082
FXUS64 KEPZ 300434
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1034 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1010 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

 - Storm chances will be limited to areas east of the US-54
   corridor through the week.

 - Elevated fire weather conditions expected for the Gila through
   Wednesday as very dry air moves in.

 - Mainly dry and hotter for the holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1010 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

A stagnant weather pattern is expected for much of the week with
strong high pressure aloft over the Ohio Valley and troughing over
the Northwest. In between these two features will be a
subtropical moisture plume set up over eastern NM and west TX.
Areas E of the US-54 corridor will keep slight rain/storm chances
through Thu with best chances (20-30%) over Hudspeth County.
Gusty outflows and blowing dust from the east will remain the
primary hazards for the El Paso area, but with low impacts. Areas
to the north and west stay dry and somewhat breezy into midweek
under SW flow aloft. Very dry air pushes into western NM for
Wed/Thu as weak shortwaves move through the Four Corners.

The moisture plume fizzles out late in the week as the upper high
begins to re-establish near the Four Corners. The exact placement
and strength of the high will determine what our storm chances will
be, but area mountains should be favored. Most of the area should be
dry and hot for the holiday weekend with highs climbing to near
or above 100F for the lowlands. Outside of outflows, winds will be
generally light into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1010 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Light SHRA persist SE of KELP tonight with a 10-20% chance of
development near the site around 9z. The other terminals should
remain dry for Tue. Isolated showers form near or east of KELP
during the afternoon. Outflow gusts to 30kts and BLDU may be
produced by convection from the east later in the period. Winds
AOB 10kts tonight from SW then occasional gusts to 20kts during
the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions for Gila
National Forest on Tuesday with southwest winds 10-20 mph and Min
RH around 15%. Fuel moisture is currently at climatological peak
dryness and ongoing drought across western New Mexico has ERCs
above the 90th percentile. Wildfire growth will be possible next
few days, evident with the Sacaton Fire being visible on
satellite.

Elevated fire weather conditions will continue across Southwest
New Mexico through the rest of the week, with little to no rain
chances. Winds decrease slightly Wednesday/Thursday, though
further drying this week will lead to single-digit RH across Gila
NF. More favorable moisture will exist further east across West
Texas and Eastern New Mexico, where isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible for Lincoln National Forest
Thursday into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  75  95  73  97 /  10  10  10  10
Sierra Blanca            66  89  64  90 /  20  30  30  20
Las Cruces               69  94  67  95 /   0  10  10  10
Alamogordo               70  94  68  95 /   0  10  10  10
Cloudcroft               53  71  51  72 /   0  20  10  10
Truth or Consequences    69  95  67  95 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              62  87  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   67  97  66  98 /   0  10   0   0
Lordsburg                66  94  64  95 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       75  94  73  95 /  10  10  10  10
Dell City                69  94  66  94 /  10  30  30  20
Fort Hancock             72  95  70  96 /  20  30  30  20
Loma Linda               68  88  66  89 /  10  20  10  10
Fabens                   72  96  71  97 /  10  20  20  10
Santa Teresa             72  93  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
White Sands HQ           76  95  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
Jornada Range            69  94  67  95 /   0  10  10   0
Hatch                    70  97  67  98 /   0  10   0   0
Columbus                 73  97  72  98 /   0  10  10   0
Orogrande                69  93  67  93 /  10  10  10  10
Mayhill                  58  82  55  83 /   0  40  10  20
Mescalero                56  82  54  83 /   0  20  10  10
Timberon                 53  80  52  80 /  10  20  10  10
Winston                  58  87  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                66  93  64  93 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                65  94  63  95 /   0  10   0   0
Lake Roberts             56  88  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   63  91  61  91 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    63  93  60  94 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               60  89  58  90 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  64  90  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   66  94  64  95 /   0  10   0   0
Hachita                  66  93  64  94 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           67  93  65  95 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               63  87  62  89 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson