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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Erin, located a few hundred miles northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands.

1. Northwestern Atlantic:
A broad and weak area of low pressure located off the coast of North 
Carolina is producing disorganized shower activity.  Some slight 
development of this system is possible over the next day or two 
while it moves little over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream.  By 
Monday, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable 
for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.



Forecaster Kelly
    

069 
AXNT20 KNHC 161042
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Aug 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Erin is centered near 19.8N 61.1W at 16/0900 UTC 
or 150 nm NE of Anguilla, moving WNW at 17 kt. Estimated minimum 
central pressure is 955 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt
with gusts to 130 kt. Peak seas are around 34 ft near the center.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring from 15N to 
22N between 57W and 66W. On the forecast track, the center of 
Erin is expected to move just north of the northern Leeward 
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend. 
Erin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane 
Wind Scale. Continued rapid strengthening is expected, and Erin is
forecast to become a Category 4 hurricane later today.

The outer bands of Erin are expected to produce areas of heavy 
rainfall through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands, the 
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches,
with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. Locally 
considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or 
mudslides, are possible. Swells generated by Erin will affect 
portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, 
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through 
the weekend. These swells will spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States early next week. These rough 
ocean conditions will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip 
currents. 
 
Please consult products from your local weather forecast office 
for more details. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall 
and flash flooding associated with Erin, please see the National 
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores/php for more information.

For the latest Erin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory,
visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is E of the Cape Verde Islands extending from 08N
to 20N with axis near 21W, moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is seen from 09N to 19N between 14W and 30W.  

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic, extending from 04N to
17N with axis near 36W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is present from 05N to 09N between 30W and 
44W. 

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis S of 20N
near 74W, moving west around 15 kt. Convection associated with
this wave is currently inland Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast 
near Dakar, then curves westward across 10N30W to 14N46W. Farther
south, the ITCZ begins near 07N40W and continues to 10N52W. Aside
from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered
moderate convection is occurring from 12N to 17N between 42W and
50W, and from 07N to 11N between 47W and 55W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The Gulf is under the influence of a weak surface ridge anchored
by a 1019 mb high over SE Louisiana coastal waters. A weak
pressure gradient across the region due to the northwestward track
of Major Hurricane Erin, currently located NE of the Leeward
Islands, is providing moderate or weaker winds in the Gulf along
with slight seas.  

For the forecast, weak surface ridging across the region will 
provide gentle to moderate NE to E winds across the E half of the 
Gulf, and E to SE winds of the same speeds W of 90W through Mon. 
Seas during this period will fluctuate between slight to moderate.
Afterward, winds will become light to gentle basin-wide as a 
result of the passage of Major Hurricane Erin across the Bahamas 
offshore waters, which will lower the pressure gradient in the 
region. Seas are forcast to be slight across the Gulf Mon through 
Wed. Otherwise, the proximity of the cyclone may trigger scattered
heavy showers and tstms over the NE Gulf Sat night into Sun night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for further information
on Major Hurricane Erin. 

Hurricane Erin is near 19.8N 61.1W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving 
west-northwest at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with 
gusts to 130 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 955 mb. Heavy
showers and scattered tstms associated with the rainbands of Erin
are already affecting the Leeward Islands and the NE Caribbean. 
Isolated to scattered showers in spiral bands are starting to 
reach the Virgin Islands. Low pressure of 1012 mb embedded in the 
E extension of the monsoon trough is supporting scattered moderate
convection over the SW Caribbean S of 13N. Otherwise, isolated
showers are ongoing in the lee side of Cuba and in the Gulf of
Honduras. Seas are slight over the western half of the basin and
slight to moderate E of 72W. 

For the forecast, Erin will move to 20.3N 63.3W this afternoon, 
21.1N 65.6W Sun morning, 22.1N 67.5W Sun afternoon, 23.3N 68.8W 
Mon morning, 24.6N 69.8W Mon afternoon, and 26.2N 70.5W Tue 
morning. Erin will change little in intensity as it moves near 
29.9N 70.9W early Wed. Even though the center of major hurricane 
Erin will pass NNE of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and 
Puerto Rico, swells generated by Erin will affect portions of the 
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and 
Hispaniola through the weekend. These rough ocean conditions will 
likely cause life- threatening surf and rip currents, including 
through the Caribbean Passages. Moderate to fresh southerly winds 
over the eastern and north-central Caribben will diminish to 
gentle to moderate speeds on Mon as Erin move farther away across 
the central Bahamas offshore waters.
 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for further information
on Major Hurricane Erin. 

Hurricane Erin is near 19.8N 61.1W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving 
west-northwest at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with 
gusts to 130 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 955 mb. Aside
from Erin, the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic is under
the influence of a broad surface ridge anchored by a 1020 mb high
near 31N36W and a 1021 mb high near 29N45W. The gradient of
pressure between the ridge, a pair of tropical waves S of 20N and
Erin to the SW is supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E
winds E of 50W with lighter winds nearby the high centers. Over
the SW N Atlantic waters, a weaker ridge anchored by a 1018 mb
high near 29N77W supports light to gentle winds N of 27N. Aside
from the rough to very rough seas associated with Erin over the 
offshore waters from 15N to 27N between 54W and 66W, slight to
moderate seas prevail elsewhere.  

For the forecast, Erin will move to 20.3N 63.3W this afternoon, 
21.1N 65.6W Sun morning, 22.1N 67.5W Sun afternoon, 23.3N 68.8W 
Mon morning, 24.6N 69.8W Mon afternoon, and 26.2N 70.5W Tue 
morning. Erin will change little in intensity as it moves near 
29.9N 70.9W early Wed. Swells generated by Erin will affect 
portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, 
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through 
the weekend. These swells will spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States early next week. These rough 
ocean conditions will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip 
currents.  

$$
Ramos
  

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Aug 16 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
NNNN
    

150 
AXPZ20 KNHC 160846
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Aug 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 90W, north of 02N through western 
Nicaragua, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is evident from 11N to 13N between 89W and 91W.

A tropical wave is along 101W, north of 03N TO 16N, moving west 
at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 
08N to 10N between 93W and 101W. 

A tropical wave is along 120W from 02N to 20N, moving west at 
10-15 kt. No significant convection is evident near this wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 09N95W to 18N115W. 
The ITCZ extends from 12N120W to beyond 07N140W. In addition to 
the convection described above in the Tropical Waves section, 
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active from n
of 14N between 94W and 96W, from 07N to 09N between 94W and 97W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 17N to 19N between
105W and 115W, and from 06N to 11N between 125W and 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh southerly winds linger over the northern Gulf of California
this morning, between lower pressure over the Colorado River
Valley and higher pressure over central Mexico. Moderate seas 
persist over the northern and central Gulf of California, with 
slight seas farther south. To the west, weak ridging extends from
high pressure centered over the north- central Pacific to near 
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. This pattern 
is supporting mostly moderate NW breezes and moderate seas off 
Baja California. Light to gentle breezes and slight seas are 
noted farther south off southern Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh S winds will persist across northern and
central Gulf of California through tonight between low pressure 
over the Colorado River Valley and higher pressure over central 
Mexico. Elsewhere, a ridge will persist west of the Baja 
California peninsula into early next week, supporting gentle to 
moderate NW winds with moderate seas. Farther south, light to 
gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell will persist across 
the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gap winds are noted across the Papagayo region have diminished
overnight. Elsewhere, light to gentle westerly winds dominate 
the offshore waters north of 06N while gentle to moderate 
southerly winds are noted south of 06N. Moderate seas prevail 
across the whole area.

For the forecast, light to gentle westerly winds will continue 
across the waters north of 05N through the upcoming weekend while
gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected south of 05N. 
Cross-equatorial southerly swell will continue to propagate 
across the regional waters, keeping seas in the moderate range, 
except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands where slight seas are 
expected.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Weak ridging remains in place north of 15N, west of 120W,
supporting moderate to fresh trade winds from 05N to 15N west of
135W. Recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate to 
fresh SE winds south of 05N between 115W and 135W. Gentle to 
moderate breezes and moderate seas in a mix of SW and NW swell 
persist elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the ridge will remain in place through the
middle of next week. Combined seas will be 6 to 8 ft in pockets
south of 10N and west of 130W today into Sun, due to a 
combination fresh SE and NE winds. Winds and seas will subside
Mon, but expect another surge of southerly swell south of the
monsoon trough between 115W and 135W by mid week. Little change
is expected elsewhere. 

$$
Christensen
  

No Storms to Report