512
FXUS62 KGSP 300618
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
218 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Heat risk will steadily increase through the week, with heat
indices likely exceeding 100 degrees across much of the Piedmont
and foothills, especially by mid to late week. Daily thunderstorms
will also be possible across the mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Heat risk will steadily increase through the week,
with heat indices likely exceeding 100 degrees across much of
the Piedmont and foothills, especially by mid to late week. Daily
thunderstorms will also be possible across the mountains.

Deep anticyclone and associated upper ridge over the MS and TN
Valleys will continue to propagate eastward through the workweek and
set up shop over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday and
Thursday, while remaining in place through late week. Anomalously
warm thicknesses will support prolonged heat from midweek into
the the Independence Day Holiday Weekend. Expect daily afternoon
highs to be in the mid to upper 90s by Wednesday and Thursday, with
upper 90s to near 100 Friday into the holiday weekend. Mountain
Valleys will climb into the low to mid 90s.

The one caveat into the forecast will be how high heat indices
can potentially reach and whether or not multiple days of Heat
Advisories will be needed. With drier air aloft and very well
mixed boundary layers on the hottest days during the forecast
period, dewpoints likely mix out into the low to mid 60s at peak
heating each day. Dewpoints play a critical role into how high heat
indices can reach and the current forecast suggests that values
will struggle to reach Advisory criteria, but conditions will still
pose an elevated heat risk, especially considering that many people
will likely be outside for the upcoming holiday weekend. Those
with outdoor plans, including holiday and recreation, should
prepare for several days of elevated heat risk. Stay hydrated,
take frequent breaks in air-conditioned or shaded areas, and never
leave children or pets unattended in vehicles.

Daily afternoon convection is still in play for the mountains where
terrain enhancement will help to initiate isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Only very isolated convection
may slip east of the mountains, but the overall expectation is for
this activity to stay mostly confined to the mountains. The upper
ridge shows signs of gradually breaking down late weekend into early
next week, which would support a more convectively active setup
during this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry and mostly VFR conditions will prevail
through the forecast period, with lingering VFR convective debris
over the next few hours. Another round of mountain valley fog/low
stratus will give KAVL the potential to see fog and low stratus
this morning, so kept the TEMPO for MVFR fog, IFR SCT IFR stratus,
and MVFR cig. Any fog and low stratus that develops will dissipate
shortly after daybreak. SHRA/TSRA will develop over the mountains
this afternoon and kept the PROB30 for TSRA and associated
restrictions from 20Z-24Z at KAVL as a result, while the rest of
the terminals are expected to remain dry with only VFR afternoon
cu and some convective debris. Winds are forecast to flow out of
the ENE/NE through the period with a sporadic toggle out of the
ESE at times at 4-8 kts. Winds at KAVL will pick up out of the NNW
during the afternoon with some variability. Lingering convective
debris is possible during the evening and another round of mountain
valley fog/low stratus can`t be ruled out overnight tonight.

Outlook: Diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly
across the mountains through the workweek. Mountain valley fog/low
stratus will be possible each morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 07-02

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      93 1970     65 1943     70 2018     44 1988
                1954
                1931
   KCLT     101 1931     64 1943     76 1991     56 2008
                                        1970
                                        1931
   KGSP     101 1954     66 1943     77 1931     53 1899



RECORDS FOR 07-03

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      93 1970     65 1988     70 2018     50 2008
                1897                    1931        1937
                                                    1932
   KCLT      99 1931     70 1988     76 1925     56 2010
   KGSP      99 2016     70 1988     77 1925     56 1984
                1970
                1953



RECORDS FOR 07-04

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      97 1948     68 1976     70 2016     51 1986
   KCLT      99 1993     70 1968     76 1993     55 1933
                1955
   KGSP     100 1993     70 1988     75 2018     58 2021
                                                    1996
                                                    1933

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

CAC