432
FXUS63 KGLD 300610
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1210 AM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures are likely to persist through the
  remainder of the week.

- Scattered storms expected today and Wednesday. A few severe
  storms are possible on both days, mainly ~3-10 PM MDT.
  Localized wind gusts up to 70 mph are the primary threat. A
  few instances of large hail possible. Low confidence in
  thunderstorm coverage.

- A mainly dry period is expected Thursday and Friday before
  another chance for storms on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1252 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

A cold front will stall tonight across northwest KS into
central Nebraska. A somewhat cooler and drier air-mass will be
located across western NE into northwest KS and eastern CO. East
of the front a moist and warm air-mass will remain in place
along with breezy south to southwest winds. Conditions will
remain dry across the tri-state area through Tuesday morning,
with any convection along the front remaining to our northeast
across Nebraska.

During the day Tuesday, surface low pressure will deepen across
eastern CO in response to a shortwave trough approaching the
area from the west. The aforementioned stalled front will begin
to lift back to the north-northwest as the low deepens. By late
in the afternoon this front will have lifted well north into
western Nebraska. South winds will return moisture/humidity to
all of the area, with surface dew points generally in the lower
60s by late afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and the
increase in moisture will lead to at least a moderately unstable
atmosphere. Strong shear will be in place across far northwest
KS much of eastern CO into NE. As large scale ascent overspreads
the area late in the afternoon from the approaching wave, a
cluster of thunderstorms should initiate on the nose of steep
0-3km low-level lapse rates across west central KS. These will
quickly track northeastward across the northwest KS counties
into NE during the early to mid-evening hours. Strong and
potentially damaging winds appears to be the main severe weather
threat. A few instances of hail will also be possible. These
should be out of the area by later Tuesday night

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1157 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Scattered convection looks to remain possible Wednesday. Then
as upper level ridging noses northward Thursday into Friday, a
lull in convection appears to occur. By Saturday a strong
shortwave is slated to cross the Northern Plains. Our area will
be on the southern flank of the stronger forcing, but there will
be some chance for storms as a cold front settles southward
through the area. Upper level ridging then begins to build
northward Sunday into the first of next week. It will be quite
warm through the period, with the hottest day slated to be
Friday, when highs in the upper 90s to near 100 are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1155 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Storms could potentially affect either/both terminals this
afternoon and evening, mainly between ~22-02Z. Low confidence in
thunderstorm location and coverage. VFR conditions will
otherwise rule through the 06Z TAF period. Light northerly or
variable winds are expected to prevail through sunrise. Low
confidence in wind speed/direction during the day. Broadly
speaking, expect that winds will shift to the E during the late
morning and SE to S during the afternoon. Gusty/erratic winds
can be expected in vicinity of any storms.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LBF/Taylor
LONG TERM...LBF/Taylor
AVIATION...Vincent