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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, on 
Hurricane Leslie, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, 
and on Tropical Storm Milton, located over the southwestern Gulf of 
Mexico.

1. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa 
in a few days.  Some development of this system is possible 
thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the 
eastern tropical Atlantic.  The system is expected to move near or 
over the Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday and Thursday, and interests 
there should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Milton are issued under WMO 
header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. 
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Milton are issued under WMO 
header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

Forecaster Beven

000
AXNT20 KNHC 060927
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Oct 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Kirk is centered north of the area near 33.5N 49.0W at 
06/0900 UTC or 1100 nm W of the Azores, moving NNE at 20 kt. 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb. Maximum sustained 
wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas are 
estimated at 51 ft, just N of the area. Numerous moderate isolated
strong convection is noted within 600 nm in the NE quadrant, 360 
nm in the SE quadrant, 150 nm in the SW quadrant, and 420 nm in 
the NW quadrant. An acceleration toward the northeast and east-
northeast is expected over the next few days while Kirk moves 
across the northeastern Atlantic. Although weakening is expected
through midweek, Kirk will remain a large hurricane for the next 
next day or so before transitioning to an extratropical cyclone by
early Tue. Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Bermuda, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the east coast of
the United States. These swells will continue spreading northward
along the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada today,
and to the Azores on Mon. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult 
products from your local weather office.

Hurricane Leslie is centered near 12.9N 37.3W at 06/0900 UTC or
760 nm W of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, moving NW at 9
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are
estimated at 24 ft. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection 
is noted within 210 nm of the center, except within 360 nm in the 
SE quadrant. Leslie is moving toward the northwest and this 
general motion is expected to continue over the next few days.
Small intensity fluctuations are possible today, but weakening is
forecast to begin on Mon and continue through midweek.

Tropical Storm Milton is centered near 23.0N 94.9W at 06/0900
UTC or 310 nm WNW of Progreso Mexico, moving E at 4 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are estimated 
at 13 ft. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
within 60 nm in the NE quadrant, 150 nm in the S semicircle, and 
90 nm in the NW quadrant. An eastward to east-northeastward 
motion is forecast during the next couple of days, followed by a 
faster northeastward motion. On the forecast track, Milton is 
forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico and approach the west 
coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Steady to rapid
strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Milton is 
forecast to become a hurricane tonight, and it could become a 
major hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf
of Mexico. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida
today and Mon well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more 
directly related to the system expected later on Tue through 
Wed night. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and 
areal flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding.
Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast of 
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected 
to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by 
early next week, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip 
current conditions. Please consult products from your local 
weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
NHC Forecasts/Advisories and Public Advisories for Tropical 
Storm Milton, Hurricane Kirk, and Hurricane Leslie at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is just west of the Cabo Verde
Islands with its axis near 27W, south of 18N, moving slowly west
at 5 to 10 kt. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted
near the northern tip of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and extends 
SW to 05N23W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 06.5N43W to 12N57W. 
Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 12N to 16N between
the coast of Africa and 19W, and from 07N to 14N between 55W and
62W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for more 
information about Tropical Storm Milton.

Other than Milton, a 1010 mb low is analyzed near 25.5N87.5W while
a surface trough stretches from 27N82.5W through the low to
25N94W. Winds north of the trough and east of 94W are fresh to
locally strong as seen on an earlier ASCAT scatterometer pass,
where seas are 3 to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3 ft
or less are mainly east of Milton and south of the low and trough,
with moderate to fresh winds and 4 to 6 ft seas elsewhere in the
western Gulf. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted
south of 26N to the east of 90W with locally higher winds and seas
possible in and near them.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Milton is near 23.0N 94.9W at
5 AM EDT, and is moving east at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are
45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 
1003 mb. Milton will move to 23.0N 94.1W this afternoon, 
strengthen to a hurricane near 22.9N 92.9W Mon morning, 22.9N 
91.4W Mon afternoon, 23.4N 89.6W Tue morning, 24.5N 87.4W Tue 
afternoon, and 26.0N 85.3W Wed morning. Milton will change little 
in intensity as it moves to 29.0N 80.7W early Thu. Meanwhile a 
frontal trough or front will linger across the northern Gulf ahead
of Milton with fresh to strong winds and building seas, mainly 
north of 26N. Conditions may improve across the basin by the end 
of next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A diffluent pattern aloft combined with a surface trough covers 
the NW Caribbean while an upper-level trough extends from the 
Windward Passage to the SW Caribbean. This upper-level pattern 
is helping to induce convection over the Greater Antilles as well
as SW of the Windward Passage to between Cuba and Jamaica. A weak
pressure gradient across the region supports light to gentle 
winds. Seas are generally 3 ft or less, higher and near Atlantic
passages due mainly to distant and departing Hurricane Kirk.

For the forecast, Milton will move to 23.0N 94.1W this afternoon,
strengthen to a hurricane near 22.9N 92.9W Mon morning, 22.9N 
91.4W Mon afternoon, 23.4N 89.6W Tue morning, 24.5N 87.4W Tue 
afternoon, and 26.0N 85.3W Wed morning. Milton will change little 
in intensity as it moves to 29.0N 80.7W early Thu, with impacts 
possible in the far NW Caribbean, including near the Yucatan 
Channel. Meanwhile, long period NE to E swells associated with 
distant and departing Hurricane Kirk will continue to impact the 
Tropical N Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages through today. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas 
will persist across the basin into the early part of the week. 
Winds may freshen in the eastern Caribbean mid-week due to an 
incoming tropical wave. Long-period swell associated with 
Hurricane Leslie, forecast to remain E of the Tropical N Atlantic,
may impact the Atlantic waters mid-week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section on Hurricanes Kirk 
and Leslie, as well as on Tropical Storm Milton which may impact 
the Atlantic waters offshore eastern Florida next week.

A weak low is analyzed near 30.5N62W as depicted on earlier
scatterometer data. Winds are moderate to fresh north of 27N
between the low and 70W. Otherwise, broad ridging dominates the
remainder of the tropical Atlantic waters outside of Kirk and
Leslie. Winds are mainly gentle to moderate away from the systems,
locally fresh offshore northern Morrocco. As for seas, large swell
associated with Kirk dominate most of the waters north of 18N and
east of the Bahamas to 40W. Seas are 4 to 7 ft elsewhere away from
Kirk and Leslie, except locally 7 to 9 ft near the fresh winds
offshore northern Morrocco.

For the forecast west of 55W, Milton will move to 23.0N 94.1W this
afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 22.9N 92.9W Mon 
morning, 22.9N 91.4W Mon afternoon, 23.4N 89.6W Tue morning, 24.5N
87.4W Tue afternoon, and 26.0N 85.3W Wed morning. Milton will 
change little in intensity as it moves to 29.0N 80.7W early Thu. 
Meanwhile, long period NE to E swells associated with distant and 
departing Hurricane Kirk will continue to impact the waters E of 
the Bahamas through the remainder of the weekend, subsiding during
the early part of the week. Looking ahead, farther E, swells 
associated with Hurricane Leslie, forecast to remain E of the 
area, may impact the waters E of 60W by mid-week. 

$$
Lewitsky

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Oct 5 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located off the coast of 
southwestern Mexico are associated with a broad area of low 
pressure. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a 
tropical depression could form during the early or middle portion of 
next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward, roughly 
parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. Regardless of 
development, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions 
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.


Forecaster Reinhart

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060830
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Oct 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 15N98W to 09N119W to beyond 
13N140W. Scattered moderate convection can be found N of 14N 
between 101W and 107W. Another area of scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 13N to 17W and W of 133W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1021 mb located near 29N132W extends a ridge 
across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting
moderate to fresh NW winds. Seas of 4 to 5 ft in NW swell 
prevail across the area. In the Gulf of California, light and 
variable winds are noted per latest satellite derived wind data. 
Seas are 1 to 2 ft. Elsewhere, across the Mexican offshore 
waters, light to gentle winds are observed with seas of 4 to 6 ft
primarily in SW swell. 

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California producing
pulsing moderate to fresh NW winds and slight to moderate seas 
into early week. Looking ahead, disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms located off the coast of southwestern Mexico are 
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Gradual development
of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form
during the early or middle portion of the week while the system 
moves slowly west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of
southwestern Mexico. Regardless of development, this system 
could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of southwestern 
Mexico during the next few days. This system has a low change of
tropical cyclone development through 48 hours, and a medium 
chance through 7 days. Fresh to strong N winds and moderate to 
rough seas are expected in the Tehuantepec region by the middle 
of next week as a northerly flow establishes over the western 
Gulf of Mexico in the wake of tropical cyclone Milton E of the 
area.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds are noted N of 05N while gentle to 
moderate southerly winds prevail between the Equator and 5N. Seas
are in general 3 to 5 ft in SW swell, except 1 to 3 ft in the 
Gulf of Panama, and in the coastal waters of Colombia.

For the forecast, gentle SW to W winds are forecast across the 
offshore waters from Guatemala to northern Costa Rica, while 
gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail elsewhere through 
the middle of the week. Moderate seas, in long period SW swell, 
will prevail across the area.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1021 mb high pressure analyzed near 29N132W dominates the 
northern forecast waters. A 1012 mb low pressure is centered 
along the monsoon trough near 15N135W. Fresh winds are occurring
within about 210 nm in the NE quadrant of the low center with 
seas to 7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate 
seas prevail, with the exception of moderate to fresh SE to S 
winds S of the monsoon trough between 98W and 111W.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the
north waters early this week while strengthening some. The 
pressure gradient between the associated ridge and the low 
pressure along the monsoon will support an area of fresh winds in
the NE quadrant of the low center through at least Mon. The low 
is forecast to open-up into a trough Mon night into Tue W of 
area. 

$$
ERA

No Storms to Report