433
FXUS62 KTAE 300724
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
324 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

- Dangerous heat is expected again today with heat index values of
  105-112, increasing the potential for heat stress and
  illnesses. Stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in air-
  conditioned places if possible.

- Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are possible this
  afternoon. Strong, potentially damaging wind gusts, locally
  heavy downpours, and frequent lightning are possible in the
  strongest storms. Have multiple ways to receive warnings, and
  remember: When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors!

- Dangerous heat may return for the holiday weekend again,
  increasing the potential for heat stress and illnesses.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

An outflow boundary from last evening`s storms over east central
Georgia has made it to roughly an Albany to Mayo line early this
morning. This feature, combined with a weakening "cold" front and
the afternoon sea breeze, will yield numerous showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. The greatest chance will be across the
FL counties as well as western Georgia into southeast Alabama. Some
of the storms today could be strong to severe. Our environment will
be highly unstable, and some mid-level dry air will help aid in the
development of strong downbursts, especially with very steep low-
level lapse rates. DCAPE will reach about 1000-1300 J/kg, which is
very high. These will also get a boost from mid-level flow around 20-
25 kt, which will add a little extra wind potential. Thus, damaging
wind gusts are possible in the storms this afternoon as they move
west-southwestward. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined areas
west of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers in a Marginal Risk of
severe weather (level 1 of 5), though the severe potential does
exist even outside this risk area today.

Outside of storms (or before storms develop), heat will be a concern
yet again today. Temperatures should reach the mid to possibly upper
90s before storms develop this afternoon. And, with more moisture in
place, especially over southern and western areas, dew points won`t
mix out as efficiently as previous days. Thus, heat index values of
108-112 are expected again today in the Florida Panhandle and
western Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and far southwest Georgia. A
Heat Advisory is in effect for these areas for this afternoon. Once
storms develop, then the concern switches from heat to wind and
lightning. Outside of the advisory area, drier air behind the front
and outflow boundary will help dew points mix out a bit more, but it
will still be very hot with highs in the mid 90s and heat index
values of 100-107.

Storms will move out into the Gulf and begin to weaken after sunset.
Lows will be in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

The front slips south of our area Wednesday, bringing drier air to
our region. Now, we will still be quite hot thanks to the influence
of the strong, sprawling ridge over the eastern US, but we won`t be
as humid. Highs Wednesday through Friday will be in the mid to upper
90s, but heat index values will be more in the 100-105 range. Rain
chances will also be lower each afternoon given a less active sea
breeze.

Over the holiday weekend, rain chances will increase again as
moisture returns to the area. Our typical summertime storms will
flare up again along the sea breeze each afternoon. There`s still
some concern for heat heading into the weekend with heat index
values increasing again to the 105-110 range, potentially posing a
major heat risk again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through this afternoon. TSRA will
redevelop this afternoon, with the highest chances at DHN, TLH,
and ECP. These storms will move from NE to SW. VCTS have been
added for these sites, with TEMPOs at ECP and DHN where higher
confidence exists. At ABY and VLD, lower chances for TSRA lead to
only PROB30s for now. Storms could contain strong, erratic wind
gusts this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Gentle northwesterly flow today will become easterly tonight as a
front slips south over the marine area and high pressure builds to
the north. Strong thunderstorms will be possible over the marine
areas late this afternoon into the evening, possibly producing
strong wind gusts, frequent lightning, and a couple waterspouts.
Light to gentle easterly winds continue through midweek before
turning more southerly and southwesterly late in the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Transport winds will primarily be out of the east to northeast
around 5-10 mph today, though turning more southerly near the coast
this afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms will develop this afternoon. Strong, erratic wind
gusts, possibly severe, are possible with the storms. This is
especially true along and west of the Apalachicola and Flint Rivers,
though even areas east could see strong wind gusts in and near
storms. Outside of storms, dispersions will be good. Dangerous heat
is also expected with highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat index
values of 105-112.

Drier air moves in for Wednesday and Thursday with RHs dropping into
the 30s by Thursday. Rain chances will decrease as well.
Temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 90s in the afternoons,
but heat index values will be closer to 100-105. Transport winds
will be northeasterly around 10 mph both days with high dispersions
expected both days, mainly away from the coast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Some locally heavy rainfall is possible today in thunderstorms,
possibly producing a quick couple inches of rain is localized spots.
While flash flooding is not expected, some nuisance flooding of poor-
drainage areas is possible under the heaviest storms. Action stages
continue on the lower Choctawhatchee and Ochlockonee basins. No
additional river flooding is expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   96  77  96  75 /  60  20   0   0
Panama City   94  77  93  77 /  70  40   0   0
Dothan        95  75  95  74 /  50  20  10   0
Albany        96  75  95  72 /  30  10   0   0
Valdosta      96  73  96  70 /  40  10   0   0
Cross City    96  73  95  72 /  70  20  10   0
Apalachicola  93  79  92  79 /  60  30   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today to 6 PM EDT /5 PM
     CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>018-027-108-112-114-115-118-
     127-326-426.

GA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening for
     GAZ155-156.

AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM CDT this afternoon
     for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Young