283
FXUS61 KRLX 300924
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
524 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Updated 12Z aviation discussion.

As of 150 AM Tuesday...

Upgraded much of the area to an Extreme Heat Warning for
Today through Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Dangerous heat and humidity will impact the region today
through Friday.

2. Strong high pressure aloft will suppress most shower and
thunderstorm activity through Thursday.

3. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase heading into the
holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A highly amplified H500 ridge will continue to build into the
region today, eventually positioning directly overhead Wednesday
into Thursday before beginning to deamplify and shift east on
Friday. This synoptic setup will deliver a prolonged period of
dangerous heat to the region. High temperatures this afternoon
will generally reach the lower to mid 90s F across the lowlands,
pushing heat index values into the low triple digits for many
locations. As the ridge axis centers overhead Wednesday and
Thursday, subsidence will maximize, allowing temperatures to
climb into the upper 90s to near 100 across the Metro Valley and
southern coalfields.

A significant forecast challenge with this event
involves the handling of surface dew points. Central guidance
aggressively holds dew points in the upper 70s. However, the
it carries a known high bias for dew points during these
setups. Conversely, some high resolution guidance over mixes
the boundary layer, crashing dew points into the upper 60s,
especially on Wednesday with drier air noted aloft. Given the
tropical nature of the airmass but acknowledging the mixing
potential under the ridge, the forecast represents a compromise.
Dew points have been reduced from central guidance toward a
broader model consensus, yielding afternoon dew points in the
lower to mid 70s.

Even with these slightly lower dew points, the combination of
upper 90s temperatures and mid 70s dew points will push heat
indices above 105. Due to the extended duration of the heat,
warm overnight lows in the low 70s, and heat indices exceeding
warning criteria for at least a portion of the duration of this
event, much of the area has been upgraded to an Extreme Heat
Warning for Today through Friday, with Heat Advisories remaining
for the higher terrain and fringes.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The aforementioned H500 ridge and associated strong mid-level
subsidence will keep a firm lid on convective development
through mid-week. While an isolated diurnally driven shower or
thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out this afternoon
before the strongest subsidence arrives, coverage will be far
too sparse to warrant anything more than an isolated mention in
the forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

By Friday and into the weekend, the H500 ridge will begin to
deamplify and shift eastward. This will allow tropically
influenced moisture to pool across the area under weaker
steering flow. The erosion of the subsidence inversion will lead
to increasing coverage of diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms. In addition, as the ridge breaks down, the region
will become increasingly susceptible to shortwave energy or
remnants of upstream mesoscale convective systems approaching
from the Midwest by early next week, though confidence remains
low on specific temporal and spatial details at this range.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Patchy fog mixes out slightly after the 12Z TAF package at EKN.
Scattered diurnal cumulus with bases around 4000 to 5000 ft
will develop this afternoon. A rogue afternoon shower cannot be
ruled out before stronger subsidence arrives, but chances are
too low for inclusion at any TAF site. Winds will remain light
and generally out of the south to southwest at 5 KTs or less.

With ridging aloft moving overhead tonight, expect more valley
fog to develop, potentially affecting all terminals.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: An isolated shower could approach BKW this
afternoon. Fog development overnight tonight could vary from
the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               TUE 06/30/26
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in morning valley fog Thursday and Friday morning.

&&

.Climate...
Heat continues to build as a dome of high pressure arrives
overhead through Thursday. A few daily record highs could be
challenged.



  Forecast / Record High Temperatures
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Tue, 6/30      |    Wed, 7/1     |    Thu, 7/2     |    Fri, 7/3     |
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 94 / 99  (1936) | 96 / 102 (1931) | 99 / 105 (1931) | 98 / 105 (1931) |
HTS | 95 / 100 (2012) | 97 / 102 (1941) | 98 / 101 (1931) | 98 / 97  (2012) |
CKB | 92 / 98  (1969) | 94 / 98  (1931) | 96 / 99  (1931) | 95 / 100 (1966) |
PKB | 95 / 97  (1933) | 97 / 99  (1931) | 97 / 98  (1931) | 95 / 99  (2012) |
BKW | 86 / 100 (1936) | 89 / 93  (1941) | 93 / 94  (1931) | 93 / 93  (1931) |
EKN | 88 / 95  (2012) | 91 / 94 ( 1913) | 95 / 93  (1966) | 95 / 92  (1911) |
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT
     Friday for WVZ005>010-013>019-024>026.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT Friday for
     WVZ011-020-027>034-039-040-515-517-519-521-525.
OH...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT
     Friday for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT
     Friday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT Friday for
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP
CLIMATE...JP