922
FXUS64 KEWX 300555
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1255 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1245 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

- Hot and seasonable temperatures continue through the Holiday
  Weekend.

- Low shower and thunderstorm chances return late this weekend into
  early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

A look at GOES East Water Vapor imagery places south central Texas
on the western periphery of a  597dm mid-level ridge centered over
Tennessee. Meanwhile, a large trough remains situated over the
western CONUS, resulting in southwesterly flow aloft over the
northern Plains. Mid-level east to east-southeasterly flow aloft
will continue to feed in the SAL (Saharan Dust Layer) but it
shouldn`t be quite as intense on Tuesday and Wednesday. Hazy skies
will still continue but the worst of it is over for now.
Temperatures will remain hot, but seasonable, in the mid to upper
90s today and tomorrow along with heat indices in the 100-106 range.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Our hot and dry pattern is expected to continue through at least
Saturday as mid-level ridging remains in control over the
southeastern CONUS. The ridge finally shows some weaknesses and
breaks down somewhat Sunday and Monday of next week, resulting in a
return of rain and thunderstorm chances. Otherwise, expect more of
the same for the region beyond those rain chances as the Summer heat
continues.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

NASA GMAO Dust Aerosol Optical Thickness modeling loop would
suggest that the Saharan Air Layer plume is mostly through the
area and should begin to decrease. We still think some decoupling
of winds might bring a few hours of slightly reduced VSBYs but for
all areas to remain VFR on the VSBY side of things. MVFR CIGs
remain a daily trend with the breezy pattern making some of the
stratus areas ragged and difficult to track. We`ll just keep with
a blend of persistence, MOS guidances and keep with a typical
diurnal trend for late June for now. Slightly lowering wind trends
and several days of dry weather stacking up should eventually
lead to reduced stratus, but good SE onshore wind directions
overnight should continue mostly persistence at least for this
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              95  77  96  75 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  95  77  95  76 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     95  75  94  74 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            94  75  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           98  76  98  77 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        95  76  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             94  74  94  74 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        95  75  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   95  76  95  75 /  10   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       94  76  94  75 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           95  76  94  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...18