739
FXHW60 PHFO 300711
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
911 PM HST Mon Jun 29 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will persist into the
upcoming weekend. Bands of low clouds and showers will be at times
be carried in on the trades, focused primarily over windward and
mauka areas during the overnight and early morning hours. Another
such band is expected to reach the islands Tuesday night.
Additionally, humidity levels will rise, bringing muggier
conditions across the island chain through the middle of this
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...
Scattered showers continue this evening along windward Big
Island, Maui, and Molokai. Winds have decreased since the
afternoon, with sustained winds averaging 5 to 15 mph. The latest
guidance is consistent with earlier runs, and no changes are
needed at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 425 PM HST Mon Jun 29 2026

No major changes to the forecast with the afternoon package.
The most recent moisture area moved through the islands this
morning, bringing some clouds and showers to the region. This
afternoon, more typical clouds and showers are being carried in on
the trade wind flow.

A 1038 mb high pressure system remains far north-northeast of the
islands this afternoon. This high is expected to remain nearly
stationary over the next couple of days, and then slowly move to
the west, weakening a little as it moves due north of the islands
during the second half of the week. The resultant pressure
gradient will maintain moderate to locally breezy trade winds into
the weekend.

Clouds and showers will ride in on the trades, focusing the wetter
weather over the windward sides of the islands. However at times,
these typical showers will be carried to leeward areas. As is
typical in this pattern, afternoon clouds and showers are possible
over the kona slopes of the Big Island. Another noticeable batch
of moisture, similar to what moved through the islands last night
and this morning, is about 360 miles northeast of the islands
this afternoon, and this will likely move into the islands
tomorrow night.

Dewpoints have reached into the lower 70s today, which will make
it feel more muggy than normal across the state. These elevated
dewpoints are expected to continue into the middle of the week,
until dropping back into the upper 60s late Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
A brief break between passing low level troughs will produce
mostly VFR conditions across the Hawaiian Islands through Tuesday
morning. The next trough will move through the islands from the
east from Tuesday night through Wednesday, expect increasing
shower activity with periods of MVFR conditions, and mountain
obscurations.

AIRMET Tango is also posted for tempo moderate leeward turbulence
below 8000 feet for all islands due to the breezy trade winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 425 PM HST Mon Jun 29 2026

An area of surface high pressure will remain centered well north
of the Hawaiian Islands this week and help drive moderate to
fresh trades trades across the region. The Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) has been trimmed back to the typical windy waters around
Maui County and the Big Island with trade winds easing slightly
overnight into Tuesday. However, the SCA advisory will likely need
to be extended for these areas through much of this week with the
persistent trades.

The current moderate, long-period south swell (nearly 3 feet, 15
seconds on offshore buoys) will begin to slowly fade tonight and
continue to decline through midweek, leading to decreasing south
and west shore surf through Wednesday. A small bump in surf along
south-facing shores is possible Thursday into Friday with the
arrival of a small, long-period south swell, but another larger
long-period south swell energy pulse should arrive by late
Saturday.

Surf along east-facing shores will remain rough and choppy through
the week with moderate to fresh trades in place. Nearly flat surf
heights will persist along north facing shores.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-
Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM UPDATE...Parker
DISCUSSION...M Ballard
AVIATION...Bohlin
MARINE...Quesada