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Tropical Atlantic & Pacific Basin Outlooks & Discussions
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic - Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the
Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2025. During the
off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
conditions warrant.
$$
Forecaster Beven
NNNN
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Tropical Weather Discussion
Atlantic - Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico
000
AXNT20 KNHC 210836
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Feb 21 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event:
Large NW swell of 12 to 14 ft covers the eastern subtropical
Atlantic waters north of 20N between 20W and 43W. This swell will
shift S and E to cover the waters north of 16N between 15W and
40W today before gradually subsiding by Sat morning.
Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters
Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N14W to 00N25W. The ITCZ
extends from 00N25W to 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is
ongoing from 05S to 05N between 15W and the coast of western
Brazil.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A tight pressure gradient prevails over the SW Gulf supporting
strong to near gale force winds, and seas of 8-12 ft. Fresh to
strong winds, and seas of 8-11 ft, prevail elsewhere S of 24N.
Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, prevail N of 24N.
For the forecast, near gale force winds off Veracruz will
diminish to fresh speeds through Sat. A trough will develop over
the west- central and SW Gulf on Fri and linger through Sat night
while weakening. Low pressure will develop along the trough on Sat
near South Texas, then track NE through Sun night before
weakening through Sun night. The low will drag a frontal boundary
southeastward to just southeast of the basin by late Tue. Moderate
to fresh winds are expected behind the boundary as weak high
pressure builds over the NW Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A frontal boundary is over the NW waters. Fresh winds, and seas of
6-7 ft prevail W of the front. Strong to near gale winds are off
the coast of Colombia, with seas of 8-9 ft. Strong winds are in
the gulf of Venezuela. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds, and
seas of 5-8 ft, are E of 80W. Elsewhere W of 80W, gentle to
moderate winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, prevail.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas
will prevail over most of the central and eastern Caribbean
through Mon night, except for strong to near gale-force winds and
rough seas offshore of Colombia and within and near the Gulf of
Venezuela. A stationary front over the NW Caribbean will gradually
dissipate by this weekend. Strong high pressure building in the
wake of the front will bring fresh to strong NE winds in the Lee
of Cuba and the Windward Passage this evening through early Sun.
Otherwise, rough seas in east swell will continue east of the
Lesser Antilles through Sat, subsiding afterward.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
the Significant Swell.
A cold front extends from near 31N65W southwestward to central
Cuba. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-10 ft, are on either
side of the front N of 28N. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere
W of the front. Farther east, two areas of high pressure are
noted, a 1025 mb high centered near 29N45W and a 1024 mb high
centered near 28N29W. Light winds are in the vicinity of the high
center. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Aside from the
area discussed in the special features section above, seas of 8 ft
or greater cover the waters E of 60W. Elsewhere W of 60W, seas are
in the 5-8 ft range.
For the forecast west of 55W, the front will weaken as it reaches
from near 26N55W to 24N60W, continuing as a stationary front to
Haiti Sat night and dissipating soon afterward. Its remnant trough
will drift back west toward the southeastern Bahamas through Mon
while dissipating. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front
will lead to fresh to strong northeast winds south of 25N,
including the Straits of Florida and the Great Bahama Bank Fri
night into Sat night. Conditions begin to improve beginning Sun
morning and into early next week as a weak cold front moves across
the western part of the area.
$$
AL
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Tropical Weather Outlook
Eastern Pacific
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 PM PST Sat Nov 30 2024
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season. Routine issuance
of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2025. During
the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
conditions warrant.
$$
Forecaster Beven
NNNN
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Tropical Weather Discussion
Eastern Pacific
437
AXPZ20 KNHC 211539
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Feb 21 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure over NE
Mexico forces strong to gale-force northerly winds across the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. These winds will continue through Sat morning.
Peak seas to 12 ft are expected near and downstream of the
strongest winds. Winds will diminish below strong force and seas
below 8 ft by Sun morning.
For details, please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and
Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center
at the websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more
details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N82W to 05N127W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 05N140W. No significant convection
is noted at this time.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please refer to the Special Features section for information
regarding the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
A 1025 mb high pressure system located near 33N134W extends
southeastward into the offshore waters of Mexico. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass depicted moderate to fresh NW winds
in the waters off Baja California Norte, especially north of
Punta Eugenia. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Outside of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
are prevalent in the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters,
including the Gulf of California.
For the forecast, aside from gale force winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, moderate to fresh N to NW winds and rough seas will
occur north of Punta Eugenia through late this morning.
Otherwise, gentle to moderate NW winds will prevail offshore of
southwestern Mexico and in the Gulf of California into Sat.
Looking ahead, moderate to fresh NW winds will develop Sat night
in the central and southern Gulf of California and offshore of
southwestern Mexico as a strengthening pressure gradient develops
between building high pressure in the eastern Pacific and
troughing in western Mexico.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
The tight pressure gradient between a 1042 mb high pressure
system over the central United States and lower pressures in the
deep tropics result in fresh to strong easterly trade winds
across the Gulf of Papagayo and downstream waters to 90W. Seas
in these waters are 4-7 ft. Farther west, moderate to fresh
northerly winds and seas to 10 ft are found in the far offshore
waters of Guatemala due to the gap wind event occurring in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong NE to E winds will
prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun night due to a
strong ridge north of the Caribbean waters. The strongest winds
are expected each night and morning, and rough seas will occur
near and downstream of these winds. Moderate to fresh N winds
will continue well offshore of Guatemala through late this
morning, generated by gale force winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Rough seas of 8 to 10 ft will occur in this region
through early Sat. Elsewhere, winds will pulse to moderate to
occasionally strong speeds in the Gulf of Panama each night and
morning tonight through the weekend. Otherwise, gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across
the remainder of the offshore waters of Central and South America
into early next week.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A 1025 mb high pressure system centered north of the tropical
eastern Pacific supports moderate to fresh easterly trade winds
north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and west of 105W. Seas in
these waters are 6-9 ft. Farther east, moderate to fresh NE-E
winds and moderate seas are found north of 08N and east of 105W
in association with downstream winds from the gap wind event
occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, fresh N to NE winds and rough seas will
prevail north of 10N and west of 105W through early next week.
Mixed NW and W swell will produce rough seas north of 05N and
west of 130W through today before seas diminish into this
weekend. Rough seas generated by gap winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec and Gulf of Papagayo will prevail from 05N to 15N and
as far west as 110W into this weekend. Otherwise, ridging
extending through the eastern Pacific waters will support
moderate N to NE winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough.
Looking ahead, a long-period NW swell will lead to rough seas
north of 20N and west of 130W by early next week.
$$
ERA
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Tropical Weather Discussion
Central Pacific
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