368
FXUS64 KCRP 292305
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
605 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 551 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

- Moderate risk of heat-related impacts through next week,
  afternoon heat indices of 100-108

- Very low rain chances return latter half of the week, mainly
  along seabreeze over the inland Coastal Plains

- Saharan dust may cause hazy conditions at times into early
  Tuesday morning

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

No significant changes from the previous forecast. Our weather will
remain controlled under the southwestern edge of a mid-level ridge
centered over the east-central CONUS through this work week. Mostly
rain-free conditions with max temperatures in the 90s along with
heat indices of 100-108 are expected through this weekend. The ridge
begins to break apart and weaken latter half of the week, allowing
for shortwaves to ride the southern edge and increase moisture
across the area to above normal with PWATs between 1.75-2.00". This
increase in moisture and lesser subsidence will allow for very low
shower and thunderstorm chances (5-15%) to return along the
seabreeze over the Coastal Plains the latter half of the week.

Model discrepancies of the synoptic flow and rain chances become
more apparent early next week Sunday into Monday. Various solutions
are shown in relation to the progression of the main mid to upper
level trough stretching from Central Plains into the Great Lakes.
The GFS wants to develop a cut-off low over Mexico, the ECMWF keeps
the main trough intact with a shortwave over the ARKLATEX region,
and the CMC brings the trough all the way down to the Texas Coast.
All in all to say that there is little confidence on the setup early
next week, keeping rain chances below 15%.

Dust aerosol optical thickness forecast from NASA/GMAO shows notable
dust concentration moving over South Texas this afternoon into early
Tuesday morning. Haze has been thick enough to lead to occasional
reductions in visibility at a few sites along the coast. The
increase in dust can heighten allergies and respiratory issues.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Breezy south to southeast winds will continue this evening with
mainly VFR conditions. Winds will diminish overnight before
becoming breezy once again Tuesday. MVFR ceilings could develop
across all terminals late tonight/early Tuesday morning before VFR
conditions return.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 119 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect over the bays and nearshore
waters through this evening for winds around 20 knots. Afterwards, a
moderate to fresh breeze (BF 4-5) tonight will weaken to a gentle to
moderate (BF 3-4) Tuesday through this upcoming weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  91  78  91 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          76  93  76  94 /   0   0  10  10
Laredo            77  99  76  99 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             75  93  75  94 /   0   0   0  10
Rockport          81  91  81  91 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           75  97  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        76  91  76  91 /   0   0   0  10
Navy Corpus       81  89  81  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ231-232-
     250.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...LS/77