755
FXUS63 KSGF 300800
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
300 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory in effect through Friday as daily heat indices
  climb to around 100 degrees. Little nighttime relief with lows
  in the middle to upper 70s. These conditions may linger
  through the Independence Day weekend, so those with outdoor
  plans to celebrate the holiday should make efforts to have
  cooling and hydration options readily available.

- Isolated thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon/evening
  starting Thursday. Currently, coverage/probability is less
  than 30 percent and confined to locations east of Highway 65.
  There is potential for localized storms with microburst
  winds, but confidence is low at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows the area on the western periphery of a high
pressure cell/mid level ridge located over Kentucky and
Tennessee. A warm and humid airmass remains in place across the
area as 850mb temps were measured at 23C. While a 60kt low level
jet was located over central Kansas, we were on the eastern
edge of this with wind gusts around 20mph at times. Surface
temps remained in the upper 70s with dews in the low 70s,
creating a warm and humid night.

Heat Advisory: The mid level ridge will largely remain in the
same place today before a slight eastward movement Wednesday.
Mostly clear skies will allow for strong heating and given the
warm start and mean 850mb temps around 23C across the region,
highs will most likely be similar to previous days with most
areas around 90. There will likely be a few areas that again
reach the lower 90s. Like previous days, surface dews will most
likely stay at least in the 70-75 degree range, even with day
time mixing. This will create heat indicies in the upper 90s to
low 100s today and Wednesday. A Heat Advisory remains in effect.
Wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph will likely be attained again today
for locations west of Highway 65 as the low level jet gets mixed
down during the morning and afternoon hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Heat Advisory: Ensemble guidance continues to suggest
that this blocking ridge will remain in place just east of the
area through Friday with some potential through Saturday. The
Heat Advisory remains in effect through Friday.  We will
continue to evaluate for any additional extensions into Saturday.
We will likely see dews in the 70s through the week which will
help keep heat indicies around 100 degrees. The NWS Heat Risk
tool has the entire area remaining in the Major category
through this week and even Saturday which generally equates to
heat related impacts affecting anyone without cooling/hydration
as well as health systems and industries. This will be a
prolonged period of excessive heat heading into the holiday
weekend therefore those spending time outdoors will need to
take proper precautions.

Low Rain/Storm Chances: There continues to be a signal that
enough moisture may be present for some pulse/isolated afternoon
storms Thursday into the weekend however confidence in coverage
of any precip is still low. An inspection of ensemble mean
soundings suggest increasing moisture aloft which would favor an
environment for updrafts/storm potential in the afternoons if
convective temps can be reached. These pulse storms most likely
would not be widespread however localized microburst winds are
common in these setups. Will continue to monitor this
potential, especially with numerous outdoor activities this
weekend. Precip chances generally remain less than 30 percent at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

VFR through the TAF period. Southerly winds continue, with
20-25kt gusts returning again between 12-14Z. Overnight LLWS
35-45kts will be strongest furthest west (KJLN) and will also
dissipate after 12-14Z as the nocturnal LLJ fades. Only other
forecast item of note is that it is a little hazy in the upper
levels due to Saharan dust, and although it may not be affecting
visibility at the surface, it may be noticeable at higher
levels of the atmosphere.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Camden