767
FXUS64 KJAN 300520 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1220 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat stress this week, with afternoon heat index
  values generally between 105F-110F.

- There is a Marginal risk for isolated severe storms across portions
  of east MS and southeast MS late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
  evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Tonight through next Monday...

Another round of quiet weather is in the forecast for tonight as the
high pressure system aloft remains east of the southeast CONUS. Sky
cover will be generally clear across the area heading into the
overnight period. This, combined with light southerly winds, will
allow for radiational cooling to occur. Because of this, nighttime
lows will dip into the mid 70s areawide. Tuesday morning will start
off relatively quiet under mostly sunny skies. By late Tuesday
afternoon into late Tuesday evening, chances for showers and storms
will start to increase across portions of east MS and southeast MS.
A few strong to marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out.
Primary hazard will be damaging winds. Rain and storm chances will
increase in coverage on Wednesday followed by decent chances for
showers through the late week and into the Independence Day weekend.
This is due to several disturbances caught up in easterly flow
aloft, on the southern periphery of the aforementioned high aloft,
moving east to west through the forecast area.

As mentioned in previous discussions, dangerous heat stress will
continue to be the primary focus of the long term forecast period.
Tuesday and Wednesday will see daytime highs peak in the mid to
upper 90s areawide, with temperatures peaking into the mid 90s
Thursday into the weekend. The ongoing daytime heating combined with
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will cause heat indices to exceed
above 105 degrees across much of our CWA. Wednesday will have the
highest heat index readings with values peaking around 110 degrees.
A "Heat Advisory" remains in affect for our entire forecast area,
including portions of southeast AR and all of our northeast LA
parishes, until 9 pm Tuesday. Later tonight, there is a
possibility that the Heat Advisory will likely be extended into
Wednesday.

With shower and storm chances forecasted to increase across much of
the area each afternoon after Tuesday, some areas could see heat
indices drop just below 105 degree criteria. Regardless, confidence
in indices between 105F-110F remains high enough that the areawide
"Elevated" risk for dangerous heat will continue to be advertised
through this week and into the 4th of July weekend. Rain chances
will continue by next week Monday. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

VFR conditions wl prevail through the TAF period. There is a low
chance that TSRA wl come in vcty of MEI-PIB-HBG 22-02Z. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       76  94  75  94 /  10  40  10  10
Meridian      77  95  75  95 /  10  30  10  20
Vicksburg     77  94  76  93 /  10  50  20  10
Hattiesburg   76  93  75  94 /  30  40  10  20
Natchez       77  94  75  94 /  10  80  10  10
Greenville    77  96  77  95 /  10  20  10  10
Greenwood     77  99  76  97 /  10  30  10  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

/CR/22