208
FXUS64 KOHX 300416
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1116 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1057 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

- Expect dangerous heat and humidity through late this week. An
  Extreme Heat Warning is in effect through Thursday for much of
  the area.

- High temperatures will reach the mid to upper 90s across the
  warning area, with afternoon heat index values as hot as 110+.
  Overnight lows will also remain uncomfortably warm, only falling
  into the mid to upper 70s most areas.

- Low chances for rain and storms will emerge later in the week,
  with better chances this weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

A surface ridge sits to the east of Middle Tennessee this evening
while the upper high circulates directly overhead. So the
environment remains somewhat dry owing to the deep subsidence,
despite the high surface dew points. Conditions will remain hot
and terribly humid with heat index values climbing well into the
100s most areas west of the Cumberland Plateau through the end of
the week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Middle Tennessee won`t see appreciable rain chances until
Thursday, by which time the ridge will start to flatten out and we
can perhaps expect to get diurnal convection mainly during peak-
heating hours. Temperatures and heat indices will start to back
off a little starting on Saturday, at least enough so that no
advisories would be needed. Also, rain chances will pick up a
little bit over the weekend as a surface boundary and upper trough
might actually slip through. Temperatures next week look to stay
closer to seasonal normals, which would certainly bring some
relief following this week`s hot weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at BNA/MQY/CKV. Patchy fog
is expected to develop on the plateau after 06z with low to medium
chances of impacting CSV/SRB. Any fog will mix out by 13z with
VFR conditions for the remainder of the forecast. Winds are
expected to be 5 kts or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      78  98  78  99 /   0   0   0  10
Clarksville    75  97  76  97 /   0   0   0  10
Crossville     71  91  73  93 /   0  10   0  10
Columbia       75  98  77  99 /   0   0   0  20
Cookeville     73  92  74  94 /   0   0   0  10
Jamestown      71  91  72  93 /   0   0   0  10
Lawrenceburg   75  96  76  96 /   0   0   0  20
Murfreesboro   76  99  77 100 /   0   0   0  10
Waverly        75  97  76  98 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Thursday for TNZ005>010-
023>032-056>064-075-093>095.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 8 PM CDT Thursday for TNZ011-
033-034-065-066-077>080.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Reagan