512
FXUS63 KBIS 301125
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
625 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Westerly winds around 25 mph gusting to 45 mph expected today
  into early this evening.

- Near to a bit below average temperatures today, with a gradual
  warming trend through the work week.

- Mainly dry weather through Wednesday, with more widespread
  chances returning Thursday through the end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

For early morning update only change was to increase cloud cover
over the Turtle Mountains for a few hours. Otherwise, going
forecast is in good shape.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 440 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Current surface analysis places deep low over southern Manitoba,
with high over the northern Rockies. Upper level analysis places
low generally along the southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba border. A
short wave sliding along the southern part of the low is
resulting in a few light showers now moving from far northwest
into far north central North Dakota.

For today, deep low becomes stacked and lingers over southern
Manitoba, with low shower/thunderstorm chances remaining mainly
over far northern portions of our area. The main impact for our
area will be gusty winds developing with the expected pressure
gradient over our area. Westerly winds will be on the increase
today, becoming gusty mid-day through the afternoon when
forecast soundings indicate adequate mixing of higher winds to
the surface. At this time expect wind gusts to 45 mph possible,
so have gone with a Wind Advisory through all of western and
central North Dakota including the James River Valley. By early
evening expect winds start diminishing as the stronger mixing
comes to an end.

On Wednesday, low continues to loiter over southern Manitoba
before starting to open and push off to the east. System will
weaken through the day so do not expect the wind impacts we will
see today, but with the cyclonic flow over our area can`t rule
out a few showers and maybe a few weak thunderstorms developing.

In the meantime, upper level high pressure will be well
entrenched over the southeastern CONUS, with an extended period
of southwest flow setting up over our area for Thursday into
Friday. A variety of waves lift through the flow bringing likely
showers and thunderstorms to our area Thursday into Friday, with
machine learning guidance continuing to indicate a severe
potential in this period. The chances for precipitation continue
into Saturday, but severe guidance is more questionable in this
period.

Temperatures look to gradually warm through the work week, with
a possible brief minor dip on Saturday. Warming trend then looks
to return to start the upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Gusty
westerly winds are expected late this morning through early this
evening. Wind gusts to 40 kts will be possible during this
period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-
017>020-022-023-025-031>033-035>037-040>044-046>048-050-051-
055>062.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS