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Tropical Atlantic & Pacific Basin Outlooks & Discussions
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic - Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 110501
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Weather Discussion
Atlantic - Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico
000
AXNT20 KNHC 110307
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Nov 11 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Meteo-France Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: SW winds to gale-force
will persist through early Wed from the waters north of the
Canary Islands to off Agadir, Morocco, with 12 to 18 ft seas.
These gales and rough to very rough seas are ahead of a complex
pair of low pressure systems west and northwest of the Canary
Islands moving rapidly to the northeast. Winds and seas will start
to diminish after 12 UTC.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France
at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N14W to 09N20W. The ITCZ
extends from 09N20W to 07N53W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 07N to 09N between 30W and 45W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A weak pressure pattern continues between 1021 mb high pressure
over the Lower Mississippi Valley and troughs over the western
Gulf and southeast Gulf. This pattern is supporting light to
gentle breezes and 1-3 ft seas across the basin. A few showers and
thunderstorms are active over the far northwest Gulf along the
upper Texas coast.
For the forecast, a rather strong cold front will reach the Texas coast
Wed night, then sweep across the Gulf through Thu night, exiting
the basin early on Fri, followed by fresh to locally strong
northerly winds and building seas. Fresh to strong northwest winds
are expected in the far SW Gulf Thu through Fri. High pressure
will settle in over the area in the wake of the front this
weekend, with moderate to fresh easterly winds expected. These
winds increase to fresh to strong speeds over the NW Gulf Sun,
then shifting to the north-central and NE Gulf by Sun night as the
gradient tightens ahead of a western Gulf frontal system and
attendant low pressure that will be shifting eastward.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of
the region and lower pressure over South America is leading to
fresh to strong trades over the south central basin, with moderate
to fresh trades elsewhere, except weaker near the coast of Central
America and in the NE Caribbean. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in the south-
central Caribbean and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere, except 2-4 ft over the
northwest Caribbean. A few showers are active across the northwest
Caribbean.
For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and locally rough seas will
prevail over the south-central Caribbean through Thu, with
mainly moderate winds and seas elsewhere. The pressure gradient
will weaken Thu night into Fri as a cold front approaches the
Yucatan Channel, weakening the trades. Moderate to fresh
northwest winds and building seas are possible behind this front
over the northwestern Caribbean into the weekend.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning for portions of the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast area.
A stationary front extends from near 29N55W to low
pressure of 1017 mb near 27N62W. A cold front extends from the
low pressure southwestward to 23N67W, east of 1021 high pressure
centered near 28N72W. To the east, fresh or greater winds surround
the gale force low area described in the Special Features section
above across the waters north of 20N east of 45W. Winds are
moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters, along with
moderate seas.
For the forecast west of 55W, the front and low pressure will
exit the region Wed. Another cold front is expected to move off
the southeastern U.S. coast Thu accompanied by fresh to strong
winds and building seas on both sides of it. These conditions are
expected to persist into the weekend. By Sat, the front will stall
from near 26N55W to the vicinity of the Turks and Caicos.
$$
Christensen
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Tropical Weather Outlook
Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 110502
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 PM PST Tue Nov 10 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Pena, located several hundred miles southwest of Honolulu,
Hawaii.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Weather Discussion
Eastern Pacific
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110337
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Nov 11 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0255 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 06N91W. The ITCZ
stretches from 06N91W to 05N110W and to 09N132W. Scattered
moderate convection is found south of 15N and west of 105W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
The tight pressure gradient between a 1021 mb high pressure
system over the southern United States and lower pressures in the
deep tropics sustains fresh to strong northerly winds and seas
of 5-7 ft across the Gulf of Tehuantepec basin. Meanwhile, broad
ridging extends southeastward across the Baja California waters to
the Revillagigedo Island, allowing for moderate or lighter winds.
Long-period NW swell is producing seas of 8-12 ft in the offshore
waters of Baja California W and N of Cabo San Lazaro, with the
highest seas occurring W of Guadalupe Island. Elsewhere, slight to
moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, fresh northerly winds and rough seas around 8
ft will pulse to strong to locally near gale-force at night
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the remainder of the week.
Rough seas in NW swell will continue across the Baja offshore
waters, then begin to diminish tonight through Thu. Looking
ahead, fresh winds and rough seas approaching 12 ft are expected
to reach the offshore waters of Baja California by early Fri
through the day, associated with a frontal system. Yet a larger
NW swell arriving Sat will produce very rough seas to 20 ft.
Rough seas will reach all the way to near 100W by early next
week, while additional and reinforcing NW swell sets continue to
arrive.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
High pressure centered north of the Caribbean supports moderate to
fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 3-5 ft in the Gulf of
Papagayo region. Moderate northerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are
occurring in the Gulf of Panama to near the Azuero Peninsula.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds
will funnel across the Papagayo region and extend to 90W through
Wed night, then diminish for the end of the week into the
weekend. Moderate to fresh winds may return to the Papagayo
region by the end of the weekend into early next week. Moderate
to locally fresh winds will pulse in the western Gulf of Panama
through Wed morning, then again by the end of the weekend.
Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in merging
SW and NW swell will prevail, except locally rough SSW of the
Galapagos Islands through the week.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A surface trough in the western trade waters supports scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms. The rest of the tropical
eastern Pacific waters is under a broad subtropical ridge. The
pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the
deep tropics supports fresh to locally strong easterly trade
winds and seas of 8-11 ft from 10N to 25N and west of 120W.
Moderate to fresh SE winds and rough seas are found south of 03N
and between 100W and 125W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and seas of 5-8 ft prevail.
For the forecast, high pressure combined with troughing over the
W-central waters will support moderate to fresh easterly winds
and rough seas across the trade waters during the next few days.
New large NW swell moving into the north and western waters will
reach from 10N140W to the Revillagigedo Islands tonight. The
mixed swell over the equatorial waters will persist for the next
several days. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will reach our
NW border at 30N140W by midday Wed, bringing with it fresh to
strong winds on either side of the front, and very large seas in
NW swell north of 20N through the end of the week. Even larger
reinforcing NW swell may arrive Fri afternoon to the NW waters,
possibly in excess of 20 ft. This set of swell with seas of 8 ft
or greater will cover the waters N of 05N and W of 110W by late
Sat night, then covering all of the waters W of 105W.
$$
Delgado
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Tropical Weather Discussion
Central Pacific
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en Español
000
ACPN50 PHFO 110502
TWOCP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM HST Tue Nov 10 2026
For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Pena, located several hundred miles southwest of Honolulu,
Hawaii.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Blake
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