229
FXUS61 KBGM 301630
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1230 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Upgraded the extreme heat watch to a warning for Wednesday
through Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heat and humidity becomes unhealthy and dangerous in some areas
for the rest of this week.

2) Several rounds of scattered thunderstorms could occur through
the week and into the weekend. Severe weather and locally heavy
rainfall and flooding will be possible within the favorable
warm and humid conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A extreme heat warning has been issued for the entire region
with significant changes to the model guidance and forecast
temperatures. Temperatures in the upper 90s and even a few 100
degree reading will be possible in the urban valleys across the
region. The only caveat will be the potential for convection
over the coming days that could ease the heat. Today, we are
seeing this happen with remnants of an MCS this morning
providing clouds over central NY and limiting heating, and
another complex dropping out of southern Ontario this afternoon
that will further limit heating.

Weds- Thurs are looking like the hottest days of the week, with
enough of the sensitive demographic areas (cities and deep
valleys) still within the crosshairs of extreme heat criteria in
the 105 to 110 degree range. Friday will be a little cooler, but
likely the urban area could still see 105 degree heat indices.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

Ring of fire weather pattern over the coming days as we will be
close to the periphery of the upper ridge. Several embedded
perturbations associated with prior upstream convection will be
the kickers as they round the upper ridge. Our fate on
thunderstorms will depending on how strong and amplified the
ridge becomes this week.

For today, a severe thunderstorm watch is looking likely across
portions of central NY as a strong MCS is dropping out of
Ontario, Canada early this afternoon. Strong damaging winds will
be the main threat with this MCS, but can`t rule out an isolated
tornado and hail as well. Also, although portions of the region
are in a Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday, it
is possible that this area gets expanded upon and could turn
into a slight risk, as the upper ridge may level out some
tomorrow. Surface based CAPE values are well outside the norm
for the Northeast over the next couple days and shear is
sufficient to develop and maintain severe weather. Excessive
rainfall is also possible with diffluent thickness fields over
our area angling back toward the moisture axis surging in from
the Ohio Valley. Upstream MCS turning through the Great Lakes
over the ridge like we are seeing this afternoon could be the
story over the coming days, so multiple rounds of thunderstorms
will be possible. Due to the extreme instability for this
region, even lasting into the nighttime hours, the potential for
a long lasting MCS or Derecho exists for somewhere in the
Northeast U.S. in the coming days, but at this time, it is not
possible to pin down timing or location, but this will be
something to monitor.

Forecasters will be monitoring upstream thunderstorm complexes
over the coming days and confidence will increase for severe
weather when we see a long lived MCS pushing across southern
Ontario, Canada, such as the case today.

Some relief appears on the horizon after Thursday as the flow aloft
turns more westerly and then pivots into more of a flat trough for
the weekend which should bring increased cloud cover, some cooling
and more unsettled showery conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions across the area today as a strong high pressure
system will be in control of the weather pattern.

A shortwave trough is modeled to ripple through the edge of the
high, bringing a chance for thunderstorms across portions of
the area, especially east of I-81, late this morning into the
afternoon hours. Model guidance remains uncertain as to timing
and location of the storms, so the highest confidence we can
exude in the TAFs is a PROB30 group for TSRA at SYR and RME.
Storms may pop up across other portions of the area, but
confidence in their development remains too low to include at
any of the other TAF sites.

Guidance is starting to hint at the possibility of some patchy
fog and MVFR or lower restrictions at ELM/ITH/RME, but
confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time.

Outlook:

Wednesday through Saturday...Mostly VFR, but intermittent
restrictions will be possible with isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms each afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Current High Temperature Records:

6/30: BGM - 92 (1964), SYR - 94 (1971), AVP - 97 (1964)
7/1: BGM - 90 (2018), SYR - 94 (2018), AVP - 95 (2018)
7/2: BGM - 92 (1966), SYR - 96 (1963), AVP - 98 (1966)

Forecasts for 7/1 and 7/2 are at or near the daily records.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Friday
     for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Friday
     for NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044-045-055-056.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JAB/MPK
AVIATION...JTC
CLIMATE...MDP