945
FXUS64 KTSA 300454
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1154 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1154 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

 - Hot, humid and dry weather persists this week. Heat advisory
   headlines are in effect Tuesday for portions of the area, and
   may be needed in the days following.

 - Flooding continues on main-stem rivers in northeast Oklahoma.

 - Low chances for afternoon storms in the terrain of SE OK and NW
   AR Thursday and Friday. Low storm chances continue with a weak
   front Sunday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas remains between the dome
of high pressure currently centered over the southeastern/eastern
CONUS and surface high pressure centered over the high Plains.
These features continue through Tuesday, which will continue the
warmer and humid conditions across the CWA. Winds Tuesday are
anticipated to be slightly lighter in response to the surface low
out west weakening, and thus easing the pressure gradient force
slightly over the region. Wind gusts of 15 to around 25 mph are
still forecast though, which will help in the continued afternoon
mixing of low level moisture/surface dewpoints. This should keep
much of the CWA below heat advisory criteria with mid 90s to
around 102 deg heat index values. The exception is the Arkansas
River Valley of west central Arkansas. Have added southern
Crawford and northern Sebastian cos to go along with Franklin co
in a Heat Advisory for heat index values around 105 deg Tuesday
afternoon. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s should be
common for the CWA under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Lows
in the 70s are forecast Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

The ridge of high pressure begins to reposition more to the east
and northeast of the CWA Wednesday through the end of the week.
This allows for more southeasterly low level flow to return
moisture advection back into the region. The combination of
moisture and afternoon heating could allow for a slight chance of
storms to develop each afternoon for the second half of the week.
The greater potential is across far eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas Thursday and Friday afternoons. Any storm development
could create localized strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall. Also
with the slight increase in moisture content, afternoon
temperatures look to be a couple degrees or so warmer compared to
early week, which will aid in the potential for more locations to
reach heat advisory criteria late week.

Over the weekend, the ridge of high pressure is progged to flatten
while a shortwave moves into/through the Plains. Additional shower
and thunderstorm chances develop, especially late weekend with a
weak frontal boundary approaching the region. In the wake of the
shortwave, surface high pressure becomes centered over the
West/Desert Southwest for the start of next week with continued
hot and humid conditions across the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period for all
sites. Breezy south winds will decrease overnight, but remain near
or above 10 kts much of the night. South-southwest 30-45kt LLWS
develops across E OK and NW AR sites between 03-14z. Sfc winds
increase again Tuesday morning with gusts near 20 kts during the
afternoon, especially across E OK. Otherwise, FEW to SCT high
clouds will continue to pass over the region through Tuesday,
with a period of FEW to SCT clouds near 2500-4000 ft possible
again during the morning-early afternoon hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  95  79  95 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   78  96  77  96 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   79  94  78  94 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   78  93  77  94 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   77  92  75  93 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   75  93  73  92 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   78  93  77  94 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   77  92  76  93 /   0   0   0   0
F10   77  94  76  93 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   78  94  76  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ129-219-220.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...43