322
FXUS62 KILM 292323
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
723 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation discussion updated for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous heat with near-record high temperatures expected from
late this week into the weekend.

2) Very low chance for tropical/subtropical cyclone development
off the southeast U.S. coast mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat with near-record high temperatures
expected from late this week into the weekend.

Mid-upper high pressure centered over the Mid-South today will
gradually pivot northeastward through midweek and become anomalously
strong (with 700mb, 500mb, and 200mb height values at or above the
99.5th percentile for this time of year) before settling over the
Carolinas late this week. Given the placement of this upper high and
deep-layer flow mainly between north and east, plenty of dry air and
subsidence is anticipated, leading to virtually no chance for
pop-up showers and storms to offer relief from the heat this
week. Nevertheless, the dry air aloft mixing down each afternoon
will help to lower dew points and keep heat index values very
near the temperature, except around the sea breeze where ocean
water temperatures in the low-mid 80s will locally raise dew
points and heat index values, even if temperatures fall slightly
behind it. The specifics on when and where heat index values
reach Heat Advisory criteria (105-109F for 2+ hours) are hard to
pin down as temperatures and dew points will continue to be
refined in the coming days, but unfortunately, it appears the
hottest period will coincide with the Independence Day holiday
weekend.

Everyone is encouraged to plan ahead for the dangerously hot
conditions and take proper precautions. Check out our heat page
(weather.gov/ilm/heat) for the latest heat forecast/safety info.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Very low chance for tropical/subtropical
cyclone development off the southeast U.S. coast mid week.

The dry air and subsidence mentioned above is expected to keep
the prospects for any weak subtropical or tropical low off the
coast very low (10%) and highly unlikely to affect the local
area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR presently at all sites. Other than ILM expect VFR will
dominate the valid TAF period. At ILM MVFR and even IFR stratus
is possible after midnight tonight. Enhanced northeast winds
this evening will spread low level moisture along the NC coast
from midnight through daybreak. High likelihood of at least MVFR
stratus developing around 09Z and lasting as late as 14Z before
clouds mix out and VFR returns. Northeast winds along the coast
tonight will become east mid to late morning Tue. Inland winds
will be light and variable overnight before northeast to east
winds develop mid-morning.

Extended Forecast... Predominantly VFR. Low clouds possible Tuesday
night and Wednesday night. Fog possible Thursday night and Friday
night.

&&

.MARINE...
Monday night through Saturday... Behind a cold front, north winds
are forecast to veer to northeast and increase this evening, with
seas following suit. The enhanced flow peaks on Tuesday with speeds
between 15-20 kts and seas up to 2-5 ft in the 0-20nmi zones and 4-6
ft in the 20-60nmi zones. Expect northeast to east winds and seas to
subside from Tuesday night through Thursday as high pressure over
the central Appalachians holds in place. As a thermal trough
develops over the Piedmont late this week, expect winds to veer
further into the southeast to south range for Thursday through
Saturday with seas subsiding into the 1-3 ft range.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ABW
DISCUSSION...ABW
AVIATION...III
MARINE...ABW