006
FXUS63 KGLD 292156
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
356 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances return later Tuesday afternoon into the
  evening. Damaging winds will be possible, especially across
  northwest KS into southwest NE.

- A mainly dry period is expected Thursday and Friday before
  another chance for storms Saturday.

- It will be warm through the entire week into next weekend. The
  warmest day appears to be Friday, when highs nearing 100 will
  be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1252 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

A cold front will stall tonight across northwest KS into central
Nebraska. A somewhat cooler and drier air-mass will be located
across western NE into northwest KS and eastern CO. East of the
front a moist and warm air-mass will remain in place along with
breezy south to southwest winds. Conditions will remain dry
across the tri-state area through Tuesday morning, with any
convection along the front remaining to our northeast across
Nebraska.

During the day Tuesday, surface low pressure will deepen across
eastern CO in response to a shortwave trough approaching the
area from the west. The aforementioned stalled front will begin
to lift back to the north-northwest as the low deepens. By late
in the afternoon this front will have lifted well north into
western Nebraska. South winds will return moisture/humidity to
all of the area, with surface dew points generally in the lower
60s by late afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and the
increase in moisture will lead to at least a moderately unstable
atmosphere. Strong shear will be in place across far northwest
KS much of eastern CO into NE. As large scale ascent overspreads
the area late in the afternoon from the approaching wave, a
cluster of thunderstorms should initiate on the nose of steep
0-3km low-level lapse rates across west central KS. These will
quickly track northeastward across the northwest KS counties
into NE during the early to mid-evening hours. Strong and potentially
damaging winds appears to be the main severe weather threat. A
few instances of hail will also be possible. These should be out
of the area by later Tuesday night

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1157 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Scattered convection looks to remain possible Wednesday. Then as
upper level ridging noses northward Thursday into Friday, a lull
in convection appears to occur. By Saturday a strong shortwave
is slated to cross the Northern Plains. Our area will be on the
southern flank of the stronger forcing, but there will be some
chance for storms as a cold front settles southward through the
area. Upper level ridging then begins to build northward Sunday
into the first of next week. It will be quite warm through the
period, with the hottest day slated to be Friday, when highs in
the upper 90s to near 100 are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 351 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period for
KGLD and KMCK. Winds are forecast to be shifty through most of
the period, and gusts at least 15-20 kts are expected through
the period. Afternoon showers and storms are also possible for
the next few days.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LBF (Taylor)
LONG TERM...LBF (Taylor)
AVIATION...CA