay of
Campeche and the south-central Gulf. High pressure off the east
coast of Florida in the western Atlantic is supporting moderate to
fresh winds across the Straits of Florida, with 4 to 6 ft seas.
Moderate to fresh winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are active over the Bay
of Campeche. Light to gentle E to SE breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas
persist elsewhere.
For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin through the
middle of next week, supporting mostly gentle to moderate
breezes and slight to moderate seas. The exception will be
moderate to fresh northeast to east winds along the Yucatan
Peninsula each afternoon and evening as a trough develops inland
daily and shifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A strong pressure gradient forced by a 1009 mb low over
northern Colombia and high pressure in the Atlantic is leading to
fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean and
through the Windward Passage. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are found across
these waters. Moderate to fresh trade winds are also found across
the west-central through northwestern basin with seas of 4 to 6
ft. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh E winds are noted
downwind of the Lesser Antilles into the eastern Caribbean.
Numerous moderate to locally strong convection is occurring in the
northwestern part of the basin.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure
and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds over
the central Caribbean into Sun. Fresh to strong northeast winds
in the Windward Passage are expected into Sun. Elsewhere, moderate
to fresh winds will prevail.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front in the central Atlantic is dissipating south of
Bermuda. A few thunderstorms are active along a trough parallel to
this front, reaching from 30N50W to 26N60W to 27N70W. Broad high
pressure dominates the remainder of the region north of 20N, with
the tropical waves described above covering the tropical Atlantic
region. Moderate to fresh SW winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted
north of 25N between 45W and 55W, between the frontal boundary and
high pressure centered over the Azores. Fresh to locally strong E
winds are noted off the northern coast of Hispaniola and the
approaches to the Windward Passage, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Gentle
to moderate breezes and 3 to 5 ft are noted elsewhere north of
20N. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are active
across the tropical Atlantic.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the weather pattern
across the forecast region, supporting fresh winds north of
Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward Passage through Sun
night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds along with mostly
moderate seas are expected.
$$
Christensen
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Tropical Weather Outlook
Eastern Pacific
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jul 26 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
1. Eastern portion of Central Pacific (CP90):
Showers and thunderstorms remain limited and disorganized in
association with an area of low pressure located about 1000 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Some gradual development of
this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form
before it moves into less conducive environmental conditions by
the middle of next week. This system is forecast to move westward
during the next several days well south of the Hawaiian Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
2. Western East Pacific:
A trough of low pressure centered about 1500 miles east-southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is
possible as it moves generally westward during the next several
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
3. South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form well offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico early next week. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form during the middle to latter
part of next week as the system moves generally west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Weather Discussion
Eastern Pacific
057
AXPZ20 KNHC 260903
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Jul 26 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave axis is analyzed along 109W from 02N to 16N,
moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 06N to 13N between 106W to 115W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N127W to 13N140W.
Scattered moderate convection prevails within 200 nm on either
side of the monsoon trough and E of 102W, and from 03N to 18N W
of 122W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A surface trough extends from 32N113W to 26N110W, then a surface
ridge dominates the remainder of the area. Fresh to strong N to
NW winds and moderate seas prevail offshore of Baja as a result
of the pressure gradient between these two features. Moderate to
fresh N to NE winds prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle
or weaker winds prevail over the rest of the waters. Seas are
mainly moderate in SW swell, with slight seas in the Gulf of
California.
For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds will continue
offshore of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro through the
weekend as the pressure gradient builds between troughing over
the Gulf of California and high pressure to the west. Pulsing
fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will
increase to strong to near-gale force Sun night through early
next week as high pressure builds southward through Mexico.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh NE winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo as low
pressure prevails over northwestern Colombia. Elsewhere,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are offshore of Panama, with
gusty winds and building seas likely near convection. Moderate
SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Moderate seas in
SW swell are noted through the regional waters.
For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds will continue to pulse in
the Gulf of Papagayo into next week as low pressure prevails in
the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh SW winds will
continue south of the monsoon trough through the weekend, then
diminish slightly. Moderate seas in SW swell are expected across
the Central and South American waters into next week.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Surface ridging extends through much of the waters north of the
monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds are noted north of 25N and
west of 125W. Farther south, moderate to fresh NE winds and
rough seas from 10N to 20N west of 120W. Moderate to fresh SE
winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough. Seas are
generally moderate.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds will prevail
north of the monsoon trough to 25N, expanding farther north
through the weekend as high pressure strengthens north of the
area. Rough seas generated by fresh winds will occur from 10N to
15N west of 130W though Sun, then rough seas may develop south
of the monsoon trough on Sun night through early next week.
$$
ERA
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Tropical Weather Discussion
Central Pacific
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