140
FXUS63 KICT 300747
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
247 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures and breezy conditions are forecast through
  the end of the week.

- Isolated storm chances are possible tonight as well as
  Wednesday evening. Widespread severe weather is not
  anticipated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Currently, broad ridging sits over the eastern CONUS with troughing
to our west. This has placed the Plains solidly in southwest flow,
driving our warm and dry pattern. At the surface, a low pressure
sits over the Northern Plains with a weak frontal boundary extending
into the Central High Plains. As we move through the day, an upper
level short wave will eject from the Rockies into the Northern
Plains. This will deepen the lee surface trough and strengthen the
associated dry line in western Kansas. Southerly winds will remain
gusty in response to the tight pressure gradient, with sustained
winds between 15-20 mph and gusts reaching 30-35 mph. Later this
afternoon and evening, convection is expected to develop along this
dryline, pushing east through the evening hours. A few storms, some
of them strong to severe, could impact our central Kansas counties
later this evening/into the overnight. The strongest storms would be
capable of some gusty winds and small hail.

A similar pattern is expected again for Wednesday evening as another
shortwave passes across the Rockies and into the Northern Plains.
This wave will be slightly further north and also weaker, thus the
confidence in storm coverage is lower. Convection will once again
develop over the Central High Plains along the lee trough and
progress eastward through the evening hours. A few storms could
nudge into central Kansas, with isolated severe not out of the
question. Then, a slight pattern change might be in store for the
end of the forecast period. Upper level flow looks to turn
northwesterly and as such, POPs increase slightly for Sunday into
early next week. Confidence remains low at this time as the flow
looks rather weak and ridging continues to dominate central portions
of the CONUS.

Afternoon highs are expected to reach into the lower to middle 90s
the next several days. However, model guidance has been overdoing
temperatures and underdoing dewpoints recently, so there remains
slight uncertainty on where temperatures will exactly max out. If
dewpoints continue reach into the middle 70s like the past couple
days, highs may be a degree or two lower. Regardless, with highs in
the 90s and dewpoints around 70 degrees, heat index values will
approach 105 degrees the next several days. A Heat Advisory remains
in effect today through Thursday. Heights will continue to increase
through the end of the week, indicating heat will continue to build
over the Sunflower State. By Friday and Saturday, highs will
approach 100 degrees for many across the forecast area. With the
pattern shift towards the end of the period, highs will be closer to
normal for Sunday into next week, topping out in the lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

A stout south-southwesterly low-level jet will support low-level
wind shear at about 1500-2000 ft AGL overnight for all TAF
sites. Otherwise, continued gusty south winds will persist
overnight through Tuesday, as lee troughing remains anchored
over the High Plains. By Tuesday evening, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected over portions of central and western
Kansas, ahead of a sharpening dryline. Covered this threat for
now with PROB30 groups at RSL and GBD.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...ADK