910
FXUS66 KOTX 301151
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
451 AM PDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms in the Northern Mountains Tuesday afternoon and
  evening. Not as high a risk as yesterday.

- Warmer and drier for the end of the week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorm chances return across the Northern Mountains on
Tuesday, though risk is lower from yesterday. Cooler than
normal conditions continue through the week with isolated
mountain shower activity. By the weekend, a ridge will build
bringing temperatures back up to normal in time for the holiday
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday: Lingering showers from yesterday will remain over northeast
Washington and northern Idaho through this afternoon. The Northern
Mountains will see the most rainfall, with isolated additional
totals near a quarter inch. A small low will usher a shortwave
through the area tomorrow, bringing another more isolated round of
thunderstorms to the Northern Mountains (10 to 20 percent) midday
through the afternoon. RAP soundings show surface-based CAPE values
of 100-200 J/kg will exist alongside high PWATS (>0.65 inches)
and low storm motions. This environment is very similar to
yesterday: slow moving thunderstorms with heavy rainfall. Since
the Northern Mountains received 1 inch of rain or more in some
areas yesterday, antecedent conditions warrant close monitoring
for any localized urban or small stream flooding. Elsewhere, a
thermal trough will result in a tight east-west pressure
gradient along the Cascades, and will result in breezy winds
across the Cascade gaps each afternoon and evening.

Wednesday through Friday: Lower heights remain over the Inland
northwest through the rest of the work week but precipitation
activity will remain confined to the mountains. There are chances
for thunderstorms in the Northern Mountains through Friday, but due
to a ridge off the PNW coast slowly moving eastward, they decrease
in coverage and likelihood each day. This ridge will also result in
temperatures warming to the mid-70s, which is still below normal for
this time of year.

Holiday weekend: The trough previously meandering eastward along the
PNW coast will finally make its way inland, just in time for the
Fourth of July holiday. This will allow temperatures to rise and
moderate back to normal (80s to 90s). Skies look to be mostly clear,
and low temperatures will be in the 50s. High temperatures will rise
by Sunday, bringing widespread Minor HeatRisk with isolated Moderate
HeatRisk. Make sure to keep cool and hydrated. /AS

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs: A band of showers from Colville, southeast to Coeur
d`Alene will continue to lift northeast this morning. MVFR CIGS
associated with these showers otherwise VFR conditions are
forecast for the TAF sites through 12z Wednesday. A deep marine
layer west of the Cascades with satellite showing stratus even
spilling over the Cascade crest in Chelan county will promote
breezy northwest winds at KEAT today with gusts around 25 kts.
Drier air moving in behind a weak mid level front responsible
for the morning showers will begin to move into Central and
Eastern WA this afternoon which will result in less
shower/thunderstorm activity compared to yesterday with isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon expected to be confined to near
the Canadian border.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Alternate scenario is the moist boundary layer over Eastern WA
combined with low level upslope flow brings more MVFR stratus
development this morning, expanding into KGEG/KSFF. HREF is
carrying a 20-30 percent chance of this occurring. JW

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        70  50  73  49  75  50 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  70  51  73  49  75  52 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Pullman        69  44  70  44  73  47 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       77  53  78  52  81  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       69  44  75  44  76  46 /  70  30  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      66  48  72  47  73  50 /  70  10  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        68  48  72  47  73  50 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     80  48  80  49  81  51 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      79  55  79  55  80  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           77  53  79  52  80  54 /  30  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$