167
FXUS66 KOTX 300617
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1117 PM PDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms in northeast WA and north ID Monday
  afternoon and evening.

- Warmer and drier for the end of the week

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Through Monday evening, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected over north ID and northeast WA. Cooler than normal
conditions continue through the week with isolated mountain
shower activity. By the weekend, a ridge will build bringing
temperatures back up to normal in time for the holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tuesday: The region is being influenced by a long
wave trough pattern along the Pacific coastline with a Low over
central MT. Wrap around bands, from the Low, will continue to
bring showers and isolated thunderstorms to portions of the
region. Cape values are in the 500 plus J/KG. The best chances
are North ID and Northeast WA with a 20-30% chance through 11 PM
PDT. Areas from the Okanogan Valley, north of hwy 2, and to the
ID/MT border have a 10-20% chance. Main impacts will gusty
winds, infrequent lightning, brief heavy rain, and small hail.
Outside of thunderstorms, these areas have at least a 50%
probability of a tenth or greater rainfall. The threat will
decrease has the Low continues to drift East overnight. Tuesday
will similar to Monday but area will be drier and more stable.
Early stratus clouds through the morning and clearing by the
afternoon. Instability is weaker with only 200-300 J/kg of Cape
along the northern mountains. An isolated thunderstorm is
possible but chances are less than 15% for the afternoon and
early evening. Afternoon winds will continue to breezy through
the Cascades Gaps with sustained in the teens and gusts in the
upper 20s and low 30s mph. Highs will be in the upper 60s and
low 80s. Overnight lows will be in the 50s tonight. The drier
air will cool Tuesday night with lows in the 40s.

Wednesday through Friday: The trough pattern will continue
through the period but a off shore High will begin to nudge into
the region. It will push the moisture further North and promote
a warming, drying trend through the end of the week. Clusters
show a quick moving trough moving the region Friday afternoon.
It brings increased thunder chances(5-10%) to the Inland
Northwest. It will be something to keep an eye for the start of
the upcoming holiday weekend. Any chance of precip will be over
the mountains with little to no accumulation expected. Afternoon
winds will continue to be breezy through the Cascade Gaps.
Highs will be in the 70s to low 80s on Wednesday and upper 70s
and 80s by Friday. Overnight lows will be in the 40s to low 50s.

Saturday and Sunday: Weak ridging pattern begins to build into
the region. It will bring a dry, warm weekend for the 4th. Sky
conditions will generally cloud free. For those outdoors,
remember to hydrate and prep for sunny conditions. Highs climb
into the 80s and low 90s. Overnight lows will be in the 50s to
low 60s. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs: Residual showers from previous thunderstorms are
still continuing to move through Stevens and Pend Orielle
counties. A thin line of showers has dropped south into SFF.
While there is a chance for light showers at GEG, these showers
are mostly moving away, so a PROB30 has been introduced. Very
light rainfall is moving south into the COE area but looks to be
dissipating. There is a 30-40% of intermittent light showers
from 09Z through 18Z that it is reflected at GEG, SFF, and COE.
PUW, LWS, MWH, and EAT are not expected to see precipitation
through the forecast period. VFR conditions are expected at all
TAF sites through the forecast period. Winds will get a little
breezy in the afternoon but only EAT is expected to get wind
gusts >20kts. At around 21Z, a weak cold front will move through
the area, temporarily turning GEG, SFF, and COE winds westward
before they go back to mostly southward by the end of the
period.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in VFR conditions through the forecast period.
Low to moderate confidence in intermittent showers at GEG, SFF,
and COE through 18Z. High confidence in winds remaining mostly
>10kts or below. Low to moderate confidence in wind shifts at
21Z due to a frontal passage - this is the most impactful
alternate scenario and would require amendments if winds don`t
shift as far west as is noted in the TAF. /AS

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        74  51  73  51  73  48 /  40  50  20   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  70  50  72  51  72  48 /  70  60  30   0   0   0
Pullman        66  48  70  44  70  43 /  80  30  30   0   0   0
Lewiston       72  51  78  53  78  52 /  90  30  30   0   0   0
Colville       82  52  72  47  74  44 /  40  80  70  30  20  10
Sandpoint      69  50  68  49  70  47 /  80  80  60  10   0   0
Kellogg        62  48  69  48  71  46 / 100  70  30   0   0   0
Moses Lake     84  54  81  50  80  48 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      82  59  79  56  78  54 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           87  59  80  55  79  51 /  10  40  30  30  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$