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Tropical Atlantic & Pacific Basin Outlooks & Discussions
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic - Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2026. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
$$ Forecaster Bucci NNNN
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Tropical Weather Discussion
Atlantic - Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico
000
AXNT20 KNHC 072325
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri May 8 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 33.5W,
S of 11N, and is nearly stationary. Nearby convection is
discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues
southwestward to near 00N30W, with the tropical wave described
above to the west. The ITCZ is analyzed from west of the tropical
wave near 00N35W to near the coast of Brazil at 00N45W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted south of 04N and east of 25W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A cold front extends from Mobile Bay, Alabama to near Brownsville,
Texas where it transitions to a stationary front. Dense low to mid
level cloudiness is evident north of the front, but no significant
convection. Fresh NE winds are noted north of the front. Gentle to
moderate breezes and mostly 2-4 ft seas are noted elsewhere.
For the forecast, expect scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the northern offshore waters of Texas tonight and
Fri, then spread south of New Orleans and Florida Panhandle Fri
night as the front sinks a bit farther south. The front will then
stall and lift back to the north as a warm front late Fri night
thru Sat. Afterward, the ridge should build back across the Gulf
from the east. In response, winds will pulse to between fresh and
strong near the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings through Sat
night. Looking ahead, another cold front might move into the
northern Gulf waters late Sun, and reach from north-central
Florida to eastern Bay of Campeche by late on Mon, followed by
moderate to fresh N to NE winds. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms, some possibly strong to marginally severe, are
possible to precede the fronts.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western
Atlantic and low pressure over Colombia supports fresh to strong E
winds in the central Caribbean, where seas are 6-8 ft. Moderate
to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail in the eastern and
southwest Caribbean, as well as in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to
moderate trades and 2-5 ft seas prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, the pattern will continue to sustain fresh to strong trades with
nighttime pulses to near-gale at the south-central Caribbean along
with locally rough seas through early next week. Similar conditions
are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras, through Sun night.
Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the
eastern and central Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A dissipating cold front enters the discussion waters near 31N53W
then continues southwestward to near 26N60W. A frontal remnant
trough then extends from that point to near 28N69W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are seen ahead of the front, generally
north of 26N and west of 50W. Moderate SW winds and 3-4 ft seas
are noted off northeast Florida ahead of a cold front in the Gulf.
Gentle breezes and 2-3 ft seas are noted elsewhere north of 20N
and west of 50W. Gentle to moderate NE breezes and 4-7 ft seas
are noted elsewhere across the discussion area.
For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move off
northeastern Florida late tonight, then gradually weaken as it
shifts eastward north of 28N through Sat. It will bring southerly
moderate winds off northern Florida through Fri. Then a stronger
cold front is expected to follow a similar path Mon through Tue,
followed by moderate to fresh winds. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms, some possibly strong to marginally severe, are
possible ahead of both fronts. Meanwhile, a surface ridge across
the western Atlantic near 28N65W will support fresh to strong
winds off northern Hispaniola might Sat through Mon nights.
$$
Christensen
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Tropical Weather Outlook
Eastern Pacific
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2025 Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2026 for the eastern North Pacific and on June 1, 2026 for the central North Pacific. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
$$ Forecaster Gibbs NNNN
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Tropical Weather Discussion
Eastern Pacific
760
AXPZ20 KNHC 080321 CCA
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri May 8 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N75.5W 08N83W to 05.5N89W to
08.5N98W to 06N113W. The ITCZ continues from 06N113W to 07N138W
to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 04N to 11.5N between 78W and 91W, and from 00N to
10N between 86W and 101W. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is noted from 05.5N to 11.5N between 102W and 140W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Moderate to fresh northwesterly winds prevail west of the Baja
California peninsula this evening, where seas are 4 to 6 ft in
W-NW swell. Light to gentle winds prevail across north and
central portions of the Gulf of California, while gentle to
moderate northwesterly winds are occurring from southern portions
of the Gulf to Las Tres Marias. Seas are 1 to 2 ft north and
central portions and 3-4 ft elsewhere. Light to gentle winds, and
seas of 3-5 ft prevail elsewhere between Cabo Corrientes and
Tehuantepec.
For the forecast, 1028 mb high pressure remains NW of the area
tonight, and will drift NE and weaken slightly through early next
week. This pattern will produce gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas over much of the forecast waters through the remainder
of the week and into early next week. Large NW swell will approach
Guadalupe Island off Baja California Norte briefly Sat night and
Sun. Looking ahead, gap winds may strengthen along with building
seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night through Tue night as a
cold front moves through southern Mexico.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh E to SE gap winds extend offshore of the
Papagayo region to near 87W this evening, while light to gentle
winds prevail elsewhere. Moderate NW to N winds have begun to
spill into western portions of the Gulf of Panama. Seas are
moderate in S-SW swell across the area waters, except slight
across the coastal waters of Colombia. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection remains from offshore of Nicaragua
near 90W to coastal Colombia.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly gap winds will pulse
at night to strong across the Papagayo region through early next
week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in
southerly swell are expected. Expect large SW swell near the
Galapagos Islands Fri and Sat.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A surface ridge dominates the forecast waters north of the ITCZ,
centered on a 1028 mb high near 31N133W. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is
supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 20N
and west of 115W, and N to NE winds between 110W and 115W. Seas are
6-9 ft in W-NW swell across these waters S of 20N, highest west of
125W, and 4 to 6 ft N of 20N. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds
and moderate seas in S-SW swell prevails.
For the forecast, the ridge will change little across the region
through early next week. The associated pressure gradient will
support fresh trades, strong at times, north of the ITCZ to about
20N and west of 120W through the remainder of the week and the
weekend, with seas of 7-8 ft across this area. Mainly gentle to
moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere through
the week. Rough seas are expected in building southerly swell S
of the Equator from Thu through Sat night.
$$
Stripling
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Tropical Weather Discussion
Central Pacific
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