698
FXUS61 KCLE 300554
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
154 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Parts of Northwestern and Northern Ohio have been upgraded into an
Extreme Heat Warning beginning tomorrow. The Heat Advisory has been
expanded to include Northwestern Pennsylvania.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot and humid conditions will continue through much of the week
as high pressure builds in to the southeast.

2) Precipitation chances return to the region on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A warm front will continue to move north across the region this
evening into the early overnight hours. High pressure builds in
southeast of the area early tomorrow and will persist through much
of the week. As a result, there will be west to southwesterly flow
across the region that will bring in warm moist air with
temperatures and dew points climbing as a result. High temperatures
will rise up into the upper 80s to low 90s this evening then into
the mid to upper 90s through Thursday. With dew points climbing into
the upper 60s to mid 70s, heat indices will be in climb over 100
degrees for all of the region. Northwest and Northern Ohio will
climb above 105 starting tomorrow and have been upgraded to an
Extreme Heat Warning. Overnight lows will be mild throughout the
week will lows in the mid to upper 70s providing little relief to
the heat related impacts.

The upper level ridge begins to break down towards the end of the
week. Temperatures are still expected to be above average with highs
in the upper 80s to low 90s through the weekend. Heat related
headlines may need to be extended across much of Ohio. Though,
depending on how the precipitation unfolds late this week will
determine how warm some areas get.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
As the upper level ridge breaks down and the surface high pressure
weakens, precipitation chances will return to the region beginning
on Friday. Global models show a shortwave across fairly zonal flow
moving through the region on Friday, though there has been quite a
bit of variance in the models. Will need to continue to monitor
this time frame to see how convection will impact our region
Friday night into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with
south to southwest flow across the region. Some low VFR clouds
are developing over Northeast Ohio this morning with the warm
air advection. These clouds may form a low VFR ceiling for
areas along and east of KCLE to K10G and may persist for a while
into Tuesday at KERI. Otherwise, some diurnal cumulus may form
across the region this afternoon and subside this evening. Some
wind gusts to 20 kts are possible in Northwest Ohio.

Outlook...VFR through most of Thursday. Low risk for an isolated
shower or storm Thursday afternoon. Greater potential for
scattered showers and storms Friday and Saturday afternoons.

&&

.MARINE...
A warm front will move across the lake early this morning and
usher in southwest flow to the basin. This flow averaging 10 kts
should remain through the forecast period and into the weekend.
There could be a lake breeze that develops east of Cleveland to
allow for minor shifts in wind direction but they would be
short-lived. Shower and thunderstorm activity will return
starting on Thursday night into the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Hotter and more humid weather is expected this Monday through Friday.
Record warm high temperatures may be challenged. Here are those records
for each of our climate stations:

Date    Toledo         Mansfield      Cleveland      Akron          Youngstown     Erie
06-29   100(1952)      96(1934)       94(2012)       98(1952)       99(1933)       90(2021)
06-30   97(1953)       94(1970)       95(1941)       96(1913)       94(1942)       92(1930)
07-01   98(1931)       98(1931)       95(2002)       97(1931)       96(1931)       94(2018)
07-02   98(2011)       97(1931)       97(1954)       98(1931)       98(1931)       94(1963)
07-03   100(1911)      93(2020)       98(1949)       97(1911)       98(1898)       93(1934)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until noon EDT today for OHZ003-006-017.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Sefcovic