047
FXUS63 KTOP 301057
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
557 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The hot and humid conditions persist through the holiday weekend
  with afternoon heat indices from 100 to 110, peaking between
  Thursday and Saturday.

- Slight chances for scattered showers and storms return tonight and again
  Wednesday evening into Thursday morning over portions of north
  central and northeast Kansas. Severe probabilities are generally
  low.

- The July 4th holiday is looking more unsettled region wide as
  chances for strong storms are increasing Saturday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Ample high clouds are streaming northeast around the expansive high
pressure centered over the Ohio River Valley this morning. Cluster
of storms in western OK is expected to weaken in the form of
mid clouds as they enter central KS later this morning. Scattered
sprinkles cannot be ruled out in north central Kansas, but otherwise
dry weather ensues for much of the daytime period. Based on previous
obs the past few days and trends in short term models of higher
afternoon dewpoints, adjustments were made this afternoon through
Thursday for readings in the low 70s in the afternoon while high
temps are in the low to middle 90s. This should still result in peak
heat indices in the 100 to 105 range. Multiple, weak perturbations
eject into the western Kansas by this evening, generating potential
clusters of storms towards the high plains. Kept the slight chances
for storms to enter north central Kansas this evening, however most
CAMs weaken convection before they enter the forecast area overnight.
Gusty winds would be the main hazard with any updraft.

A similar scenario occurs Wednesday evening with high based storms
in western Kansas clustering to produce severe wind gusts before
weakening as they enter north central Kansas. Residual cloud cover
from these storms could hold highs back by a few degrees Wednesday
and Thursday with heat indices in the upper 90s over north central
areas. Heat indices near 105 are most likely in far eastern Kansas
where lesser cloud cover is anticipated. Mid level heights build
westward Friday and Saturday, signaling a higher likelihood for heat
indices around 110 degrees in the afternoon (<5 degree spread in the
25th to 75th percentile). Operational guidance and ensembles are
becoming more consistent in a northern stream shortwave trough
crossing the central plains Saturday evening. While clusters of
stronger storms are likely across the region, timing and locations of
these storms are still uncertain. This could very well impact
outdoor holiday activities so it`s important to check back throughout
the week for forecast updates. Sunday`s storm chances will be highly
dependent upon when and where storms form the prior evening.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 557 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

VFR at terminals with gusty south winds to near 30 kts in the
daytime period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Record Warmest Low Temperature


June 30
              Record (Year)            Forecast
Topeka          77 (1911, 1917, 1931
                    1933, 1970, 2020)     80
Concordia       79 (2011)                 79

July 1
              Record (Year)            Forecast
Topeka          82 (1933)                 78
Concordia       86 (1933)                 76

July 2
              Record (Year)            Forecast
Topeka          78 (1925)                 77
Concordia       78 (1974)                 74

July 3
              Record (Year)            Forecast
Topeka          79 (1911, 1999, 2012)     77
Concordia       80 (1934)                 74

July 4
              Record (Year)            Forecast
Topeka          81 (1911, 1969)           77
Concordia       82 (1934)                 75

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-
KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-
KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-
KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...22
AVIATION...22
CLIMATE...Flanagan/Griesemer