815
FXUS65 KBOI 300526
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
1126 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday
  afternoon afternoon and evening.

- Warmer and drier conditions Tuesday through Thursday.

- Trough passage on Friday could bring thunderstorms to central
  Idaho and breezy winds to the area.

- 4th of July looks dry with temperatures near normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday Night/...
Issued 215 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2026
Light showers will continue across the area through this
evening under lingering moisture and weak dynamics on the back
side of the departing low pressure system. As the upper level
support departs, skies are expected to clear overnight, allowing
temperatures to reach about 5 degrees below normal values.

A shortwave passage is on track for Tuesday afternoon and will
combine with residual low level moisture and weak instability to
support isolated thunderstorm development. High resolution
models indicate a few storms will initially develop across
Malheur and Baker County Tuesday afternoon before tracking
eastward into southwest Idaho during the late afternoon and
early evening hours. The main threats with these storms will be
gusty outflow winds and lightning.

By Wednesday, the shortwave exits to the east, bringing mostly
clear skies back to the region. Daytime heating will lead to
cumulus clouds developing over the higher terrain by the
afternoon. While most of the forecast area will remain dry,
isolated thunderstorms are possible (20% chance) along the
Idaho/Nevada border and across the central Idaho mountains where
moisture and instability remain sufficient. Temperatures will
gradually warm through the short term period, reaching the low
80s in the Western Snake River Basin by Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/...
Issued 215 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2026
Continued troughing will remain over the region Thursday and
Friday, with the last of the embedded shortwaves moving through
Thursday into Friday. This final push will bring isolated
showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain of SW Idaho,
and cooler than normal conditions through the end of the week.
Over the weekend, the Four Corners ridge look to intensify,
brining higher geopotential heights and rising maximum daily
temperatures. This will bring temperatures back up to near
normal. The timeliness of warming (but not too warm)
temperatures and dry conditions should make for a pleasant
Fourth of July. There is an outside chance (10-20% probability)
of temperatures exceeding 95 degrees on July 4th through the
lower Snake Plain. Ensembles hint that on Sunday and Monday, the
region will develop southwesterly flow aloft between weak
troughing moving into the Pacific NW and the persisting Four
Corners ridge. This would continue the warm trend, with showers
and thunderstorms coming back into the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday through Wednesday/...
Issued 1126 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2026
VFR. Isolated showers and thunderstorms Tue/PM, mainly over the ID W-
Central mtns and near the ID/NV border. Thunderstorms capable of 25
kt outflows. Surface winds: Light and variable overnight, then W-NW
8-12 kt Tue/PM. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 5-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Low chance of rain (<15%) Tue/PM. Surface winds: Light
and variable overnight/then NW 5-10 kt Tue/PM.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.

OR...None.

&&

$$

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AVIATION.....NF
SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....CH