656
FXUS63 KDLH 292346
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
646 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 4 PM with a
  second line of storms likely to redevelop and cross the BWCA
  tonight.

- High heat and humidity this afternoon with heat index values
  over 100 degrees prompting Extreme Heat Warnings and
  Advisories.

- Dangerous swimming conditions persist along Lake Superior
  beaches due to strong rip currents through this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

For the rest of the day, our primary concerns will be the
oppressive heat and the severe weather threat. Extreme Heat
Warnings and Heat Advisories remain in effect for the southern
half of the Northland. We are noting that CAMS guidance is not
doing well, but there is plenty of CAPE with storms riding along
a warm front. In addition, rich PWATs of 2.4+ inches giving
heavy rainfall with warm sector inflow providing dewpoints in
the 80s. This incredible moisture is pushing heat index values
well past the 100 degree mark for many of our southern
communities. Meanwhile, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in
effect until 4 PM for all of northeast Minnesota.

The current storm moving through St. Louis County presents
itself very similar to the radar presentation of the 1999 BWCA
blowdown storm with similar timing too! Thus far, this storm
hasn`t been too effective in bringing down winds to the surface,
at least in the last 3 hours; however, the environment over NE
Minnesota is rich as a little clearing occurred to allow the
storm to become more surface based increasing the threat for
winds as it moves through the Arrowhead. Similarly, the storm`s
southern end also is beginning to take on a identity of its own
and should run east into the higher richer moisture. Should be
an active afternoon. In addition to the storm threat, there is a
wake low that is causing really strong winds in the wake of the
convective line which could gust to 50 to 60 mph!

As we move into the evening and overnight hours, the threat for
severe weather continues. Models continue to indicate that
redevelopment is likely this evening causing a second line of
storms to cross through the BWCA. Given the extreme instability
and moisture in place, these storms will pose a substantial risk
for large hail, damaging winds, and intense downpours capable
of localized flooding. Temperatures tonight will provide little
relief from the heat, with lows struggling to fall below 70
degrees in many locations.

For tomorrow, a cold front will slowly work eastward across the
region. Heat Advisories will linger for our northwest Wisconsin
counties as temperatures once again climb into the 90s, though
drier air will slowly filter into Minnesota. Instability will
pool ahead of the advancing front, bringing another round of
strong to severe thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon
hours across northwest Wisconsin. Large hail and damaging winds
will once again be the primary hazards.

Looking ahead to Wednesday, the active summer pattern will
persist. We will maintain southwesterly flow aloft as a
shortwave passes through the region. This will bring additional
chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which
could be strong given the lingering instability. Temperatures
will remain quite warm, generally in the 80s to near 90 degrees,
ensuring the humid feel sticks around the area.

For Thursday through the upcoming weekend, broad ridging will
remain anchored to our east with troughing to the west. This
setup keeps the Northland in a warm and active southwest flow
regime. Expect daily chances for showers and thunderstorms,
particularly during the afternoon and evening hours. High
temperatures will remain somewhat steady in the 80s. While not
every day will be a washout, anyone with outdoor holiday weekend
plans should monitor the forecast closely.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 639 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Another round of storms is beginning up near INL and is expected
to affect the terminal within the next hour. More storms in the
Dakotas will make their way east to the Northland later tonight,
leading to MVFR ceilings and visibilities. Strong wind gusts and
hail are possible with these storms overnight. Ceilings will
drop to IFR at DLH and some fog is possible as well to move back
in from Lake Superior, but confidence was too low to include in
the TAF. Fog will likely be added back for the 06Z set once
confidence is higher.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect until 2 PM this
afternoon for western Lake Superior, while a Small Craft
Advisory runs until 10 PM tonight due to gusty northeast winds
up to 30 knots and elevated waves. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and again tonight,
posing a risk for large hail, gale force wind gusts, and
frequent lightning. Winds will become southwesterly at 10 to 15
knots on Tuesday with waves subsiding. Expect additional
thunderstorm chances through midweek.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain low through the forecast
period due to high humidity and multiple rounds of widespread
rainfall. Minimum relative humidity values will largely remain
above 50 percent today, though Tuesday could see values drop
into the 35 to 45 percent range. Winds will be gusty out of the
southeast today at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph, shifting
to the southwest on Tuesday. Hot and humid conditions will
continue through the middle of the week.


See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ037.
     Extreme Heat Warning until midnight CDT tonight for MNZ038.
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     WIZ001.
     Extreme Heat Warning until midnight CDT tonight for WIZ006-007.
     Heat Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for WIZ001.
     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for WIZ002>004-008-009.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ121-140>148-
     150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     LSZ140>145.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...Wolfe
FIRE WEATHER...Wolfe